By: mentawaisurf
24/11/2009
6:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Jade, actually Elliott Wave forecasted that 2010 will be the BIG down year in financial markets (all asset classes) as the deflation intensifies.
But just the initial leg down of this larger bear-market decline would see a rapid test of the March lows in stock indexes. Whether this trend resumes now or in early 2010 it should become apparent soon enough.
For more take a look at this interview with Robert Prechter;
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/prechter-bob-d epew-kevin-bears-elliott-wave-international/index/ a/25382 |
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By: jadeshangrila
24/11/2009
5:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, the purpose of this bet was to see the accuracy of forecast base on various methods. Yours would obviously be the elliote wave which you are a fan of. Mine will be based on our original thought. We have a policy not follow prophets or the media or analysis from any other investment funds or persons. One can never be a sucessful trader trying to follow someone else's foot steps. There is a difference between a learned person and a intelligent person. One can recite a whole text while the other invent his own. The prove is in the winnings. |
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By: mentawaisurf
24/11/2009
4:38 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Well, whether my ASX200 forecast of 3120 by years end is reached or not, I believe the resumption of the underlying bear-market trend will be obvious to everyone by then. And in doing so my cautionary tone will be vindicated so that my presence is no longer required. For my sole aim was to counter the consensus hype, hysteria, denial and wishful thinking of the pundits who proclaim to be experts and the financial media who condition our collective beliefs.
That being the case, my work here will be done. |
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By: christopher_mck
24/11/2009
4:12 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| what a laugh . People predicting a massive drop in house prices and we see the direct opposite. Not one of you are anything even boardering on an expert. Even the 'experts' cant get it right so why do yall think you know better? |
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By: jaymarcel
24/11/2009
9:50 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Jenny please don't shoot the messenger I was only copy & pasting an article based on a survey.
I don't want property prices to go up in Australia, I don't want anything to go up or down but the fact is I can't change it, I can only speculate like the rest.
In my view we can all still afford a home you just have to work the figures & put the hard yakka in (same as its always been). |
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By: firefly_au
24/11/2009
9:44 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello Jade :)
I predict something similar for today too :)
Now lets really do some predicting - do you have a prediction for the close on the Friday before Xmass? If you do is it likely to be better than mine at 5100 on the ASX200 ? I suspect I could be preparing a tasty dish of boiled crow for my supper that day but I just did the prediction for fun he he :) Would you care to have a go?
Unfortunately I seem to have the strong A$ working against my prediction possibly due to the huge US$ carry trade and massive inflows of cheap foreign capital, but I still live in hope! :)
BYE :) |
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By: jennyxuanwu
24/11/2009
9:42 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"Generation Y mortgage holders are capable of repaying their mortgage at an interest rate of at least nine per cent, a mortgage broker survey says.
According Mortgage Choice's 2009 consumer sentiment survey,"
Hi Jay,I don't agree with you on this.
I know you love to hear that property prices in Australia will keep going up for ever. However use this as back up for your theory is like a realestate agent telling a potential buyer that: it is the right time to buy or this is the last chance to secure a property.- a mortgage broker would say things like that. |
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By: jaymarcel
24/11/2009
9:34 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| No ang it's my poor sense of humour, without making it obvious I hope you look back on my des comment in relation to your tutu reference |
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By: jaymarcel
24/11/2009
9:32 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| jades the only true limit is time & I agree hopefully menta will stay as he provides for a valid & interesting arguement. |
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By: ang101000
24/11/2009
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Sorry Jay,
I don't quite follow your racism and slavery remark in regards to my earlier post.
If I offended you in any way - I'm making an apology now - I am very sorry.
Ang |
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By: jadeshangrila
24/11/2009
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| Ang, the market will head above 4800 and will close very close to that number on the up or the bottom plus minus a hundred points. I hope Menta will stay, even if his forecast wasn't correct because it is good to have an intellect with a different point of view regarding the economy for a good debate. You can't have the left without the right. I find that some economist have too much emphasis on the monetary system forgetting that it can be manipulated like a computer program by the government and limitations in the human economy is actually only limited by resources whether human or mineral or water or energy or land or clean air. The limit of the economy will come when such is things come to it's limit. |
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By: jaymarcel
24/11/2009
9:17 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang prediction is all we have.
I also think racism & slavery is out so leave desmond alone he's not interested in your christmas party |
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By: lasty49
24/11/2009
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ang,
With all that Viagra and market stimulus Im out of breath.
After a few correctional sessions (a cigarette break) it looks like we are up up and away.
I try not to let Menta's coitus interuptus affect my trend ;-) |
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By: ang101000
24/11/2009
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Are we all still trying to predict the market? Humm, I am off to buy my black tutu:-), need to wear something appropriate for the office x-mas party....
Menta,
Start waxing your legs...( Chances are we both going to wrong; the market remains irrational).
Lasty,
How you going with your prediction? I think, the market could do with a Viagra treatment ( at least the charts would point to 'up' direction). |
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By: jaymarcel
24/11/2009
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Menta, this very website has a news article today that gives reason as to why house prices will continue to go up & have a long way to go before they become unaffordable to Gen Y.
"Gen Y capable of repaying their mortgage
Monday November 23, 2009, 5:50 pm
Generation Y mortgage holders are capable of repaying their mortgage at an interest rate of at least nine per cent, a mortgage broker survey says.
According Mortgage Choice's 2009 consumer sentiment survey, 64 per cent of existing borrowers aged 18 to 29 years said they could afford repayments at, or above nine per cent.
Of those, almost half - 46 per cent - are prepared to repay at 11 per cent or more." |
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By: enoughwealth
23/11/2009
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Menta wrote: "...yes there will be enough housing to go around for all. Housing at affordable prices again in just a few years time"
I'm glad the ASX200 index on Dec 31 will stop Menta writing this sort of wishful thinking nonsense!. Although he allegedly means well, if any wanne-be FHO read this and decide to put off buying a home until Menta's utopia arrives they could be waiting a L-O-N-G time.
Considering only the Sydney market (which I'm familiar with) I'd expect average prices to be up by 10%-30% five years from now. At that time wages will probably be about 15%-25% higher than now, so housing won't be any more affordable compared to today (probably less so if interest rates are closed to long-term average), and today's prices will look relatively 'affordable' in hind-sight.
Of course this view assumes that we continue to see inflation rates typical of the past couple of decades. Since Menta expects an unusual deflationary episode to hit the Australian economy any day now, he'd disagree. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
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Menta,
"A FORTY per cent increase in Sydney's population over the next 20 years means the State Government has no option but to open up scores of suburbs for new developments, according to a radical proposal for Sydney to build 640,000 new dwellings."
Source SMH.
If current infrastructure is anything to go by in NSW, most will be living in tents. |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
1:08 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, yes there will be enough housing to go around for all. Housing at affordable prices again in just a few years time. Although the pain for too many will be severe during this transitional deflationary price adjustment, the end result of affordable and sustainabe housing prices will ultimately be a good thing.
Jay, did you even read this article?
Gold Coast defies naysayers
The Australian. November 19, 2009.
THE troubled and erratic Gold Coast housing market has thrown up another surprise, with a report showing about the same number and value of residential projects are either starting or under way as at the height of the 2007 boom.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/ gold-coast-defies-naysaye rs/story-e6frg9gx-1225799 478533?from=public_rss |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
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"the point being that it will be too late for too many of the record number of Australian's who have a record large mortgage."
Well people dont mind paying for a roof over their head it seems.
Perhaps many have decided to use their homes as their source of entertainment rather than spending elsewhere.
The change in human behaviour is very hard to map.
It could be that society is going through a skimp and save mode and home entertainment is the most affordable option.
If thats the case that will put more upward pressure on the housing market.
But Menta you shouldnt be really concerned because Keen stated that there was a housing surplus so there will be enough to go around for all ;-) |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
23/11/2009
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"Unfortunately these dwellings will come online just as the most severe phase of the credit contraction and housing price deflation develops"
Not likey since some of the biggest developers on the Gold Coast recently went belly up. |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
12:07 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Lasty, the point being that it will be too late for too many of the record number of Australian's who have a record large mortgage. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
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Menta,
"Unfortunately by then it will be too late for too many."
Who for?
Those who have a house or those wishing to buy one?
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,2832 3,26386850-5013951,00.html |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
11:50 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"Keep with the trend folks until the signals are conclusive that its broken."
Lasty, unfortunately by then it will be too late for too many. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
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The property market has been forewarned by spruikers like Keen that a bubble will burst.
The media has also been on the case.
So the shock value should be taken out of the equation.
Sure there are some who go in blindly but most are prepared.
This also goes for other asset bubbles. Menta keeps warning us via excerpts of others.
The wholesale markets are indeed expecting a decline.
Many are reluctant to buy at these levels however the market keeps ratcheting higher as the top pickers get squeezed.
Keep with the trend folks until the signals are conclusive that its broken. |
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By: jaymarcel
23/11/2009
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Keep dreaming! The property boom is back don't you guys read the news & look at the data that comes in each week.
With China continuing to exchange money for our dirt the australian economy & job market is safe along with our house prices until the next gfc.
If I were you guys I'd be more concerned of the gold price bubble that is where the sheep are headed & that usually leads to a tearful end. |
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