By: jaymarcel
6 days ago (Tuesday, 9:17 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang prediction is all we have.
I also think racism & slavery is out so leave desmond alone he's not interested in your christmas party |
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By: lasty49
6 days ago (Tuesday, 9:15 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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ang,
With all that Viagra and market stimulus Im out of breath.
After a few correctional sessions (a cigarette break) it looks like we are up up and away.
I try not to let Menta's coitus interuptus affect my trend ;-) |
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By: ang101000
6 days ago (Tuesday, 9:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Are we all still trying to predict the market? Humm, I am off to buy my black tutu:-), need to wear something appropriate for the office x-mas party....
Menta,
Start waxing your legs...( Chances are we both going to wrong; the market remains irrational).
Lasty,
How you going with your prediction? I think, the market could do with a Viagra treatment ( at least the charts would point to 'up' direction). |
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By: jaymarcel
6 days ago (Tuesday, 8:11 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, this very website has a news article today that gives reason as to why house prices will continue to go up & have a long way to go before they become unaffordable to Gen Y.
"Gen Y capable of repaying their mortgage
Monday November 23, 2009, 5:50 pm
Generation Y mortgage holders are capable of repaying their mortgage at an interest rate of at least nine per cent, a mortgage broker survey says.
According Mortgage Choice's 2009 consumer sentiment survey, 64 per cent of existing borrowers aged 18 to 29 years said they could afford repayments at, or above nine per cent.
Of those, almost half - 46 per cent - are prepared to repay at 11 per cent or more." |
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By: enoughwealth
23/11/2009
1:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta wrote: "...yes there will be enough housing to go around for all. Housing at affordable prices again in just a few years time"
I'm glad the ASX200 index on Dec 31 will stop Menta writing this sort of wishful thinking nonsense!. Although he allegedly means well, if any wanne-be FHO read this and decide to put off buying a home until Menta's utopia arrives they could be waiting a L-O-N-G time.
Considering only the Sydney market (which I'm familiar with) I'd expect average prices to be up by 10%-30% five years from now. At that time wages will probably be about 15%-25% higher than now, so housing won't be any more affordable compared to today (probably less so if interest rates are closed to long-term average), and today's prices will look relatively 'affordable' in hind-sight.
Of course this view assumes that we continue to see inflation rates typical of the past couple of decades. Since Menta expects an unusual deflationary episode to hit the Australian economy any day now, he'd disagree. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
1:26 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
"A FORTY per cent increase in Sydney's population over the next 20 years means the State Government has no option but to open up scores of suburbs for new developments, according to a radical proposal for Sydney to build 640,000 new dwellings."
Source SMH.
If current infrastructure is anything to go by in NSW, most will be living in tents. |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
1:08 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, yes there will be enough housing to go around for all. Housing at affordable prices again in just a few years time. Although the pain for too many will be severe during this transitional deflationary price adjustment, the end result of affordable and sustainabe housing prices will ultimately be a good thing.
Jay, did you even read this article?
Gold Coast defies naysayers
The Australian. November 19, 2009.
THE troubled and erratic Gold Coast housing market has thrown up another surprise, with a report showing about the same number and value of residential projects are either starting or under way as at the height of the 2007 boom.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/ gold-coast-defies-naysaye rs/story-e6frg9gx-1225799 478533?from=public_rss |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
1:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"the point being that it will be too late for too many of the record number of Australian's who have a record large mortgage."
Well people dont mind paying for a roof over their head it seems.
Perhaps many have decided to use their homes as their source of entertainment rather than spending elsewhere.
The change in human behaviour is very hard to map.
It could be that society is going through a skimp and save mode and home entertainment is the most affordable option.
If thats the case that will put more upward pressure on the housing market.
But Menta you shouldnt be really concerned because Keen stated that there was a housing surplus so there will be enough to go around for all ;-) |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
23/11/2009
12:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Unfortunately these dwellings will come online just as the most severe phase of the credit contraction and housing price deflation develops"
Not likey since some of the biggest developers on the Gold Coast recently went belly up. |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
12:07 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Lasty, the point being that it will be too late for too many of the record number of Australian's who have a record large mortgage. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
11:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
"Unfortunately by then it will be too late for too many."
Who for?
Those who have a house or those wishing to buy one?
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,2832 3,26386850-5013951,00.html |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
11:50 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"Keep with the trend folks until the signals are conclusive that its broken."
Lasty, unfortunately by then it will be too late for too many. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
9:01 am Yahoo! Profile:
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The property market has been forewarned by spruikers like Keen that a bubble will burst.
The media has also been on the case.
So the shock value should be taken out of the equation.
Sure there are some who go in blindly but most are prepared.
This also goes for other asset bubbles. Menta keeps warning us via excerpts of others.
The wholesale markets are indeed expecting a decline.
Many are reluctant to buy at these levels however the market keeps ratcheting higher as the top pickers get squeezed.
Keep with the trend folks until the signals are conclusive that its broken. |
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By: jaymarcel
23/11/2009
7:36 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Keep dreaming! The property boom is back don't you guys read the news & look at the data that comes in each week.
With China continuing to exchange money for our dirt the australian economy & job market is safe along with our house prices until the next gfc.
If I were you guys I'd be more concerned of the gold price bubble that is where the sheep are headed & that usually leads to a tearful end. |
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By: dr.xingli_writes
22/11/2009
9:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Wow! What a BIG BUBBLE it is!!
There is now little doubt in many peoples minds that the "burst of the property bubble" shall be deafening and occur with little if any warning.
The effects of such a catastrophic event here at home where most people in one way or another are heavily invested in property shall be dreadful.
I urge each and every member of society to awaken to the reality that things have changed.
That whereas property purchases in one form or another were regarded in the past as quite possibley the safest and wisest form of "investing in one`s future" this may very well no longer be the case, (to say the least).
Beware the PROPERTY TRAP. |
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By: mentawaisurf
20/11/2009
3:05 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| You're spot on Hugh. In fact Australia's housing bubble has grown to look akin to the proverbial hippy who is well overdue for a 'haircut'. And it's likely to be more like a shave cut than a trim. |
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By: hdmausguy
20/11/2009
1:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| menta - Perhaps a glimpse of the future here. Bloomberg Nov 16 2009. Goldman Sachs,in Miami Florida sold 158 condominiums in a FORECLOSED Miami project for $113,000 each. This being roughly 1/3 of the land & construction costs. In a notable understatement Real Estate broker Peter Zalewski said "they(Goldman Sachs)took a big haircut". Peter went on to say the average unit size is 102 sq/m. He also noted that Miami condo prices had fallen 37% in the past year. |
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By: hdmausguy
20/11/2009
12:57 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| menta - I'm with you 100% on your Gold Coast post. Further to that, I get a weekly market wrap via Elitetraders. In their letter last Monday 16/11/09 they mentioned developers/marketers City Pacific had a below market selloff of a Gold Coast office tower for $9.5 million. This was $5.5 million below their $15 million list price 12 months ago. They also said that there is still plenty of these time bombs waiting to go off. It was also mentioned that commercial real estate in Australia is just as sick as in USA. |
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By: mentawaisurf
20/11/2009
12:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Gold Coast defies naysayers
The Australian. November 19, 2009.
THE troubled and erratic Gold Coast housing market has thrown up another surprise, with a report showing about the same number and value of residential projects are either starting or under way as at the height of the 2007 boom.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/ gold-coast-defies-naysayers/story-e6frg9gx-1225799 478533?from=public_rss
Even with record mortgagee sales, Gold Coast developers are back to building record numbers of dwellings (influenced by all the hype about a supposed housing shortage, growing population and an imminent recovery in the economy and our housing market). This is typical behavior near a peak in optimism for a recovery (ie. build them and they will come). Unfortunately these dwellings will come online just as the most severe phase of the credit contraction and housing price deflation develops. Expect mortgagee rates to soar to never-before-seen levels over the next few years (not only on the Gold Coast but all around Australia). |
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By: eamon167
20/11/2009
9:53 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Agree with davidkam88.
Other things now.
I reckon the top govt officals are trying to
maximise the housing prices before they can cash in on the ridiculous housing market.
Once the bubble goes burst, they will be able to pickup half-price-bargains and cash in again.
Devious cycles.
### You know Australia has the world's most expensive houses in terms of average salaries per person ###
This bubble is no doubt gona go burst just a matter of time.
Can you all top govt officials squeeze the money out of the fatcats instead of ordinary ppl? |
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By: jaymarcel
20/11/2009
8:04 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Unfortunately al the gov needs to do something to get people living in QLD to move to reginal areas, Brisbane is being destroyed by the speed of change due to population growth & there are plenty of liveable country towns. |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
18/11/2009
8:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Sorry Vicinity |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
18/11/2009
8:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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No, because with the driver of Capital Gain from selling at a profit gone out the window, the increased rent only balances the interest rates going up. In fact these rent increases cause a reduction in negative gearing benefits off your salary, because your tax bill goes up. Rent increases have to in the vicinition of $50 or more a week in most cases to make real estate prices to go up.
Al |
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By: winghang_hui
18/11/2009
6:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| How about if the rent is increasing, the investment return from property is better than the other market? Do the investor will buy the property? |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
18/11/2009
5:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Goverments have little interest in reducing house prices, too much downside and less taxes. Look at Anna Bligh wanting to give an extra $3000 to first home buyers who buy in regional areas. Joke! NO jobs and such a small amount.
$30,000 maybe and guarantee a job (council worker etc).
And the developer who tired after 3 months trying to get an appointment with Bligh. He wanted to develop a new community of low cost ($300,000) first homes but needed planning approval to increase the number to make it viable. He gave up and is NOT going to do it.
Al |
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