By: jaymarcel
5 days ago (Monday, 12:22 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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s_step, sounds risky & messy, like anything that promises tons of money.
Now you have told us how we could have made money, what's your advice for making tons of money now (before it happens) |
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By: s_step000
5 days ago (Monday, 9:22 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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"You are absolutely correct! Yes if you have borrowed USD and invested in Oz shares, you made (about) 128%"
I am not sure about this. I did not do this. The one I do is using derivative spreads to bet US financial going down and leverage by 15 times.
I did buy USD at AUD 0.65 but I really think it is just my luck to make money for this one.
"If u have a debt and your position is corect u make tons of money (say short US financial sector year ago).
Are you serious? In that case -could I have a few millions at zero percent, please..."
Sure why not if you are willing to pay me BBSW+3% and the loan is secured by your properties worth 1.4 times $$$ you want to borrow from me.
You can check in the market no one borrowing at zero percent commercially. The "zero" percent you are referring to is just the reference rate. In order to get that, you need to give all equity/asset at very deep discount. No one sane enough to do that unless you have no choice. |
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By: s_step000
5 days ago (Monday, 9:22 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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"You are absolutely correct! Yes if you have borrowed USD and invested in Oz shares, you made (about) 128%"
I am not sure about this. I did not do this. The one I do is using derivative spreads to bet US financial going down and leverage by 15 times.
I did buy USD at AUD 0.65 but I really think it is just my luck to make money for this one.
"If u have a debt and your position is corect u make tons of money (say short US financial sector year ago).
Are you serious? In that case -could I have a few millions at zero percent, please..."
Sure why not if you are willing to pay me BBSW+3% and the loan is secured by your properties worth 1.4 times $$$ you want to borrow from me.
You can check in the market no one borrowing at zero percent commercially. The "zero" percent you are referring to is just the reference rate. In order to get that, you need to give all equity/asset at very deep discount. No one sane enough to do that unless you have no choice. |
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By: jaymarcel
5 days ago (Monday, 7:18 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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qitulong, you obviously don't read the news on yahoo finance & you obviously have no clue as to what is going on in Australian property you should stick to the sharemarket where you may have a chance (even though you sound like one of those who has lost it all in the sharemarket including your super).
Property investors are diving back in amid rent rises again, Australia now officially also has on average the largest properties in the world, this is making it much harder to do comparisons around the world as until a greater portion in Australia move to apartments like in the UK it is not an equal comparison.
In Australia we have a better quality of life, living in our detached homes & are happy & can afford to go for this option. |
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By: ang101000
6 days ago (Sunday, 11:03 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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s-Step,
'If u have a debt and your position is corect u make tons of money (say short US financial sector year ago)'
Sorry, if you mean;
It is a dynamic attracting the attention of the perennial bears. Stern Business School's Nouriel Roubini describes it as "the mother of all carry trades", saying the rise in the value of risk assets is being driven by near zero interest rates in the US.
With the fall in the US dollar's value, investors are effectively borrowing at negative interest rates, as low as minus-20 per cent and achieving total returns, since world markets started to turn up in March, of 50 to 70 per cent.
"You short the dollar to buy any global risky assets," Roubini says, prophesying in the London Financial Times that the eventual result will be "the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever".
You are absolutely correct! Yes if you have borrowed USD and invested in Oz shares, you made (about) 128%.
My original remarks were made in a different context, more aimed at bank deleverage and default. |
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By: ang101000
6 days ago (Sunday, 9:14 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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S-tep,
'wrong. The lesson is to reasses the risk and the way is calculated and not debt. Debt can be constructive or destructive'.
Agree, still
I am not going to argue about the cost of debt versus return, that has been very eloquently explained by M&M.
If u have a debt and your position is corect u make tons of money (say short US financial sector year ago).
Are you serious? In that case -could I have a few millions at zero percent, please... |
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By: s_step000
6 days ago (Sunday, 8:33 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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"On the other hand; If you can draw one lesson from GFC it must be :you can't go broke if you don't have debts"
wrong. The lesson is to reasses the risk and the way is calculated and not debt. Debt can be constructive or destructive.
If u have a debt and your position is corect u make tons of money (say short US financial sector year ago).
If u have a debt and your position is wrong u loose money. |
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By: qitulong
6 days ago (Sunday, 7:13 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Now is most certan the bad time to buy house. It bette rto wait. BIG drop of prices will soon happen when everyone wake up and see reality of our situation here. Prices too high for everything because of many years of prospertity made it so. Now prosperity gone and governmet already wasted money on wrong stimulus for most part.
Bad economic situation here now. Worse soon! |
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By: rstuarts2000
27/11/2009
12:02 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Sorry:
People fundamentally don't want there pay and things to go down in "dollar" value. |
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By: rstuarts2000
27/11/2009
12:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, if we are going to experience deflation, it is going to be masked. The simple fact is governments around the world are printing money.
If you print money and have low to 0 interest rates, then home prices theoretically could go up, or stocks, or commodities. In any event your cash purchasing power goes down, thatâs a symptom of deflation.â (cut from link from one of Anges posts).
Prices and pays seem to be sticky to me. People fundamentally want there pay and things to go down in "dollar" value. Governments know this, so by printing money (in the form of stimulus and major government funded infrastructure projects) they are in real terms devaluing housing, pay etc in a way that does not upset the general public as much, even though the end result is the same as deflation in the way you describe. |
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By: jaymarcel
27/11/2009
10:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Except for australia where only yesterday a news article showed from a survey that over 30% of australians plan to buy property over the next two years, then today they report 1/2 million poms moved to Oz in 2008 all looking for somewhere to live. |
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By: mentawaisurf
27/11/2009
10:35 am Yahoo! Profile:
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By: mentawaisurf
2 days ago (Wednesday, 2:21 pm)
Menta, by 31/12/09 you expect "...the resumption of the underlying bear-market trend will be obvious to everyone by then"?
Ralph, there will be irrefutable signals and warning signs from around the world over coming weeks and months that the worst is not over and that recovery is not imminent - contrary to what we have been constantly told by our 'experts' (who also failed to warn us about the initial phase of the credit crisis).
As a hint, a 'correction' in China's stock market bubble will be an early warning sign of things to come (interesting that the Shanghai Index was down 3.5% yesterday and is currently down about 1% today). The other signs will become more apparent over the very near future.
It was indeed the very near future;
The Shanghai Index in China tanked another 3.6 percent yesterday - its biggest one-day fall since August 31.
European shares slipped 3.3 percent to record their biggest one-day percentage drop in seven months.
The new international debt crisis which has erupted in Dubai has stoked fears of a potential default and contagion around the global financial system, particularly in emerging markets.
We all know about the rising mortgage defaults in the US and around the world, the collapse of commercial real estate and other known risks. It's the myriad potential unknown risks that will spook markets causing a crash.
The ever expanding international debt bubble is showing early warning signs of the massive burst to come. |
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By: ang101000
26/11/2009
7:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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S_step,
Agree with you to a degree; everybody knows models work best on the catwalk...
On the other hand; If you can draw one lesson from GFC it must be :you can't go broke if you don't have debts.... |
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By: s_step000
26/11/2009
6:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Tks for the links.
Keen assume houses are bought all for speculation. Up to individual to decide whether this assumption is valid or not. Like others (including me) when he wrote journal papers, he was making some assumptions.
As we all know, there is always 2 side of coin thus depending how u write and justify your view.
I dont buy any theory or model that is valid for everything. Model and theory are developed under certain assumptions. :) |
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By: ang101000
26/11/2009
5:13 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Enough,
I think Menta has been watching Mr Doom;
'Marc Faber: USD Will go to a Value of Exactly Zero'
http://mellgren.com/category/deflation/
Fascinating, even if you don't agree with it. |
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By: ang101000
26/11/2009
4:27 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi S_step000,
I know you have asked Menta a few questions about household debt. Given that Menta has used Prof Steve Keens data in support of his posting, I thought, you should see the original document to argue your view. So here is a link for the original data as presented by Steve Keen (you need to download the file and read)
http://ifile.it/yonhws8
After reading it perhaps you be clearer about Menta's (and Keen's) view. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
26/11/2009
12:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Please practice impersonating a foreigner more. |
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By: qitulong
26/11/2009
12:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Mr. ecchi.gaijin. Mr. Menta is polite fella here. Why you can not be polite too? You always post bad things about other people on many these BLOG's but not seem to have sense of making up your own comment about anything discussed here. You just try to make fun of others. I not interested you or your bad comment about others. Please stay onthe subject and show us your knowledge. It welcome.
Also. Your ID is offenzive. I think you shoudl not use such ID here. Maybe someone from J A PA N get offended easy by it. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
26/11/2009
10:53 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Guys, you are wasting your time with Menta. I tried explaining this to him previously but he obviously can't understand anything that he reads and just wants to go around regurgitating what others are saying like a parrot. |
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By: enoughwealth
26/11/2009
10:49 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta - re your deflationary and bear-market viewpoint:
Generally speaking, when governments have previously gone through periods of high expenditure and deficit financing they have resorted to "printing money" to eventually pay for it. This tends to a) devalue the currency, and b) boost inflation.
To me this suggests we are more likely to experience a decade of HIGHER inflation in Oz and the US, not a period of deflation.
Deflation would require a massive melt-down of the real economy, which, with current signs of a modest global economic recovery and reasonable growth in Australia, seem highly unlikely.
Please explain why YOU think that "things will be different" this time around?
I believe the usual economic, stock market and real estate cycles will continue to be experienced. Your comments suggest that you think that anyone not expecting imminent stock market and real estate melt-down is a believer in never-ending booms/bubbles and that "this time it is different". Yet, to me, it seems that by constantly predicting imminent market collapse and deflation it is you that is proposing that "this time it will be different" and that normal economic cycles are about to come to a dramatic end... |
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By: s_step000
26/11/2009
10:43 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"The level of Australian household debt - the sum of mortgage debt and personal debt - is every bit as extreme as the USA's,"
This comment I believe is wrong. 1) You need to write exactly who is the borrower. 2) mortgage debt caused by overseas investor and emigrant bringing in skill and wealth are beneficial in the long term for OZ's economy.
As an economist Steve Keen should know that the origin of the debt does make a difference.
PASTING some part of Keen's comments without understanding the basic concept will result in different intepretation.:) |
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By: enoughwealth
26/11/2009
10:37 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta - Keen's own graph (http://www.debtdeflation .com/blogs/wp-content/upl oads/2007/03/US_v_Aus_HHD ebt2GDP.png) shows only that Australia's household debt:GDP ratio is now roughly the SAME as in the USA. The fact that it has been growing faster than in the USA since the 1980s simply means it was starting from a lower base.
You may not remember, but in the 1980s Australia was just starting to recover from a prolonged period of double digit inflation, so our interest rates were MUCH higher than in the US - hence a MUCH lower ratio of household debt:GDP could be sustained in Oz vs US due to the interest rate differential.
That differential has been dropping since the late 80s, as Australia got it's inflation back under control.
ALSO, Australia in the early 80s was just starting to loosen up regulations regarding personal borrowings (I remember margin loans, lines of credit etc. just starting to become available - up to the 1970s the only household debt in common use was the home loan!)
The graph also seems to be a couple of years out of date - it would be interesting to see what had happened since 2007...
Finally, if you look at the debt servicing cost (ie. interest being charged on the debt), the current household debt:GDP ratio means that the household debt servicing cost:GDP ratio would have stayed pretty constant from the 1980s to today.
Another example of selective data mining (polite speak for when an academic such as Keen resorts to "lies, damned lies, and statistics" to support a weak theory). |
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By: jaymarcel
26/11/2009
8:40 am Yahoo! Profile:
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You forget that Australia is still very much a growing country as opposed to the USA.
Growing debt is always linked with a growing country or business or even an individual. |
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By: mentawaisurf
25/11/2009
5:52 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"The level of Australian household debt - the sum of mortgage debt and personal debt - is every bit as extreme as the USA's," Professor Steve Keen commented. "And contrary to popular opinion, our debt binge dwarfs America's."
Australia's household debt to GDP ratio had been growing more than three times as rapidly as the USA's since 1990. The ratio had grown at an average of just over 2 per cent per annum in the USA. It has grown at over 6.8 per cent per annum here.
Keen hopes his outlook for a deflationary crash in Australia proves wrong, and so do I, but complacency could be our greatest enemy. |
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By: rstuarts2000
25/11/2009
3:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, it has always been over the coming weeks and months, but those weeks and months haven't come and just don't seem to be coming. The syncronised effort of governments around the globe to restimulate the global economy may well have succeeded in keeping the debt machine alive and well for another run. How long this run will last is anyones guess, but I would caution anyone holding thier breath!
Low end rental prices are continuing to rise to the point where purchasing is not much more. Do you keep renting? Alternativley you take out a big fat mortgauge and have faith that history shows the trend of our economy is inflationary. I think the real question is, will Mars bars be more expensive in 20 years time? If you think so, you can bet housing will be also, along with your average weekly pay packet. |
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