By: perceptions_now
27/05/2009
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Nouriel Roubini report (27/05/2009) -
"U.S. Home Prices Continue to Contract Sharply: No Recovery in Sight?
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index fell 18.7% y/y in March 2009 as record levels of inventories and foreclosures continued to drive down home prices. All 20 cities covered in the survey showed a year-on-year decrease in prices, with 9 of the 20 areas showing rates of decline of over 20% y/y. The m/m pace of decline in March was slower than in February for 9 cities (S&P)
As of March 2009, average home prices are at similar levels to what they were in Q2 2003. From the peak in mid-2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.1% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.2% (S&P)
The fourth year of the U.S. housing recession - and the worst since the Great Depression - is well on course. Total housing starts have plunged from the 2.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) peak of January 2006 all the way to the 458 thousand SAAR of April 2009 (the last data point available) - a dip of 80%. In the single family housing segment, annualized starts fell by 80% between January 2006 and January 2009. Single family starts seem to have stabilized since the January 2009 low of 357 thousand SAAR."
Australia's economic downtrun is around 12 months behind the US, this event has a long way to run.
We need to keep our resources in reserve, this is a marathon, not a sprint. |
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By: jonjonson56
27/05/2009
5:34 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Lots of figures that mean nothing to lots of people perceptions_now, is it your opinion that we have a long way to go our did you calculate it from those figures. I'm not having a shot at you, but I could not comment from those figures.
I don't think you should compare our downfall to theirs to such an extent. Our housing figures will never go down their track, our banks are still making money from loans and doing very nicely, thank you very much. Our major banks claim they are charging to cover their overseas borrowing losses when in fact they have never had it so sweet.
The few foreclosures that are/will happen here will be basically due to poor advise given. |
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By: jonjonson56
27/05/2009
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| But I must say that I certainly agree with you that we are at least 12 months behind, I think closer to 18 months. |
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By: bogarde73
27/05/2009
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I tend to agree with jonjonson. The old saying: what's good for GM is good for the US is not true anymore as is the saying if the US sneezes we all get a cold.
The US has its own tortured road to go down for quite a while, but it won't affect us anywhere as much as the fortunes of China & India. |
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By: pansi1951
27/05/2009
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<Economic Downturn to Continue?>
......................... .........................
I think so. We won't see the green shoots anytime soon. |
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By: perceptions_now
27/05/2009
6:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Our housing figures will never go down their track,"
jonjonson56,
Whilst we, in OZ, have historically high personal debt that is very unhealthy, I agree that we are better placed than the US & others, in housing & some other areas. However, housing will take a hit, just not as much.
The fact that we are relatively better placed, is due to some good decisions by both Labor & Liberal, although I must admit I am not a fan of politicians, in general.
I have passed on this and other "information", purely to put information into the public domain. You are therefore correct in your assertion that what then flows from that information, is my or anyone else's opionion or "perception" of that information.
That said, when it all boils down, we continually make "value judgements" or "perceptions" if you will, of all manner of things.
It is my perception that, "we are in for a long & difficult economic downturn", that the US is a central focus for these events, but not the prime influencing factors, as such.
Nevertheless, the US does still determine the economic health of the world & that together with these other prime factors will ensure there is a prolonged downturn!
Just how deep the downturn gets, will be seen in the rear view mirror?
PS - I also agree that the OZ banks seem to have done reasonably well, so far. |
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By: perceptions_now
27/05/2009
6:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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bogarde73,
I see from another thread that you have an impersonator, bogarde74. There are a few who confuse things with their Multiple Personally Disorder (MPD).
That said, the US does still determine the economic health of the world & that together with a few other prime factors will ensure there is a prolonged downturn!
Whilst Chindia is certainly a large influence on Australia, they are in turn influenced by the US, Europe & Others, we are all interconnect now, far more than ever before. |
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By: perceptions_now
27/05/2009
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"I think so. We won't see the green shoots anytime soon."
pansi1951,
There are green shoots and then, there is Smoke & Mirrors.
So far, most of what has been seen is Smoke & Mirrors! |
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By: andreihicks
27/05/2009
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| We're all dooooooomed!!!!!!!!!!! |
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By: pansi1951
27/05/2009
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<<So far, most of what has been seen is Smoke & Mirrors!>>
......................... ......................... .....
And so far, most of what has been said about the upturn is bs. |
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By: andreihicks
27/05/2009
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Do you guys do children's parties?
You really are quite uplifting chaps aren't you??? |
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By: jonjonson56
27/05/2009
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A very good post altogether perceptions_now and I totally agree with your comments.
The shame of it is that the US has dragged us in to this dilemma by their shortfalls, however, what we must consider is how much is our industry blaming our so called downturn on the global economy.
We have been riding on a resources boom for ten or more years now, so is this just a correction that was needed |
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By: casino_royale44r
27/05/2009
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By: andreihicks
1 minute ago
Re:Economic Downturn to Continue? (PREVIEW)
Do you guys do children's parties?
You really are quite uplifting chaps aren't you???
.....................
lol how's the little one andrei?? |
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By: pansi1951
27/05/2009
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<<We're all dooooooomed!!!!!!!!!!!>>
......................... ................
Nah! not the self sufficient ones. We knew in advance and prepared. We won't even lose our dignity. |
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By: andreihicks
27/05/2009
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All good thanks.
I had to leave the house at 5.45am today to travel up to the UK office which is a good 2 hours from my parents house and the good news is that she wasn't awake!! LOL |
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By: jonjonson56
27/05/2009
6:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Ahh! slr2007mclaren's apprentice has arrived |
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By: vegitamite97
27/05/2009
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Isnt it hard for Australia to be going through an economic downturn WHILE oweing so much on credit .
This I thought would be a time where money circulating is important but most australians must have a lack of money already due to our high credit debts.
So sometimes I thought it could end up being a double whammy for australia . Say , the mining boom has slowed , most people are credit out to the max , as well as other presssures on our economy , so how can we be in a better position really ....? |
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By: andreihicks
27/05/2009
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This Government borrowing so much really has not remotely helped the situation.
There has been little, if any, positives out of the stimulus payments and now we are all left with a bloody great big debt to pay back PLUS interest payments!! |
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By: casino_royale44r
27/05/2009
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By: jonjonson56
19 minutes ago
Re:Should the Aged Work for Dole ?. (PREVIEW)
By: casino_royale44r
stay here long enough say 30 mins and you will see how funny your post was!!! :-)
---------------
Let's go the other way casino----- it would be fair enough if you pair were arguing in a pub while drinking a beer, but you are throwing childish insults at each other that anybody from anywhere in the world can read. Doesn't make our Aussie mentality look to smart to anybody who wants to read either comments.
........................
ok
................
now i read this
By: jonjonson56
9 minutes ago
Re:Economic Downturn to Continue? (PREVIEW)
Ahh! slr2007mclaren's apprentice has arrived
....................
now lets go the other way jonjonson56 don't you think this is childish behaviour??? lol |
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By: jonjonson56
27/05/2009
6:58 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Agree, You may hold that over me forever |
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By: perceptions_now
27/05/2009
7:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"We're all dooooooomed!!!!!!!!!!!"
andreisonofslr,
This was meant to be "the information age"!
Did you miss getting the memo?
You only seem into dog-ma & self-interest!
By the way, I can do a good halloween. And, by the way, when did you say you where leaving? |
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By: andreihicks
27/05/2009
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From an Australian perspective, I am arriving not leaving.
Next week I am again back in your lovely country. |
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By: casino_royale44r
27/05/2009
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By: jonjonson56
2 minutes ago
Re:Economic Downturn to Continue? (PREVIEW)
Agree, You may hold that over me forever
......................... ....
LOL all water off a ducks back. |
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By: thy.nemesis
27/05/2009
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FFS, Android...what the feck were you and your wife thinking when you took your baby on an overseas trip, in notoriously unhygenic and confined spaces, amongst thousands of "middle class" cum wealthy Swine Flu incubators!?
Your arrogance and recklessness with your precious infant's life is astounding! |
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By: thy.nemesis
27/05/2009
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(insert "possible")
FFS, Android...what the feck were you and your wife thinking when you took your baby on an overseas trip, in notoriously unhygenic and confined spaces, amongst thousands of possible "middle class" cum wealthy Swine Flu incubators!?
Your arrogance and recklessness with your precious infant's life is astounding! |
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