By: ang101000
Yesterday (12:48 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Jay,
I am planning to rent in a very cheap suburb for the time being.
In regards to costs and market competition; I don't mind the opportunity cost involved in moving to an other property that has the prospect of increased capital gains (remember this is my future home, no capital gains tax.) |
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By: lasty49
Yesterday (12:46 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
The UK is worse than the US.
They have a bigger problem. Racial tensions are mounting.
Brits want their jobs back and the right wing party (BNP) is growing in numbers to force out the foreigners.
Olympic games will be interesting in 2012..Events not to go to would be the hammer and the Javelin throwing. |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (12:42 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hi ang, one flaw in c), you will be buying back at a higher price in a more competetive market & even possibly at the peak of pricing. You will have to pay stamp duty + the other extras (moving costs, solicitor fees, building & pest inpection) when buying back in, then there is the cost of renting as you still have to live somewhere. |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (12:36 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hi Menta, At the end of your last post you say we fall for it every time but house prices have continued to go up so they are correct. The ones that have missed out are the ones that listened to the talk of the last 10 years from people talking of a house price crash & have fallen for the 'they have to crash' yet for the last 10 years they have gone up & left behind a large generation that are in their 30's still living with mum & dad, at some point they will have to move out & buy or rent on their own & accept the cost of property for what it is. |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (12:36 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
I have decided (seriously) to sell my home in February. Don't panic, it is an each way bet;
a) prices fall - good, I have my cash,
b) prices stagnant - good, I can buy back anytime
c) prices increase - good, I can reinvest in the growing market.
I really need a change of place. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
Yesterday (12:33 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, you seem to have changed your tune. No longer Keen is God and we will drop 40%? Now you are willing to accept any reduction in price as a win?
"The only question is by how much?"
The biggest thing you had going against you was the flawed assumptions that certain variables would remain constant.
ie price to income has TWO variables
affordability has an additional variable of interest
Algebra might not have been fun but it really is useful. ;) |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (12:29 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hi rstuarts, it appears anna bligh may have the right idea (of enticing people further north of brisbane) but is going the wrong way about it, $3000? |
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By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (12:26 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Mortgage rates up ahead of 'double dip'
UK lenders raise mortgage costs amid property fears;
Government-backed banks raised mortgage rates and introduced stricter lending criteria last week amid concerns that this year's house-price recovery is not sustainable.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_an d_mortgages/article6926451.ece
US Housing Bust's Last Chapter: 2010 And 2011 Face Big Resets In Alt-A And Option ARM Loans
http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2009/11/06/the -us-housing-bust-scary-movie-2011/?ref=patrick.net
Yes, Australia's housing bubble survived the initial phase of the global deflation in property. In fact our bubble swelled to even greater record price levels (on the back of new record levels of household debt and 'free' money provided by our government in the form of the FHOB).
But will we survive the next more sever phase of the global delfation in property? Not likely. Yes, Australian house prices will fall. The only question is by how much? Easy, to a sustainable level (back to the historical average of about 3.5 times median income - or a median house price of about $200,000). Currently we are running at well over double the long-term average. It may take another 5 years or so to return to the mean, but it will happen.
During every housing peak over history we get the same arguments by the same people who try to rationalize over-priced housing (eg. housing shortages, population growth, inflationary expectations etc. etc..) The rhetoric is always the same, "we can't have a housing crash because it's 'different' this time", and the favourite mantra of the vested-interests, "now is the time to buy". And we seem to fall for it every time. |
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By: enoughwealth
Yesterday (12:18 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, by 31/12/09 you expect "...the resumption of the underlying bear-market trend will be obvious to everyone by then"? Exactly what ASX200 level would make a bear-market trend "obvious"? We are currently sitting close to the market high point for the past couple of years, and a 10%-15% "correction" is normal in a bull-market trend.
So, exactly how much below current levels does the market have to drop in the next 25 trading days to make a new bear-market trend "obvious"?
You seem to have already conceeded the ASX200 won't drop to your previous year-end prediction ;) |
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By: rstuarts2000
Yesterday (11:59 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Average wage male approc 70k, and female approx 55k, thats 125k combined. I think these figure ring pretty true. I also know that there are lots of young people on combined incomes well over the 150k mark. I am torn between thinking housing is cheap, and housing is overpriced! I think there has been a wage division developing in our country for decades and we are now starting to see the gap between the haves and have nots, unfortunatley in housing affordability (or unaffordability for some). If Australia wants to see the outcome of this kind of division go for a holiday to the USA. |
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By: pmt_wilson
Yesterday (11:59 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| At the melt of a previous Ice Age the Ice over Nth US slipped into the Atlantic this changed the salinity levels and the Guf Stream stopped dead. If Greensland ice slips in the same could happen.This is ad news for the world as it goes everywhere! |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
Yesterday (11:24 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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It sort of makes you wonder how all these balances have just "happened" to protect the Earth from flying into a Venus scenario, ie all the water gone and massive overheating. Magnetic fields (a u r o r a), the bombardment of water comets (Utnapishtim/Noah Flood) replenishing the earth's water lost to space, the undersea canyon that can quickly cut off the cold saline flow from the North, stopping the Gulf stream. 2012 could bring a lot more than a bit of economic turmoil.
Al |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (10:58 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hi Almurrie, And the problem is? |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
Yesterday (10:52 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Mitch Batros and his Solar Rain theories have lately become main stream. This explains why the sun's corona is so much hotter than it should be. Apparently condensing matter falling back to the sun from sun spot ejections create a lot more energy than expected. The new cycle is about to begin with dire consequences for mankind. Expect massive power failures as transformers everywhere blow up from magnetic surges. Also temperatures WILL be going up even more, as the earth balancing act fails to cool any more. Just because CO2 is not the main cause of WARMING (not the oil companies invention "climate change") doesn't mean we can ignore it. Even more emphasis needs to be made on methane and if the tundra releases all the trapped frozen methane we could be staring down the barrel of a global 5 degrees increase. This would melt Greenland Icefields, release fresh water and in less than a year bring on the start of a Northern Hemisphere ICE AGE by stopping the Gulf Stream. Irish research has shown this happening fast in the past.
Al |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (10:28 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty,
Agree with you, we need more convincing of the benefits of the ETA to the economy and environment.
It is time to admit that scientists don't know and therefor can not predict the changes (with any accuracy) to the climate. |
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By: lasty49
Yesterday (8:55 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Angelajacab,
Isnt it frightening how someone can invent a market on hot air?
Rudd will be in for a shock once the punters get hold of his ETS scheme.
He doesnt know what he is in for.
Im a skeptic about the whole thing.
Derivatives markets play their part in other markets but aiming it at the utilities which will affect pensioners and the like is WRONG. |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (7:45 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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creative, So in LA just before the property collapse you had a supply/demand issue in LA?
I know for a fact LA has had an oversupply of houses for many years, it's a totally different situation over there to what we have here, the only way property will fall here in Oz is if unemployment hits 10% (official figures).
People in the USA don't realise how big headed they are even when their country is falling apart & other countries continue to thrive.
At some point they will have to accept that USA is not No.1 anymore & the rest of the world doesn't care, maybe they'll realise when things stop being linked to the US$ & we have our clothing & furniture made there at a well below minimum wage cost.
Before you go saying a whole nation doesn't have a clue pull your head out the sand & look at every single countries current situation with a more open mind than USA is best & thinking the world can't survive without it. We are doing just fine thanks. |
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By: creativeactorslab
Yesterday (1:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| people in Australia still have no clue how bad thing really are in the US. It hasn't even come close here. The Housing market there tanked big time- it will take years to recover. The ecenomy in Australia is still very strong compared to most other courntries- I strongly believe that the Oz housing market is overdue for a correction. I hear the same kind of talk here as I did in LA before the market lost around 40%- |
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By: angelajacab
2 days ago (Tuesday, 11:56 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Jade and Lasty,
When you have finished your forecasting exercise for the market level (in 10-100 years time?) using your favorite scientific method (astrology, darts, charts, rational/ irrational emotions, expectations, behaviours, etc) and are bored, have a look at this link (nothing to do with the share market, it is to do with carbon market);
polite version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgaeyMa3jyU
angry scientist version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature =channel
Sorry, they haven't made a 'really mad' version... However if you want more see article (click on the links in text)
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5 559
Given that we all be investing (via higher taxes) to save the world from 'global warming/cooling', it is a good time to look at the science (one armed view) as presented by Professor Bob Carter.
In regards to the share market, I heard some rumors that hedge funds are moving from Asia (taking profits) to USA and Europe. Who knows and who cares... |
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By: jadeshangrila
2 days ago (Tuesday, 7:16 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, the rise has tapered off and the big money has already been made. I have sold out of most sectors except the energy, very recently. My thought is that the crude prices are getting uncomfortably high and that yields and PEs are getting close to valuation. It is time to move to safer waters. I take have a very keen interest in classic houses and that has been my focus recently. |
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By: mentawaisurf
2 days ago (Tuesday, 7:02 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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And after viewing the video take a look at this;
The S&P is currently about 1,100: a rally of about 5.5% since late August vs. a 56% rally in the preceding five months.
My point? The time to get really excited about this rally was probably back in March. Investors who waited until the economy improved enough to give them confidence to buy stocks again did so just as the rally slowed to a virtual halt. So what's next for the stock market?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/20 09/11/20/SP-Much-Ado-About-57-Points.aspx |
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By: jadeshangrila
2 days ago (Tuesday, 7:01 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, 2010 will be a interesting year. I suspect the ASX will catch up the lost ground, with the Dow in the first 3 months of that year than you will see a spike in crude prices and a further plunge in the USD which will stroke inflation in the USA and we will get a severe correction . |
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By: mentawaisurf
2 days ago (Tuesday, 6:41 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Jade, actually Elliott Wave forecasted that 2010 will be the BIG down year in financial markets (all asset classes) as the deflation intensifies.
But just the initial leg down of this larger bear-market decline would see a rapid test of the March lows in stock indexes. Whether this trend resumes now or in early 2010 it should become apparent soon enough.
For more take a look at this interview with Robert Prechter;
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/prechter-bob-d epew-kevin-bears-elliott-wave-international/index/ a/25382 |
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By: jadeshangrila
2 days ago (Tuesday, 5:43 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, the purpose of this bet was to see the accuracy of forecast base on various methods. Yours would obviously be the elliote wave which you are a fan of. Mine will be based on our original thought. We have a policy not follow prophets or the media or analysis from any other investment funds or persons. One can never be a sucessful trader trying to follow someone else's foot steps. There is a difference between a learned person and a intelligent person. One can recite a whole text while the other invent his own. The prove is in the winnings. |
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By: mentawaisurf
2 days ago (Tuesday, 4:38 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Well, whether my ASX200 forecast of 3120 by years end is reached or not, I believe the resumption of the underlying bear-market trend will be obvious to everyone by then. And in doing so my cautionary tone will be vindicated so that my presence is no longer required. For my sole aim was to counter the consensus hype, hysteria, denial and wishful thinking of the pundits who proclaim to be experts and the financial media who condition our collective beliefs.
That being the case, my work here will be done. |
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