By: jaymarcel
24/06/2009
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| Great reply agingell1953, I agree & do your research in the area you are looking to buy, print off any you are interested in & do some comparisons, over several weeks you will see the changes & what is on offer, also you will see how long some properties are on the market for enabling you to put a realist offer on a possibly overpriced property. |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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"We currently have a false demand in this sector of the market as their deposit is being boosted by the 14 to 24k FHOG."
agingell1953,
I would agree with that assessment and I would also agree that prices are likely to fall, in the FHOG after the Federal subsidy is withdrawn. |
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By: agingell1953
23/06/2009
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Dear Bianca
If you have a large deposit, which in this day and age is 20% of the purchase price, you are better off to wait until all of the current first home buyers with deposits of 10 per cent or less have purchased their homes. We currently have a false demand in this sector of the market as their deposit is being boosted by the 14 to 24k FHOG. Anyone with this deposit is buying NOW so as to take advantage of the grant so after Dec 09 the demand in this sector of the property market will drop alarmingly. It is anticipated house prices will drop anywhere between 20 and 40k so with a 7k grant you will still be better off. It is likely to be felt in the second hand housing market more than the new housing market as builders will probably not be able to reduce costs that much. If you have a 10% deposit or less you are better off to buy now as lending criteria is likely to tighten to loans of amaximum 85% or 90% of the purchase price so even at reduced prices you will still not have a large enough deposit.
Angie |
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By: craigaharwood
23/06/2009
7:27 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Bianca,
To throw my comment in as well, perceptions has spot on.
No one knows your circumstances like you do. The task for you is to educate yourself, listen to and consider as many comments and opinions as you can and then make up your own mind.
If there is anything wrong with us as Australians is that we are too easy going and generally don't take the time to educate ourselves.
Its a blight on our education system that the most important things in life such as finance / money, relationships and working with our own subconscious minds are not taught in schools. For if we master these than all else is easy. |
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By: kingat33
23/06/2009
4:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Lasty lost it when she said your world bank is downgraded world growth and my world bank has upgraded china's growth. Gee, now there are two world bank! haha. |
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By: lasty49
23/06/2009
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Kingat33,
Believe in what makes you happy...
Your world bank is downgraded world growth.
My world bank has upgraded China's growth.
Now if you love gloomy figures.. you should be elated,over the moon,emo-ish.
I just dont want you to come back to me, sad, when things are all rosey..
I dont have a remedy for that. |
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By: perceptions_now
23/06/2009
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"When will be the best time to make the move for the first home buyer like me, Can I ask?
Bianca,
Yes, you may ask.
In fact, you just did!
Not sure who you have directed your question to, but I think I have the right answer.
The right time time will be, WHEN YOU THINK IT IS!
From your comments, you seem to have a fair idea of what is happening.
In any event, when it comes to the crunch, we all make our calls & then we wear the consequences.
Good luck & watch the Debt! |
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By: niuniu28au
23/06/2009
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Dear Guru
I am a first home buyer and have been following the property price for the last 6 months. I believe both vendor and buyser are out of mind now. So I have decided to hold the cash and wait, even I am desparate to have my own home. When will be the best time to make the move for the first home buyer like me, Can I ask?
Bianca |
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By: jaymarcel
23/06/2009
1:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Are we building houses at a rate of 1 every 1minute & 24secs |
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By: jaymarcel
23/06/2009
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Good call Craig, I think this topic shocks the most for me that we are talking 40 - 50% yet even in the USA & UK there have not been drops this great.
Are we the only country with the baby bonus as I think this is causing & will continue to cause great population changes in Australia, particularly the future of our property prices. |
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By: craigaharwood
23/06/2009
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Hi Jay,
I reckon panic might be long bow to draw. Isn't the puprpose of this thread to discuss and explore the ideas and concepts surrounding this topic?
Population modelling is relevant to the topic I think so I would say its good to elicit ideas and opinions so we can all consider.
Re our immigration I think thats a very valid point and one that Dent and others have made much of. In fact many think that because our demographic profile is the way it is Australia will be one of the best places to to be in a extended recession (avoiding the word depression). |
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By: jaymarcel
23/06/2009
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| Well afterall we are not in a recession here! |
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By: kingat33
23/06/2009
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| & The World Bank today said Brace for a long deep recession. Bet lasty gonna jump and says who's world bank and question their credential as well. Haha! |
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By: kingat33
23/06/2009
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| The nation that strives or the family that strives will be like the bible says borrow from none but lend to many. So which is a better role, to be a creditor or a debtor? I would prefer to harass debtors than be hounded by creditors, wouldn't you? |
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By: jaymarcel
23/06/2009
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So we now have people on here panicing about the population ageing then dropping.
People are now working much longer now than previous generations, some even choosing to continue to work at places like Bunnings as a preference to sitting at home.
As for a fall in population we have no need to worry here in Australia, I copied & pasted some info from gov website.
one birth every 1 minute and 47 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 47 seconds,
a net gain of one international migrant every 2 minutes and 23 seconds leading to an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 24 seconds |
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By: lasty49
23/06/2009
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Kingat33,
"Stay away from debts at all cost and live within your means."
Pretty hard to do if you dont have a job and need to pay rent and utility bills isnt it?
If you have a job and can service your debts ie like 95% of Australians who currently can, then you dont have a problem.
Even if you are debt free and lose your job, you arent out of the woods.
At least if you have a house you can get a tennant in. |
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By: kingat33
23/06/2009
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| Stay away from debts at all cost and live within your means. It is as simple as that. Days of property boom are over and now is the beginning of a long period of price correction. Nothing to fear if you are debt free though. |
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By: sly_guy_nsw
23/06/2009
8:04 am |
Message deleted. |
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By: japiersa3
23/06/2009
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| "First-time homebuyers spurring sales under $100,000" are the headlines we should be seeing here as well. Our Land prices are way way too HIGH and judging by that USA headline building costs must be as well. FULL STOP! something MUST happen sometime in the future. IMO. |
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By: ancientsong
23/06/2009
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just thougt I'd point out some things why I don't see prices rising dramatically in the coming years as some economists predicted..
In 2000 before the boom:
interest rates were around 6 to 7%
banks relaxed lending standards, (no doc, low doc loans, 100% finance loans)
house prices were under 4 times average income,
unemployment was around 6% and dropping, (it dropped to 4.5%)
After the boom 2009
interest rates are low, around 5% and showing signs of rising
banks tighting lending standards (demanding a 10% deposit of genuine savings)
house prices are 7 to 8 times income
unemployment is 5.7% and rising
we are facing a recession
Australians are in historic amounts of debt due to excessive borrowing
for housing, equity loans, personal loans etc. during the boom times...
so from this base, I don't see prices rising to higher mutiples of income when current multiples of 8 which are double the mutiple of pre boom prices are very sensitive to rate rises as we saw when rates went to 9% in 2007, when prices started to crack even before the mention of a recession |
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By: andrewjohnston41
22/06/2009
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HARRY DENT IS A SNAKE OIL SALESMAN.
Nobody should be taking this guy seriously. His claims of past successful predictions are just false. The guy makes so many, often contradictory predictions, that eventually he gets one right. His main objective is to make money from his book sales and subscriptions to his forecasting service. His forecasting service, by the way, is garbage. I can confidently predict that doing the opposite to whatever he recommends will be wildly successful strategy.
Property prices in most Australian cities will definitely not drop 40-50% because there is an acute shortage of housing in those cities. Dent is barking up the wrong tree. He is just another blow-in Yank, selling a different brand of snake oil. |
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By: perceptions_now
22/06/2009
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"Dent pointed out that China infact has a problem with aging population that is far greater than the west has. Ok it is 20 or so years before it is crunch time but the impact is huge and may be felt well before then."
craigaharwood,
From what I know, the Aging problem is fairly widespread, Globally, with some exceptions.
The biggest impact on China may still be a little further away, because of when they introduced their "pne child policy", but they also are already in the same spiral.
If this was 70 years (or so) ago, we could simply start another baby boom, but now that is impossible because we are already bumping into glass barriers everywhere.
The irresistable force (Population) is already crashing into the immoveable object (Peak Oil).
There is no room to move, continents are now colliding and the force of these impacts on the Global Economy & our Civilisation, will be a 9.9 quake! |
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By: craigaharwood
22/06/2009
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Perceptions, further on China, talking with harry Dent the other day reminded me of something so obvious that we almost don't see it.
Dent pointed out that China infact has a problem with aging population that is far greater than the west has. Ok it is 20 or so years before it is crunch time but the impact is huge and may be felt well before then.
In the 1970's china introduced the one child policy to control growth. Its a fact that many female babies were killed and still are. The result of this is that China too has an aging population and worse still little hope of encouraging population growth as it has a lack of females in the younger population. The reality is that if Chinese males want to have children they are going to have to import wives or leave china to find them.
For someone who charts economic impacts of demographics the way Harry Dent does this has a series of significant impacts that he seemed to believe will rule the Chinese miracle out in the mid term. |
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By: puyi
22/06/2009
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London Property Prices
The biggest boom in house prices was during the early seventies and coincided with very high general price inflation. The second boom occurred at and the third at the end of the eighties.
After the late eighties boom, property prices in the early nineties fell back sharply both in nominal and in real terms. Prices started to rise only towards the end of the nineties.
By 2000, real prices in London were still ten per cent below their eighties peak. |
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By: jrfrenchpolishing
22/06/2009
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| I always feel that with in this point of view that people miss the mark and over dramatize things. The simple reason for a fast growth in big business is there greed example: oil prices go down but the price at the pumps does not , plastic, thinners , hydrocarbons, diesel, many other items stay the same.But yet we still keep buying them because we have to and big business knows this.No amount of government investigation and bull will sort this out as the powers that be have no power over the massive corporations and huge pressure they place over them. they settle for making money in taxes and need to for our way of life to kept in check.Anarchy would prevail if the truth was known and that's why we are kept like sheep in a field .feed rubbish and hope the masses believe it.AND GUESS WHAT WE DO!!!!. I hope it all falls down and the people realize the junk that every single government and bank has feed us for the past year *** s home and finally makes humanity sit up and take responsibility for its own actions...... |
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