By: davo6253@ymail.com
13/08/2009
8:23 am Yahoo! Profile:
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My thoughts atm are that it will be at some point next year when rates are moving up, the catalyst being another bank collapse in europe or similar. If that doesn't happen another issue is the option arms loans which are sounding just as risky as sub prime mortgages. That in combination with the massive amount of gov't debt which will be flooding the debt markets all amount to a significant risk to our banks ability to lend, which even reduced a small amount will have an impact on prices.
Cheers
David |
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By: jaymarcel
13/08/2009
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As you say davo when will the credit crunch affect Australia, or even if. The average Australian still has yet to see any change in their lifestyle from the credit crunch & are already now seeing a turn around looks like we missed out on it this time around, I now wonder when the next one is coming as its gonna be a big one (perhaps 10 years).
We've been looking at buying a place in Malaysia (KL) for a while now & was hoping to buy once the prices have dropped due to the crisis but like Oz, Malaysia have done reasonably well out of this crisis. And like all countries that have bypassed this crisis house prices have been maintained. |
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By: economicdisasterlooms
13/08/2009
5:11 am |
Message deleted. |
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By: davo6253@ymail.com
12/08/2009
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I assume you mean 2400 and that equals 28.8k a year which makes less than 7 times annual income which is about where Australia is at. Anyway I don't see how a small economy like Malaysia has any impact on Australia whatsoever.
My personal opinion is that Australia's property may hold on for a while longer, basically I view it is like a ponzi scheme, FHB pay more to previous FHB who then pay more still to move into larger homes and so on. This will only stop when the credit system in Australia starts to falter, i.e. banks really need 20% deposit (or more) to approve any loan. This credit tightening will directly affect housing prices and combined with a strong AUD there will be reduced domestic and international demand for aussie property thus large falls could come. The real question is when will the credit crunch affect Aus?
Cheers,
David |
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By: jkueh
12/08/2009
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| I have seen quite a lot of demand for house around where i invest in Parkwood , WA. House in WA are come with big block of land , double brick , good quality with ample space and park . Therefore any price range from 300-500 with a good location definitely will attract buyer since house hasnt increase last 2 years. I will continue my search for more property within the affordable range. If you think Australia property is unaffordable, check out Malaysia where the average income is 24000 per month and the average home is 200k . even it is more than 10 times but the price still keep increasing cos inflation keep coming in. Lesson I have learn , Buy when you can not when the price is down. |
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By: vinnyboy1976
11/08/2009
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Almurrie,
Adding on to your points. Negative gear is a tool for the ATO and government, not so much benefit to the investor.
1. If an investor buy an investment property, it most likely negatively geared (there are some people buy an old house and create a second job (renovation) to them self which most people like my self are not good at except for Jay) for 10 or 20 years because the rent is high enough to offset all cost. This will force the poor investor not to give up job or join the unemployment queue or centerlink. You are automatically binding to a job for the next 10 or 20 years.
2. The investor income is low at the moment so claiming deduction will be on the lower tax bracket comparing to the capital gain that the investor pay in 10 or 20 years will be most likely maximum tax rate. If the deduction involves in capital (building) depreciation, it will make the buying cost lower so the capital gain the future is higher so it is a delay tax paying effect.
3. Sorry to say this, but this is a very high divorce rate country. Meaning, NOT much investor will hold their investment house selling until 65 to minimize capital gain tax.
4. If the investors can buy a house for $400k, why would they want to pay it for $500k or more just to keep the renter away from buying the house? What's benefit to the investor for doing like this? |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
10/08/2009
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Do any of you understand what NEGATIVE gearing is? An investor is LOSING money to buy a house. If rents are still too low then this is what happens, you lose money. In the past this was countered by Capital Gain. So no Capital Gain and rents less than costs equals investors leaving the market, or not entering. This is the big competition for houses? People making a loss? Get over it guys, investors are HELPING renters to live on lower costs than a mortgage and owning, and you want to take this away?
Like I said before, who is going to pay to house the homeless? You and me through higher taxation. I say increase the deductions and get MORE investors into housing. It is a lot cheaper in the end.
Al |
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By: wanderpets
10/08/2009
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i too feel that investors are pushing up house prices and pushing home buyers (the ones that actually NEED a home) out of the market.
i think investing in commercial property would be a much sounder option for people wanting to invest and negative gear and leave the homes availabe to people to buy rather than excusing it with 'if investors didn't buy houses where would people live' doh... they'd live in houses they will actually own one day and leave to their children rather than throwing away their money on rent. |
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By: tbk3931
10/08/2009
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| Australia takes in 80,000 Immigrants each year and that translates to how many housing needs? work it out and most of them will settle in the metropolitan cities. What about the student population that keeps rental properties in demand. The negative gearing thing with property investment has to be removed to help ease the housing price rises. Those who are buying investment properties for negative gearing are competing with first home owners for the same pool of houses. Do the Federal government work out these figures or not. Giving grants are just throwing money to the vendors (developers alike). Its priced into the value of the house. Who wants to be the "unpopular" government to remove the negative gearing? Those in authority also have a hand in it(ie.having negative geared investment property). We need a strong handed government to fix this or else the housing issue will spiral out of control and keep alot of those new entrants out of the game. |
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By: perceptions_now
10/08/2009
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Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition
Conclusion: On the Precipice of a New Era
Our analysis depicts a coming generational transition in the housing market that will upset the historic balance of buyers and sellers. Residents in most states are net buyers of homes well into their 50s. The resulting upward pressure on demand by the large baby boom generation will soon peak, and after age 70 they will be net sellers in all except three states. Mankiw and Weil (1989) may have miscalculated the timing of decline, predicting its beginning 20 years or more prematurely, but the baby boomers will finally start retiring from the housing market. Their demand for housing will begin to contract, and then will decline at an accelerating rate. Boomers will dominate the housing market, as they have through their entire adult lives, when the ratio of seniors to working-age adults soars by 67% in the next two decades. This tilt toward age groups that are net sellers of housing is historically unprecedented, and it challenges planners to foresee and forestall adverse impacts.
Link -
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a 789053981&fulltext=713240 928
=============
Not sure about planners, but the bankers have missed the transition start! |
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By: craigaharwood
10/08/2009
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Jay,
Your right about the large areas of investment properties on the gold coast that are not viable in the long term but I have to tell you i reckon there is something like 5 to8 thousand properties in this area that would fit into that category.
Not on the edge of industrial areas as you may think but in very good suburbs with good facilities etc. SE Qld is our own USA disaster waiting to hapen just like it has been in every economic cycle, just that this time its bigger and not just a couple of high rise buildings near the beach but entire suburbs of 4 bedroom houses as well.
And I have to add the sprukers are still at it saying this recovery in house prices is the start of the new boom - Houses go up 10 % a year - I kid you not. |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
10/08/2009
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You have no idea how much it will cost the government ie you and me, to provide accomodation for the homeless. If investors pull out and there are no rentals available, except in places where no one wants to be, and no one can afford to buy - where are people going to live? In caravan parks? The back of cars? I think you have to look at the big picture. If young people have a home, there is a big incentive to keep it and work hard. If they don't, then you have a bunch of bums theiving and living out of their clapped out van. Sounds possible? Social cost has to be factored in when talking about FHBG. They are not owners until after they get the grant so really they are BUYERS.
My heart bleeds for the ambitious middle aged trying to live their dream, but I doubt many will give sympathy to a millionaire who lost a job, and now cry poor. Stockmarket=racetrack, companies go broke. You lose the lot. At least you have half still of the house, they don't go broke, unless you owe the bank millions. But that would just be too stupid and greedy.
Very few of the sales are in this high million plus bracket, most are of ordinary houses. I will concede the top end is hurting, but the low and middle priced are going up because people still need somewhere to live, even if they have to share..
Life is actually not just about money. Look at it as a life lesson, maybe you need to focus on your spirituality in the latter part of your life, and realise that you can't take any of it with you when you depart this realm.
Al |
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By: southernrivergreyhounds
10/08/2009
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| the property markets problems are caused by a shortsighted kevin rudd giving first homebuyers free grants to prop up the property sector with a buy now or miss out approach all this has dson is to push bottom end property prices to surge way above where they should be when this sillyness ends properties in australia will fall to their real levels pushed by true market forces maybe first homebuyers grants should only consist of stamp duty and fees paid by the goverment with the buyer having to provide 5 % deposit surely this is a safe approach |
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By: mentawaisurf
10/08/2009
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It seems you're not alone jay :)
While a seemingly stabilizing unemployment rate drew calls that 'the worst is over' from an increasing herd of bulls, you only need to read beneath the headlines for the real story.
The trend towards increased part-time, casual and contract work, with a reduction in work hours and job security, should not support confidence in Australia's consumer driven economy. This is further reflected in weaker retail sales and plummeting imports which helped provide the illusion of a trade surplus (and was the only reason that Australia did not record a technical recession).
In Australia if you work just one hour a week you are clasified as 'employed'. This marked shift in the employment landscape is a worrying trend, especially given the record level of private debt.
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/blog.aspx?blogentryid= 444452&showcomments=true |
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By: jaymarcel
10/08/2009
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| I will admit to being a rose coloured glasses kinda guy |
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By: mentawaisurf
10/08/2009
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And that's precisely why I included the link to the article for everyone to read for themselves. That article speaks for itself but it's up to individuals to interpret the artcile as they see it through their own eyes, whether they're wearing rose coloured glasses or not;
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=848005 |
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By: pwaldons
10/08/2009
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Jaymarcel, I'm pleased posters like yourself are taking notice of cut and paste news that has been manipulated or edited to more adequately frame a perspective.
As I and others have stated previously, there are some on this board who continue to be guilty of that sin (including the poster you pointed out who repeatedly does so).
It is very difficult to have an intelligent and rational debate on the state of the economy when some posters propagandize material and have the nerve to become indignant when they are called on it.
Good on you Jaymarcel. |
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By: jaymarcel
10/08/2009
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Australian house prices are overvalued by up to 20 percent and that low rates, government subsidies and ongoing strong immigration will continue to push house prices higher.
Just thought I would copy & paste the rest of the article since you forgot to mention that they say property prices will go higher.
But thanks for the link menta. |
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By: mentawaisurf
10/08/2009
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Property bubble fears grow as IMF says houses overvalued
Australian house prices are overvalued by around 20 percent and the size of the average mortgage has reached an all time high, fuelling fears of a property bubble.
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=848005 |
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By: jaymarcel
10/08/2009
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Who rents a house out & offers vouchers with it? Sounds like a scam, there is a section between brisbane & the gold coast that had a mass of cheap unlivable investment properties plonked there that they couldn't even rent out 2 years ago when the market was tight. Most properties that are built purely for the rental market are cr@p houses due to the cost cutting involved in the building, they are usually in the middle of industrial areas too.
A mate of mine bought one (off-plan) during the boom (2006) & has been trying to sell it since as once the rental guarentee ran out he could find a new tenant(What a fool, lesson learnt there). |
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By: craigaharwood
10/08/2009
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Just an interesting point, around SE Qld and particularly Nth Gold coast and outer bris where there are large suburbs of maninly investment properties we have seen rents drop by 10 - 12% in the last two months.
Its now easy to rent a property and get 4 weeks free rent plus in some cases $500.00 travel vouchers or at hope island $1,000 voucher to spen in loacl rest./taverns. Almost starting to feel like the Gold Coast of old. |
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By: japiersa3
10/08/2009
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Yes, similar position to you... Aus shows little mercy to the >50's - doesn't matter about qualifications there will be a student (or ex) who will be happy to claim PR and work for a lot less than you (not that the > 50's are given an option to choose) and most positions seem to be funneled through employment agents and we can be sure that they want to pocket as much as possible in commissions - worse only a few of them are classified as preferred to supply applicants to certain institutions. In my case it means that I must seriously consider moving OS to be able to retain my savings as the rental situation here means that as an over 50 I can only find work which hardly covers rental... and it's unlikely that I will take the chance on buying a house which I believe is close to 2X real value.
How I wish I'd gone into business when younger then I may have stood a chance. |
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By: jaymarcel
10/08/2009
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munhoi, you need to speak to dishonnz, he's living the simple life which right now sounds perfect for you.
My advice would be to sell everything you own, & I mean everything, start completely from scratch.
Buy a piece of land ($100,000 tops) out in a nice little country town put a cheap accommodation on it, either a caravan or old second hand colonial on stumps ($100,000 tops).
Take 6 to 12 months timeout & then re-evaluate.
Oh when I said sell everything you need transport so either keep the car or swap it for something cheaper.
Good luck on making your tough descisions. |
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By: munhoi
10/08/2009
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do people agree I should short sale my house ( bite the bullet - get an apt like in S.F. get a roomate to save money ) and take the hit now and rebuild my life again.
or should I commute or worst pay a $ 4,500 mortgage rent in S.f. vs commute and never make it out of the hole I am in.
moving with stuff in a 6 bedroom 4 1/2 bath house to a apt sharing is a big change - my mind is suffering from the trauma of thinking about life over 5o in despair - unless I win the Lotto - thats how desperate Ive gotten - buying lotto tickets. |
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By: munhoi
10/08/2009
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i.e. a college student will massive student loans is better off then me now.
instead of retirement - I got huge debts to pay off , no house soon and probably move back to the inner city from suburbia and grind it out in the rat race at over 50 when I thought I was finally going to enjoy life - and yeah my girlfriend left me too - so the pain is even that worse |
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