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Predict house prices to drop 40-50%

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By: jaymarcel
20/04/2009
11:09 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hey Bakerr25, I have acreage about 4 hours from brisbane, plenty of land around, cheapish, plenty of water, my neighbour has 500 acres & grows fruit'n'veg for the markets.
There is more useful land out there than you city folk realise. If you quit your 9-5 & travel a bit more you may see this for yourself.
Cities only have water because we put the infrastructure there unless your house water is supplied from a natural spring?

By: bakerr25
18/04/2009
5:06 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
[in oz theres plenty of land keft] bloody fool u go live in the desert that what u get once u leave our water ways and rivers we have a big country but its not all green and full of houses some people just dont get we are so bloody dry out side of the citys can uyou eat and drink sand please tell the rest of us your grand plan to starve people in our outback look until you go drive around our great [dry] country and see for yourself you can not invite people to settle in central oz they wouldnt last weeks let alone live

By: firefly_au
17/04/2009
3:55 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi lasty :)

"It has an uncanny knack of knowing what area to target, the ones with out of control population. Funny that"

So true, that's the way nature works alright. :)

BYE :)

By: firefly_au
17/04/2009
3:52 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi Jay :)

Actually cities only seem wasteful! On an individual basis maybe they are. However I believe that cities only exist because they are relatively efficient machines that allow the maximum population to exist in a given land area.

With out modern cities and the energy required to sustain them the world could not support the population we now have at all, as all of us would be hungry and miles from services.

BYE :)

By: ang101000
17/04/2009
1:37 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi Menta,

Many of us see the need of a revolutionary change instead of the evolutionary change of ideas for human development. Our current system slowly evolved throughout history and moved from exploration to exploitation of the world’s environment and all its resources. Only two forces are powerful enough to change the paradigm of civilization; one is society’s determination (or from down-to-up), second is by leadership resolve (or top-to-bottom). There is no evidence at this time of the global crises that any of these forces have enough strength to break the status quo.
In the short term (my lifetime), I am not optimistic that we’ll experience real transformation in the way we live. There is plenty of evidence why it is so. For meaningful change inhibitors please see;
http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/we alth.html.

A

By: lasty49
17/04/2009
11:02 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
You know what Pizzes me off Firefly, the same old do-gooders are saying "feed the over populated world and on the other hand are damning climate change".
Nature like always will counter balance.
It has an uncanny knack of knowing what area to target, the ones with out of control population. Funny that

By: firefly_au
17/04/2009
8:19 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi Denis :)

The demographics are already in place for a major population decline by natural processes (old age). By the year 2050 the population is expected decline as indicated by some of the charts I have seen. The early signs of this occurring are an aging population and except for in Africa due to aids this is occurring. Even in China the population is aging I believe due to the one child policy.

BYE

By: jaymarcel
17/04/2009
6:47 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
You guys have to stop being so over the top about the economy, we can't just have continuous boom of course there will be times the economy stay still or go backwards.
I can only assume you all lost alot of money on the market to be so negative.
Prices go up & prices go down, as long as you don't get greedy & gamble everything you have on either the share market or property & just what you need to get financially secure.
THIS IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD, JUST A TINY BLIP
We need to change the way we see money or wealth, not change the system of currency

By: jaymarcel
17/04/2009
6:34 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi Den, I am not a believer of the population being too high & why would anyone think this?
In Oz alone there is plenty of land left, it is our own personal management of resources & waste that is the problem. As we are not personally involved in the growing of our own fruit & veg or the growing & killing of our meat we are very wasteful. If individuals could see how cheap it is to live in the country with solar/wind power & tank water/dam all on their own property then perhaps the business world could see that most could work from home via the internet, then the cities would not be so over populated & wasteful.

By: glh40
17/04/2009
2:16 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system?
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:41PM BST 16 Apr 2009

Hard money enthusiasts have long watched for signs that China is switching its foreign reserves from US Treasury bonds into gold bullion. They may have been eyeing the wrong metal..
"China has woken up. The West is a black hole with all this money being printed.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, piqued the interest of metal buffs last month by calling for a world currency modelled on the "Bancor", floated by John Maynard Keynes at Bretton Woods in 1944.

While Beijing's fiscal stimulus package and credit expansion has helped lift demand, China faces a property downturn of its own. One government adviser warned this week that house prices could fall 50pc

One thing is clear: Beijing suspects that the US Federal Reserve is engineering a covert default on America's debt by printing money. Premier Wen Jiabao issued a blunt warning last month that China was tiring of US bonds. "We have lent a huge amount of money to the US, so of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," he said.

Beijing may yet buy gold as well, although it has not done so yet. The gold share of reserves has fallen to 1pc, far below the historic norm in Asia. But if a metal-based currency ever emerges to end the reign of fiat paper, it is just as likely to be a "Copper Standard" as a "Gold Standard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose evans_pritchard/5160120/A-Copper-Standard-for-the- worlds-currency-system.html

By: docsfamilymoved
17/04/2009
1:32 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
menta
I agree with your approach and method of repair to the situation.
We all made the mess,so we need to start cleaning it up, and now is the best time to do it.
A lot of people are going to have more time on their hands,which means more time to put into action new plans for a cleaner more productive world.


=

By: glh40
17/04/2009
12:23 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
The Astounding Reversal Continues: Bernanke�s Nightmare

The day of reckoning is now visibly approaching. But no one is sounding the alarm. This is ignored. It�s business as usual on Wall Street.

Gary North
The Astounding Reversal Continues: Bernanke�s Nightmare
April 16, 2009

Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury released the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report for February 2009. It shows another outflow of capital. �Monthly net TIC flows were negative $97.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $106.3 billion, and net foreign official flows were positive $9.3 billion.�

The figure for January was updated to minus $147b from the previously reported minus $149b.

http://www.ustreas.gov/

This is a huge reversal. That is almost a quarter of a trillion dollars in just two months. Foreigners are not bailing out the Treasury any longer. They are pulling out. They are net sellers.

This means that domestic buyers must be found � not just for the gigantic wave of debt already on the books but also for the foreigners who are saying sayonara.

The FED has not budgeted for this. It has pretended that the much-heralded glut of international savings would continue. It�s over. It�s not just over; it�s imploding. We are now seeing a glut of selling.

This will create havoc for the government. The days of wine and roses has ended. The bailouts from outside the country have gone into reverse.

This will put upward pressure on Treasury interest rates. If and when the recovery overcomes fear of other assets, the sell-off of Treasuries by Americans will begin. The Treasury will have to offer higher rates. Goodbye recovery.

Or the FED will have to buy. Goodbye dollar.

Yikes..... Posted FWIW to those who are ahead of the Monopoly games we play...Paper Gold goes to Zero with Bonds..... Physical Gold and Greed for it to da Moon with Interest rates....Everyone Else gets Smoked.. ...

By: ang101000
16/04/2009
4:33 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
There has not been any real positive change in the world economy. In Oz, most listed companies are still shedding jobs and are reducing their earning expectation. There is no reason to be in this market, other than to follow the herd mentality. I am afraid we are still looking into the abyss and the abyss looks back at us.

In regards as to what shape the recovery will take, in my (non-expert) opinion it will be a U. I would add one observation; the cycles are getting more frequent and shorter.

By: mentawaisurf
16/04/2009
4:19 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Dennis, perhaps this is the economic crash we have to have in order to rebalance by employing sustainable and equitable living practices. A global recession would also allow the planet a brief respite from global warming until we can clean up our energy production.

Such radical change will not occur by choice but by force. China's economic growth has already halved from its recent peak and global growth will contract in 2009 for the first time in over 50 years. Severe recessionary years lie ahead, however, a positive outcome can result over time if we collectively stay committed to the cause.

By: denroxon
16/04/2009
3:04 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Good day to you i am not sure if you have been outside Australia but i have traveled all over the world for the last 30 years with work and we do not know how lucky we are in this country to have fresh air clean skys and good drinking water.
80 % of the poulation would kill to get what we have hear in this country.
That is why i say that we can not go on living like we are , the oceans are polluted. The sky is a gray colour and alot of the drinking water is killing people .
The fish stocks are dissapearing.
I work in the offshore oil and gas industry also our oil and gas is runnig out of the easy stuff to get out from here on in the price will continue to go up.
The best form of fertilzer is made from crude oil for dollar spent for large coverage.
Quess what the best form of insecticide is made from crude oil so with the price of crude at $54 and raising feeding the world is going to getalot harder from here on in .
Regards Dennis
Regards Dennis

By: itsmoney4nothing
16/04/2009
2:07 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
DENROXON''''

SO DOES THST MEAN THAT OUT OF YOUR VERY STRONG CONERN FOR THE SITUATION THAT YOU ARE OFFERING YOURSELF AS THE FIRST PERSON TO VOLUNTARILY LEAVE THE PLANET SO WE CAN START CORRECTING THE BALANCE OR DO YOU THINK PRINCE PHILLIP MIGHT BEAT YOU TO THE FRONT OF THE QUEUE!


'''

By: denroxon
16/04/2009
1:50 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
THE GOLD SILVER STANDARD LASTED FROM 1945 TO 1971 AND THE ECONOMY DID TRAVEL ALONG AT NOT TO BAD A CLIP BUT THE POPULATION WAS ONLY 2.5 BILLION INCREASING SLOWLY. I DO NOT KNOW OF ANY OTHER WAY OF CONTROLLING THE MONEY SUPPLY BUT IT NEEDS TO BE CONTROLLED AS WE WILL JUST END UP BACK IN THE SAME SITUATION AS ALL CENTRAL BANKS CAN NOT BE TRUSTED NOT TO PRINT MORE MONEY THEM THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THAT COUNTRY.
WHEN THE WORLD HAS A CRISIS LIKE THIS WE END UP IN A MAJOR WAR AND I BELEIVE THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT WW3 AND ALL THAT IMPLIES.
WITH A POPULATION OF 6.7 BILLION THE EARTH CAN NOT PROVIDE FOR ALL THESE PEOPLE WITH WATER FOOD AND SHELTER , I THINK THAT WE HAVE REACH A PEAK IN THE POPULATION AND IT WILL START TO GO DOWN SOME TIME IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE.
PRINCE PHILLIP HAS PUT THE IDEA FORWARD THAT THE WORLD NEEDS TO GO BACK TO A POPULATION OF LESS THAN 2 BILLION IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS TO SAVE THE PLANT.
I KNOW FULL WELL THAT WE CAN NOT STAY AT THIS LEVEL OF PEOPLE ON THIS PLANT.
HOPING THAT THIS IS NOT TO OUT THERE .
REGARDS DENNIS

By: firefly_au
16/04/2009
12:42 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi Denis :)

A lot of what you say about the Faith systems of currencies is true but replacing it with the old gold standard in my view won't work. The problem is too many people producing too much economic activity owning too much wealth.

So even though we cant always trust the central banks and governments to keep it under control it is the best system that we can find. Governments that fail to control the currency always pay the price. Zimbabwe is an example that comes to mind for a failure. Their currency is no longer in circulation and Zimbabwe no longer has a currency.

However if you have a better way in mind that 6 billion people can arrange their financial dealings and economic activity. Please feel free to pass it on as I would be interested in your ideas.

BYE :)

By: denroxon
16/04/2009
12:17 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
I am not sure what bank you are dealing with but i am getting 5% on $600 000 withe the bank of queensland for three months .
If i think there is a risk i will tranfer my bllance to the commonwelth bank and still get 4% still not bad.
The LIBOR which is the London over night bank rate has moved up 0.3 % in the last week so interest rates ar on there way up.
This is a rate that all mortages are set by , the last time we were in this position it took 6 months to go from ^5 to 16% in the 80s
Regards Dennis

By: denroxon
16/04/2009
12:10 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hi there gold and silver have been money for 6000 years or an exchange for good and services , the FAIT money system has been tried since ROMAN times and failled every time .
Like the ROMAN Empire the USA Empire is collapsing because of debt - to much . The money supply has gone up 1000 times since 1960 from a 100 billion Dollars to 1000 Trillion Dollars . 96 % of that money supply is electronic and 4% is cash.
The Usa took 250 years to go from no debt to 9 Trillion dollars and in the last 2 years has gone from 9 Trillion to 16 Trillion Dollars.
In the 1920 the depression was caused by to much debt but the world has not seen anything like the levels we have today.
Gold and silver stop the Central banks from printing more money tham there is gold and silver in the vault.
Once Nixon took the USA of the gold standard in 1971 the central banks started printing more and more money every year at a rate of 14% even though the economy was not growing at that rate.
The straw that broke the camals back so to speak was the was the ousting of the GLASS STEGAL act in congress in 1999 by the investment banks so they could now get at the average persons saving and invest them into derivatries.
Which are of the order of 1000 Trillion Dollars and growing by 30% a year up until 2008.
This is just some of the reasons why we need to understand how gold and silver works to fix this problem but that will not happen under the current system of liars deception.

By: lasty49
16/04/2009
9:31 am

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
"What will be the best investment now? House is not rising, Share is too high and cash in the bank just give you 2% ??
This is really a trouble world and i am just like a lost ship in a high tide ocean with no direction."

You need to work out a time frame rather than stating an "in the moment" opinion.

By: conbaiye
16/04/2009
8:46 am

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Looking for Gold Buyers to sell my raw Gold Nuggets.

Casper Phone: +675 5483426

By: firefly_au
15/04/2009
11:56 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Hello Dennis :)

A lot of what you say is very interesting and I respect your views. However I can't agree with you on the idea of returning to the gold standard as the basis for all currency in the world.

All the major economies of the world have moved away from gold because there are too many people resulting in too much economic activity with too little gold to be able to represent the activity in a reasonable manor.

Gold has no intrinsic value above its industrial use and as a jewelry due to its scarceness. As a commodity it only has the value that the next buyer will pay for it. So in some ways its value is based purely on faith. In a deflation event its value is as likely to fall as any other commodity.

This does not mean it may not be a good investment should inflation kick in, but as a basis for all the worlds currencies - I think not and I can't see any world gov'ts attempting to return to that. In history I think the Bank of England attempted that once and the economy totally collapsed.

BYE:)

By: denroxon
15/04/2009
6:16 pm

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In the last DEPRESSION ( 1929 to 1932 ) there were 40% of homes empty as 3 or more families moved into one house. Wagers dropped 60 to 70 % and unemployment was at 25% and more for while.
The governments do not understand that the money system is failling due to the FIAT money system which was started in the UK in the 1696 and now is in the final stage of failling completely.
If you are looking for a good investment it would have to be GOLD and SILVER Bullion and coins , i have invested in this and have done very well so far and i believe that there is alot more upside for this investment.
Regards Dennis

By: denroxon
15/04/2009
5:57 pm

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Re:Predict house prices to drop 40-50% Reply to this message
Good afternoon to you first question i have just arrived back from the UK and the USA and both countries housing are falling at 2% a month so with unemployment going up in this country we can expect to see housing prices fall.
I live in Tasmania and the first home buy has stopped buying becuase they now need a 10% deposit on top of the home owners grant.
Also interest rates are starting to go up as the USA tries to sell Trillions of dollars worth of bonds and there are NO buyers for the amount they have to sell.
The BOND market is taking a hit now and you will see interest rates 10% or more by the end of this year i beleive.
You then go onto mention WW1 and WW2 but the great depression started in 1929 and house prices only climb back to wear they were in 1948 when the solders come home and got married. That was the first time in Australias history that house prices went mad and 1999 to 2006 was the second time.
We are now entering a new depression as the FIAT money system is collapsing as the world has to much debt back by nothing other than thin air.
We need to go back to a gold and silver back money system like we had right up until 1900 to stop the central banks from printing more money than there is gold and silver in the vault , like a circiut breaker in you electrical system when something goes wrong.
If you go to a site called gold eagle editorials i think you will read some very interesting articales.
Good Luck Dennis
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