By: vegitamite97
22/06/2009
3:21 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Judging by many commentary by leading economists, global and domestic, or perhaps by their silence, it appears that they have no idea either whether things will get better of not.
Maybe we are in the eye of the storm .
Either way, once we know for sure, expect to read and hear lots from these experts on how they knew all along and why! |
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By: andreihicks
22/06/2009
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When the global economy returns to growth by the period I projected back 6 months ago - I would like a grovelling apology from some of the doomsdayers on here.
To date, it is looking awfully like I was spot on in regard to growth projection. |
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By: richie186
22/06/2009
3:54 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Ive seen posts here before where Andre has predicted doom and gloom himself. |
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By: andreihicks
22/06/2009
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Wrong.
I predicted doom and gloom for Australia if the current Government continued to ignore the working middle class and bleed us dry and give it to losers.
On the world economy, I predicted a downturn early Q1 with some softening through Q2 for the US economy. Then a flat period through Q3 and early Q4 with a slow return to growth in 2010 for the US economy followed by the EU a quarter later.
I predicted this 6 months ago and I've been on the money to date.
Kind of highlights how good I am at finance, accounting and economics eh? |
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By: richie186
22/06/2009
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I wouldnt get too confident Andre. You made broad sweeping comments about incredibily complex industries and economies.
More good luck than good management one would think.
You also promised a recession for Oz. Shows that anyone can win the lottery. |
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By: andreihicks
22/06/2009
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"You also promised a recession for Oz"
I did not actually.
I said Australia would be impacted by a global downturn and recessions in Europe and the United States but thanks to a huge surplus left to the Government by the previous one, they have been in a position to avoid it.
Also Australia is a unique position of having natural resources which are required by the Chinese. Again not something afforded to the Europeans so Australia was always more likely to avoid recession than others.
Not necessarily good management by this current Government anymore than you would say the UAE is wealthy because of good treasury management. |
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By: richie186
22/06/2009
4:17 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Umm, yeah you did, you predicted a recession, and the day it was announced that Australia avoided it, you said it was wrong, that there is so many doing it tough and you felt for the working mums and dads. you also said this was far from over.
Sounded pretty doom and gloom to me.
Seems to me you like to play both sides of the fence for the arguement of the time, allowing you luxury of quoting yourself down the track to whatever arguement you are trying to support now, all in an effort to make yourself appear smarter. Its disappointing.
People that are good at their jobs dont need to tell people, the people already know. |
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By: andreihicks
22/06/2009
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"that there is so many doing it tough and you felt for the working mums and dads. you also said this was far from over."
Ok tell me, you think that is not true..... |
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By: richie186
22/06/2009
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You just seem to want to play the spread Andre to cover yourself down the track.
But we all know you dont care about the "mums and dads" of Oz.
there is plenty of these"mums and dads" that have put themselves in the hole by their own accord.
Once again, you were playing the spread to allow yourself to feel righteous at a later time.
No one is buying it. |
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By: andreihicks
22/06/2009
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Mums and dads are losing their jobs through this year.
They did not put themselves in that position. They were made redundant for god's sake.
If you don't think people are doing it tough out there, go and have a look.
I assure you they are. |
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By: perceptions_now
22/06/2009
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"Kind of highlights how good I am at finance, accounting and economics eh?"
Andrei,
Yes Andrei, I agree, you are as good as the World Bank, the IMF and all those other experts?
That said, I had a good look at where things would be likely to go, when I was making some decisions (in 2006) on super investments and retirement.
Those decisions are still in play now, I have successfully increased my total assets during a time when other super funds, investments have gone backwards and I have now retired.
During these last 3 years, I opted for absolute safety, because it was the right thing to do, at my life timing, but mainly because I perceived it was the right investment strategy, for the times.
Thus far, my perceptions have been proven correct.
Regretably, for many others, the last 3 years has not treated them as well.
In a nutshell, the short & medium future hold many problems & difficulties, as Vegi put it, we are in the eye of the storm.
My perception, is that the eye is now passing and shortly that storm will be upon again.
As I said earlier. prior to the end of this year, the Global Markets & Economy will likely lose another big chunk.
Medium term, there will not be the usual V shape bounce back of recent Recessions, for reasons outlined, on numerous previous occasions.
From the overall point of view, I hope my future perceptions are wrong and Andrei's are right, but I suspect the future already has its mind made up!
PS - Sometimes the FIG JAM approach just doesn't cut it. |
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By: perceptions_now
22/06/2009
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Albert Edwards: New Equity Lows Coming, China's No Green Shoot
Albert Edwards, global strategist of Societe Generale, has always been a firm favorite among readers of Investment Postcards. His latest "Global Strategy Weekly" offers thought-provoking reading at a critical juncture in financial markets. The paragraphs below come courtesy of Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge.
Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, but his main concern is also every optimist's greatest green shoot: China.
Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely skeptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like, long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more skepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things China reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/144335-albert-edwa rds-new-equity-lows-coming-china-s-no-green-shoot? source=email |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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Insiders Dump Shares at Fastest Pace in 2 Years
Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago.
Sales by CEOs, directors and senior officers have accelerated to the highest level since June 2007, two months before credit markets froze, as the S&P 500 rebounded from its 12-year low in March. The increase is making investors more skittish because executives presumably have the best information about their companies’ prospects.
Link -
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06 /insiders-dump-shares-at-fastest-pace-in.html |
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By: bogarde73
23/06/2009
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| I'll stick with the guru's forecast of around 4500 for the ASX before thinking of baling |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
11:38 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"I'll stick with the guru's forecast of around 4500 for the ASX before thinking of baling"
bogarde73,
There are so many "GURU's", but I assume you refer to Harry Dent.
Good luck!
It is a very difficult time, when so many Guru's, have so many different slants on what is likely to happen.
For what it's worth, my expectation is that we have already past the top of this current run that started back in March and we are now likely to trend DOWn, until around November!
I believe that the ASX & the DOW will now retest their March low's of around 3150 and 6550, respectively.
That said, you are the best judge of your current status, your tolerance for pain, but be careful, the days of "Buy & Hold are over".
Have a look at the 5 year selection on the following graphs, the current run is finished, we are in the early stages of the next DOWn leg, as the ASX today & the DOW last night suggest.
ASX 200 Graph Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=AS5 1%3AIND
DOW Graph link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=IND U%3AIND |
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By: vegitamite97
23/06/2009
12:26 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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the days of "Buy & Hold are over
=====================
Hoping some good comes from this & interesting to watch that America are starting to see how much they waste. Not that they are the only country that should we all should.
Seems Americans are now starting to open their eyes to wastage like their parents did during the depression. |
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By: vegitamite97
23/06/2009
12:34 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Also meaning that a lot of companies can go under as the economy was also built up on waste... |
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By: mopohw
23/06/2009
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| Surely "beloved leader" and wayneepoo cannot have got this wrong. |
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By: vegitamite97
23/06/2009
12:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hopefully meaning , Goodbye Disposable world ! |
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By: casino_royale44r
23/06/2009
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| turnbull has been gut shot and bleeding bad with no way of living on in politics. |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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"Goodbye Disposable world !"
vegi,
One way OR another, YES! |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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casino & mopohw,
Following are a couple of posts from other threads, which I think, probably give away my position!
"I, for one, would be quite happy for Turnbull to take a permanent sabatical and he could be joined by Rudd, Hockey, Swan and the rest!"
"The French are on the right track
Hey, wasn't it the French who came up with the idea of the guillotine?" |
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By: andreihicks
23/06/2009
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| I shall not change the way I live my life one iota. |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
5:20 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"I shall not change the way I live my life one iota."
andrei,
And therein, is part of the problem!
There are far too many, in your iota, that will refuse to change, no matter what!!! |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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Nouriel Roubini -
A Significant Global Growth Contraction in 2009, But What Path for 2010?
World Bank (June 22): Global GDP, after falling by a record 2.9% in 2009 is expected to recover by a modest 2% in 2010 and by 3.2% in 2011 as banking sector consolidation, continuing negative wealth effects, elevated unemployment rates, and risk aversion are expected to weigh on demand throughout the forecast period. Despite higher growth rates in developing countries (given stronger underlying productivity and population growth), output will remain subdued
World Bank: Given output losses to date - and because GDP will reach its potential growth rate only by 2011- the output gap (the gap between actual GDP and its potential), unemployment, and disinflationary pressures are projected to build over 2009 to 2011. |
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