 Economic Downturn to Continue? |
By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
4:49 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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My parents have a golden retriever - but they live backing onto a park and have a massive garden.
You need to be settled to have pets. At the moment, I honestly cant tell you what country I'll be living in 2 years time.
I dont have stability for a pet.
I'd recommend a golden retriever to anyone though. Great dogs.
Never liked cats. |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"The key for Australia is to ensure that we have in place the right incentives, the right tax breaks, the right companies to attract and KEEP these people.
YES
YES
YES"
ms.cuteandcheeky,
Yes, but with wrinkles and a lot more difficult to achieve, than in the past!
<< smiles >> |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
5:11 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Nouriel Roubini Article -
Credit Crunch in the Eurozone: Bank Lending to the Private Sector Starts Contracting
ECB June Monthly Bulletin: Loans to non-financial corporations slowed to 4.4%y/y in May 2009 from 5.3% in April 2009, with the monthly flow turning negative by EUR5 billion. Loans to households declined on a year over year basis by 0.2% in May after recording zero growth in April.
Wolfgang Munchau: "Companies who file for bankruptcy increasingly blame the banks, and the number of bankruptcies is rising rapidly. The problem is that the trillions of dollars and euros in liquidity are not getting through. There is no point in blaming the banks. In fact, banks act responsibly when they deny credit to customers whom they judge to have lost creditworthiness." (Financial Times) |
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By: ms.cuteandcheeky
8/07/2009
5:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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I'd recommend a golden retriever to anyone though. Great dogs.
Never liked cats.
- Andrei
Golden Retrievers? From any particular country Andrei?
Oh and I am allergic to cats. |
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By: ms.cuteandcheeky
8/07/2009
5:19 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| I actually agree Perceptions Now! I also happen to love a good challenge ... or 3 :) |
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By: ms.cuteandcheeky
8/07/2009
5:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Nothing has ever been more important to me than my family.
- Andrei
A very admirable quality Andrei. Pity such an attitude is almost considered outdated these days :( |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
5:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"I'd recommend a golden retriever to anyone though. Great dogs.
Never liked cats"
ms.cuteandcheeky,
Golden Retriever - Agrred, great dog!
Cats, my wife would get along with you, just fine! |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
8:42 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Stocks, Oil Retreat on Economy, Earnings Concern; Yen Climbs
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks fell, pushing the MSCI World Index lower for a fifth day, oil retreated and the yen gained on speculation earnings reports will show the worst global recession since World War II is far from over.
"People had been overly optimistic that the recovery will be fast and V-shaped," said Nigel Rendell, a senior emerging- market strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. "We're not convinced that will be the case. A lot of the value has disappeared out of these markets."
Crude oil for August delivery fell 1.3 percent to $62.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A government report today is expected to show U.S. gasoline inventories grew last week as the world's largest energy consumer struggles with the economic slump.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aah5Qd3Z2FOw |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
10:47 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund Reserve Ratio Plunges To 0.27% Of Deposits
The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund has plunged to an all time low of just $13 billion as of March 31, or 0.27% of $4.8 trillion in insured deposits. It is worth nothing that since March 31, 15 new banks have failed which includes the biggest one so far this year, BankUnited (which Marla has a special fondness for in her heart and will be providing some ongoing entertainment on). It is thus safe to say that the $13 billion has been spent in the past 2 months, especially since banks no longer issue debt under the TLGP (of which, nonetheless, there was $336 billion outstanding at March 31 - somehow when banks are talking about repaying TARP, their FDIC-guaranteed debt, by far the biggest crutch to the banking system, is conveniently never mentioned) and therefore no longer pay FDIC guaranteed debt issuance associated fees.
Link -
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/fdics-deposi t-insurance-fund-reserve.html
Close gaps
===================
The graph in the above link, shows the usual FDIC fund balance of around $50 Billion and the usual Reserve Ratio as around 1.25%.
In short, the FDIC is by now, very short, of funds, to fund depositors funds, as the US banks continue to be under-funded and go BELLY UP!
So, they along with others, will be looking to the FED's & the FED, to bail them out, as well! |
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By: thy.nemesis
8/07/2009
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| Crikey, Perceptions...perhaps that implosion is imminent... |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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"Crikey, Perceptions...perhaps that implosion is imminent"
thy,
No, not just yet, the amounts involved can & will be topped, by the Fed's.
And, the number of banks going, going, gone, hasn't yet reached plague proportions, but the number of banks going bust, is rising.
There is a balancing game in progress! |
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By: perceptions_now
10/07/2009
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China's Exports Fall for Eighth Month on Global SlumpJuly 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's exports fell for an eighth month as the global recession cut demand, highlighting the economy's dependence on stimulus spending to boost growth.
Overseas sales slid 21.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported today, citing customs data. That compares with the median estimate of a 21 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists and a record 26.4 percent drop in May.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aLO8mzdPLWPo |
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By: perceptions_now
10/07/2009
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El-Erian Says Geithner Shares an 'A' With Bernanke for Effort
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., gives Timothy Geithner and Ben S. Bernanke an "A" for their efforts to revive credit markets.
Geithner, the U.S. Treasury secretary, and Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, deserve just a "B" for results because "it's very difficult to get it right," El-Erian, 50, said in an interview from Pimcoâs headquarters in Newport Beach, California. "They've been imaginative, they've been bold, they've been willing to take risks. On outcome it's a 'B.'"
The policy makers have taken unprecedented steps over the past year to restore confidence to credit markets.
"We're in a phase of policy experimentation," El-Erian said. "We've never seen this."
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aSZEJZbgxBG0
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He gives much higher marks than I and his future estimates are equally too high! |
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By: perceptions_now
10/07/2009
8:13 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Finally, so good news?
Oil, has slipped back under $60 per Barrel. |
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By: perceptions_now
11/07/2009
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Bank of Wyoming Seized; 53rd U.S. Failure This Year (Update1)
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Wyoming in Thermopolis was closed by regulators, the 53rd lender to fail this year, amid rising unemployment and home foreclosures in the deepest recession in a quarter century.
Bank of Wyoming, with $70 million of assets and $67 million of deposits, was closed by the state's Department of Audit, Division of Banking and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver, the FDIC said today in a statement. Central Bank & Trust in Lander, Wyoming, will assume the deposits and the failed bank's only office.
"There is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage," the FDIC said.
Regulators have accelerated the pace of bank seizures this year, shuttering the most since 1992 and more than twice as many as last year. The recession has wiped out about 6.5 million U.S. jobs in the past two years, pushing unemployment in June to a 26-year high 9.5 percent, making it harder for consumers to pay their bills.
Central Bank will buy all of Bank of Wyoming's deposits except for $8 million in brokered deposits, and agreed to purchase about $55 million of assets. Bank of Wyoming, the state's first failed bank since 1991, will open as a branch of Central Bank "during normal business hours," the FDIC said.
The FDIC estimates closing Bank of Wyoming will cost the agency's deposit insurance fund $27 million. The fund, supported by fees on insured banks, fell to $13 billion in the first quarter, the lowest since September 1993.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=agpbmkGrsbu4
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It will be interesting to see what level of funds remain in the FDIC, at the end of Q2? |
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By: perceptions_now
11/07/2009
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U.S. Stocks Fall, S&P 500 Completes Fourth Straight Weekly Loss
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a fourth straight weekly loss, as a deeper-than-estimated slide in consumer confidence added to concern the economic recovery will be delayed.
CIT Group Inc., the century-old lender that trades in the bond market as if it may fail, slid 18 percent on concern the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. won't guarantee its bond sales. Chevron Corp.
"We're finding out that the economy is not recovering in any significant way at all," said Christian Thwaites, president and chief executive officer of Sentinel Investments in Montpelier, Vermont, which manages $19 billion. "The market is still relatively expensive on a current earnings basis."
The worst recession in half a century may be prolonged because consumers see few signs that job losses and declines in home prices are ending, economists Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller said.
The economy shrank 5.5 percent in the first quarter and 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, the worst six months since 1958, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Analysts estimate profits of S&P 500 companies fell 35 percent last quarter from a year earlier after plunging 33 percent in the first quarter, Bloomberg data show. They forecast a 21 percent year-on-year drop in the third quarter.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aLk8_TbspkGk
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By: perceptions_now
11/07/2009
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Medvedev Shows Off Sample Coin of New 'World Currency' at G-8
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev illustrated his call for a supranational currency to replace the dollar by pulling from his pocket a sample coin of a "united future world currency."
"Here it is," Medvedev told reporters today in L'Aquila, Italy, after a summit of the Group of Eight nations. "You can see it and touch it."
The coin, which bears the words "unity in diversity," was minted in Belgium and presented to the heads of G-8 delegations, Medvedev said.
The question of a supranational currency "concerns everyone now, even the mints," Medvedev said. The test coin "means theyâre getting ready. I think it's a good sign that we understand how interdependent we are."
Medvedev has repeatedly called for creating a mix of regional reserve currencies as part of the drive to address the global financial crisis, while questioning the U.S. dollar's future as a global reserve currency. Russia's proposals for the G-20 meeting in London in April included the creation of a supranational currency.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=aeFVNYQpByU4
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More than a few questions would need to be resolved, before anything happens.
But, the following will do to start the ball rolling -
1) What backs this new currency? (GOLD ???)
2) What would it be called? (Amero - wouldn't think so???) |
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By: perceptions_now
11/07/2009
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Fed official warns against government audits
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Federal Reserve deputy chairman Donald Kohn on Thursday defended the US central bank's independence, saying congressional oversight could interfere with monetary policymaking.
If the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the investigative arm of Congress, were authorized to audit the Fed, that "could cast a chill on monetary policy deliberations," Kohn told a House of Representatives committee.
Link -
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090709/33/27cl3.html
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I would prefer the GOYA committee, to arrange for the FED to to exactly that.
And, for them to stop pandering to selected interests!
GOYA = Get Off Your Ar se |
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By: perceptions_now
12/07/2009
11:45 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Why Economic Dogma Threatens Our Future Prosperity
If estimates of Q2 corporate earnings are reasonably accurate, the current level of the Dow and S&P imply a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 40. Without a dramatic rebound in earnings in the next couple of quarters - and how likely is that? - the implication is that stock prices could fall another 50-60% before equities are priced to deliver their "normal" long-term annual returns of about 7% (real). And even from much lower levels, earning 7% per year from stocks would require that GDP and corporate profits resume growing at their rates from previous decades - something few respected forecasters believe is possible (elaborated on below).
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/148095-why-economi c-dogma-threatens-our-future-prosperity?source=ema il
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Wanted "dead or alive", a hollywood ending, for the GFC.
Unfortunately, this is not a movie and the real economy is in the process of finding a new level.
The major concern that I have, is that events re-inforce themselves and as the situation deteriorates, earning get worse, which makes the situation deteriorate further, etc and the 50-60% fall in equities becomes something much worse. |
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By: perceptions_now
12/07/2009
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Media Moguls Twitter Over Slump, Not Takeovers, in Sun Valley
New York-based News Corp., owner of the Fox network, Wall Street Journal, cable channels, film studios and satellite broadcasting interests, will hold on to its $6.05 billion in cash until the recession ends, Murdoch said.
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&si d=afywErsV631s
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Very Good decision, Rupert! |
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By: perceptions_now
12/07/2009
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Qatar Shares Fall to Two-Month Low on Oil; Nakilat Leads Drop
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Qatar stocks dropped to the lowest in more than two months, led by Industries Qatar after crude oil recorded the biggest weekly decline since January.
Industries Qatar, the second-biggest petrochemicals maker in the region, is headed for its lowest close since April 30. Qatar Gas Transport Co., the liquefied natural-gas shipper known as Nakilat, lost as much as 6.8 percent and Barwa Real Estate Co. declined as it considers combining units.
Oil for August delivery closed at $59.89 a barrel in New York on July 10, the lowest settlement in two months, on concern the global recession will curb energy consumption and as a stronger dollar reduced demand for commodities. U.S. stocks fell for a fourth week, matching the longest stretch of declines in a year, after consumer sentiment dropped more than estimated.
"Reality has caught up with petrochemical stocks," said Keith Edwards, senior executive director of Doha-based investment bank The First Investor. "There hasn't been an increase in global trade or global demand."
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=a3jM2HPihcQs
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There will be a continuation of the recent rise & fall, in oil, for some time yet.
And, that will be mirrored in the global commodity & financial markets.
However, within the overall rise & fall, the overall trend will be down.
It is also an understatement, to say "There hasn't been an increase in global trade or global demand." It would be more appropriate to say demand & usage, are slowly falling. |
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By: foxdemonau
12/07/2009
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH20Dj 01.html
THE COMING TRADE WAR, Part 6
Trade wars can lead to shooting wars
By Henry C K Liu
Within US policy circles, the rapid rise of China as a major force in the global economy is provoking a reconsideration of whether free trade is still in the US national interest.
The prospect that China can be a major economic power is feeding widespread paranoia in the United States. The fear is that developing nations, led by China and India, may out-compete the advanced nations for high-tech jobs while keeping the low-skill, labor-intensive manufacturing jobs they already own. China already is the world's biggest producer and exporter of consumer electronics and it is a matter of time before it becomes a major player in auto exports. Shipbuilding is now dominated by China and aircraft manufacturing will follow. The US Navy is now dependent on Asia, and eventually China, to build its new ships, and eventually the economics of trade will force the US Air Force to procure planes made in Asia and assembled in China.
cont.... |
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By: foxdemonau
12/07/2009
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The fear of China by the US dates back to almost two centuries of racial prejudice, ever since Western imperialism invaded Asia beginning in the early 19th century. Notwithstanding that it is natural, ceteris paribus, that the country with the world's largest population, an ancient culture and long history would again be a big player in the world economy as it modernizes, the fear that China might soon gain advantages of labor, capital and even technology that would allow it to dominate the world economy and gain the strategic advantages that go along with such domination is enough to push the world's only superpower openly to contemplate preemptive strikes against it. Furthermore, Chinese culture commands close affinity with the peoples of Asia, the main concentration of the world's population and a revived focal point of global geopolitics. Suddenly, socio-economic Darwinism of survival of the fittest, celebrated in the United States since its founding, is no longer welcome by US policymakers when the US is no longer the fittest and the survival of US hegemony is at stake. To many in the US, particularly the militant neo-conservatives, international trends of socio-economic Darwinism now need to be stopped by war.
China has more than 1.3 billion people, a fifth of the world's population, and a workforce of 700 million as against a US workforce of 147 million. To avoid being overtaken by China in aggregate national income, US wages would have to maintain a gap of five times Chinese wages. Historically based technological and economic advantages currently give US workers a nominal wage gap of more than 35:1 over Chinese workers, or 9:1 on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis. This comfortable gap is not based on current productive differentials but rather on unbalanced terms of trade and geopolitical incongruity left by history. Yet until wage parity is attained, free trade will continue to be driven by cross-border wage arbitrage in favor of China. But with wa ... |
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By: foxdemonau
12/07/2009
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| But with wage parity, the Chinese economy will be five times the size of the US economy, a prospect not welcomed by the US geopolitical calculations. It was its superior economy that enabled the US to emerge as victor in the two world wars and to prevail in the Cold War. |
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By: foxdemonau
12/07/2009
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| An interesting article by Henry C K Liu. Use the link provided to read the whole series. |
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Economic Downturn to Continue? |
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