By: smart.moves2000
12/08/2007
3:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Nope no depression in sight just a lot of pain mostly in the emerging markets, speculators and manipulators as now the watch dogs are on the scent of the crooks.
Have you ever read the Wizard of OZ?
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By: smart.moves2000
12/08/2007
3:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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crazyjimsmith
I read earlier how some poster did not believe that the carry trade triggered the credit squeeze and that my story was simply that well.
http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB1170802 03995200146-SOoYMPB8cLYlsQ6mlPNKUo5g930_20080207.h tml?mod=9_0002_b_online_exclusives_weekday_r1
I believe that if any one doubts that for one second they should read this past Barron article. As the all bet were short the Yen and the USD last the week before last the EURO and GBP began declining against the USD and the YEN what happen next I believe many that have read my post was the carry trade began to unwind and many were over extended as margin calls began to come out. The final nail was Barclays borrowed Billions from Ch!na at whic point the Ch!nese cash in Billions. Forcing manipulation in the market place and setting up the markets for a selloff and the great promise to collect taxes.
What was next to come was a call that the Ja P anese were about to govern for at which point he institutions, banks, hedge funds and private equity had already been lossing ever larger blocks add the fees and interest a these speculators and I am most positive there were an extremely high number of naked shorts. Add to that the sub prime speculation by these banks prior to the bubble burst taking along with them some of the prime contracts.
As for Oil not to worry Oil will decline and a return to controlled speculation and manipulation now that the brakes have been put on these institutions, banks, hedge funds and private equity. Naked shorts were about to get called and the cover up blaming everything on sub prime I find it extremely interesting that less than 1% of all mortgage contracts were sub prime and no doc contracts.
What we will have in the next few week will be corrections throughout the markets on most all overbought and over speculated stocks. My recommendation is sit tight consider the Australian pime rates and most here can make a nice profit. |
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By: perceptions_now
12/08/2007
11:26 am Yahoo! Profile:
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smart.moves2000,
Where would we be?
Oil prices heading lower!
Banks going bankrupt!
Demand says Oil must head North, a lower price, says lower demand, where does that lead?
Wholesale Bank banruptcy, yes, we have had that before, it was called The Great Depression!
Lets hope that it's not what it seems? |
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By: crazyjimsmith
12/08/2007
11:04 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Smart,
Hedge funds jumped into oil now they are unwinding to try and cover losses elsewhere. |
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By: smart.moves2000
12/08/2007
10:31 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Does any here remember when Reagan and Daddy Bush ran the Savings and Loans into the ground. Seems the apple does not fall far from the tree.
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
9:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The banks are currently over exposed to derivatives and many banks will markup serious loss because of this and no amount of liquidity will make their bad choices good bets.
Only a handful of financials are healthy for example Wells Fargo other smaller banks will decry foul but the overall lack of risk management has been the real cause of our current situation beginning with sub prime and prime mortgages and now derivatives markets. These guys never learn well it only the customers money.
I expect many banks will file bankruptcy after all is said and done, so it is my recommendation if you choose financials or banks choose the one with little to no exposure to sub prime and derivatives.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
9:11 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Crude looks to break through to 60's levels as the week comes to a close.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
9:07 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Many investor have an opportunity not often offered up by the institutions and many will become multi millionaire over the next few months by timing and choosing the right quality value growth stocks.
Again don't be a doubting Thomas watch these markets turn, remember try to stay away from tech and crude in general.
Precious metals can be valued but pick and choose wisely.
Hold your current positions and add then weed through your portfolios and when these markets turn sell the weaker hands.
Do not look for currencies to impress.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
8:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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What ever you do if you choose Tech Chip stock before you buy make sure they have extreme cunsumer demand as many look great on paper but only to find they were over speculated before the selloff.
My recommendation when buying quality in Tech is buy the larger multi internationals IBM etc...
But for the most part do not be in such a hurry to rush to Tech even MSFT has been reducing its margins with price cutting schemes, this is just one of the things to look for as MSFT sell Vista for better than 400USD in the US and less than 66USD in Ch!na.
This move may increase market exposure but a company like MSFT need not look for market exposure.
Quality Value and Growth does not matter larger cap mid cap or small cap
Don't be in a rush you have all weekend to do some research and find what fills your holes in your portfolios. Great opportunity to tune up that portfolio.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
8:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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greggroach2003
I believe this is much to do about nothing as the panic sellers mount their continued loss. It seems so many players don't understand how this works it is not sell low buy high. The right thing to do if you believe you have quality, value and growth and were unable to get out on the top or at least near the top, my recommendation is hold and buy but what ever you do, you must not sell. The pivot will come and you loss will be a gain of I estimate 20% to 30%.
Here is where we look for the most reduced quality buys and remain vigilant buying all we can at their bottoms. With all this global liquidity I Believe it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before the cash reaches the King.
For example if you liked xyz before do your due diligence and find out if the stock was a speculative play or a quality growth valued stock as speculative plays may not bounce where quality will always bounce as the global wealth will accumulate and extremely fast leaving little room for the small retailer to capture gains.
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
8:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Here is what to look for strength value and growth coupled with low industry and sector PE.
Easy money awaits those brave enough to step up.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
8:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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This intraday I find that a flight to quality is a foot finding all equities oversold and waiting for a bottom at which point never will there be a better opportunity for many years to aquire growth and value at discounted pricing.
International currencies remain the same, crude and preciuos metals likewise. Finding a flight to quality, remember the object of this game is and I hate to sound Cliché but I must repeat "Buy Low Sell High."
Regards |
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By: greggroach2003
10/08/2007
8:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| G'day Smart - Couldn't agree more. I think any buying in this market is bad timing really. I don't believe its that hard to see these sort of days are coming thick and fast - and there will be more to come before its over. I'd rather buy tickets on slow racehorses ! Hey..I already do !!! |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
8:12 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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greggroach2003
Good company simply a case of bad timing.
When the markets finish on this correction this most certainly will be a fast climber.
Regards |
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By: greggroach2003
10/08/2007
3:52 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| You should have told Chris that yesterday before he got them at $18.75...thats what he said to his money - bye bye bye ! |
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By: legsio
10/08/2007
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| ZFX is an absolute bargain at the moment at 17.32..buy buy buy |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
10:24 am Yahoo! Profile:
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brukevlay
Wow, I would not know about the sex porn industry as I rather enjoy the real thing vs. moving pictures (hahaha)
But, here is my take and I have spent many hours searching for the answers. What I have found is that Bankers have been playing the derivatives markets and hence limited liquidity rather than putting the funds on the retail markets tightening credit.
There is no way I could believe otherwise, look at the option markets highest levels in history as liquidity tightens. Then Bernanke leaves the Fed rates as is if inflation were so feared would you not believe the most practical move would be what your own central bank has done raising rates.
If the Fed does what the EU has done adding more liquidity to the markets we will only increase the levels of risk. At which point I would ask where is the risk management is nobody at the helm of this nations financial engines.
I already know that this administration of fools folly has created the mess now looks as though the Fed has lost its way and I can post banking regulation requiring risk management and not increased risk as these banks have currently been doing.
These fellows must really think that America is wall to wall fools and that somebody would not see the mess and schemes they are currently involved in.
The EU raised rates to control the Bloated EURO and in turn placed the brakes on the GBP likewise. We have spoken about this for months now and although I do not believe adding currency to the market was the solution rather than controling demand. Now, they have excess and you know what happens when one fattens to goose in excess.
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
10:19 am Yahoo! Profile:
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brukevlay
Wow, I would not know about the sex porn industry as I rather enjoy the real thing vs. moving pictures (hahaha)
But, here is my take and I have spent many hours searching for the answers. What I have found is that Bankers have been playing the derivatives markets and hence limited liquidity rather than putting the funds on the retail markets.
There is no way I could believe otherwise, look at the option markets highest levels in history as liquidity tightens. Then Bernanke leaves the Fed rates as is if inflation were so feared would you not believe the most practical move would be what your own central bank has done raising rates.
If the Fed does what the EU has done adding more liquidity to the markets we will only increase the levels of risk. At which point I would ask where is the risk management is nobody at the helm of this nations financial engines.
I already know that this administration of fools folly has created the mess now looks as though the Fed has lost its way and I can post banking regulation requiring risk management and not increased risk as these banks have currently been doing.
These fellows must really think that America is wall to wall fools and that somebody would not see the mess and schemes they are currently involved in.
The EU raised rates to control the Bloated EURO and in turn placed the brakes on the GBP likewise. We have spoken about this for months now and although I do not believe adding currency to the market was the solution rather than controling demand. Now, they have excess and you know what happens when one fattens to goose in excess.
Regards |
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By: brukevlay
10/08/2007
7:50 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Smart,
Dow down 387 points
Nasdaq down 56 points
PTT up 7 3/4% It is a stock traded in US which is in the sex industry.
Are you Yanks saying just have sex and forger about it? |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
7:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Tomorrow everybody should watch out for the dirty float currencies.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
10/08/2007
6:12 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Incredible intraday markets getting crushed by EU any doubts that the EU is not a friend of the global markets keep buying up them EURO and see what that does to you market capital wealth.
Great time to have remained in Australia bonds what looks like the global currencies have all corrected as the USD continues the Upward bounce and now who can doubt the the EU IMF BIS and Global Central Banks as markets get crushed. All this from those that charge interest and fees for trading in their financials.
Great buying opportunity this intraday buying as most stocks move into Two EU banks shut down as losses increased. Warned this was coming and now that it has come home we can very well watch as crude demand and all precious metals decline.
What a day to be a short AG up but weak a market withour buyers. US administrationn and Fed responsible never forgetting about the Treasury.
How many are glad the sat this one out simply outrageous this day.
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
9/08/2007
11:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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crazyjimsmith
Looks like the best play short and very possibly Long term play I have seen you post in the past few weeks. Looks to have nice cash flow and impressive growth and value.
This can easily move to .89 and a retest of 1.00AUD within weeks if not sooner.
Longer term I see impressive growth and value looks to have impressive management as well.
Good pick!
Regards |
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By: crazyjimsmith
9/08/2007
9:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Smart have a look at Quickstep (QHL.AX) |
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By: smart.moves2000
9/08/2007
9:24 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Buying opportunities rise as volatility returns to EU and UK with BNP can not have made the current reports any worse for the EU markets as product, manufacturing, industrials, retail and tourism have all seen declines. A flight to quality it seems we will see movement toward value and growth. When one considers the rewards in AUD interest rates and the overall strength in this very pivotal price point of US equities currently trading at below 14X earnings second market will be PACRIM markets.
I forecast volatility and declines in the EURO, GBP and crude and a retracement although not significant in precious metals expect copper and silver to move higher.
With several equities standout in Australia Royal Dutch Shell and Nexus both are finding quality in western Australia while Australian financial are price to buy.
US we find strength across much of the equities boards as the recent selloffs have made for many impressive opportunities for gains. Pick most any industry and you may find a great opportunity. Whereas retail has been beat back and PPS values are set to buy with better than 30% growth expectations in the next 3 to 6 mos. Continued attractiveness in AG as global prices continues to send most all sectors higher. Remember this with the recent selloff US equities are currently priced to buy as the holiday season nears and consider they are trading at near 14X earnings impressive short and long term growth.
Stay away from EU equities as the sub prime inflation and the bloated EURO continue to slow growth, no emerging markets unless within the PACRIM
Regards |
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By: smart.moves2000
9/08/2007
3:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Looking for yet another indicator this is how it is done.
Regards |
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