By: greggroach2003
4/08/2007
8:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| ...off to the slaughter. |
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By: brukevlay
4/08/2007
8:54 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello Greg.
That's putting it mildly. When a a sheep gets rooted it has little lambs. The little lambs follow the mother arond. The US is the mother sheep. We are one of the little lambs. |
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By: greggroach2003
4/08/2007
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| G'day Bruke. So the US is rooted ? |
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By: brukevlay
4/08/2007
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Most of this is "borrowed."
When reality sets in, housing prices will collapse. Today’s announcement that Wells Fargo is raising rates on prime jumbo mortgages (a significant percentage of California homes fall into that category) to 8% from 6 7/8%, will help accelerate this process. As potential home buyers will once again be required to fully document their incomes, provide 20% down payments, and pay 8% annually on fully amortized mortgages, home affordability will be out of the question unless prices fall sharply.
When real estate prices collapse, trillions of dollars of home equity will be wiped out, with disastrous repercussions for an American economy addicted to consumer spending. Though many consumers will see their home equity vanish, their mortgage debt, much of which will become more burdensome once adjustable rates reset much higher, will remain. Flat broke and facing rising mortgage payments, as well as higher gas and food prices, consumers will severely pull back on discretionary spending. As millions lose their jobs as a result of this retrenchment, the recession will kick into high gear, causing even greater damage to the real estate market, the dollar, bonds, and the economy.
Notice he said "when" not if. It most certainly IS when not and not if.
More later smart, but back your comment: Some time ago you were all for investing in the US. Then you had something of a change of mind. Now lately it seems you have had another change. What I put above will not change, except to get worse. Take my point? |
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By: brukevlay
4/08/2007
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Some of the following are my comments. Some I have "borrowed' from others but if I did not agree with them I would not be putting it here.
Amid the recent stock market weakness, the pundits are virtually unanimous in their claims that good underlying economic fundamentals are being trumped by irrational fear. However, if investors understood just how bad the fundamentals for the U.S. economy really are, they would dump stocks even faster.
Once foreign and domestic holders of greenbacks understand the severity of the risks facing the U.S. economy, they will dump dollars hand-over-fist. As the value of the dollar falls, interest rates and consumer prices will rise. This will compound the problems in the housing and mortgage markets, as well as for the overall U.S. economy, engendering even more dollar selling.
For now, U.S. Treasury bonds have benefited from the so-called "flight to quality". Once investors realize that Treasuries can not protect them against the falling dollar, safe haven money will flee Treasuries as well. As interest rates rise, the problems for the economy will only intensify. If the "Federal" Reserve reduces short-term rates to cushion the blow, Treasuries will come under even greater selling pressure. So in effect, any attempt by the Fed to reduce interest rates to bolster housing will backfire, as rising long term yields will only put additional nails in the housing coffin.
Look at the dollar chart V the Euro. Your dollar, just like almost everything else there, is being manipulated. I think there will come a time when it will be impossible to hold it above its support (78-80) When that happens, and it could be anytime, I don't have to tell you the consequences. I predict recession for sure. Some say world wide depression. I'm not qualified to say but I listen those who are.
I know you will read this. Others stuck in their ways won't listen. They seldom do......continued. |
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By: brukevlay
4/08/2007
7:53 am Yahoo! Profile:
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brukevlay
Can you clarify?
The markets are ever changing and if you do not understand that, you are in for world of hurting"
http://www.apfn.net/Doc-100_bankruptcy31.htm
I understand it much more than most smart, It's the message I have been trying to tell people, one in particular, but they prefer to argue not only with me but with the market in general and as you will know that is the last thing you do. Their main reason for doing this is because resources are in a bull market and the ones they like have good fundamentals. I agree with both those statements. However one does not go against the prevailing sentiment no matter what.
It is not unusual for a market to to correct after hitting an ATH and this is what is happening now. So not only have you got the resources sector out of favor, you also have the whole market going down. As I said before now is not a time to "buy in gloom sell in boom" now is a time to hold nothing, because things are going to get more gloomy. Now is a time to sell into strength. I made the same mistake. I bought but I got out. They want to ride this to the depths now matter how deep it goes. Does that make sense to you?
This is getting long and I have only just started to clarify the remark I made so I'll start a new one as soon as I can do a bit of research for dates and numbers etc.
In it you may get the impression I am "America bashing." Far from it. I will be bashing you politicians and the "Federal" Reserve. Nothing more than that. It will also involve my "conspiracy theories." People, even possibly you, will think I'm off with the fairies but keep in mind I have done heaps of research on the matters. Back soon. |
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By: smart.moves2000
4/08/2007
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In Russia today they tried to lay claim to the North Pole, as an example of the overall madness of a nation no longer running in stride with nature. When a nation such as Russia with an ever-declining population continues to tout the political prowess just as the Culture of Corruption in my nation, you have a growing social imbalance as currently running muck in the US.
I do not lay claim to be being all knowing but I will say this at least I believe that the dumbest being on earth understand he needs clean water and good food.
It seems there is never enough space on your message boards to complete a thought.
What I believe the global governments currently are in need of are more individual that have the larger picture in mind and not simply self gratification and greed as the reason for doing the right thing.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
4/08/2007
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brukevlay
I just read today's article by Michael Nystrom. Although I find his article very interesting and filled with loads of information. I cannot bring myself to be so overly exuberant about the demise of the global economies nor the idea that the destructive cycle is always constant. I understand the concept in macroeconomics. What I find more attractive is that while one economy finds balance and another is still ever changing and while one moves head first into the destructive cycles another is rising out of the ashes.
For example, I have been telling of the global demand for AG products and yet another reason for this demand arose. In Africa, we find is ever changing
http://www.calvin.edu/minds/vol01/issue02/hope-for -africa.php
I suppose one can never really have enough information in hopes of forming a conclusion and even then, it is only in theory.
Again, the one single thing in the universal scope we can count on is change. Just as Crude will one day pass and another form of alternative energy will come along so shall change be ever constant.
Doom and Gloom is not the point of my investment strategy rather I find hope in other industries and sectors while finding weakness in strength.
Then I formulate a plan of action and act upon my conclusion.
I can agree with much of that which economist conclude although I may not find all of their theory correct.
For example, in Ch!na currently they have many more growing problems than they have even begun to understand. Yet they believe they understand that they have disseminated as the proper conclusion. Rather I find their current direction much like that of Russia or any other emerging market where corruption and greed have taken the leadership position.
In Russia today they tried to lay claim to the North Pole, as an example of the overall madness of a nation no longer running in stride with nature. When a nation such as Russia with an ever-declining population continues to tout ... |
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By: smart.moves2000
4/08/2007
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brukevlay
Can you clarify?
The markets are ever changing and if you do not understand that, you are in for world of hurting.
Just as politics, economies, water, skies, earth and most of all your health.
Seems all too many people become fixated with a point and can never excel beyond that one simple point of view.
I studied under a PhD that always explained the importance of realizing personalities. So many individuals are unable to excel and grow beyond the age of 20 and become dwarfed by their own demise.
I hope we can both agree that change is the only constant.
Regards |
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By: crazyjimsmith
3/08/2007
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Smart we had carry over trader unwinding positions yesterday that sent the market here into a dive only to see it recover just before the close.
Today was up slightly.
FTSE and DAX are down slightly.
I reckon worst is over. |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
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Smart,
You seem to change your mind often. Don't you believe Michael Nystrom? Or do you believe it does not happen anymore? |
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By: smart.moves2000
3/08/2007
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All market corrections are in reality a good thing as markets decline you have an opportunity to add profits then after the correction we can anticipate a breakout of better than 30% of the last highes.
I welcome a Global market correction as it will add value and growth to current trends correcting Crude and other speculative markets.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - A big jump in stocks in the last half hour of trading late on Wednesday sparked speculation that a bad trade in the futures market was behind the unexpected rally, but CME Group (CME.N), the world's largest futures exchange, said trading was normal.
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The rally led to market talk that a mistake had been made on a trade, resulting in a 180 point jump in the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) and a sharp rise in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) in the last 20 minutes of trade on Wednesday.
Traders in London overnight cited talk that someone made an error entering a purchase order for a futures contract, placing a far larger order than intended.
But CME spokeswoman Mary Haffenberg said the exchange encountered no problems with its S&P 500 futures contracts, whether on its Globex electronic platform or from the trading floor.
"We had no price corrections and no trade busts," she said.
A trade bust is when a trade is canceled after the order is erroneously executed.
There was also talk that the late Wednesday rally could have been related to an error in trading options on the S&P 500. A spokeswoman for the Chicago Board Options Exchange said there were no problems in the SPX options pit on Wednesday.
Merrill Lynch analyst Jon Davi said in a note to investors that one factor for the move up could be due to an error in the SPX option pit. It was the beginning of the month which can see large asset allocation orders and dealers adjusting their hedges at the end of the day in a high volatility environment, he said.
The late rally was most likely due to traders c ... |
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By: smart.moves2000
3/08/2007
8:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Just to better understand
Thu Aug 2, 1:52 PM ET
CHICAGO (Reuters) - A big jump in stocks in the last half hour of trading late on Wednesday sparked speculation that a bad trade in the futures market was behind the unexpected rally, but CME Group (CME.N), the world's largest futures exchange, said trading was normal.
ADVERTISEMENT
The rally led to market talk that a mistake had been made on a trade, resulting in a 180 point jump in the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) and a sharp rise in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) in the last 20 minutes of trade on Wednesday.
Traders in London overnight cited talk that someone made an error entering a purchase order for a futures contract, placing a far larger order than intended.
But CME spokeswoman Mary Haffenberg said the exchange encountered no problems with its S&P 500 futures contracts, whether on its Globex electronic platform or from the trading floor.
"We had no price corrections and no trade busts," she said.
A trade bust is when a trade is canceled after the order is erroneously executed.
There was also talk that the late Wednesday rally could have been related to an error in trading options on the S&P 500. A spokeswoman for the Chicago Board Options Exchange said there were no problems in the SPX options pit on Wednesday.
Merrill Lynch analyst Jon Davi said in a note to investors that one factor for the move up could be due to an error in the SPX option pit. It was the beginning of the month which can see large asset allocation orders and dealers adjusting their hedges at the end of the day in a high volatility environment, he said.
The late rally was most likely due to traders covering positions that bet the market would go lower, he added.
"We believe most dealers are short options and have to buy more futures as the futures move up or sell more as we move down," Davi said.
Jack Bouroudjian, a principal with Brewer Investment Group, doubted a trading ... |
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By: crazyjimsmith
3/08/2007
7:57 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| ps BESST OFFF LUCKKK! |
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By: crazyjimsmith
3/08/2007
7:56 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Risk I have an opportunity for you
Reminiscences of a stock operator!
Look for it on amazon.com
You might learn something!!!!!!!!!! |
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By: riskpirate
3/08/2007
6:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| CRAZY, HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR YOU.....WHAT I DIDNT LEARN AT SCHOOL BUT WISH I HAD. FREE DVD FROM UNIVERSAL WEALTH CREATION PTY LTD.PHONE 1800 066 090.OR P.O.BOX 410, BUNBERRY, W.A. 6231. BEST OF LUCK. |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
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'Why all the M-3? Undoubtedly because the PPT wanted to manipulate markets at this time for reasons that are secret to everyone but them. We are left to speculate as to those reasons. Is the economy closer to the brink than anyone realizes? Or, is it politically expedient to goose markets? Do the corporatist elitists want the big payback for backing the powers that be, and insist upon a rising market into year end? Does Greenspan have an all-encompassing, overriding desire to ensure his legacy by seeing the Dow Industrials at an all-time high when he retires in January? We aren't privy to the reasons because the Master Planners do not believe in the forthright flow of information. They believe that bad news cannot be handled by the flock, that confidence must be boosted at all costs, even if it entails manipulating the markets. Don't let the dead be honored, instead sneaking them into Dover at night. Don't let the real jobless figures be released, goose them with a phony birth/death adjustment, and so on. Now we can kiss goodbye the most important Fed statistic computed. Do you see what is happening folks? The Unpatriotic Act steals your civil liberties. Three young girls from Kansas cannot board an Amtrak train to New York unless they have a government issued photo ID. Not some futuristic sci-fi plot. Now. It is called Corporatist Fascism. Next could be freedom of speech. Then martial law. A computer chip under your skin. Eventually, your right to vote. Then it is all over, game set and match."
Similar thing from someone else.
Again, old news but it still goes on with the DOW
The corruption in the US does not only include manipulation of markets but what is going to happen to our market if the manipulators of the Dow eventually fail in there dishonest deeds? |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
1:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Smart,
When you say "tomorrows trading" Do you mean the day after today or days to come in the future? |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
1:19 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/stocks-6.html
That relates to old news on the Dow but it still goes on today.
I rest my case. |
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By: smart.moves2000
3/08/2007
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brukevlay
Now, you have simply stop the speculation it does not help one bit.
I have something you should read and be very vigilant as tomorrows trading will send a shockwave through the markets. Don't for one minute think that because your day has ended you are in the clear.
Major markets Head Fake lurks!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070802/bs_nm/markets_ tradespeculation_dc_1
Regards |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
11:34 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"is the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) hard at work in the
US? For the second day in a row, Wall Street rallied over 100 points in the last hour of trading. You can interpret this in one of two ways.
First, bulls and bears are earnestly engaged in combat for control of the market. Bears are winning the field for most of the day, with the Bulls rallying late.
OR
The other, more sinister theory is that there exists in the financial market a buyer of last resort who comes in to goose the indexes at critical times, when investor confidence is especially fragile."
Again not my words but if you read through the lines he claims as I do, the "Federal" Reserve is manipulating the markets.
Federal is in inverted comas because it is privately owned. |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
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Manila,
"The Australian markets recovered today on the strong lead from US. However, while bond yields, equities and dollar closed in black today, the recovery was not convincing. Both ASX and the yield failed to hang on to the gains that they had at the open suggesting that the bearish momentum will be very difficult to beat and will require a major reversal of investor sentiment for stabilization and further gains to ensue."
Not my words. But I agree.
My words are: Don't listen to what people tell you. Listen ONLY to what the market is telling you. |
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By: brukevlay
3/08/2007
10:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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What happened to WTE....no volume to speak of and going down even after the announcement...CRAZY?
I'll post something for you to read as soon as I find it. |
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By: smart.moves2000
3/08/2007
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Now, AG Futures continue to climb higher on every intraday.
Seems crude speculator understand the risk/reward has been declining fast.
Precious Metal have lost their luster slowing as the year end nears.
Currencies most volatile of all, although all equities are not out of the downward trend radar. The biggest worry will continue to be liquidity and write downs be very cautious.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
2/08/2007
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Wow! as I continue to calculate the global economies it may surprise most to know that major global financials are unable to sell a large amount of their contracts. If this is correct then I can expect huge write downs and with this we can further estimate greater loss within the next two to three months.
Now, that the US unemployment numbers are out we find that much to do about nothing. So we find that the number are unchanged and that has little meaning or impact on the global scope.
I expect other financials holding increased number of write downs the real concern will be when GS, BAC realize huge global write downs as emerging markets continue to decline. This down turn has gone global and the calculations show a global recession looms.
Regards |
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