By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
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Can We? Will We?
Some readers may note that climate change has not figured prominently in this discussion. It is clearly, after all, the worst environmental catastrophe in human history. Indeed, its consequences could be far worse than the mere destruction of national economies: hundreds of millions of people and millions of other species could be imperiled. The reason for the relatively limited discussion of climate here is that (assuming the Alternative Diagnosis is correct) it is not climate change that has proven to be the most immediate limit to economic growth, but resource depletion. However, while there is not as yet general agreement on the point, climate change itself and the needed steps to minimize it both constitute limits to growth, just as resource depletion does. Moreover, if we fail to successfully manage the inevitable process of economic contraction that will characterize the coming decades, there will be no hope of mounting an organized and coherent response to climate change-a response consisting of efforts both to reduce climate impacts and to adapt to them. It is important to note, though, that the measures advocated here (including the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, a rapid reduction of reliance on fossil fuels in transport and agriculture, and the stabilization of population levels) are among the steps that will help most to reduce carbon emissions.
Is this essay likely to change the thinking and actions of policy makers? Unfortunately, that is unlikely. Their belief in the possibility and necessity of continued growth is pervasive, and the notion that growth may no longer be possible is unthinkable. But the Alternative Diagnosis must be a matter of record.
Link -
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5638 |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
11:40 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Can We? Will We?
But even if policy makers continue to ignore warnings such as this, individuals and communities can take heed and begin the process of building resilience, and of detaching themselves from reliance on fossil fuels and institutions that are inextricably tied to the perpetual growth machine. We cannot sit passively by as world leaders squander opportunites to awaken and adapt to growth limits. We can make changes in our own lives, and we can join with our neighbors. And we can let policy makers know we disapprove of their allegiance to the status quo, but that there are other options.
Is it too late to begin a managed transition to a post-fossil fuel society? Perhaps. But we will not know unless we try. And if we are to make that effort, we must begin by acknowledging one simple, stark reality: growth as we have known it can no longer be our goal.
Link -
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5638 |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
11:43 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"historical facts were used to back this thesis
and these historical facts are applicable to the limited knowledge at the time
out dated!!"
slr,
So you say -
Fact?
Theory?
Thesis?
Or, just the usual - Tactics? |
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By: slr2007mclaren
15/08/2009
11:46 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| I am not sure if you even understand the source you are posting from PN |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
11:47 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"All that remains is the un-answered question of what happens with the massive personal and national debts of worlds leading nations?
China has lent the US billions and passed it's own laws enabling foreclosure in minute detail."
pedro,
Yes, it's more like Trillions, but I know where you are coming from.
I suspect both sides have plans afoot! |
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By: pedrofromspain
15/08/2009
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SLR5000 perhaps thinks that debt level is no concern?
As i said the level of debt is a major concern.
Modern economics sidesteps this issue but we do see it is what continually comes up in the news as the cause of economic difficulty.
Oddly economists don't connect the two, wonder why?
United nations has given warnings to a few countries in particular over the years, Australia being one.
Money will need to be re-paid at some point. |
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By: vegitamite97
15/08/2009
11:51 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| ha perception, I keep going to ask a question OR make a statement on points but the next post you paste ends up answers them , so I dont need to comment because my other questions have no answers , Id say..... |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
11:51 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"I am not sure if you even understand the source you are posting from PN"
slr,
No doubt you will tell me!
However, I am interested in the message, not the messenger. |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
11:54 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"Oddly economists don't connect the two, wonder why?"
pedro,
I wouldn't necessarily conclude that connections have not already been made! |
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By: slr2007mclaren
15/08/2009
11:56 am Yahoo! Profile:
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and the message is sound
the assumption to prove it is flawed though |
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By: slr2007mclaren
15/08/2009
11:58 am Yahoo! Profile:
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SLR5000 perhaps thinks that debt level is no concern?
.
.
Money will need to be re-paid at some point.
====
of course I am concerned about debt
this is why I continue to ask Rudd what his plans are to repay the $315B debt |
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By: quantum_of_solace44r
15/08/2009
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| $315b so do you work for treausry now slr2007?? god don't tell me you are Grech? |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
12:03 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"the assumption to prove it is flawed though"
slr,
Where is the evidence? |
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By: slr2007mclaren
15/08/2009
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the evidence?
that's my point!
there isn't any!!
and until you understand the oil market fundamentals such as one presented in this link then your Peak Oil theory is simply an academic discussion
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090814/2/2804n.html
Already, government reports have shown huge amounts of crude and natural gas being ploughed into storage. In just the past two weeks, crude levels have risen by nearly 7 million barrels.
The price for crude contracts that don't require delivery until four to five months from now is higher than prices contracts that must be settled in September. But that's not a sign that traders think there will be more demand in several months.
Rather, those buying crude are adding in the cost of storage because so little is being used to make petrol and other fuels.
In fact, refiners have cut back on production for the past four weeks. |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
12:36 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"the evidence?
that's my point!
there isn't any!!"
So, there you have it, slr has NO EVIDENCE! |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
12:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"and until you understand the oil market fundamentals such as one presented in this link then your Peak Oil theory is simply an academic discussion"
slr,
At least I took the time to read your article!
That said, there is not much in it about any fundamentals and certainly nothing I am not already aware of.
==========
Energy prices finished the week sharply lower, giving up more than 4 per cent on Friday on evidence that consumers are unlikely to take the lead in an economic recovery.
Oil prices 'heading for extended fall'
Oil, which has been propped up by optimism that people will begin spending more, tumbled after a week-ending report suggested those hopes may be premature.
The report comes amid a string of weak earnings reports from major retailers, which continued to arrive on Friday. Abercrombie & Fitch reported its third straight quarter of double-digit sales declines. JC Penney posted a second-quarter loss and said it expects sluggish sales for the rest of the year.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the lack of enthusiasm from consumers, who account for about 70 per cent of all US economic activity. |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
3:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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US BANK CLOSURES - UPDATE!!!
BB&T Acquires Colonial as Regulators Close Five U.S. Lenders
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Colonial BancGroup Inc., the Alabama lender facing a criminal probe, had its banking operations closed by regulators and taken over by BB&T Corp. in the biggest failure since Washington Mutual Inc. collapsed last year.
Colonial said last month there was "substantial doubt" it could survive and on Aug. 7 said part of its mortgage-lending business was the target of a U.S. criminal probe. The Securities and Exchange Commission issued subpoenas for documents related to accounting for loan loss reserves and participation in the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program, the bank said.
Regulators also shut two companies in Arizona, one in Las Vegas and one in Pittsburgh yesterday, pushing the tally of failed banks this year to 77.
LINK -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=apZ_EpwYGU4E
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3 more US banks joined the closure que, after the closing bell on the west coast.
Total now - 77 YTD |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
3:27 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"ha perception, I keep going to ask a question OR make a statement on points but the next post you paste ends up answers them"
vegi,
Sorry about that!
It was a long and fairly comprehensive article and the author seemed to cover quite a few bases. |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
3:49 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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UBS Client to Admit Failure to Report Swiss Account to IRS
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- A California client of UBS AG agreed to plead guilty to a charge of failing to file a tax report for an offshore bank account holding more than $1 million.
On Aug. 12, the Justice Department announced it had reached an agreement with UBS in a dispute over the disclosure of 52,000 secret Swiss accounts. Details of the settlement haven't been made public.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aXrlMpdDXYGs
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It is common for most people to minimise the tax they pay and I can agree with that course of action.
However, where efforts go beyond minimisation and switch to the illegal, I have NO problem in using the long arm of the law, to ensure these people get what's coming to them.
That said, I am yet to be convinced that all of THESE people, will get their JUST REWARDS? |
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By: pansi1951
15/08/2009
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<<Their belief in the possibility and necessity of continued growth is pervasive, and the notion that growth may no longer be possible is unthinkable>>
......................... ..................
I think it was the Queen asked an economist how come they didn't see this economic crises happening. They answered that they saw it coming, they just didn't want to believe it.
It's like the housing market. You cannot go on forever buying houses and selling them at a profit, year after year, decade after decade, it has to end somewhere. There must be a point where it becomes unsustainable.
Good information from theoildrum perceptions.
It is the end of an era, I for one won't be sorry to see the end of the "me me me era". Hopefully humanity might be kinder to each other???? |
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By: tree5hyme
15/08/2009
6:49 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Well pansi1951,one can only echo your thoughts. |
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By: perceptions_now
15/08/2009
7:35 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"me me me era"
pansi,
Indeed, the message is there, but will it be acted on?
Because if it isn't acted on, and soon, then not only will me me me, miss out, but so will us! |
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By: nedwin05
15/08/2009
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"its an academic theory!"
Really Macca? |
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By: nedwin05
15/08/2009
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"if you want to perpetuate this panic then I am happy to provide the balancing view whenever I see it come up."
happy to debate the topic too SLR. |
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By: andreihicks
15/08/2009
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I thought we were supposed to be in the middle of one almighty end of days scenario according to you?
Shouldn't Australia resemble the set of Mad Max by now?
Strange isn't it, when you predicted this, I predicted the Eurozone and US to begin to come out of the recession and with a return to small positive growth by Q3/Q4 2009.
I'll start accepting apologies and admissions I was right any time from now.... |
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