By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
12:38 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
AUSTRALIA is on track to defy the world and avoid a recession in 2009, beginning a recovery early next year, in the assessment of more than 20 leading economists.
The Age's half-yearly economic survey predicts an economic contraction of a mere 0.1 per cent this year followed by a rebound of 0.6 per cent in the year to June 2010.
The forecast allows Australia to avoid the two consecutive quarters of negative growth commonly taken to define a recession, although it allows for that possibility if the recession is mild.
It coincides with news that tax breaks and the end of the financial year pushed sales of cars, buses, trucks and utes towards an all-time high in June, with sales exceeding 100,000 in June for only the fourth time.
"The surge is directly attributable to the budget tax break," said Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief Andrew McKellar. The budget measure allows small businesses to write off 50 per cent of the cost of vehicles bought by December.
"Business purchases are up 12 per cent on a year ago, and business purchases of utes, vans and light trucks are up 27 per cent," he said. "As a result of the budget we've probably sold an extra 10,000 over three months."
The figures follow news this week of record retail sales and a recovery in property prices.
Continued.....
http://www.theage.com.au/national/economy-beats-th e-odds-20090703-d7um.html
. |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
12:40 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
WITHOUT the Rudd Government's multibillion-dollar stimulus packages and the record government debt that will accompany them, we would be in free fall.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/rudds-costl y-measures-help-the-nation-hold-up-20090703-d7vt.h tml
. |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
12:42 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Nothing can save the economy from high unemployment, record-high deficits and limited growth, but the country is in a good position, particularly when compared with the US, Britain, New Zealand or Japan, all of which are in recession.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/final-bill- for-cashsplash-may-be-jobs-20090703-d7vc.html
. |
|
By: andreihicks
4/07/2009
12:46 am Yahoo! Profile:
andreihicks Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
NZ, Great Britain, USA and Japan.
None of those Governments were lucky enough to have an economically sound predecessor just hand them a huge budget surplus. |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
1:01 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
'None of those Governments were lucky enough to have an economically sound predecessor just hand them a huge budget surplus'
With the two year mark months away, isn't that line getting a little tired ?
At doesn't an inherited surplus of 19B semm a little insignificant in relation to the 200B (highly successful) stimulus applied by the Rudd Government ?
. |
|
By: andreihicks
4/07/2009
1:04 am Yahoo! Profile:
andreihicks Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
How much are we in debt now?
Even for a Labor Government that was a pretty quick turnaround from surplus to deficit eh? |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:08 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
THE Rudd government's fiscal stimulus packages may provide no more than a temporary boost to growth, and be followed by an extended period of economic stagnation.
The only international body to correctly predict the financial crisis - the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - has warned the biggest risk is that governments might be forced by world bond investors to abandon their stimulus packages, and instead slash spending while lifting taxes and interest rates.
"An extended period of stagnating economic activity could undermine the credibility of the policies in place. Governments may find it hard to place debt if market participants expect the underlying (budget) balance to remain negative for years to come," the bank said last night.
The BIS annual report has for the past three years been warning of the dangers of a repeat of the depression. Its latest annual report warned that countries such as Australia faced the possibility of a run on the currency, which would force interest rates to rise.
"Particularly in smaller and more open economies, pressure on the currency could force central banks to follow a tighter policy than would be warranted by domestic economic conditions," the report said.
The Swiss-based BIS, which acts as central bank to the world's central banks, said it was "an open question" whether the stimulus policies would succeed in stabilising the economy.
"A significant risk is that the current stimulus will lead only to a temporary pick-up in growth, followed by protracted stagnation," it said. "Moreover, a temporary respite may make it more difficult for authorities to take the actions that are necessary, if unpopular, to restore the health of the financial system, and may thus ultimately prolong the period of slow growth."
It said there would not be a sustainable recovery until major problems in both the financial system and in the real economy were tackled, and it warned that governments were a long way from dealing a ... |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
1:11 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
'How much are we in debt now?'
Around 200B
Roughly in proportion to EVERY developed economy in the world, who applied similar techniques
The BIG difference was, Australia took the plunge quicker
And the rest of the world followed
Consequently, the desired effect was faster and stronger
Just compare
. |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:11 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
"Business purchases are up 12 per cent on a year ago, and business purchases of utes, vans and light trucks are up 27 per cent," he said. "As a result of the budget we've probably sold an extra 10,000 over three months."
a 50 % tax rebate on utes |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:13 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Around 200B
i thought i heard kev mumble 300 |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
1:13 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
'THE Rudd government's fiscal stimulus packages may provide no more than a temporary boost to growth, and be followed by an extended period of economic stagnation'
So we have a bank in Switzerland saying it won't work
Well, that changes EVERYTHING !
. |
|
By: andreihicks
4/07/2009
1:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
andreihicks Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
I could go out borrow $20 million.
Buy a $15m house, a $4.5m boat and a top of the range Ferrari.
People would say "Gee he's done well for himself. He is doing very well in life"
Well not really, it's all borrowed. I've just plunged myself into debt for many decades to come haven't I? |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:15 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
"Targeted programs are the most likely to increase aggregate spending but are politically less attractive than those that simply benefit the most people," it said. "And it is much easier to lower taxes and increase spending than to do the reverse, so fiscal expansion tends towards permanency and a rise in long-term deficits."
Although the deficits could be manageable if recovery came quickly, the BIS believes the task of removing the distortions that caused the crisis in the first place has barely begun.
"The financial sector has to shrink, as it has grown too large and accumulated assets of dubious quality," it said. "Debt and leverage in both the financial and the non-financial sectors have to decline further, and household saving rates need to rise to more reasonable levels."
Nations that were dependent on exports for growth, such as Japan and Germany, and nations dependent on debt, such as the US, has to find more balanced models. "None of this can be done overnight," it said.
The BIS expressed doubt about the bank rescue package adopted in the US and said its success was "uncertain", while it criticised the reluctance of the European Union to subject its banks to stress tests.
STORY |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
1:16 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
' I've just plunged myself into debt for many decades to come haven't I?'
As has the developed world
In THIS scenario, there WAS no alternative
Outside of a full-blown depression
'for many decades to come'
. |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
1:17 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
I see the village idiot has returned
I'm off to bed |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:18 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
So we have a bank in Switzerland saying it won't work
Well, that changes EVERYTHING !
The only international body to correctly predict the financial crisis - the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) -the only one?
The BIS annual report has for the past three years been warning of the dangers of a repeat of the depression. Its latest annual report warned that countries such as Australia faced the possibility of a run on the currency, which would force interest rates to rise. |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:19 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
I see the village idiot has returned
I'm off to bed
read it and weep buzz the village idiot. |
|
By: andreihicks
4/07/2009
1:19 am Yahoo! Profile:
andreihicks Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Wrong.
This recession was nothing like the doomsday people were predicting.
How many times have the IMF revalued their growth forecast for the United States now? Eight, nine, ten times?
How well targetted was this stimulus?
A house with an income of $400k got $1k to spend. Which we did on a rental car in Britain. How on earth did that help anyone? It didn't.
It was panic policy on the run, it was poorly thought out, plunged us into debt for no reason and yet unemployment continues to rise.... |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:20 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
The Swiss-based BIS, which acts as central bank to the world's central banks, said it was "an open question" whether the stimulus policies would succeed in stabilising the economy.
yip buzz these swiss see to know a thing or two |
|
By: deemondo
4/07/2009
1:24 am Yahoo! Profile:
deemondo Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| the imf dont have a clue rudd and swann are in the same boat. |
|
By: larkhill50
4/07/2009
4:07 am Yahoo! Profile:
larkhill50 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
I could go out borrow $20 million.
Buy a $15m house, a $4.5m boat and a top of the range Ferrari.
People would say "Gee he's done well for himself. He is doing very well in life"
Well not really, it's all borrowed. I've just plunged myself into debt for many decades to come haven't I?
------------------------- ------------------------- ---------
On the other hand you could use that $20m to start a business, employ a few people and potentially have an income stream for eternity.
This is the difference between infrastructure spending and being a total fool. |
|
By: stevesmithie
4/07/2009
7:04 am Yahoo! Profile:
stevesmithie Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| didn't joe have to retract statements he made quoting B.I.S. stats, relating to austrailas situation? |
|
By: larkhill50
4/07/2009
8:11 am Yahoo! Profile:
larkhill50 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Citing a number of BIS Shrapnel predictions that had since proved to be wrong, Mr Christopher said he would like the company to publicly revise their forecasts and 'write down exactly what actually happened with those forecasts in the past'.
'The bottom line is, I do not have much respect for their forecasts and I don't think many people do either,' he said.
Mr Christopher said SQM Research did not forecast to 2012 because there are 'too many x-factors at play'.
'We believe its nigh-on impossible to forecast out that far ahead given so many conflicting forces out there in the marketplace,' he said.
BIS Shrapnel's 'ups and downs'
When asked about the report's accuracy yesterday, BIS Shrapnel's Mr Zigomanis told news.com.au the outlook took in 'all variables' of the economy.
'That three year forecast is really based our assumptions of all the other variables three years down the track as well,' Mr Zigomanis said.
Mr Zigomanis said BIS Shrapnel's forecasts 'have had ups and downs in the last two years'.
'If you asked us 12 months ago would we (have) picked things would have deteriorated so badly towards the end of the year, the answer would be no.'
'We did forecast for fairly limited prices this financial year, in most capital cities they went backwards because of the economic environment.'
'It depends on how well you're trying to predict them, I think the general story we've got there is sound.'
He said the upswing in residential property prices would ultimately depend on when the Australian economy picks up.
'Our outlook (for the turnaround) is the 2010-11 financial year, but that's harder to pick depending on how the international economy goes.'
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,2547 9,25643313-5013951,00.html?from=public_rss |
|
By: buzzanddidj
4/07/2009
9:19 am Yahoo! Profile:
buzzanddidj Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
All this good news and positive outlook from business is just eating away at the insides of members of the support base of the 'government in exile'
That CAN'T be healthy
. |
|
By: centrelink10
4/07/2009
9:22 am Yahoo! Profile:
centrelink10 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
didn't joe have to retract statements he made quoting B.I.S. stats, relating to austrailas situation?
************************* ***************
Yes - he couldn't understand the graphs. |
|
