By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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California Collapsing
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 06-22-09
The big problem: Once downgraded, California's rating is likely to fall below the minimal level legally required for most money market funds, forcing these funds to dump California paper posthaste.
In my view, there is a very HIGH probability that California will default.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/california-collapsi ng-34271 |
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By: codswal
23/06/2009
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| hey I have had to change my lifestyle...do you mean I am the only one???I could live on my pension, if I didnt have to pay bills..in other words give half of it back to the govt...either Fed.State or Local...they all want a big bite...too big really...so the only way is to cut back with the things one used to take for granted.. |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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Bernanke Set to Defend Record as Reappointment Debate Begins
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will defend his unprecedented actions to prevent a financial collapse as debate on whether he should be reappointed begins.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aUBTI6OxeEVA
I would suggest Ben joins Greenspan on the backbench! |
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By: bogarde73
25/06/2009
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On the other hand perceptions, this . . . .
Factory orders jump in US
Thursday June 25, 2009, 8:19 am
Orders to US factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose sharply for a second straight month in May, and a key indicator of business investment surged by the largest amount in nearly five years.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that demand for durable goods rose 1.8 per cent last month, far better than the 0.6 per cent decline that economists expected. It also matched the rise in April, with both months posting the best performance since December 2007, when the recession began.
Orders for non-defence capital goods, a key proxy for business investment plans, jumped 4.8 per cent, the biggest increase since September 2004. That could signal that businesses have stopped trimming their investment spending.
The back-to-back monthly gains in orders for durable goods, or items expected to last at least three years, were further evidence that a dismal stretch for US manufacturers may be nearing an end. Still, analysts say any sustained rebound is still months away.
American companies have been forced to trim millions of workers as they struggle with the longest US recession since World War II. US businesses also have faced a sharp drop in exports as many major overseas markets struggle with their own downturns.
Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods posted a 1.1 per cent rise in May, also better than the 0.4 per cent drop that had been expected.
Demand for transportation products rose 3.6 per cent, reflecting a 68.1 per cent surge in orders for commercial aircraft, a volatile category that had fallen 1.4 per cent the previous month.
The big increase in aircraft offset continued weakness in the troubled auto sector. Demand for motor vehicles and parts fell 8.1 per cent in May, reflecting major disruptions from the bankruptcy filings at Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp.
Orders for machinery rose 7.7 per cent, wh ... |
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By: bogarde73
25/06/2009
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Orders for machinery rose 7.7 per cent, while demand for computers and related products surged 9.4 per cent last month.
The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, shrank at annual rates of 6.3 per cent in the final three months of last year and 5.7 per cent in the January-March quarter. That was the worst six-month stretch for the GDP in more than 50 years. The government is scheduled to revise the first-quarter GDP figure on Thursday, but analysts expect that revision will leave the overall figure unchanged.
Many economists believe that GDP in the current quarter will show a much smaller decline of around 2 per cent with growth returning in the second half of this year.
But they do not expect the unemployment rate will turn around quickly. The jobless rate jumped to a 25-year high of 9.4 per cent in May and many economists believe it could top 10 per cent before the recovery gains enough strength to push unemployment lower. |
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By: bogarde73
25/06/2009
10:22 am Yahoo! Profile:
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and this, to add to the confusing prognostications . . .
Late in, early out of the downturnPeter Martin Economics Correspondent
June 25, 2009 .
Australia is set to soar out of its economic downturn.
AUSTRALIA is set to soar out of its economic downturn sooner and more sharply than forecast in the budget, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development understood to have the backing of the Australian Treasury.
The OECD says the local economy should shrink 0.3 per cent this year, less than any other OECD economy and far less than the contraction of 1 per cent that underlies the forecasts in the May budget.
Next year the economy should roar back 2.4 per cent, also above budget forecasts and more than any other OECD economy apart from those recovering from collapse in 2009.
The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, greeted the forecasts released overnight in Paris as evidence Australia was "outperforming every other advanced economy in the face of the recession".
The forecasts show Australia's unemployment rate reaching 7.9 per cent late next year rather than the 8.25 to 8.5 per cent range assumed in the budget. They also suggest a milder build-up in government debt than forecast at budget time as increased tax revenues kick in more quickly.
The difference between the Treasury's May forecast and the OECD's June forecast is not thought to represent a difference of opinion. Treasury and Reserve Bank staff worked closely with the OECD in preparing the report. Rather the change is thought to indicate the speed at which the global economy is improving.
The OECD update is the first in two years to revise projections up rather than down. The organisation now expects developed economies to shrink by just 2.6 per cent this year, down from the 3.4 per cent it forecast in March. It expects the US economy to shrink by 1.7 per cent instead of 3.5 per cent, and Japan to shrink by 3.6 instead of 4.4 per cent.
"Activity now looks ... |
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By: bogarde73
25/06/2009
10:23 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"Activity now looks to be approaching its nadir," said the OECD chief economist, Jorgen Elmeskov. "Thanks to a strong economic policy effort an even darker scenario seems to have been avoided."
The OECD identifies China as the driving force behind the global recovery, crediting "massive government stimulus" measures with lifting expected growth there this year from 6.3 per cent to 7.7 per cent and to 9.3 per cent next year.
In a blow to the federal Opposition, the OECD specifically commends the infrastructure spending and cash bonus payments opposed by the Coalition in the Senate, describing them as "welcome" and "boosting" domestic demand.
It cautions policymakers not to ease up on efforts to stimulate their economies and says the Reserve Bank has room to further cut interest rates.
"With a nascent recovery hopefully in sight it would be tempting to relax the extraordinary policy effort of the past nine months," it says. "Tempting, but wrong. Not only because post-crisis policy strategies need preparing but also because there is still more policy can do to ensure a faster and more robust recovery."
The report says the Rudd Government needs to "maintain the expansionary thrust" of its policy. "Despite relatively favourable developments" Australia's conditions "remain fragile" with a further downturn likely this year. |
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By: vegitamite97
25/06/2009
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We should never take for granted this period.
I feel we are still walking on a fine line. And as I have stated it is all about 'perceptions' and confidence but we need to realise the world debt levels could out way its income if we are not careful. |
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By: bogarde73
25/06/2009
10:28 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| maybe that's a message you could give to Messrs Swan & Rudd vegie |
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By: perceptions_now
25/06/2009
11:41 am Yahoo! Profile:
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bogarde73,
Truth be known, I would prefer, for many reasons, that your thoughts bear out and this downturn remains at the level of the usual, garden variety Recession!
That said, I believe, even Houdini would have great difficulty getting out of this, intact.
As previously indicated, in my opinion, the OZ, US & other markets, are likely to re-test March lows, prior to the end of this year! |
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By: perceptions_now
25/06/2009
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Fed Douses Purchases Talk, Urges Investors to 'Relax' (Update1)
"The real bind for the FOMC is the amount of Treasury debt coming at the markets," said Lee Hoskins, former head of the Cleveland Fed bank. Expanding Fed purchases may fan investor concerns about inflation, or rates may rise, anyway, because of an increased supply of government debt, Hoskins said. "Congress needs to address the deficit issue if it wants to improve prospects for the economy."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=afr0LFONcEA8
The FED's BIGGEST PROBLEM, is CREDIBILITY or LACK OF IT! |
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By: perceptions_now
25/06/2009
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"Ireland's Banks Face EU35 Billion of Losses, IMF Says
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland's banks face losses of as much as 35 billion euros ($49 billion) through next year as the economy shrinks at an "unprecedented" pace, the International Monetary Fund said.
Ireland had its credit rating lowered to AA from AA+ this month by S&P, which cited the nation’s rising bill for propping up its banks. Fitch Ratings in April downgraded the country to AA+ from AAA."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aMvWeNYEJeag
First, Ireland's Debt to GDP ratio is abysmal!
http://ftp.ncb.ie/economics/Irishdebt.pdf
Second, Fitch & the other ratings company's have missed everything, including the kitchen sink, why should anyone pay any attention to them! |
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By: perceptions_now
26/06/2009
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China Reiterates Call for New World Reserve Currency, PBoC Says
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank reiterated its call for a "super sovereign" currency and said the IMF should manage part of members foreign currency reserves. The People's Bank of China made the comments in its annual financial stability report posted on its Web site today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aJvfiKnKAsR4
Small article, large possible ramifications! |
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By: pansi1951
27/06/2009
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<<China Reiterates Call for New World Reserve Currency>>
......................... ......................... .......
I think that could well happen within the next two years, as the West get poorer and the east get richer. I wonder what the currency will be, and just imagine the ramifications. Big changes ahead! |
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By: perceptions_now
27/06/2009
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Five more US banks gone, today, takes tally to 45 for YTD.
Is the pace quickening?
FDIC Link -
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklis t.html |
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By: pansi1951
27/06/2009
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<<Is the pace quickening?>>
......................... .......
It is in my small neck of the woods. For the first time, I am sseing charity vouchers being presented for groceries instead of credit cards or cash.
I don't take any notice of statistics or economic experts. I rely on observance and it's looking worse by the week. The store where I work is so slow these days. The test will come, the great toy sale in July has always been exceptionally busy, but I think this year could be different, the outcome will be a good indication anyway.
There will be a certain bank in New Zealand going under if they keep giving money away. |
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By: perceptions_now
29/06/2009
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Nouriel Roubini Article (29/06/2009) -
China's Super-Sovereign Reserve Currency Idea: Could the SDR Be a Reserve Currency?
People's Bank of China's Financial Stability Report (June 2009): To avoid intrinsic shortcomings in using a sovereign currency as a reserve currency, there is a need to create an international reserve currency that is divorced from sovereign states and can maintain a stable value over the long term. It also suggested that the IMF step up its review of the economic and monetary policies of reserve currencies to encourage stability, a view previously expressed by finance ministry officials (Reuters)
Nouriel Roubini: The process that will lead - in the medium to long term - to a challenge of the U.S. dollar as the major global reserve currency has started. The U.S. creditors - the BRICs, the Gulf states and others - are becoming increasingly alarmed that the U.S. will deal with its unsustainable fiscal path via inflation and debasement of the value of the U.S. dollar via depreciation. So they will not sit idly waiting for this to happen: they are already diversifying into gold, into resources (as China purchases mines and energy, mineral and commodity resources all over the world) |
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By: lkarnd99
29/06/2009
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We are currently in a false dawn...
The economic downturn in the U.S. is being held in check by fraudulent activity on the part of the Fed Reserve, a private corporation that happens to control the U.S. economy.
It is believed that its actions in controlling the stock market and US Dollar through its ability to print money has prevented the meltdown of the U.S. Economy, and maintained a level of confidence in the U.S. Dollar... But at what cost??
Here a member of Congress questions the Inspector General of the Fed, responsible for auditing it, to ask if she knows where the trillions of dollars it has spent in the last eight months has been spent... Listen to the answer.
Is Anyone Minding the Store at the Federal Reserve?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJqM2tFOxLQ
Ron Paul has been trying to get a bill passed in Congress demanding that the Fed be audited. The Chairman of the Fed Reserve has threatened that an economic collapse would occur if the Fed was audited.
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Bernanke Threatens Economic Collapse If Fed Audited
Aaron Dykes
Infowars
Friday, June 26, 2009
http://www.prisonplanet.com/bernanke-threatens-eco nomic-collapse-if-fed-audited.html
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke unleashed an alarming veiled threat of financial terrorism when he was questioned by Rep. Duncan on Thursday about his response to the fact that a majority of Congress co-sponsoring Ron Paul's H.R. 1207 bill to audit the Federal Reserve.
Bernanke clearly regarded the bill's intent as hostile to the institution he represents:
"My concern about the legislation is that if the GAO is auditing not only the operational aspects of the programs and the details of the programs but making judgments about our policy decisions would effectively be a takeover of policy by the Congress and a repudiation of the Federal Reserve would be highly destructive to the stability of the financial system, the Dollar and our national economic situation."
..cont |
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By: andreihicks
29/06/2009
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'is being held in check by fraudulent activity on the part of the Fed Reserve,'
That is outright libel. |
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By: lkarnd99
29/06/2009
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cont..
The brunt of Bernanke's statement is as crystal clear as a threat from a common street thug - back off from the Fed, or the economy gets it.
The chairman clearly implies that any attempt to restore monetary powers constitutionally granted to the Congress would be seen as a "takeover" and that the defensive and "repudiated" Fed would respond destructively.
Of course Congress' constitutional power over money is enumerated in Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution:
The Congress shall have power. To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;
Bernanke's open use of financial terrorism in the face of Congress' blatant Constitutional authority is absurd and despicable.
Greenspan, Bernanke and other Fed-related cronies have already bad-mouthed the Dollar and signaled it's decline as the world's currency. So what else is new?
====
This fraudulent behaviour by the Fed. will no doubt be maintained until those in the positions of power can cover their losses, and transfer their risk to safer positions, before the plug is pulled........
What will happen? .... Those countries with major stakes in the U.S. Dollar, and Trade will see the value of those stakes collapse....
As Australia is a very close partner to the U.S. in terms of it's Military connection, Trade, and Dollar, regardless of our current strong position, we will see a major downturn........
It depends on how long the Fed. can maintain it's charade... |
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By: lkarnd99
29/06/2009
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That is outright libel. << andrei >>
===
So sue me, at least we will get an Audit of the Fed.... |
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By: lkarnd99
29/06/2009
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Here is a link to the U.S. Debt Clock, showing how they are racking up debt, i.e. apart from what the Fed. is hiding....
http://www.usdebtclock.org/ |
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By: perceptions_now
29/06/2009
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"That is outright libel. << andrei >>
===
So sue me, at least we will get an Audit of the Fed...."
1) I don't see the FED taking any action.
2) If it did, which is not likely, the outcomes could prove interesting, to say the least! |
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By: perceptions_now
29/06/2009
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"Here is a link to the U.S. Debt Clock, showing how they are racking up debt"
lkarnd99,
Good to see you have already met Andrei!
I had not yet seen that particular site, but at a quick glance, the details looks about right!
There are numerous areas of interest, but UNfunded Liabilities, Actual/Real Unemployment & the rapidly expanding Federal Deficit are of particular interest.
Of course, there are some issues relevant to the FED, that do not appear. |
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By: pansi1951
30/06/2009
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<<'is being held in check by fraudulent activity on the part of the Fed Reserve,'>>
......................... ......................... .....
Of course!
Maybe when America goes bankrupt, the audit will happen. Either way, that country is heading deeper and deeper into a black hole.
I wonder how many countries will follow, as they did with the recession? |
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