By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
2:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Mate I will stake my reputation and any qualification I have gained in Economics, Accounting & Finance to tell you that this downturn is not going to be anywhere near as severe as you predict.
I see a return to growth for the US zone within the next two quarters and the Euro zone within the next three.
2010 will see small, slow recovery but from a position much better off than we feared 6 months back. |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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For predicting the slump, just a few get medals
IF ONLY these crystal balls always worked. A year ago, our panel thought Australia would muddle through the 2008-09 financial year without too much damage.
Professor Keen told us that growth in 2008-09 would shrink to zero. He forecast that unemployment would rise to 6 per cent, that the sharemarket would fall further, the budget would fall into deficit, and the Reserve Bank would be forced to cut interest rates significantly. By and large, all that has come true.
No one a year ago predicted a world recession, not even Keen, who thought it would be confined to chronic debtor countries such as the US and Australia.
The bad news is that Keen thinks 2009-10 will be much worse. He says Australia and the world are in the early stages of another Great Depression. The global boom of the past decade was financed largely by increasing leverage; we now face a decade or so of deleveraging.
Keen predicts that GDP will slump by 6 per cent in 2009-10, that unemployment will double to 12 per cent, the S&P/ASX 200 will shrink by a third to 2500 - and the Reserve Bank will end up cutting cash rates to 0.5 per cent. Others disagree.
I don't want to be accused of bias, but I hope we won't be handing Keen the Palme d'Or again next year.
Link -
http://www.businessday.com.au/business/for-predict ing-the-slump-just-a-few- get-medals-20090703-d7vr. html
Close Gaps
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I disagree that "no-one forsaw this Worldwide DOWnturn, there were a few about!
And, Andrei, I hope you are right, but I strongly suspect you are not!
Oh, and I wouldn't bet your qualifications, if I were you, which I am not. |
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By: thy.nemesis
8/07/2009
3:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Clearly, some have been lulled into a false sense of security because the global economy did not crash in one fell swoop...
This has simply allowed some of the world's biggest powermongers and parasites to rely on unprecedented corporate WEALTHfare to prop up markes, while they remove their capital from markets by stealth...
The underlying causes of the crises of capitalism have NOT been addressed - because our pollies lack the courage to challenge accepted economic dogma...
All the evidence suggests that global leaders are far from appreciating and accepting the need for a paradigm shift in global affairs - and therefore that the REAL crash is yet to come...
As one fictional post suggested earlier today, there is every chance that we will, in the not-too-distant future, awake to the news that the entire global financial system has dramatically and irretrievably crashed!
It is difficult the predict the nature and extent of the calamity and suffering that would inevitably follow - because society is far more specialised and urbanised and much less cohesive than it was in the 1930's - and most people have never been taught even basic skills for survival and self-reliance...
Luckily, Australia still has the capacity for a reasonably quick shift toward self-reliance - unlike many other countries... |
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By: thy.nemesis
8/07/2009
3:30 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Oooops...more typos - sorry! |
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By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
3:31 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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In preparation for my new job in Sept, I was doing some financial modelling this morning on the price of oil to 2030.
The consensus is actually that it will not be as steep as you are predicting.
Anyway, 2010 will see small returns to growth across the major economies. 2011 will see a period of consolidation but we won't see the double digit growths or anything like. People will be more cautious and regulatory institutions will tighten their grip a little.
There will be a continued shift to move offshore low value work to lower labour cost countries which will help with the bottom line to shareholders and drive profit growth.
I see a couple of reasonable, unspectacular growth years ahead. Which is a good thing in my opinion.
Skilled workers in this country will continue to benefit.
The key is not to drive them offshore and to continue to provide incentives to stay. |
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By: ms.cuteandcheeky
8/07/2009
3:34 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Skilled workers in this country will continue to benefit.
The key is not to drive them offshore and to continue to provide incentives to stay
- andrei
Which means I am in the right industry :)
<< smiles >> |
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By: dsmithy70
8/07/2009
3:35 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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In preparation for my new job in Sept, I was doing some financial modelling this morning on the price of oil to 2030.
The consensus is actually that it will not be as steep as you are predicting.
+++
Andrei, sorry to burst your bubble but the world is ending in 21/12/2012 the boards told me so yesterday!!!!!! |
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By: thy.nemesis
8/07/2009
3:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Why can some people not see, that rewarding short-term thinking, opportunism and disloyalty poses a significant risk to socio-economic stability!?
Anyone who is prepared to jump from ship to ship and leave their friends, family and country behind for short-term gain is not worth keeping here - they are counter-productive...
Seriously, Android, in the current climate of global socio-econo-political instability, the international disincentives to jumping ship probably outweigh anything that can be done at this end... |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"and therefore that the REAL crash is yet to come"
"Luckily, Australia still has the capacity for a reasonably quick shift toward self-reliance - unlike many other countries"
thy,
I would say -
Correct!
And, correct, we hope? |
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By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
4:19 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| LOL!!!!!!!!! |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"The consensus is actually that it will not be as steep as you are predicting."
Andrei,
Is that like the consensus, that there wasn't going to be any Global Downturn?
To what steep prediction, do you refer? |
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By: thy.nemesis
8/07/2009
4:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Watch out, Android...Karma is hot on your heels... |
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By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
4:24 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Anyone who is prepared to jump from ship to ship and leave their friends, family and country behind for short-term gain is not worth keeping here - they are counter-productive..."
As someone now who has had to leave friends and family three times to take up short term ex-pat deals, it is far from an easy thing to do.
It often involves a lot of family discussion, weighing up the pros and cons of financial gain vs loss of family support, upheaval of moving your goods again, settling down again etc etc - it is far from easy.
Such people deserve respect for being prepared to do this to gain a foothold.
My career has jumped three levels because of my willingness to move and to take on roles in parts of the world totally foreign to me.
Politically, it does so much good for your career and often there are huge financial reward to do so.
I am in a much better position financially as a result of moving around and taking ex-pat deals.
Such people are a benefit to a country, not a hindrance. You often don't get bottom level unskilled workhorses moving do you? These people contribute the least to the running of a country. One skilled worker is worth 50 of these people in tax revenue. |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:26 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Skilled workers in this country will continue to benefit."
ms.cuteandcheeky,
Yes, skilled workers will generally & progressively become more in demand, as the Baby Boomer Bunch continue to ramp up their retirements, over the next decade! |
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By: thy.nemesis
8/07/2009
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| LOL...Android...have you forgotten that you've previously boasted on here, about utilising at least one off-shore tax haven... |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Andrei, sorry to burst your bubble but the world is ending in 21/12/2012 the boards told me so yesterday!!!!!!"
dsmithy70,
You will have to stop going into those "the Sky is Falling" websites, they'll do you no good! |
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By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
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"Yes, skilled workers will generally & progressively become more in demand, as the Baby Boomer Bunch continue to ramp up their retirements, over the next decade!"
Correct!!
I can tell you skilled workers remain in such high demand in Australia, likewise in other parts of the world!
The ease with which my Canadian visa was available to be processed shows how desperate countries are becoming.
The key for Australia is to ensure that we have in place the right incentives, the right tax breaks, the right companies to attract and KEEP these people.
What's the point in driving skilled workers overseas in the future?
Do we want a country of base level unskilled, poorly educated workhorses?
This is Australia not Bangladesh.
It will never support the demands of an ageing population if we do not keep such people. |
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By: ms.cuteandcheeky
8/07/2009
4:36 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The key for Australia is to ensure that we have in place the right incentives, the right tax breaks, the right companies to attract and KEEP these people.
YES
YES
YES
<< smiles >> |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"As someone now who has had to leave friends and family three times to take up short term ex-pat deals, it is far from an easy thing to do.
It often involves a lot of family discussion, weighing up the pros and cons of financial gain vs loss of family support, upheaval of moving your goods again, settling down again etc etc - it is far from easy."
Andrei,
Yes, I agree, it is not easy!
That said and I generally don't like giving personal advice, nor to I often do it.
However, on this ocassion, in the final wash up, money comes a long way down the pecking order.
Number ONE, is always FAMILY, followed by Friends & Pets!
Trust me, on this one! |
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By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
4:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Number ONE, is always FAMILY, followed by Friends & Pets!"
I haven't had a pet since the rabbit when I was 8.
However I would take your point on family and friends.
Both are the most important to me.
That is why I would never make any move without discussing with both.
I always make sure I see my parents several times per year no matter where I live. |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
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"However I would take your point on family and friends.
Both are the most important to me.
That is why I would never make any move without discussing with both.
I always make sure I see my parents several times per year no matter where I live."
Andrei,
Then you are not too far gone, yet!
Redemption is possible? |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
4:47 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| PS - Try a dog, they do wonders! |
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By: ms.cuteandcheeky
8/07/2009
4:47 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| It's probably disruptive for your wife and kids too I bet hey Andrei. |
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By: andreihicks
8/07/2009
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Nothing has ever been more important to me than my family.
Hence why I would be very keen to move back to Great Britain for my next move. However sometimes it is just not possible. |
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By: humblegenius_fp
8/07/2009
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PS - Try a dog, they do wonders!
============
Try two, and only labs, best dogs ever! |
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