 Economic Downturn to Continue? |
By: pansi1951
7/07/2009
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<<Your economics credentials are what exactly?>>
......................... ......................... ..
Reality! |
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By: corky1939
7/07/2009
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Here is an answer to Australia's economic woes - received it recently via email - thought I would share it :
Dear Mr. Swan,
Please find below my suggestion for fixing Australia 's economy:
Instead of giving billions of dollars to banks that will squander the money on lavish parties and unearned bonuses, use the following plan.
You can call it the Patriotic Retirement Plan:
There are about 10 million people over 50 in the work force. (?) - Pay them $1 million apiece severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:
1) They MUST retire. Ten million job openings - Unemployment fixed.
2) They MUST buy a new Australian CAR. Ten million cars ordered - Auto Industry fixed.
3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - Housing Crisis fixed.
4) They must send their kids or grandchildren to school / college /university - Crime rate fixed
5) Buy average levels of alcohol / tobacco a week, so there's your money back in duty / tax etc
It can't get any easier than that!
P.S. If more money is needed by government , have all members of parliament pay back their "claimed" expenses and allowances |
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By: lkarnd99
7/07/2009
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Reality! << pansi >>
===
In the military it is called CDF (common dog f u*k), otherwise known as common sense....... |
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By: peterjpearson01
7/07/2009
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10,000,000 @ $1,000,000 each....
HMMMM!!!
That's $10,000,000,000,000...... ..
Ten trillion dollars?????
Where do you plan on finding that sort of small change???
Mal Turnbull's wallet??? |
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By: perceptions_now
7/07/2009
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"Ten trillion dollars?????"
peterjpearson01,
It's only money, I'm sure it can found at the same place the US is finding there money? |
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By: perceptions_now
7/07/2009
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"There are about 10 million people over 50 in the work force. (?) - Pay them $1 million apiece severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:"
corky,
As pointed out, the above could be a bit too expensive for OZ, and for that matter, even the US.
However, there is an alternative, which I have raised before and that IS TO REDUCE THE REIREMENT & PENSION AGE TO 60 YEARS, perhaps for a temporary period.
This could effectively balance up those becoming unemployed, with a slightly larger number retiring.
As a sweetener, there could be slightly more generous Assets & Income provisions in the pension payments, to make it more viable, to retire earlier.
Given the recent reductions in Super entitlements, there would likely be some additional benefits required, to allow more, to retire earlier.
That said, the idea is similar to your email, in that, we need to provide some additional jobs for those being retrenched or risk a snowball effect, as the downturn gathers pace?
And, any additional cost to the system, would be largely offset by being able stem the unemployment queues and the related losses to Business & Government incomes.
As usual, there is another issue involved and that is ways to retain knowledge in the workforce, whilst allowing more of those mature knowledge workers to retire earlier? |
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By: humblegenius_fp
7/07/2009
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Here is an answer to Australia's economic woes - received it recently via email - thought I would share it :
Dear Mr. Swan,
Please find below my suggestion for fixing Australia 's economy:
Instead of giving billions of dollars to banks that will squander the money on lavish parties and unearned bonuses, use the following plan.
You can call it the Patriotic Retirement Plan:
There are about 10 million people over 50 in the work force. (?) - Pay them $1 million apiece severance for early retirement with the following stipulations:
1) They MUST retire. Ten million job openings - Unemployment fixed.
2) They MUST buy a new Australian CAR. Ten million cars ordered - Auto Industry fixed.
3) They MUST either buy a house or pay off their mortgage - Housing Crisis fixed.
4) They must send their kids or grandchildren to school / college /university - Crime rate fixed
5) Buy average levels of alcohol / tobacco a week, so there's your money back in duty / tax etc
It can't get any easier than that!
P.S. If more money is needed by government , have all members of parliament pay back their "claimed" expenses and allowances
=======================
I have no idea who you vote for but god have mercy on our souls if you ever get into any position of power. And here I was thinking Swan was the biggest imbicile we have, corky goes and blows him away with quite possibly the most stupiest, reckless financial plan in the history of mankind as we know it.
Thankyou Corky for letting us know there is worst economic managers and ideas out there than Swan. |
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By: lkarnd99
7/07/2009
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Further to the article on Goldman Sachs running the fourth Branch of U.S. Politics, we now come to the manipulation of the U.S. Stockmarket by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).
The input of GS in the make-up of the PPT makes my head spin with the ramifications of what this network of greedy manipulators is capable of achieving.
========
This link deals with the make up of the team and its establishment after the 1987 crash.....
Plunge Protection Team
By Brett D. Fromson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 23, 1997; Page H01
The Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/long term/blackm/plunge.htm
====
This link deals with the official recall of the team to the Oval office by Bush as the economic crisis started to rear it's ugly head in early 2008.
The last time it had been mobilised was after 911.....
There can be no doubt they are still active... The question is, where does the money come from?
===
Bush convenes Plunge Protection Team
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose evans_pritchard/2782157/Bush-convenes-Plunge-Prote ction-Team.html
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor 07 Jan 2008
Bears beware. The New Deal of 2008 is in the works. The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency.
On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.
..cont |
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By: lkarnd99
7/07/2009
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cont...
Read more from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'
Financial outlook 2008: The experts' views
It appears to have powers to support the markets in a crisis with a host of instruments, mostly by through buying futures contracts on the stock indexes (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell) and key credit levers.
And it has the means to fry "short" traders in the hottest of oils.
The team is led by Treasury chief Hank Paulson, ex-Goldman Sachs, a man with a nose for market psychology, and includes Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the key exchange regulators.
Judging by a well-briefed report in the Washington Post, a mood of deep alarm has taken hold in the upper echelons of the administration. "What everyone's looking at is what is the fastest way to get money out there," said a Bush aide.
Emergency measures are now clearly on the agenda, apparently consisting of a mix of tax cuts for businesses and bungs for consumers. Fiscal action all too appropriate, regrettably.
We face a version of Keynes's "extreme liquidity preference" in the 1930s - banks are hoarding money, and the main credit arteries of the financial system remain blocked after five months.
"In terms of any stimulus package, we're considering all options," said Mr Bush. This should be interesting to watch. The president is not one for half measures. He has already shown in Iraq and on biofuels that he will pursue policies a l'outrance once he gets the bit between his teeth.
The only question is what the president can manage to push through a Democrat Congress.
The Plunge Protection Team - long kept secret - was last mobilised to calm the markets after 9/11. It then went into hibernation during the long boom.
Goldman Sachs joins the US recession bandwagon
Wall Street backs the wrong horse in fight for The White House
Larry Summers bets on Harvards's Big Think
see link for more..... |
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By: deemondo
7/07/2009
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Rudd as such looks like a Johnny Come Lately on the issue. Given that it now seems a formality that Sister Mary will be canonised, you would hope that his actions are not some 11th-hour exercise in bandwagon-jumping so that, when she does get the nod, the PM can insert himself among those who are celebrating and hope that some of the credit rubs off.
It’s not as if the Pope urgently sought an audience with Kevin Rudd to discuss this and other issues. It was of course the other way around.
The Rudd Government has already been challenged over its highly expensive decision to appoint former National Party Leader and Deputy PM Tim Fischer as Ambassador to The Holy See, a role that was once served by our Ambassador to Dublin, and has not existed as an independent post for almost 40 years.
As Patrick Walters wrote in The Australian last year, the mission will cost well over $1 million a year to run, and comes as the Government cut the budget for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and wound back its diplomatic representation in Europe.
If the Fischer appointment was jobs-for-the-boys stuff aimed at showing Rudd is not only bi-partisan but a friend of the one true faith, then a bit of last-minute grandstanding on behalf of a woman who’s going to be canonised anyway can also be viewed with a degree of cynicism, setting aside that other small point about the separation of church and state
hey we have money to burn |
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By: perceptions_now
7/07/2009
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"U.S. Job Report Suggests that Green Shoots are Mostly Yellow Weeds
Nouriel Roubini | Jul 2, 2009
The June employment report suggests that the alleged 'green shoots' are mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure. The employment report shows that conditions in the labor market continue to be extremely weak, with job losses in June of over 460,000. With the current rate of job losses, it is very clear that the unemployment rate could reach 10 percent by later this summer, around August or September, and will be closer to 10.5 percent if not 11 percent by year-end. I expect the unemployment rate is going to peak at around 11 percent at some point in 2010, well above historical standards for even severe recession.
The other element of the report that must be considered is that, for the summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is still adding between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs based on the birth/death model. We know the distortions of the birth/death model – that in a recession jobs created within firms are much smaller than those created by firms that are dying. So that's distorting downward the number of job losses. Based on the initial claims for unemployment benefits, it's more likely that the job losses are closer to 600,000 per month rather than the figures officially reported. |
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By: perceptions_now
7/07/2009
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"U.S. Job Report Suggests that Green Shoots are Mostly Yellow Weeds
Nouriel Roubini | Jul 2, 2009
There are also signs that there may be forces leading to a double-dip recession, sometime toward the second half of next year or towards 2011. If oil prices rise too much, too fast, too soon, that's going to have a negative effect on trade and real disposable income in oil-importing countries (US, Europe, Japan, China, etc.). Also concerns about unsustainable budget deficits are high and are going to remain high, with growth anemic and unemployment rising. These deficits are already pushing long-term interest rates higher as investors worry about medium- to long-term stability. If these budget deficits are going to continue to be monetized, eventually, toward the end of next year, you are going to have a sharp increase in expected inflation - after three years of deflationary pressures - that's going to push interest rates even higher.
For the time being, of course, there are massive deflationary pressures in the economy: the slack in the goods markets, with demand falling relative to supply-and-excess capacity. The rising slack in labor markets, which are controlling wages and labor costs and pushing them down, implies that deflationary pressures are going to be dominant this year and next year. |
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By: perceptions_now
7/07/2009
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"U.S. Job Report Suggests that Green Shoots are Mostly Yellow Weeds
Nouriel Roubini | Jul 2, 2009
But eventually, large budget deficits and their monetization are going to lead - towards the end of next year and in 2011 - to an increase in expected inflation that may lead to a further increase in ten-year treasuries and other long-term government bond yields, and thus mortgage and private-market rates. Together with higher oil prices driven up in part by this wall of liquidity rather than fundamentals alone, this could be a double whammy that could push the economy into a double-dip or W-shaped recession by late 2010 or 2011. So the outlook for the US and global economy remains extremely weak ahead. The recent rally in global equities, commodities and credit may soon fizzle out as an onslaught of worse- than-expected macro, earnings and financial news take a toll on this rally, which has gotten way ahead of improvement in actual macro data.
Link -
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/257210/us_j ob_report_suggests_that_green_shoots_are_mostly_ye llow_weeds |
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By: perceptions_now
7/07/2009
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U.S. Home-Equity Loan Delinquencies Set Record in First Quarter
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Late payments on home-equity loans rose to a record in the first quarter as 18 straight months of job losses and a slumping economy left more borrowers unable to pay their debts, the American Bankers Association reported.
"The number one driver of delinquencies is job loss," James Chessen, the group's chief economist, said in an e-mailed statement. "Delinquencies won't improve until companies start hiring again and we see a significant economic turnaround."
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=axMDObJEk6eA |
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By: lkarnd99
7/07/2009
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| perceptions... How long can they keep up this charade before investors pull the plug on the market, and the dollar? |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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"How long can they keep up this charade before investors pull the plug on the market, and the dollar?"
lkarnd99,
How long is a piece of string? |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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"How long is a piece of string?"
lkarnd99,
Sorry, I couldn't resist!
That said, the correct answer isn't much different.
Investors are pretty much what the word implies, they are someone with an asset & they are looking to put that asset to work, to obtain a return, the best return possible.
That pretty much also means they are inherently optimists, as are most entrepenuers & business owners.
So, the upshot of that is business & investors, will invariably look on the brighter side, they will continue, until the herd has unmistakeably turned and then some.
I expect that markets will re-test their March lows, this year, but the tussle will continue for sometime yet, possibly running as far out as 2012.
However, sometime in between now and the end of 2012, the herd will wake up, one day, and come to the conclusion that the Boa Constrictor (commonly called Population Aging & Peak Oil) has finally killed off the greatest Bull market in history and a long decline is upon them.
On that day, continents will collide and markets will collapse and the consequences that flow, will be enormous!
Can I be more precise, sorry, I just look at likely outcomes, I don't have a crystal ball. |
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By: lkarnd99
8/07/2009
9:17 am Yahoo! Profile:
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The last official act of any government is to loot the nation. -- Michael Rivero
====
The Coming Economic Apocalypse
Jun 28, 2009
Astonishing to me is the fact that no one seems to understand the ultimate result of the current policies and practices of Washington D.C. and the Federal Reserve Bank, the Fed.
I have studied our economic situation for about 3 hours per day for the last 8 months and conclude we are bankrupt.
Think about the facts.
Certainly most of the automobile industry, the airlines, 37 out of 50 states, are bankrupt. The lending industry, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac are bankrupt. Insurance giant AIG, bankrupt.
The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, or PBGC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, Social Security including Medicare and Medicaid are rapidly approaching insolvency.
In 1929 personal and corporate debt had risen to 365% of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, before the Crash. We are now at 375% of GDP. So all of this excessive credit got us into this mess in the first place, right?.
And the government and Fed solution to this mess is to print up an extra trillion dollars or so, give it to the lending industry and yell "Lend!, Lend!". That should work, right?.
Remember TARP?, the money given to the banks and other to remove their "Toxic Assets" (sorry too harsh, let's rename them "Troubled Assets".) Well, the toxins still remain.
They exist in the form of Financial Derivatives, Credit Default Swaps, or CDS, and Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDO.
These financial instruments sound complicated, and they are. They are the inventions of Wall Street wunderkinds, the ones that get paid a couple of millions per year for their "brilliance". The worldwide market (if you could call it that) or value of CDS is in the neighborhood of 600 trillion dollars, or 10 times the entire Worlds yearly economic output.
..cont |
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By: lkarnd99
8/07/2009
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cont...
How the banks and insurance giants are to clear their balance sheets of these toxins is no mystery . They cannot. Was it wise to take TARP money, 20 billion dollars, give it to General Motors when their market cap (the value of their common stock) was 985 million?. Will they pay us back?.
No. They are bankrupt. The TARP was a fraud from the start, but it has bought the powers that be some time. Time, time for what?
There is a fever pitch rush to consolidate control over us by the government and the Fed. Look what they are doing to the banks, insurance, lending institutions, auto industry, airlines. Let's now add health care.
By the way, let's appoint czars and give them power not granted by the Constitution. Why?, what's the rush? To gain control before we go "out of control"?.
And now 37 out of 50 bankrupt states need to raise fees and taxes, and so does our federal government to pay for "free" healthcare. Raise taxes during a deep recession?, worked great in the early 1930's, right?. Are these people idiots?
Yes they are. Why not have a 2 trillion dollar deficit this year, and run up the national debt to 20 trillion dollars in a few years. Interest on the debt would only be 1 trillion a year at 5 per cent. Chump change.
Government borrowing on such a massive scale will compete for the money in the open market and will make overall interest rates rise . Rates already rose a few weeks ago during a large treasury auction.
Watch this carefully, mortgage rates will respond by going up. Think what this will do to the already very ill housing market.
..cont |
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By: vegitamite97
8/07/2009
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possibly running as far out as 2012
===================
There's that Doomsday year again.
It keeps cropping up , & with a lot of negative attached to it, yikes... ! |
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By: lkarnd99
8/07/2009
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cont...
Some "experts" as of late say they see "green shoots", signs of economic recovery. What they "see" may be self-serving or it could be these people are delusional.
The Fed Chief, Treasury Secretary, Congress and the President are lying to us. We are bankrupt and they know it.
You can put a bandage on a gangrenous appendage and it looks fine, but if the appendage is not amputated the body will die. A bandage is all that is being applied to this gangrenous economy. Toxic.
So, where are we headed?. I suppose the Fed and the Treasury could just continue to print more money. Right up to the point it becomes worthless. The Weimar Republic of 1930's Germany tried this.
In the end the "money" was used to start a fire in a stove or was used as toilet paper. D.C. is too smart for this, right? Is there another way out of this mess?.
During my research I floated the following question to 10 people of various economic means. "If you were told you had no more debt but got to keep what you had, but also you had nothing in your bank or 401K or stocks or IRA, just start anew" 9 out of 10 replied "That works for me".
Astounding, but very telling. How these people responded, along with my research, and what is unfolding (actually unraveling) leads me to the following.
We are going to wake up one morning and Matt Lauer will inform us of the following. "I've got good news and bad news for you, America. The good news, for most of you, is that there is no more debt. No government debt, personal debt or corporate debt.
You get to keep what you have, your house, your cars, your flat screen TVs. You owe nothing. The bad news, for some of you, is that there are no assets. Your bank accounts are empty, all stock is worthless, and there is nothing in your 401K or IRA."
..cont |
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By: lkarnd99
8/07/2009
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cont...
None of our "leaders" in D.C. will want to take the blame for this, and will need an excuse for this. Most people will understand and even forgive how this happened when Matt goes on to say:
"What I have told you is the direct result of a computer virus that has infected the worldwide financial complex that completely melted the balance sheets so that no one knows who owes what to whom anymore.
This is why we have to start over. Just think of it as h*itting the reset button. Details on the new government monetary system will come out shortly." Problem solved, all absolved.
When the firestorm arrives, you will be glad you live in New Hampshire. At least here we may have a chance. During the dark days of the 1930's peoples faith and morality held society together. Not so today sadly.
Talk with your family, friends and neighbors. Come up with a plan. Things are about to become ugly. Very Ugly.
By Roy F. Grieder
=====
For newbies to the thread see the U.S. Debt Clock counting down
http://www.usdebtclock.org/ |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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Following are Debt figures, by nation, as provided by CNBC. Whilst I can not vouch for the accuracy, they may provide a snapshot and give some guidance, in some areas.
Also following is a link to the top countries, by GDP size, for reference. These figures may answer some questions and raise others.
Something's which will become apparent, as the next few years pass, is that DGP, EDC & GED will increase, whilst GDP will decrease!
Note: All countries are among the top 50 largest economies, as surveyed by CNBC and some figures could be slightly outdated. In particular, those countries that have put in large Stimuli (eg. US & Australia)may have undergone substantial changes.
Debt to GDP % (DEBT = Total External Govt & Private Debt)
1) Ireland - 881%DGP, $549,819 EDC, $2.3T GED, $285B GDP
2) UK - 336% DGP, $153,616 EDC, $9.4T GED, $2.8T GDP
3) Belgium - 327% DGP, $155,362 EDC, $$660B GED, $495B GDP
4) Hong Kong - 295% DGP, $85,539 EDC, $660B GED, $223B GDP
5) Netherlands - 268% DGP, $145,959 EDC, $2.4T GED, $909B GDP
6) Switzerland - 264% DGP, $171,478 EDC, $1.3T GED, $492B GDP
7) Austria - 191% DGP, $100,787 EDC, $827B GED, $432B GDP
8) France - 168% DGP, $78,070 EDC, $5.0T GED, $3.0T GDP
9) Denmark - 159% DGP, $107,026 EDC, $589B GED, $370B GDP
10) Germany - 137% DGP, $63,757 EDC, $5.2T GED, $3.8T GDP
11) Spain - 137% DGP, $57,090 EDC, $2.3T GED, $1,7T GDP
12) Sweden - 129% DGP, $73,245 EDC, $663B GED, $513B GDP
13) Finland - 116% DGP, $62,579 EDC, $328B GED, $281 GDP
14) Norway - 114% DGP, $118,353 EDC, $551B GED, $481B GDP
15) USA - 95% DGP, $44,358 EDC, $13.6T GED, $14.3T GDP
DGP = Debt % to Gross domestic Product
EDC = External Debt per Capita
GED = Gross External Debt
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
CNBC Link -
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/?slide=1
GDP Site -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ GDP_(nominal) |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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"I expect that markets will re-test their March lows, this year, but the tussle will continue for sometime yet, possibly running as far out as 2012."
By way of example, the graph in the following link, could well represent what may happen, over the next few years, as Population & Peak Oil constrict the Global economy.
As indicated in the graph, a series of mini rallies, within an over downtrend.
However, at the end of this series, there is no rainbow, nor pot of gold.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2009/03/26/1929-1932 -a-series-of-suckers-rallies/
Close gaps |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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U.S.'s debtor status worsens dramatically
At the end of 2008, America's net international investment position was minus $3.47 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Foreigners now hold nearly 50 percent of the federal government's publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their purchase of future U.S. Treasury debt securities, without even dumping their current holdings, U.S. interest rates could soar and the dollar could collapse, analysts fear.
"Three decades of massive [trade] deficits have converted the United States from the world's banker - able to 'pay any price and bear any burden in the cause of freedom' - to the world's largest debtor, utterly dependent on China and other foreign interests,"
Over the years, America's status as a creditor or debtor has changed enormously. In the early 1980s, America's net international investment position averaged $350 billion, or 11 percent of GDP, making the United States the world's largest creditor. Today, it is the world's largest debtor -by far.
The People's Bank of China also warned the United States on Friday about its very expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.
"We are so deeply in debt and this money is so liquid that it hamstrings our monetary, fiscal and trade policies," Mr. McMillion said. "We've really mortgaged our financial future."
Link -
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/27/us s-debtor-status-worsens-d ramatically/ |
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Economic Downturn to Continue? |
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