By: rareearthjunior
31/10/2007
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Amazing how speculation rolls around.
The german 'chat site' (aktien.wallstreet-online .de) has word that toyota have a 10 year deal for the arafura ree ! ? !
Who knows? Fun until announcement becomes clear.
:) |
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By: rareearthfan
31/10/2007
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Hi all,
Jc, I think you may well be on the money.
Probably a 'small' cap raising between 15&20m. There is pros and cons to this but in some ways it makes sense to get cash whilst the market is buoyant. The market can change quickly.
Mac would be unlikely to do raising I feel, but what makes this much more interesting is that Nicholas Curtis (Lynas Executive Chairman) is ex high power Mac Bank boy! |
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By: rareearthjunior
31/10/2007
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High jc and others.
Well, we'll wait to see whats on offer - eh.
Is it 10m , 15m ? @ $1, gives reasonable boost to coffers.
Other point to note on report, is the 'conservative' nature of all calcs.
Yet to do quick home-work on summary of anticipated values vs current rates. Quite an advance I'm certain.
Ree rates for the dif items, is in favour of arafura's resource as % of total!
Cheers :) |
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By: greggroach2003
31/10/2007
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G'day JC. Either way it (MBL involvement) has to be a positive for ARU - as they would reject funding operations if not feasible and would not invest for same reasons. I think they are on the way back...but for how long ?
Just had a plough through the LYC report..v v encouraging - but as you said - nothing doing till after Xmas at least. This is probably well reflected in todays market prices - both even - flat as a sh!t carters hat !..although ARU in a halt. Patience is the key..and with an almost monopoly outside China - and Malawi and maybe more mines coming on..undoubted rises in the price of REEs...future remains very bright indeed.
G |
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By: jcho5967
31/10/2007
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| im doing well on tty :) just mentioning it b/c TTY is running on frances creek which it bought of aru. :) p.s. mbl may be doing part of the placement or investing itself - im trying to find out. |
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By: jcho5967
31/10/2007
11:41 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| intersuisse report out target price $1.50 for aru |
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By: jcho5967
31/10/2007
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| aru - placement at $1.00. Macquarie have got some. :) |
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By: jcho5967
31/10/2007
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g'day gregg: at present there is no reason to expect major news from lyc over the next few months so the stock price may be suffering from the lack of a visible catalyst. the key for me is that the story is very intact and unfolding as expected (i.e. RE demand and the ability to do great deals as a non-chinese supplier). also RE prices firming so hopefully next week mt weld RE pricing will be up again. further i wouldnt be surprised if LYC announces the acquisition of more deposits which would be great. at $4m malawi looks like a steal given its level of development. will make lyc more valuable if RE prices rise as expected. multi mine cos are more vlauable than single!
ARU-well REJ and REF whatever the news is were in for the ride! at best its a JV partner :) but possibly an issue to raise funds to progress Nolans. U hearing anything?
jc |
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By: greggroach2003
31/10/2007
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G'day JC and Gary and REJ
All looks positive - but market taking time to react. Have you noticed market depth for ARU ? As at about 1 minute ago the buy was 1.195 and sell offer at 1.17...? What da ? Back later ...
Regards
G |
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By: jcho5967
31/10/2007
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lyc qtly reads very well. interesting point that indus facility required re-negotiation post the sub-prime concern. Malawi resource look slike a steal! fully permitted. already been thru the pilot plant testing stage! it seems more advanced than nolans. jc
p.s. further to ref/rejs post re RE price weakness recently lyc said it was seasonal and i note that prices have begun to firm in the last 3 weeks. |
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By: jcho5967
31/10/2007
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Hi All: Re ARU's Qtly, heres what I liked/was encouraged by …
1. Chemical costs were 70% of the AUD$350m in operating costs. These were based on chemicals used in bench tests which tend to result in overestimation of actual chemicals required. The pilot plant will firm up those numbers in early 08.
2. Also assumed all Chemicals imported which included $60m in additional transportation cots. They want to produce on site. That’s almost 20% of operating costs.
3. Explained why capital costs were conservative with $180m first-fill costs and $120m contingencies and 10% escalation in capital costs until construction.
4. Prices used are below spot – except for Ur. Adjusting Ur back to US$80/lb cost the co. $10m out of a total $410m in revenue.
5. Escalation: “Analysis without escalation still returns very positive valuations”. This could mean without cost and commodity price escalations or just without commodity price escalations (probably the former).
Conclusion: It appears that the PFS fell short of market expectaitons. This was follwed by the AFR article which drove concerns that Nolans was uneconomic in the absence of price rises. Now it is clear that this cannot be determined from the PFS as there is considerable scope for cost savings and that the pfs forms the basis for identifying areas of savings. For Nolans it appears cost savings will be substantial such that the project has a strong likelihood of being quite economic. This will not be known until after the results of the pilot plant. Then the DFS should make even more certain.
Obviously subject to the general market condiitons stock price should at least stabilise.
REF, REJ - any other views?
jc |
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By: rareearthjunior
30/10/2007
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hi rich,
you mean lynas; other ref is to arafura.
Jc ~ figures conservative to give $60m profit on 20,000tn/p.a.
See the portion on possible raise to $120m p.a., if can produce chem on-site?
On matter of gold, kurinelli soil results are pending.
Maybe further scope for aru, jc :)
Other o/seas market that has large following in aru, has finally seen a dif story, and forging back in.
Cheers. |
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By: richard_vanslyke
30/10/2007
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Here is the new report:
http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Repo rts/2007_Annual_Report_-_WEBSITE_version.pdf |
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By: jcho5967
30/10/2007
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| hi ref, rej and gregg: first glance of aru's qtly indicates that the md may have been misquoted. esp where it says that nolans still generates good profits w/o escalations. seems to fly in the face of AFR quote that nolans is not economic with prices at current levels. may still be life in this baby. hopefull a good reception in honk kong next week. jc |
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By: rareearthjunior
30/10/2007
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Well to all those wondering about Arafura's fiqures / profitability factor, check the latest summary posted today! :)
Todays correction is only the start, if we read between the lines!
Just a thought.
Cheers. |
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By: rareearthjunior
26/10/2007
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Thanks ref.
Aru holders would have received their report in mail yesterday.
Gleening through last night, all appears to be fine in many ways.
Positive vibes with partnership for development; potential for further + news on drilling; + future for ALL their resources / leases; Gvt grant assisting in the processing trial in Sydney.
Options for Staff of no concern to me ~ values appear great incentive to move the company forward.
Maybe the hype about un-profitable Nolans was taken out of context? If for example, you took one, two, or three of the other components out of the resource, and were left with the cost recovery on Just the ree, then it would be correct - i'd asssume based on processing cost hinted.
However, the processing would be dif if Nolans didn't have the other, value adding, raw materials. Therefore the processing cost vs end product $ would be adjusted accordingly.
Just a thought :) |
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By: rareearthfan
25/10/2007
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rareearthjunior, dont count on Jervois Iron; but feel pretty safe with Vanadium. 2 Rounds of drilling and there could be a resource.
Hard to tell if a time for top up, market is a funny machine; but look for news on the horizon. |
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By: rareearthjunior
25/10/2007
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With respect to the ree price list, as China becomes more aware of profitable companies, providing dividends - even if owned and run by the Govt., the ree price will need to rise if as reports have noted, the cost to produce ree from the raw mining is so great.
Assume to-date, this may not have been a priority in China?
Pollution and other possible negative environmental factors are also playing a greater part in the global marketing and sales of product.
Probably hear more about these points after the conference next month.
Pity can't make it !
(to the conference). :) |
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By: sunwin2
24/10/2007
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Hi there Gregg,
thanks for welcoming me back - but I've always been here, just sneaking about quietly... :)
What jc said abt LYC does make sense of course, cld not agree more (otherwise I'd be outta here already). Provided that management avoids any serious blunders in strategic & tactical ops from now on, but there I'm more confident with LYC than ARU...
ARU mgt has lost tremendous credit (if not credibility) here among the German investor community. And if I check today's sp it looks as if the same thing is happening down under... hope they'll be grilled by some stockholders at the conference, there's a huge need to restore confidence and if they don't improve, well then they could be out of it faster than they think...
@bprofess: Yeah, BHP... held them for a looong time, when they were going sideways all the while - too boring. Missed to jump back in in August. But maybe LYC (and, who knows, even ARU?) will eventually throw in a life-saver for me after all? :)
Best of luck to us all,
Gary |
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By: greggroach2003
24/10/2007
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| Aware of this BP - but what is your point ? |
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By: bprofess
24/10/2007
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| BHP is producing-LYC is not-yet!!! |
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By: greggroach2003
24/10/2007
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| Mate - Don't remind me of LYC at 86. I thought they were going lower so waited to top up...and missed the boat : (. I guess where there is life there is hope for ARU - so hopefully something will emerge...or RE prices will increase sufficiently and timely enough that Nolans will be a feasible project in the near term. |
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By: jcho5967
24/10/2007
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| hi gregg: aru - yes its like looking into a chasm. always difficult to know with emergers but i take solace in the following ... 1. they tend to look weakest and worst at the bottom (remember when lyc was 86c looked like it was going a lot lower at the time). 2. they can rebound instantly on new good news. we do have the hk event in just over a week (but im probably being a bit too hopeful to expect it to run after that but you never know e.g. we could wake up in a week and find a RE end user on the register and proposing a financing deal). 3. 80%+of my RE exposure is in LYC so im happy with a bit of high octane in the form of aru. Wont buy more though. jc p.s. go apple remember RE used in iPods!! :) |
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By: greggroach2003
24/10/2007
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PS Hi there Gary...good to hear from you !
Regards
G |
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By: greggroach2003
24/10/2007
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G'day JC and REJ
I agree - sensational in depth answer, once again JC..thank you very much. I do understand the employee options ...just dont like them very much - but as you say -they are very much part and parcel of the business. You also cleared up my misconception that $2.50 was an absolute ceiling for the LYC share price...so glad to know there is scope to go much higher.
There is an item in todays AFR - althgouh they get mentioned approximately once in a 2 page article about the ASX biggest movers over the year. LYC ranked 8th and I think the No 1 was Murchison metals. Hopefully all these little mentions here and there will make them more widely known to the greater market. UP 5.5 today - regaining what they dropped yesterday - ARU down 13c to $0.98. Is this a price to top up - or to cut your losses at ? |
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