By: lasty49
22/09/2008
10:12 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Good point. |
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By: reynard2008@y7mail.com
22/09/2008
9:38 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| every cahnce - the USD could drop really fast - which will throw all other currencies out of kilter - will we have a reserve currency by christmas? |
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By: lasty49
22/09/2008
9:03 am Yahoo! Profile:
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The old saying about when the U.S. sneezes we all catch a cold is no longer valid.
The U.S. is on life support and already the relatives are gathering to carve up the will.
So where does this take us?
I wouldnt be touching one U.S. asset class.They will take a long time to rebuild.The printing of more money in the U.S. will devalue the US dollar.This will only benefit the Aussie.Forget about our interest rates coming lower.This major step by the U.S. will overshadow the carry trade mentality. The Aussie is heading back to parity and beyond whether our interest rates fall or not. |
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By: toksira1
15/09/2008
6:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Why would anyone want parity for the Aussie $ ? |
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By: reynard2008@y7mail.com
15/08/2008
9:38 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| more likely manipulation - the market is being set up for something big - either some more really bad news first crash was about a year ago and there is a whole wave of ARM resets going on this month and through to October) or Iran (or both) |
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By: wolframtrader
15/08/2008
9:24 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| carry trade... |
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By: reynard2008@y7mail.com
6/08/2008
4:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| already cracked the champagne - it's going down thank goodness - may it return to 75 pronto |
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By: lasty49
6/08/2008
3:10 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Is the parity party finito?
Well Im not convinced it is.Sure the currency has been fuelled by interest rate differentials,strong commodity exports and a relatively healthy economy.
So whats changed?
Very little.A bit weaker in retail spending, interest rates still higher than most,exports in commodities still strong and our economy holding up again unlike some.
Australians have tightened their belts, therefore our imports should taper off and thats good for the currency.
Even when the currency was above .96 it wasnt convincing.
Technicals had it weak in the short term and the longs bailed spooked by interest rate falls.
Wow I never knew .25pct cut which is what most are projecting by year end could affect the currency by so much as a 7% fall.
If it forms a base around here, I think parity can still be reached.
Many will be reluctant to go long now and that means the Aussie may slowly ratchet up again by natural demand.
Dont take the champagne off ice just yet. |
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