By: rodneysaviour2
28/10/2009
3:27 pm |
Message deleted. |
|
By: ang101000
28/10/2009
2:57 pm Yahoo! Profile:
ang101000 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Lasty,
there is no panic. Just like you, I am waiting for the other 20% fall (adjusted for inflation) than we will all buy property. Simple really: the longer we wait the cheaper it gets (: |
|
By: newton.cowley@y7mail.com
28/10/2009
2:55 pm Yahoo! Profile:
newton.cowley@y7mail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Try this one for a property spruiker reply! The sky is falling the sky is falling! I don't think so! It is all about undersupply!
Aussie house prices aren’t overvalued: IMF
Posted on Tuesday, October 27 2009 at 6:19 PM
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reversed its previous position, saying there's no significant overvaluation of Australian house prices.
"In the case of Australia, if the impact of long-term migration on housing demand is taken into account, the results do not produce evidence of a significant overvaluation of house prices," the body's October 2009 World Economic Outlook Report notes.
The October 2009 edition of the RP Data-Rismark Monthly report notes Rismark and Westpac have previously criticised IMF analyses of Australia's housing market for excluding supply-side factors.
The report says the supply side is "obviously a critical determinant of prices over time".
The IMF's World Economic Outlook Report also suggests Australia's housing market correction is almost over.
"If past is prologue, these estimates suggest that the Netherlands and Finland are likely to see further house price declines, whereas the corrections in Australia and the United States are close to complete," it says. |
|
By: lasty49
28/10/2009
2:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
As mentioned Sydney was 100.2 as at June 09 (in-fact less than Dec 2003), and adjusted for inflation that would be -16% (refer to ABS CPI stats). So Sydney's almost halfway there to the 40% decline posited by the title of this forum. Any comments property spruikers?"
Oh in the case then housing has become more affordable.. Whats all the panic about then ;-) |
|
By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
1:53 pm Yahoo! Profile:
cxxxx@rocketmail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Yes Jay, good points and well made. I'm glad there's discussion about something other than definitions of value and price etc (that's what undergrad studies are for). I just think property's great when it's moving up, and over the very long-run that's the case. But that was then and this is now. And new borrowers are sill entering into doing interest-only loans! Now, maybe you can advise total cost (entry, exit, fees, charges, maintenance, upgrades, adjustment for inflation at, say, 3.5%) over 30 years given a 90% loan. |
|
By: ang101000
28/10/2009
1:47 pm Yahoo! Profile:
ang101000 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
cxxx,
I have rarely have seen such a confused argument as you are putting forward.
Could you please explain it in a simple way so the slow minded people like me can understand your point. |
|
By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
1:09 pm Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Thanks got it, the only problem I can see with these figures is it is calculated as a weighted average, to me as an investor this means nothing.
But saying that you are correct about entry and exit costs, erosion due to inflation, costs of periodic maintenance and upgrades.
The thing with property is you avoid selling at all costs, maintenance & upgrades are claimable on tax or removed from CGT when sold (upgrades add to the sale price) not sure what you mean by erosion due to inflation. Property usually goes up by inflation as a minimum due to the majority being bought as homes not investment properties. |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
1:02 pm Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| I don't recall Keen saying anything about 40% drop adjusted for inflation. lol |
|
By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
12:58 pm Yahoo! Profile:
cxxxx@rocketmail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| David -as mentioned Sydney was 100.2 as at June 09 (in-fact less than Dec 2003), and adjusted for inflation that would be -16% (refer to ABS CPI stats). So Sydney's almost halfway there to the 40% decline posited by the title of this forum. Any comments property spruikers? |
|
By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
12:53 pm Yahoo! Profile:
cxxxx@rocketmail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
ABS Home > Statistics > By Catalogue Number
then click link for 6416.0
See, that's the thing about all the property spruikers out there - they don't tell you about all the entry and exit costs, erosion due to inflation, costs of periodic maintenance and upgrades. It's all well and good to talk about the past ten years and even more recently about investing in Darwin and what not. But what capacity will the average person pay for the average dwelling in future? That's what I mean - wages would need to outpace inflation etc, or people duped into trying to sustain an asset rich poverty trap. |
|
By: davidjtroy
28/10/2009
12:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
davidjtroy Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Thanks for the link.
I had a quick look through and can't see where you get a 15% decrese from.
The index they use has 2003 figures at 100 and the current figures are 100+, doesn't that mean prices increased? |
|
By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
12:48 pm Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Any thought on my figures below on land prices & building prices?
When property does fall 50% which will suffer the price of the land or the cost of building the house? |
|
By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
12:45 pm Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| bugger the link didn't work, would be a good doc to see |
|
By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
12:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
cxxxx@rocketmail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPag e/6416.0Jun%202009?OpenDocument |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
12:36 pm Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| cxxx, can you link to those figures as most of the reports I have heard showed very little change aside from some small increases of late. |
|
By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
12:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
cxxxx@rocketmail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| in fact it's already happening - accroding to the abs index of house prices (pure price change), sydney is where is was in late 2003 (about -15% in real terms). In aggregate, all 8 cities are about the same as early 2008 (about -5% in real terms). If this index remains about the same (assuming a random walk) we would decline a further 40% in a high inflation environment in about 5 years (in a moderate inflation environment 10 years). And that doesn't include the cost of maintaining exiting dwellings plus other costs (taxes etc). |
|
By: ang101000
28/10/2009
12:09 pm Yahoo! Profile:
ang101000 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi Guy,
Yes, I tend to evaluate all my financial investment based on; 'price you pay (for) value you get' principle, be that investment in shares or 'real' property. If you like, you can substitute words by using financial expression such as discounted cash flow, opportunity costs etc, but that does not change my way of thinking. |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
12:09 pm Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Correct Menta, price is where supply meets demand so ability to complete the transaction is a requirement. But if you think "able" in this context relates to affordability then you are wrong. Ability to complete the purchase of a home is merely obtaining finance. Being able to fulfil your future obligations, under that finance agreement, is affordability. |
|
By: mentawaisurf
28/10/2009
12:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Price is what someone is willing and 'able' to pay for it. If they can't get the money or can't service the debt then they can't buy/hold onto it. That's the point Professor Hudson is making here but few seem to get it (just like those who didn't listen to him during 2006 in the US). |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
11:50 am Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Jay, we are talking finance are we not? Try a financial dictionary. ;) |
|
By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
11:49 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| sorry |
|
By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
11:48 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
The cambridge english dictionary definition for value
'the amount of money which can be received for something' |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
11:46 am Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
"If I asked you the value of your home, then asked you what price you would get if you sold it, would there be much difference?"
This is as simply as I can put it.
Value = how valuable it is to you. ie what benefit you gain from it.
Price is what someone is willing to pay for it. |
|
By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
11:43 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Just out of interest how much do you think you could build a house for in a city suburb not including the land value? My guess is around $150,000, you would do well to buy the land for under $200,000 so all up at least $350,000.
Surprise you have just arrived at the price of an already built house for a FHB. |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
11:42 am Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Jay, layman usage as opposed to actual definition. |
|
