By: huntleydave
30/10/2009
4:36 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Come to Perth and experience the OECD's most unaffordable housing. While you're here why not visit the rest of the only country to have its ENTIRE housing stock (IE: EVERY suburb in EVERY STATE) listed under the OECD's LEAST AFFORDABLE housing category. (there are four categories, the whole of Oz has, i think, 1 suburb outside of the worst category, western sydney somewhere).
Houses: where the bloody hell are they? |
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By: huntleydave
30/10/2009
4:27 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Australia & Australians are sure on a winner.."
with an average price of AU$480,000 and an average wage of $55,000 i fail to see any 'wins' for Australians looking to have a stake in this society. OK, you can still buy an ex Homeswest dog box for a paltry $300,000 but if that's called a 'win' we have lost the plot somewhere.
i work 12 hour days 9 days a fortnight in the mining industry and i can't afford (after paying maximum HECS and single mans tax mind you) a basic home in the worst Perth suburb (worst to me = high crime). that is not right IMO. |
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By: jaymarcel
30/10/2009
11:00 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Not to Menta or Steve or rodney & a few others on here with alternative views. |
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By: ang101000
30/10/2009
8:22 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Jay,
I wrote at the time; 'the longer you wait the cheaper it gets'.
Of course that is a joke! |
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By: jaymarcel
30/10/2009
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Hi Ang, I did nearly reply to your 20% fall comment on property until your next entry about it being a joke, it's getting hard on here now to read into peoples entries.
I assume you all have read recently about the property prices rising, for some reason there are a couple of people left on these forums that are not will to accept the facts, I am not saying we are fully in recovery mode but there is plenty of opportunity out there for making money.
Australia & Australians are sure on a winner whilst the giants of the world struggle to regain where they left off before the crisis. |
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By: rodneysaviour2
29/10/2009
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The larger this property bubble grows the louder and more destructive shall be the bursting of it.
And the bubble is sure to burst soon!
Lets face it. The economic conditions here are simply not god enough to continue to support the property values which grew as a result of an economy which significantly shrank during the early part of this year.
Nothing has happened during the last six months to convince me that we should expect anything other than worse economic conditions in the months, nay years to come than we have been fortunate enough to benefit from during the "Golden Years".
I urge everyone to be cautious.
Invest your money wisely. Do not throw away your financial security. |
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By: mentawaisurf
29/10/2009
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How low the share market can go?
Ang, although we may see a bounce off support for the ASX200 at 4600, TA and sentiment indicators show a tumble below the March low (3120) is looking likely. Given the bear market rally lasted 30 weeks it may take up to 15 weeks (late Jan/early Feb). But then it could happen much quicker too. |
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By: lasty49
29/10/2009
9:40 am Yahoo! Profile:
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ang,
In a correctional phase, of say this uptrend, its dangerous to pick levels of where the retracement will fall exactly to.
There will be plenty of opportunities to buy back in ( thats if you sold the other day) once the correctional phase settles.
More importantly what needs to be determine is that the trend is still intact.
Sit on you hands for the timebeing is what I'll be doing. |
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By: ang101000
29/10/2009
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How low the share market can go?
4500 is low enough. |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
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Predict house prices to drop 40-50%?
'If you want to see the ideal of the World Bank and the IMF, look at the Russian, Latvian and Estonian economies. They have shrunk as if there were a war on. And in a sense it is a war - a class war and simultaneously a war of American high finance against the rest of world. As in military wars, its devastating consequences threaten to include shortening life expectancy, lower health standards and depopulation, poverty and de-industrialization, rising debt arrears and defaults. You're going to have many of the post-Soviet countries going the way of Iceland very quickly as their real estate debt collapses. Because crazy as it may seem, it was the real estate bubble that brought in the foreign exchange - in the form of mortgage loans denominated in foreign currencies - that financed their structural trade deficits. Now that the bubble has burst, there's no way of keeping these neoliberal hothouse economic experiments afloat.' by Professor Michael Hudson |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
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Lasty,
I am really not a property player, simple really, originally from Gernany, moved to Oz and decided to hold all my assets. You could say that I like to poses 'things'. |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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ang,
I love jokes..
Interesting times for you ahead with the currency plays in overseas properties?
Your not going to surprise me by being on Australia's secret millionaire are you ? |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
3:58 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty,
I am in the sane boat, just that not all my properties are in Oz.
I was making a joke with my earlier post. Hell, I could be buried in long term, short term I don't care if going up or going down (home price that is). |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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ang,
I dont speculate in property.
Its too cumbersome and illiquid.
I only have a couple to live in.
So I dont care if the properties go up or down.
The hassle of packing,shifting and unpacking isnt worth the grief. |
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By: rodneysaviour2
28/10/2009
3:27 pm |
Message deleted. |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
2:57 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty,
there is no panic. Just like you, I am waiting for the other 20% fall (adjusted for inflation) than we will all buy property. Simple really: the longer we wait the cheaper it gets (: |
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By: newton.cowley@y7mail.com
28/10/2009
2:55 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Try this one for a property spruiker reply! The sky is falling the sky is falling! I don't think so! It is all about undersupply!
Aussie house prices aren’t overvalued: IMF
Posted on Tuesday, October 27 2009 at 6:19 PM
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reversed its previous position, saying there's no significant overvaluation of Australian house prices.
"In the case of Australia, if the impact of long-term migration on housing demand is taken into account, the results do not produce evidence of a significant overvaluation of house prices," the body's October 2009 World Economic Outlook Report notes.
The October 2009 edition of the RP Data-Rismark Monthly report notes Rismark and Westpac have previously criticised IMF analyses of Australia's housing market for excluding supply-side factors.
The report says the supply side is "obviously a critical determinant of prices over time".
The IMF's World Economic Outlook Report also suggests Australia's housing market correction is almost over.
"If past is prologue, these estimates suggest that the Netherlands and Finland are likely to see further house price declines, whereas the corrections in Australia and the United States are close to complete," it says. |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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As mentioned Sydney was 100.2 as at June 09 (in-fact less than Dec 2003), and adjusted for inflation that would be -16% (refer to ABS CPI stats). So Sydney's almost halfway there to the 40% decline posited by the title of this forum. Any comments property spruikers?"
Oh in the case then housing has become more affordable.. Whats all the panic about then ;-) |
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By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
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| Yes Jay, good points and well made. I'm glad there's discussion about something other than definitions of value and price etc (that's what undergrad studies are for). I just think property's great when it's moving up, and over the very long-run that's the case. But that was then and this is now. And new borrowers are sill entering into doing interest-only loans! Now, maybe you can advise total cost (entry, exit, fees, charges, maintenance, upgrades, adjustment for inflation at, say, 3.5%) over 30 years given a 90% loan. |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
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cxxx,
I have rarely have seen such a confused argument as you are putting forward.
Could you please explain it in a simple way so the slow minded people like me can understand your point. |
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By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
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Thanks got it, the only problem I can see with these figures is it is calculated as a weighted average, to me as an investor this means nothing.
But saying that you are correct about entry and exit costs, erosion due to inflation, costs of periodic maintenance and upgrades.
The thing with property is you avoid selling at all costs, maintenance & upgrades are claimable on tax or removed from CGT when sold (upgrades add to the sale price) not sure what you mean by erosion due to inflation. Property usually goes up by inflation as a minimum due to the majority being bought as homes not investment properties. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
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| I don't recall Keen saying anything about 40% drop adjusted for inflation. lol |
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By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
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| David -as mentioned Sydney was 100.2 as at June 09 (in-fact less than Dec 2003), and adjusted for inflation that would be -16% (refer to ABS CPI stats). So Sydney's almost halfway there to the 40% decline posited by the title of this forum. Any comments property spruikers? |
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By: cxxxx@rocketmail.com
28/10/2009
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ABS Home > Statistics > By Catalogue Number
then click link for 6416.0
See, that's the thing about all the property spruikers out there - they don't tell you about all the entry and exit costs, erosion due to inflation, costs of periodic maintenance and upgrades. It's all well and good to talk about the past ten years and even more recently about investing in Darwin and what not. But what capacity will the average person pay for the average dwelling in future? That's what I mean - wages would need to outpace inflation etc, or people duped into trying to sustain an asset rich poverty trap. |
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By: davidjtroy
28/10/2009
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Thanks for the link.
I had a quick look through and can't see where you get a 15% decrese from.
The index they use has 2003 figures at 100 and the current figures are 100+, doesn't that mean prices increased? |
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