By: kbunkerm
6/02/2009
10:07 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Unfortunately lasty I KNOW family members in top positions at 3 banks and THEY KNOWN that THERE IS NO MONEY. They are going along hoping that Australia will somehow avoid this before tanking like the rest. Unfortunately, this will is NOT the case. Things will become clearer this year and in 2010. |
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By: lasty49
6/02/2009
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Jades,
I spoke to someone "in the know" and our banks are a wash with funds.They are just choosey who they lend to and are dictating the terms.
They are squeezing their smaller competitors and watch them get taken.
We will be back to the four pillars and no competition.
Is Australia really that bad or is Rudd trying to make it into a crisis by unnerving people and giving handouts?
Its reckless spending at its best as the last stimulus package was wasted.
I prefer to see $42 billion go toward those who have lost their jobs.
For 750,000 unemployed thats $56,000 each.
Drip feed them dollars or something but those with jobs are actually feeling the benefit of low mortgage rates, cheaper fuel and price reductions. |
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By: malcolm_park2003
6/02/2009
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Historical rents were 5 % of a flat's value until 5 years ago in Sydney. Now after the recent higher increases they are still less than 4%. Rents cant go up fast as income isnt (and as people, like some i know, move to other suburbs, or even back to parents). So prices still have to drop 20 % to be back to normal. Or more likely not increase for years (until inflation does the drop instead).
The house bubble was helped by easy money loans on 5 % deposit, now its 20% deposit and not many people have got that sitting there. Bubble over guys, but probably 20 % off. |
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By: jadeshangrila
6/02/2009
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| Australian interest rates are going to go to near zero very soon. In Uk it is already 1%. The reason is that we cannot let median house prices deflate by more than 10%, otherwise our banks will end up like UK banks, going broke and nationalized. Remember banks work on fractional reserve banking of about 9-10% and we have a large amount of loans backed by real estate. If we have real estate falling by 40% median price all Australian banks will be technically bankrupted and our government backing them with deposit guarantee of up to 1 million will also be in dire trouble. Everyone will be retrenching workers including the government if everyone goes broke. That's why we cannot let this happen and the government will do it's best to prevent it happening, even if it means zero interest rates or supplying property trusts with credit. |
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By: bmanly3
6/02/2009
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I have bought and sold several properties in my life time and I have never seen falls of 40%. In fact right now I have been going to open for inspections (here in Sydney) and I can tell you there are more buyers out there than there are units available to buy. I don't know about the rest of Australia but in my area (beach side Sydney) the property market is alive and well.
It all depends on the suburb and area. Every unit that is in the 250K to 350K price bracket is sold within 2 weeks right now. When new stock comes on the market the first open for inspection is swamped by dozens of buyers, most buyers are investors. Not all areas will be affected by the recession that will hit us. Real estate does give you that steady rental income and this is what retirees are looking for. |
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By: ringsseven
6/02/2009
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Over the past few months we have all been told:
US house prices were inflated
European and UK house prices were inflated
Commodity prices were inflated
Resource prices were inflated
Oil prices were inflated
US stock market was inflated
European stock market was inflated
Australian stock market was inflated
Wages and bonuses were inflated
Chinese forcast for growth was inflated
Australian forcast for growth was inflated
And yet, and yet, there are some who still say, "Australian house prices inflated? No way, cant be! Impossible!!"
Not much logic there to me. |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
5/02/2009
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Any bold, across the board statement like "houses will drop 40%" can be made to seem imminent. Just one house drops this much, and listen for the "I told you so".
The statistics are dogs to be whipped wherever you want them, but median means median. To base anything on this is meaningless. When sales are predominantly in the low end, median prices drop. Some of these low enders are selling in Brisbane for higher prices than ever in history, but this is an across the board price drop according to newspapers. They sell papers by selling misery, people. DO NOT BELIEVE them.
Housing is segmented. By housing types and by location. Million dollar houses probably will drop - but demand is very strong for good ordinary houses to start a life. Middle class above $600,000 will drop a bit but low end hardly any. There are 95% EMPLOYED and interest rates are the lowest ever so it would be a pretty sad case who couldn't find some income. Even the dole will be enough soon to make mortgage payments on a cheapy, plus letting a room.
40% is a very sad dream that can be done without thankyou very much.
Al |
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By: helmutbold
5/02/2009
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| I agree that the property market may still have some downward movement but the 40% figure is very unlikely. Some interesting figures about our last recession is that prior to heading into recession our unemployment rate was around 6.5% to 7% and rose to around 13 to 14%. They are predicting we will rise to 7% unemployment. Surley we need to have the press put this in perspective rather than trying to scare the life out of us all. Additionally many companies were running on high debt levels and our big banks were sailing close to the wind back then. Companies have relatively low debts levels in comparison and our interest rates are low now compared to 17% back then. I find it hard to fathom that this downturn will be as bad as the 1990 recession. |
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By: helmutbold
5/02/2009
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I think we all need to take a balanced view of what the press reports. Lets face it they only like to report bad news.
I think it is highly unlikely house will fall 40% in Australia. Buying a first home is a lifestyle decision and people should buy a home when they can afford it. Waiting can mean they may never afford it if they rise. When weighing up the cost of housing is it likely that building materials will drop in price? Will builders drop their wages by 20% to 40% - I doubt it very much and even if land values fall 40% the cost of housing probably won't unless we have severe deflation. |
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By: robert_ferenczi
5/02/2009
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| It is quite unbelievable that many press reports are still urging first home buyers into the housing market right now. Maybe OK if you offer 40% less than the market prices otherwise you are still buying at a very high prices and will be in a terrible situation when the prices drop substantially. It is a shame the Australian Public are not given a balanced view of the housing situation. |
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By: mentawaisurf
5/02/2009
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An independent housing report released today states that even just a 10% fall in our housing market will result in over 300,000 Australians falling into negative equity.
That is when mortgage defaults will really jump and the downward spiral of house prices will escalate.
Add to that an unemployment rate that is likely to double within years (3.5% in 2007 with latest forecasts of a jump to at least 7% by 2010) and the Keen prediction is looking ever more likely, no matter how you wish to spin it. |
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By: audie12sg
5/02/2009
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| this is a joke when the intrest start going up can you still pay the loan .how sure you will have a job in the next one year .the banks will suffer if people cant pay also no way to recover. should just sit on the side hold on to cash. |
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By: s_step000
5/02/2009
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"But first the myth that our Financial institutions are solid rock or sound will be proven false once they collapse when unemployment takes precedence. There is NO WAY out. Their collapse is imminent"
The word collapse has been use loosely until it becomes so meaningless.
Pls define your definiton of collapse. Are you referring to nationalization experienced by UK or totally bankrupt like Iceland? The former only destroy shareholder value and result in partial layoff (business still running) while the latter destroy the shareholder, creditor, and customers, and full layoff (business stop running). |
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By: forrestwicks
5/02/2009
1:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| hey lastyly are you into rocket science??? |
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By: lasty49
5/02/2009
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Menta,
Companies like Westfield and Lend Lease has large international exposure.
Westfield for example has 60pct of its revenues from overseas.
Massive declines in both UK and US retail sectors would have a dramatic impact on their books. |
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By: mentawaisurf
5/02/2009
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As per my previous post, you can see that we are now firmly on the same path as the US, UK and most of our fellow OECD members in this global event;
Westfield down almost 14% yesterday on a $2.9 billion institutional capital raising at only $10.50 per share.
Lend Lease has just announced another rights issue to raise further badly needed capital to pay down some of their heavy debt burden.
Stockland has downgraded profit forecasts and joins the ever growing number of property groups cutting staff and planning to raise capital.
Raptis Group just went into liquidation a few days ago.
Even the Sunland Group is now not so sunny with big falls in profit and an over exposure to the shaky Dubai maket (another huge bubble due to burst).
This is the latest from our largest real estate groups and foreshadows the coming trend for our residential and commercial property markets to follow.
This follows the exact trend as the US experienced with their REITs, LPTs and property developers in early-mid 2007 just prior to their housing market collapse (which continues to fall with no bottom in sight).
Hang in there potential home buyers - affordable housing is just a few short years away.... |
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By: lasty49
5/02/2009
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| Yeah its really bad in the UK.Infact I think they are in a worse condition than the US. |
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By: robert_ferenczi
5/02/2009
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In the UK house prices are predicted to fall by 40% and stay at those levels till 2013.
See http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/A LeqM5hs_Lfle9gFKRuV0ECdG0YeLhZh7g |
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By: sandymcquade
4/02/2009
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| In your dreams |
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By: titfortat50
4/02/2009
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Lasty, i cant go either but I will try to watch the Today Tonight Program on the same.
Today tonight is doing a piece on whether we might face a Depression, and if so what it might be like. To be aired tomorrow.
They have interviewed steve for his analysis, and Eric Aarons who lived through the Great Depression and at 90 is still a dynamic sculptor and author. They will also be interviewing people who has lost their job recently. |
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By: lasty49
4/02/2009
3:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Titfor,
Thanks for the invite but have something on tonight which I cant get out of.
Good luck. |
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By: titfortat50
4/02/2009
3:32 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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ARE WE HEADING FOR A DEPRESSION?
When will the bottom hit? Are we in store for 40% drops in property or has the recovery already begun?
It is almost impossible to escape the negativity surrounding the global economic crisis. While many experts predict the worst economic crisis of our time others point to positive indicators such as population growth, supply shortage and differences to the US and foreign markets. Is the governments stimulus measures poised to combat what appears to be an inevitable period of economic turmoil or are we indeed entering into a depression where property prices may drop as far as 40%? Three of Australias leading thought leaders in property will help shed some light on the subject, in what is promised to be an engaging and interactive evening not to be missed!!
Speakers: DR STEVE KEEN, UWS Associate Professor School of Economics and Finance (As seen on 60 minutes)
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER Adviser Edge Head of Property and Real Estate Commentator for Sevens Sunrise
NICK COMMISSO Northpac Constructions Property Developer 20+ years industry experience
Time: Wednesday, 4 February 2009, 6:45-8pm
Venue: Bridge Bar - Level 10, 2 East Circular Quay / 3 Macquarie St, Sydney (access lift near Dendy)
Lasty this is your once in a lifetime chance to get physical with Dr Keen. Screw the talk you guys can get started with REVERSE MONOPLOY. I think you would love that given the frustration, desperation, anger you have expressed. Maybe, love will prevail over all this? |
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By: lasty49
4/02/2009
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Jades,
China will look internally for domestic consumption rather than exports.
Exports from the US in machinery etc will increase as infrastructure projects unfold.
The US has upset China with protectionsim threats and currency manipulation.
The US banks are still tight on credit.
The US govt is still in a squabble over the bailout.
There is a bit more hurt still to come from the US unfortunately.Its not an easy fix over there.Many things need to be addressed.
China said it may use some of its US dollar reserves to prop up domestic consumption.
Wen said he wants 8% growth for 2009 so expects some prime pumping.
I wonder if they just received the order for Kevin Rudd's insulation Batts yet?
If thats Kevins attemption at Infrastructure, god help us. |
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By: kbunkerm
4/02/2009
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| yeah but there is a big difference between tard and saying 20% seems fine/realistic with your disclaimer. That is why i summed up as PLAUSIBLE. |
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By: lasty49
4/02/2009
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Kbunkerm,
"4 months have passed and you say that rorys prediction of 20% is plausible. Why dont we wait for the rest of this year and call it a victory/defeat at the end of 2010?"
Is this what you mean Kbunkerm?
neutral Person
"lasty seems to hate keen for his prediction but he has remained silent over rory. So lasty do you agree with rory about his stance on a 20% drop in property values?."
lasty49
Yes
20% seems fine/realistic after all we had that in back in 2003-2005 but im not saying that will happen this time around in 2009."
No concession there. |
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