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 Banks Going BAD
By: perceptions_now
17/07/2009
11:29 am Yahoo! Profile:
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""A question for viewers?
Is $20 Oil, GOOD or BAD?"
It's good if you drive a 4WD as I do.
It's bad if you want to invest in the stock market.
(low oil price = poor world wide fundamentals)
It's good if you want to invest in gold.
(A high oil price adds to inflation but what I said above
about poor world wide fundamentals will be in force to override that)"
================
bruke,
Well put!
Let me put it this way.
A LOW CRUDE OIL PRICE, IS actually, both GOOD AND BAD, DEPENDING ON YOUR PERSPECTIVE, at the time.
CRUDE OIL, is only one basic "product", but it SUFFERS FROM SCHIZOPHENIA.
IF the OIL price IS LOW, then the CONSUMERS, at the petrol pump, WILL SAY LOW IS GOOD.
HOWEVER, LOW OIL PRICES, MEANS that OIL USAGE IS TOO LOW, as the ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS ARE POOR AND from the overall perspective, LOW OIL PRICE IS BAD.
Of course, FROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL VIEW, it goes without saying that, LOWER OIL & coal USAGE, due to a lessoning impact of co2 and other related issues, IS GOOD.
CHANGE TO NEW CHARACTER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Conversely, HIGH OIL PRICES, are not well received by the consumer at the pump and ARE VIEWED AS BAD.
Of course, HIGH OIL PRICES, MEANS that OIL USAGE IS TOO HIGH, COMPARED TO PRODUCTION, which is falling due to Peak Oil.
SO, with high Oil prices, THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN TOO GOOD, the cost equation kicks in, IT THEN FALLS, as production continues to ebb ON THE REALISATION PRODUCTION CAN NOT KEEP UP WITH DEMAND, so high Oil is BAD.
FINALLY, HIGH USAGE & PRICE OF OIL, from THE ENVIRONMENTAL VIEW, it goes without saying, IS BAD, as it continues to pollute & encourage the further exploration & usage of Oil & Coal. |
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By: brukevlay
17/07/2009
10:46 am Yahoo! Profile:
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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1247771829. php
Don't read any of it Crazyfool, It is negative stuff.
Go back to sticking your head in the sand.
Preferably quicksand. |
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By: brukevlay
17/07/2009
10:21 am Yahoo! Profile:
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I always put things well on this perceptions.
The only thing I'm having difficulty with is putting Crazyfool well out of it.
He is like the Mafia of the old days. Untouchable. |
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By: perceptions_now
17/07/2009
10:13 am Yahoo! Profile:
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""A question for viewers?
Is $20 Oil, GOOD or BAD?"
It's good if you drive a 4WD as I do.
It's bad if you want to invest in the stock market.
(low oil price = poor world wide fundamentals)
It's good if you want to invest in gold.
(A high oil price adds to inflation but what I said above
about poor world wide fundamentals will be in force to override that)"
bruke,
Well put! |
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By: brukevlay
17/07/2009
3:01 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"A question for viewers?
Is $20 Oil, GOOD or BAD?"
It's good if you drive a 4WD as I do.
It's bad if you want to invest in the stock market.
(low oil price = poor world wide fundamentals)
It's good if you want to invest in gold.
(A high oil price adds to inflation but what I said above
about poor world wide fundamentals will be in force to override that) |
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By: hdmausguy
16/07/2009
11:17 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Some predictions from some financial gurus I noted in recent months. April 2009 Dr. Marc Faber "Markets down 10% to sometime in july,then a rally to sept/oct.Then highly likely another downturn similar to 2008." April 2009 Jim Rogers ex USA now based in asia."Do as much business with asia as possible.Buy commodities. USA currency crisis July/August. June 2009 Harry Dent Int.forecaster abc radio, "fluctuations for next month or so then gains for a few months, all ords to 4500 and Dow to 10,000. Another crash late 2009 & into 2010 all europe & USA hit hard". |
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By: perceptions_now
16/07/2009
8:47 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Verleger Predicts $20 Oil This Year on 'Devastating' Crude Glut
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger.
A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.
"The economic situation is not getting better," Verleger, 64, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, said in a telephone interview yesterday. "Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and it's a warm winter, it's going to be devastating."
Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=auTu3RI8WC1A
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A question for viewers?
Is $20 Oil, GOOD or BAD? |
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By: perceptions_now
15/07/2009
8:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Whitney has the money!
=================
Goldman Sachs Posts Record Profit, Beating Estimates
July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds.
Second-quarter net income was $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. That surpassed the $3.65 per-share average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and was 65 percent higher than last year’s second quarter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si d=ayS40SuxDlU0 |
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By: brukevlay
14/07/2009
6:46 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"rape & pillage totem pole."
Pirate says he likes to rape & pillage and wants to send me a box of chocolates.
Foolhardy want me for a friend. He talks about "many moons" and I told him I have no intention of smoking the Peace Pipe with him and to go and make friends with a Totem Pole.
As they say....With friends like those two, who needs enemies? |
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By: perceptions_now
14/07/2009
4:54 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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I would go with Witney's estimate, she is usually on the money.
And, they (Goldman Sachs) are close to the top of the "rape & pilage" totem pole. |
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By: toby_h@ymail.com
14/07/2009
11:56 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Goldman Sachs earning due before US markets open tonight..
"no one really knows what these companies earned, but analysts' estimates provide a useful metric for comparison. For Goldman Sachs, analysts' estimates call for EPS of $3.48. Ms. Whitney believes that EPS will come in around $4.65."
- also Junes US retail sales figures tonight.. |
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By: perceptions_now
12/07/2009
11:47 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Why Economic Dogma Threatens Our Future Prosperity
If estimates of Q2 corporate earnings are reasonably accurate, the current level of the Dow and S&P imply a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 40. Without a dramatic rebound in earnings in the next couple of quarters - and how likely is that? - the implication is that stock prices could fall another 50-60% before equities are priced to deliver their "normal" long-term annual returns of about 7% (real). And even from much lower levels, earning 7% per year from stocks would require that GDP and corporate profits resume growing at their rates from previous decades - something few respected forecasters believe is possible (elaborated on below).
Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/148095-why-economi c-dogma-threatens-our-fut ure-prosperity?source=ema il
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Wanted "dead or alive", a hollywood ending, for the GFC.
Unfortunately, this is not a movie and the real economy is in the process of finding a new level.
The major concern that I have, is that events re-inforce themselves and as the situation deteriorates, earning get worse, which makes the situation deteriorate further, etc and the 50-60% fall in equities becomes something much worse. |
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By: brukevlay
11/07/2009
10:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| FOYSC |
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By: silver_dropping_hard
11/07/2009
10:02 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Bruce,
Silver is tanking hard....
You were wrong as usual buddy!
Will you be upset when Jason buys silver for near half the price you paid??? |
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By: brukevlay
11/07/2009
6:15 am Yahoo! Profile:
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If you link this video with my thread and this one about banks going bad, it seems history WILL be repeated unless Ron Paul can succeed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ&feature =related
Will he succeed?
The "Federal" Reserve are renown for getting what they want.
Buy, murder, whatever.
It will be interesting to see the outcome.
One big plus for Ron Paul is more sheeple are starting to turn into people. |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
10:48 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund Reserve Ratio Plunges To 0.27% Of Deposits
The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund has plunged to an all time low of just $13 billion as of March 31, or 0.27% of $4.8 trillion in insured deposits. It is worth nothing that since March 31, 15 new banks have failed which includes the biggest one so far this year, BankUnited (which Marla has a special fondness for in her heart and will be providing some ongoing entertainment on). It is thus safe to say that the $13 billion has been spent in the past 2 months, especially since banks no longer issue debt under the TLGP (of which, nonetheless, there was $336 billion outstanding at March 31 - somehow when banks are talking about repaying TARP, their FDIC-guaranteed debt, by far the biggest crutch to the banking system, is conveniently never mentioned) and therefore no longer pay FDIC guaranteed debt issuance associated fees.
Link -
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/fdics-deposi t-insurance-fund-reserve. html
Close gaps
===================
The graph in the above link, shows the usual FDIC fund balance of around $50 Billion and the usual Reserve Ratio as around 1.25%.
In short, the FDIC is by now, very short, of funds, to fund depositors funds, as the US banks continue to be under-funded and go BELLY UP!
So, they along with others, will be looking to the FED's & the FED, to bail them out, as well! |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
5:25 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Nouriel Roubini Article -
Credit Crunch in the Eurozone: Bank Lending to the Private Sector Starts Contracting
ECB June Monthly Bulletin: Loans to non-financial corporations slowed to 4.4%y/y in May 2009 from 5.3% in April 2009, with the monthly flow turning negative by EUR5 billion. Loans to households declined on a year over year basis by 0.2% in May after recording zero growth in April.
Wolfgang Munchau: "Companies who file for bankruptcy increasingly blame the banks, and the number of bankruptcies is rising rapidly. The problem is that the trillions of dollars and euros in liquidity are not getting through. There is no point in blaming the banks. In fact, banks act responsibly when they deny credit to customers whom they judge to have lost creditworthiness." (Financial Times) |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
3:04 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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For predicting the slump, just a few get medals
IF ONLY these crystal balls always worked. A year ago, our panel thought Australia would muddle through the 2008-09 financial year without too much damage.
Professor Keen told us that growth in 2008-09 would shrink to zero. He forecast that unemployment would rise to 6 per cent, that the sharemarket would fall further, the budget would fall into deficit, and the Reserve Bank would be forced to cut interest rates significantly. By and large, all that has come true.
No one a year ago predicted a world recession, not even Keen, who thought it would be confined to chronic debtor countries such as the US and Australia.
The bad news is that Keen thinks 2009-10 will be much worse. He says Australia and the world are in the early stages of another Great Depression. The global boom of the past decade was financed largely by increasing leverage; we now face a decade or so of deleveraging.
Keen predicts that GDP will slump by 6 per cent in 2009-10, that unemployment will double to 12 per cent, the S&P/ASX 200 will shrink by a third to 2500 - and the Reserve Bank will end up cutting cash rates to 0.5 per cent. Others disagree.
I don't want to be accused of bias, but I hope we won't be handing Keen the Palme d'Or again next year.
Link -
http://www.businessday.com.au/business/for-predict ing-the-slump-just-a-few- get-medals-20090703-d7vr. html
Close Gaps
===================
PS - I disagree that "no-one forsaw this Worldwide DOWnturn, there were a few about! |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
2:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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bruke,
Thanks for the link! |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
2:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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U.S.'s debtor status worsens dramatically
At the end of 2008, America's net international investment position was minus $3.47 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Foreigners now hold nearly 50 percent of the federal government's publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their purchase of future U.S. Treasury debt securities, without even dumping their current holdings, U.S. interest rates could soar and the dollar could collapse, analysts fear.
"Three decades of massive [trade] deficits have converted the United States from the world's banker - able to 'pay any price and bear any burden in the cause of freedom' - to the world's largest debtor, utterly dependent on China and other foreign interests,"
Over the years, America's status as a creditor or debtor has changed enormously. In the early 1980s, America's net international investment position averaged $350 billion, or 11 percent of GDP, making the United States the world's largest creditor. Today, it is the world's largest debtor -by far.
The People's Bank of China also warned the United States on Friday about its very expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.
"We are so deeply in debt and this money is so liquid that it hamstrings our monetary, fiscal and trade policies," Mr. McMillion said. "We've really mortgaged our financial future."
Link -
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/27/us s-debtor-status-worsens-dramatically/ |
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By: brainerodedbruce@ymail.com
8/07/2009
2:42 pm |
Message deleted. |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
2:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Look at the forum imbecile.
It's empty!"
And, Jim, that surprises you?
Why? |
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By: brukevlay
8/07/2009
1:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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He did the same one twice.
Can you believe this clown? |
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By: brukevlay
8/07/2009
1:31 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/27/us s-debtor-status-worsens-dramatically/
BTW perceptions, I just asked Crazy to make some intelligent posts and look what he did.
Do you think I was asking for too much? |
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By: perceptions_now
8/07/2009
12:42 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Following are Debt figures, by nation, as provided by CNBC. Whilst I can not vouch for the accuracy, they may provide a snapshot and give some guidance, in some areas.
Also following is a link to the top countries, by GDP size, for reference. These figures may answer some questions and raise others.
Something's which will become apparent, as the next few years pass, is that DGP, EDC & GED will increase, whilst GDP will decrease!
Note: All countries are among the top 50 largest economies, as surveyed by CNBC and some figures could be slightly outdated. In particular, those countries that have put in large Stimuli (eg. US & Australia)may have undergone substantial changes.
Debt to GDP % (DEBT = Total External Govt & Private Debt)
1) Ireland - 881%DGP, $549,819 EDC, $2.3T GED, $285B GDP
2) UK - 336% DGP, $153,616 EDC, $9.4T GED, $2.8T GDP
3) Belgium - 327% DGP, $155,362 EDC, $$660B GED, $495B GDP
4) Hong Kong - 295% DGP, $85,539 EDC, $660B GED, $223B GDP
5) Netherlands - 268% DGP, $145,959 EDC, $2.4T GED, $909B GDP
6) Switzerland - 264% DGP, $171,478 EDC, $1.3T GED, $492B GDP
7) Austria - 191% DGP, $100,787 EDC, $827B GED, $432B GDP
8) France - 168% DGP, $78,070 EDC, $5.0T GED, $3.0T GDP
9) Denmark - 159% DGP, $107,026 EDC, $589B GED, $370B GDP
10) Germany - 137% DGP, $63,757 EDC, $5.2T GED, $3.8T GDP
11) Spain - 137% DGP, $57,090 EDC, $2.3T GED, $1,7T GDP
12) Sweden - 129% DGP, $73,245 EDC, $663B GED, $513B GDP
13) Finland - 116% DGP, $62,579 EDC, $328B GED, $281 GDP
14) Norway - 114% DGP, $118,353 EDC, $551B GED, $481B GDP
15) USA - 95% DGP, $44,358 EDC, $13.6T GED, $14.3T GDP
DGP = Debt % to Gross domestic Product
EDC = External Debt per Capita
GED = Gross External Debt
GDP = Gross Domestic Product
CNBC Link -
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/?slide=1
GDP Site -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ GDP_(nominal) |
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