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 Banks Going BAD
By: jacko654
24/10/2009
6:35 pm |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
5:59 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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" Certainly, the 'bull' market in gold and silver is far from over. The market is metamorphosizing into a new phase promising far higher prices than we even contemplate now.
What prices will gold and silver have then?
"The actual prices of gold and silver will become simply academic." "
http://goldforecaster.com/goldbullmarket.php |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
5:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Free adv "What has happened imperceptibly is a change in measuring value. Until now, everything was measured in the U.S. $. It was the ultimate measure of value for over half a century. With uncertainty, led by global central banks, other measures of value are now needed. Where can they be found, amongst other currencies?
The ailment ..ting the U.S. $ can affect other currencies, all of which are controlled ultimately by their central banks and governments. If the U.S. Administration canât hold financial confidence why should any other currency do so? The road down for the $ will eventually lead to something that cannot be debauched by governments. The actions of the Chinese and Russian central banks, tells us that they trust a âbasket of currenciesâ [which minimize the impact of any individual government] and, to some extent, gold.
For years now we have said a day will come when the gold price wonât be say $1,000, but that $1,000 will be worth an ounce of gold. Weâve arrived.
Where is the Gold Price going now?
For Subscribers only!
Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
5:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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" What concerns foreign holders of the $ is its exchange rate. This means far more than U.S. goods getting cheaper and European goods getting more expensive, it means the future worth of the $ in terms of all other currencies.
e.g. If Europe sells goods to China , it prices them in the U.S. $. The buyer and seller need to price those goods in a way that allows them to budget correctly and be able to pay correctly and make their profit on the deal. If the U.S. $ [which has nothing to do with the underlying transaction] falls, then Europe gets less Euros to pay the supplier. This gives a great incentive not to use the $ in these transactions. If that trend takes off, then the $ will be used less, globally, and cause an excess of dollars to float around the system, taking it even lower. The dollarâs 37% share of new reserves fell from about a 63% average since 1999.
The point for gold is that even central banks are wary of the U.S. $ and consequently expect uncertainty to spread like the plague through other dependent currencies, as they try to keep their exports competitive in the world market. Despite it being money in earlier times only, gold remains the only money that can be exchanged when confidence is lost and still hold its value. This reality is rapidly rushing at us and is why gold is rising in price. "
same source/article |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
5:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Watershed for the Monetary System
This showed a tipping of the see-saw against confidence in the monetary system. It was due to the realization that very little is going to be done to effectively reform the currency world and bring back stability to these markets. More than that, it was the realization that world governments just donât have the real political will to ensure a stable world currency system. There are just too many conflicts of interest for them to do so.
Meanwhile, the system decays on a broad front. The very fact that the hub of the currency world, the U.S. $ is losing favor so quickly sends out a bigger warning to investors and the global economy. Just take a look at what central banks have been doing in the last few months.
Foreign currency holdings grew by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion. Nations that report currency breakdowns put 63% of this new money into the ⬠and Yen in April, May, and June. Thatâs the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase. Until now China has expressed concern about the behavior of the $ alongside other nations but were hesitant to act like this, because of the damage it would do to the exchange rate of the $. Now the realization of the fact that the $ will weaken is prompting action.
Imagine if oil was priced in a âbasket of currencies, that diversification would be unstoppable and the $ would face a major crisis. Now, it is only a question of when."
Source: Why the Rise in the Gold Price is Different this Time
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
5:38 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Yes, the state of the $ is important in pricing gold and it is the âhubâ of the currency world, but to gaze at it alone is to ignore the much bigger world of gold in its entirety, acting together in synthesis, in deciding the gold price.
This is amply demonstrated by the fact that the U.S. $ is sitting not far off the same place, against the â¬, as it was when gold was just below $1,000. We now foresee a larger de-coupling from the $ by gold, as we move forward. Yes, the waves of the $ will ebb and flow and continue to cause traders to move the gold price against the $ as before, but the tide of investment demand and other factors in the gold market will flow and dominate these moves over time.
Why Different this Time?
As we wrote last week, [Now available to new subscribers on request, to gold-authenticmoney@iafri ca.com] while the facts of the article in the Independent [British] newspaper, informing the market that France, China, Russia and select Persian Gulf oil producers were going to price oil in a ânewâ currency were denied, the market is convinced that this will happen in time, even if it takes another decade. The reaction in the gold market was to bring in new investment demand via bullion itself, to prompt heavier central bank selling, to slow s *** sales and to cause traders to add some more gold to their holdings.
On top of the consolidation phase the gold price has been going through over the last 18+ months, this was a breakout pointing to an end of that phase. Now it sits on top of the $1,000 level, which forms a huge support to the price.
Watershed for the Monetary System
This showed a tipping of the see-saw against confidence in the monetary system. It was due to the realization that very little is going to be done to effectively reform the currency world and bring back stability to these markets. More than that, it was the realization that world governments just donât have the ... |
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By: brukevlay
24/10/2009
3:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"I can retire now???"
Are you a professor in WA? |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
3:04 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Scenario: The Government encourages every citizen to buy some gold, then the government buys lots more gold too...everyone wins and becomes a millionaire fast!!
I can retire now??? |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
2:57 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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What if China decides to increase its gold reserves to say 4,000-5,000 tonnes?
42,251.8 tonnes
25.7% Eurozone 10856.9
19.3% United States 8133.5
8.1% Germany 3412.6
7.6% International Monetary Fund 3217.3
5.9% France 2487.1
5.8% Italy 2451.8
2.6% SPDR Gold Trust (a Gold exchange-traded fund) 1104
2.5% People's Republic of China 4,523?? up from current levels of 1,054 tonnes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserves |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
2:45 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserves
"Gold reserves (or gold holdings) are held by central banks as a store of value. In 2006, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totaled 158,000 tonnes.[1] One tonne of gold equated to a value of US$30.27 million as of February 14, 2009 ($941.35/troy ounces)[2]. The total value of all gold ever mined would be US$4.78 trillion at that price.[note 1]
At the end of 2004, central banks and official organizations held 19% of all above-ground gold as a reserve asset.[3] About one percent of all above-ground gold (370 metric ..."
42,251.8 Tonnes:
25.7% Eurozone
19.3% United States
8.1% Germany
7.6% International Monetary Fund
5.9% France
5.8% Italy
2.6% SPDR Gold Trust (a Gold exchange-traded fund)
2.5% People's Republic of China |
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By: reynard2008@y7mail.com
24/10/2009
2:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Federal coffers running dry. An average of 10 banks have failed per month this year, and the federal coffer is thinning under the massive strain. The fund now stands at $7.5 billion, down significantly from $45 billion a year ago.
When the FDIC factors in expected closures, the agency says the fund is in the red and will likely remain there through 2012. Bank failure costs are expected to total $100 billion over the next four years, leaving regulators strapped for cash.
Last month, the FDIC discussed how to raise quick cash to replenish the fund. The agency proposed that banks prepay their deposit insurance premiums for the next three years. To top of page |
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By: reynard2008@y7mail.com
24/10/2009
2:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Why regional banks are failing. While larger financial institutions have received aid from the federal government, smaller banks have found themselves left adrift. Like their larger counterparts, many of these banks made risky loans to individuals and real estate developers during the boom years and are now facing large numbers of defaults as the recession drags on.
Rising unemployment has made it difficult for many individuals to keep up with expenses, and businesses are feeling the crunch of consumers' reduced spending power. As a result, regional banks are left holding loans their customers can't repay.
Problem banks list looms. The FDIC keeps a list of "problem banks," though it does not disclose the names to the general public out of fear that depositors at those institutions may prompt a "run on the bank."
In June, the agency said 416 banks were at risk of failure -- the highest level in 15 years. |
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By: brukevlay
24/10/2009
2:17 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Gold miners like CTO, KOR, etc that currently don't cost much to buy"
If you like them because of their fundamentals and their charts look encouraging, I have said that, then buy more on pullbacks rather than try to convert the clowns here. Most just want to gamble and make fools of themselves in many different ways. How many times have we told that idiot sushiboy we are different people? They refuse to listen so why bother? |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
2:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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RE: I am seriously beginning to form the opinion that gold will be the new USD - and oil and gas and maybe uranium will be priced in gold - in part because no country can trust another country not to crank up the printing presses eg "vs full faith of the US government"
You should be also seriously looking for low cost of production, long life, low risk gold mining companies which have not forward sold next years production etc etc...
What this further implies is that traditional banks need to change fast. For example, in China, ordinary people can hold RMB, USD, AUD, HKD etc in one bank account. Soon they will likely be able to hold GOLD at the post office/local bank, and maybe silver, so that they dont have to have gold at home or "under the mattress" so to speak. "
Any views here too please?
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prof,
Got a bad bit of reflux there, your statements are coming back up, again!
>>> Correct, I cant seem to disprove the theory we should be also seriously looking for low cost of production, long life, low risk gold mining companies which have not forward sold next years production etc etc..."
Gold miners like CTO, KOR, etc that currently don't cost much to buy |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
1:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The gold standard appeared to be highly successful from about 1870 to the beginning of World War I in 1914. During the so-called "classical" gold standard period, international trade and capital flows expanded markedly, and central banks experienced relatively few problems ensuring that their currencies retained their legal value. The gold standard was suspended during World War I, however, because of disruptions to trade and international capital flows and because countries needed more financial flexibility to finance their war efforts. (The United States remained technically on the gold standard throughout the war, but with many restrictions.) "
"The market crash of October 1929 showed, if anyone doubted it, that a concerted effort by the Fed can bring down stock prices. But the cost of this "victory" was very high. According to Friedman and Schwartz, the Fed's tight-money policies led to the onset of a recession in August 1929, according to the official dating by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The slowdown in economic activity, together with high interest rates, was in all likelihood the most important source of the stock market crash that followed in October. In other words, the market crash, rather than being the cause of the Depression, as popular legend has it, was in fact largely the result of an economic slowdown and the inappropriate monetary policies that preceded it. Of course, the stock market crash only worsened the economic situation, hurting consumer and business confidence and contributing to a still deeper downturn in 1930.
"Finally, perhaps the most important lesson of all is that price stability should be a key objective of monetary policy. By allowing persistent declines in the money supply and in the price level, the Federal Reserve of the late 1920s and 1930s greatly destabilized the U.S. economy and, through the workings of the gold standard, the economies of many other nations as well. "
http://www.federalreserve.gov/bo ... |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
1:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"In September 1931, following a period of financial upheaval in Europe that created concerns about British investments on the Continent, speculators attacked the British pound, presenting pounds to the Bank of England and demanding gold in return. Faced with the heavy demands of speculators for gold and a widespread loss of confidence in the pound, the Bank of England quickly depleted its gold reserves. Unable to continue supporting the pound at its official value, Great Britain was forced to leave the gold standard, allowing the pound to float freely, its value determined by market forces.
With the collapse of the pound, speculators turned their attention to the U.S. dollar, which (given the economic difficulties the United States was experiencing in the fall of 1931) looked to many to be the next currency in line for devaluation. Central banks as well as private investors converted a substantial quantity of dollar assets to gold in September and October of 1931, reducing the Federal Reserve's gold reserves. The speculative attack on the dollar also helped to create a panic in the U.S. banking system. Fearing imminent devaluation of the dollar, many foreign and domestic depositors withdrew their funds from U.S. banks in order to convert them into gold or other assets. The worsening economic situation also made depositors increasingly distrustful of banks as a place to keep their savings. During this period, deposit insurance was virtually nonexistent, so that the failure of a bank might cause depositors to lose all or most of their savings. Thus, depositors who feared that a bank might fail rushed to withdraw their funds. Banking panics, if severe enough, could become self-confirming prophecies. During the 1930s, thousands of U.S. banks experienced runs by depositors and subsequently failed. "
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2 004/200403022/default.htm |
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By: perceptions_now
24/10/2009
1:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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1) Gold is not only seen as a safe haven, it goes up on bad news and as you know there is a lot of that around. It also goes up on inflation, political unrest/uncertainty, wars, rising oil prices, other commodities such as copper and silver and now China telling it's citizens to buy gold.
2) So does one just say Oh gee, I don't want to take any chances with my money?
I'm not suggesting to do a Crazyfool and grab a bag full of the most speculative stuff you can find or do a Buffett and buy something and hold it till you croak but there is a happy medium and I think gold fits in that space.
==================
bruke,
1) Agreed, Gold is seen as a haven from many events!
2) That's a little more dependent on the individual perspective of where they are, where they think they want to go, how much time they have available and how much luck goes their way?
IF ANYONE TELLS YOU THEY HAVE IT ALL FIGURED OUT, THEY HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS, then you tell them they are simply ignorant of all of the facts, to put it in a nice manner!
Alternatively, you just tell them to go F??? themselves! |
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By: professor.inglis
24/10/2009
1:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Starting in 1929, the world would witness one of the greatest economic downturns ever recorded. Originating in the United States, the Great Depression began in late October with an unprecedented stock market crash. How could a twentieth century economy nearly collapse? The Great Depression provides an example of falling markets and widespread poverty. However, one significant outlier existed in the market at the time: gold industry. Exemplified through a brief analysis of Homestake Mining, gold industry stocks experienced extraordinary gains in share price and dividend payouts."
"Homestake stock sold for about $65 per share in 1929. By 1933, the average stock price for Homestake was around $370. This represents a gain of more than 450% over the course of four years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 89% over the three years between its 1929 peak to its 1932 bottom. Not only did stock prices increase for Homestake, but dividends also skyrocketed. In 1929, Homestake paid dividends of about $7 per share. By 1935, dividends had increased to $56, a staggering rate of 800% over six years. During these deflationary times, gold stocks not only retained their values but provided significant returns for investors."
http://www.ezinearticles.com/?Gold-Stocks-and-Gold -Price-During-the-Great-Depression&id=2658565
and I am not bruce |
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By: perceptions_now
24/10/2009
1:31 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Yes, but do I put my money in a bank? Pun intended
===========
bruke,
A dilemma here, a dilemma there, dilemma's everywhere? |
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By: chris_1991_h
24/10/2009
1:05 pm |
Message deleted. |
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By: brukevlay
24/10/2009
1:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions,
Gold is not only seen as a safe haven, it goes up on bad news and as you know there is a lot of that around. It also goes up on inflation, political unrest/uncertainty, wars, rising oil prices, other commodities such as copper and silver and now China telling it's citizens to buy gold.
So does one just say Oh gee, I don't want to take any chances with my money?
I'm not suggesting to do a Crazyfool and grab a bag full of the most speculative stuff you can find or do a Buffett and buy something and hold it till you croak but there is a happy medium and I think gold fits in that space. |
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By: jasonhardy1000
24/10/2009
12:54 pm |
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By: brukevlay
24/10/2009
12:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Another fool. Another non-learner. This place is crowded with creepers and fools. |
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By: jasonhardy1000
24/10/2009
12:45 pm |
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By: brukevlay
24/10/2009
12:42 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Finally, whilst Gold could live up to its reputation as a safe haven, I must say there are no guarantees in life!"
Yes, but do I put my money in a bank? Pun intended. |
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