By: lasty49
14/09/2009
12:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"33% of postcodes in Australia have fallen into the high-risk category (an increase of 30% on last year). Of the 50 most financially stressed suburbs, 29 are in the first-home buyers belt."
Once again a misleading statement.
It doesnt mean that 100% of homeowners of 33% of postcodes are at risk.
It means that "some" people of those 33% postcodes.
Its the spin from Dumb and Sadstreet that grabs headlines |
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By: lasty49
14/09/2009
12:45 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"33% of postcodes in Australia have fallen into the high-risk category (an increase of 30% on last year). Of the 50 most financially stressed suburbs, 29 are in the first-home buyers belt."
Great it will give those people who are waiting in the wings a chance to buy as with the latest figures out they arent building enough to keep up with the demand. |
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By: hdmausguy
14/09/2009
12:32 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| correction - the second last sentence should read propery investors not property owners. |
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By: hdmausguy
14/09/2009
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| Re: the header House prices down 40% - 50%. For this to occur would it not need an economic event that has not occurred in the post WW2 period(Last 65 years). I only have a few details of circumstances of the great depression (1929) & WW2 period. From what relatives who lived through those times told me was that not many people owned a home,or had a mortgage. The majority of people rented. A large number of people feared being in debt to the bank.In the Gt. Depression period I don,t know how house prices fared. In the 1940's, Sydney's Harbour area suburbs, I was told you could have bought property for a song. This was after some midget J.A.P. subs attacked in Sydney Harbour. Some shelling was done near Bondi. Houses were virtually unsaleable there with invasion fears to the fore. In 2009 and beyond would unemployment need to rise to 20% or 25% before the large number of bank forclosure sales would effect prices? THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THE WORLD ECONOMY OUTCOME - ONE GROUP VOTES FOR RECOVERY. ANOTHER GROUP VOTES FOR A WORSENING RECESSION(the magnitude of world debt has reached unrepayable levels. Yesterday I watched a video economic speech by Bill Clinton where he was talking in Billions with concern, a few presidents on and they're talking in trillions of dollars. This morning I now see references to quadtrillions of dollars? This may be 1,000 TRILLION DOLLARS, like how much money can the world be really worth? I read that if you spent $1 every second for 32,000 years = $1 Trillion.For me it's so difficult to relate to these amounts of $$$$$). For people who owned their home and were selling to buy elsewhere generally the price impact may be neutral? For those who still managed to keep their job but still had some way to go on their mortgage would find it tough going? What would be the response of the banks to mortgage holders and property owners who found themselves going from % net asset holders to % net debt holders. Market termoil would be an understatement. |
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By: mentawaisurf
14/09/2009
11:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Despite signs the economy is bouncing back, one-third of the country is at risk of mortgage default according to a survey by Dunn & Bradstreet;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/stor y/0,,26036211-25658,00.html?from=public_rss
33% of postcodes in Australia have fallen into the high-risk category (an increase of 30% on last year). Of the 50 most financially stressed suburbs, 29 are in the first-home buyers belt. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
14/09/2009
9:32 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"In reality, the vendor simply increases the asking price by the same amount offered by the government incentive..
....
Instead. THINK! Try to open your eyes and see the BIG picture!"
Good idea, but lets look at some facts before we try to "think"
"Part of the current debate on housing affordability has focused on the recent decline in the proportion of first home buyers in the owner-occupier housing finance market (excluding refinancing), from a peak of around 33 per cent two years ago to 19 per cent currently"
This is from 2003 so feel free to provide more up to date figures if you find them. Note these are only owner occupier also so include investors and the percentage is even lower.
Now let's do the thinking .....
Non first home buyers will cop an increase in contract price because a small proportion of the market have a grant available? Think again ...... |
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By: rodneysaviour2
13/09/2009
7:04 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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PROPERTY - A good time to make a purchase?
Oh my goodness. How can some people be so irresponsible as to suggest that in light of the governments recent extension of the First Time Buyers Property Purchase Stimuls Measure .. Now is a great time to BUY a property?
In reality, the vendor simply increases the asking price by the same amount offered by the government incentive..
This stimulus is designed to keep the money flowing. It is not designed to helt the individual house purchaser.
My felloow citizens. BEWARE the temptation of this stimulus!!
Instead. THINK! Try to open your eyes and see the BIG picture!
BUY PROPERTY. Ha!! You`ll most probably lose more than just a few bucks if you do!
In time the market shall naturally find its own level, a level far below the inflated values we see out there at present.
And what would happen should you like many others recently) lose your job..?
With little prospect for gaining employment, (or more importantly the same amount of regular income) again anytime soon where you currently reside, you will be faced with the prospect of selling the property at a great loss, (due to the glut of property now on the market and the fall in real value) or having it reposessed by the bank and having to move elswhere.
Who is not concerned now for their own financial future?
Are not each of us now seeing that the situation is becoming more and more desperate each and evry day?
An extension of the government property purchase stimulus measures is a BIG mistake. People who would otherwise not be drawn so deeply into the economic disaster which is so rapidly unfolding shall now find themselves deeply in debt, ownin properties which shall have a value far less than the purchase price which they paid.
It is nothing less than irresponsible to encourage people to purchase property at a time such as this.
AUSTRALIA - ECONOMIC DISASTER LOOMS
The BLOG: AUSTRALIA - ECONOMIC DISASTER LOOMS & steve_b_wilson`s ef ... |
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By: rodneysaviour2
13/09/2009
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fire.fly_au, (otherwise known as "the HECKLER" on another BLOG).
WE all know who the REAL firefly is and wish that HIS light burn brightly for ever more.
So do put a cork in it TROLL FAKE firefly!
You are just wasting your time in a very childish manner. |
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By: fire.fly_au
12/09/2009
9:25 pm |
Message deleted. |
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By: jaymarcel
10/09/2009
11:49 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Your not wrong there ang, she used to have businesses in Malaysia but sold them when she emmigrated to the UK.
Both her parents were in gov during the 80's & early 90's before retiring & starting their own businesses too. |
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By: thismessbelongshere
10/09/2009
11:32 am |
Message deleted. |
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By: ang101000
10/09/2009
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Jay,
you are lucky to have a Malaysian girlfriend. I think, there are some very beautiful girls over there (and now here too).
If you thinking to establish a business in Malaysia you will need influential local friends. There is no other way of succeeding, you will need a local partner with good connections.
In regards to housing; there are beautiful developments in some of the island areas of the mainland, on the water and **** amenities. |
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By: jaymarcel
10/09/2009
10:36 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| I agree with you definately, my girlfriend is bumi-putra. |
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By: ang101000
10/09/2009
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Jay,
For all the 3xD jobs there is an army of Indonesian workers, the natives are not willing to do. See how much they get paid.
You know the Asian way of managing; kick-down and lick-up, that is true in Malaysia too. The average Malay is much better off today than he/she was even 10 years ago. I don't mean just the bumi-putra. |
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By: jaymarcel
10/09/2009
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| I was unaware of the superannuation introduction, it's starting to sound like they are ahead of the USA now you list the changes made. Must be one of the few countries left with no unemployment benefit, I believe there unemployment rate is around the 4% area. |
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By: ang101000
10/09/2009
9:47 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Mate,
I also stayed in KL in a million $$ property for a few days, so I can't say that there is no "good life". It is a bit similar to Oz, if you earn an average wage there is no chance in hell that you can afford ever to live in Kirribilly! On the other hand, it is quite attainable to buy a run-down unit in the slam areas of the town even if you are just an average worker, and it has electricity and running water(:.
Now, if you think that is not progress, think again. Twenty years ago most small populated areas did not have electricity or water, today everyone does. It all happened under Mahathir. He made schooling compulsory and implemented some social policies such as health care and even implemented superannuation... |
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By: jaymarcel
10/09/2009
6:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang, Good to hear you enjoyed your time in Malaysia, so from what you experienced would you have said property was on par in Malaysia to Australia when it comes to affordability or worse.
I have lived in KL, Kulim & Alor Setar all offer very different lifestyles & all have humidity issues which make it unliveable for me long term. |
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By: ang101000
9/09/2009
9:34 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Jay,
My experience in Malaysia (around 5 years ago) was quite positive. I lived in Sabah state, in Lahad Datu for about 4 years.
Perhaps the small-town life is different from living in KL.
Generally speaking, staple food price was regulated by government (cheap), petrol and gold(?) was also regulated. Health insurance was free and provided by the employer, so was housing and some schooling for the kids too. Of course, I don't mean the expatriate employees! Wages were low, a starting engineer at the time earned about 2300 RM. An engineer with a bit of experience earned quite a bit more and an engineering manager had about RM5000-6000 salary. The Malaysian made Proton car (can't recall the model) was about RM10,000. A small, very basic apartment was priced about RM 120,000.
Life wasn't meant to be easy (:
At least, the author's student daughter will have a better life. Hope, she also enjoys a government & company sponsorship for her university studies in Australia. |
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By: miketraner
9/09/2009
3:56 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| forgot to mention to we have offered $470K AUD. Looks like our offer will pull it in. |
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By: miketraner
9/09/2009
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Hello all. From Devonport Tas but have been living in Canada for the past three years teaching at a Uni in the capital. Am interested in the conversation on this thread (makes me homesick, everyone talking about house prices). Very few people around here discuss the price of homes, all will consider it quite rude if you do. Prices here are much cheaper than Oz, even Tassie. Here is what my wife and I are considering buying. It's in the country but only 30 min drive on the highway from where I teach.
http://www.c21macintyre.com/pgePhotoBrowser.aspx?L ang=en&ID=1470
You'll have to close all the gaps of course. You might be interested in comparing it to what is currently available for the price in Oz, especially now that the AUD is so strong. |
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By: jaymarcel
9/09/2009
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| Yeah I'm with you there Vinny I would only advice negative gearing to top tax bracket earners & only pay off the debt when you stop earning & make them positive geared to retire on. |
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By: vinnyboy1976
9/09/2009
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ecchi,
You are talking about capital depreciation like buildings. Negative gearing is where you earn lower income and the ato is happy to pay you back at the same you have to lower the capital cost. 10 years later, you might be on a higher tax bracket due to experience or promotion and the capital gain might be bigger because you have reduce your capital cost (ie the buying cost or the price you pay for the property). Therefore, will you end up paying 46% for the gain.
Therefore, too me, negative gearing is kind of a tool advantage to the ATO and centerlink unless you can wait not to sell property until 65 or not get divorce before 65 which is very tough in this country. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
9/09/2009
12:07 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Do any of you understand what NEGATIVE gearing is? An investor is LOSING money to buy a house."
Negative gearing done correctly does not require a negative cash flow. Special building write off for houses built after 1984 is a non cash deduction. |
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By: hdmausguy
9/09/2009
11:59 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| The only way house values in Australia would take such a massive fall is for current unemployment to substantially increase and for interest rates to rocket up. The market would then have to be flooded with homes from defaulters just like in the USA now. Remember when Keating & Hawke were in power and interest rates were 17%? While things are good at the moment here the big wheel is turning very slowly. There's a lot more to unfold this year and the next few years. Things like the 1st home owners grant phasing out at the end of this year. Aussie Home Loans boss reckons there'll be an easing of property values in 2010 because of that. The US financial markets are said to still have a lot of massive problems yet to unfold. Defaults are predicted in the commercial property market,the home loan & credit market and the financial derivatives market where they're talking about $200 trillion dollars being on the brink. Many an.alysts are saying this next meltdown will dwarf last years plunge. USA is very sick with unemployment increasing(but slowing the spin doctors say) I saw a better gauge on this this morning where the average weekly earnings for people is a lot less than normal. This is due to reduced hours. Many govt. departments,state and local are broke. Some close up for a day or so each week. Many workers have had to go on 2 week unpaid leave furloughs or various regular unpaid days off. The value of the USD is under contant pressure. Worldwide countries are reducing their holdings of USD. Large of holdings of gold held in vaults in London & USA are being physically taken to the countries that own it. Then there's the inevitable aftemath of the worldwide stimuli of massive inflation. At the end of the day we are all going to pay for it even here in Aust. Even if it takes 5 - 10 years to play out it will still hit people on a 25 - 30 year mortgage. Remember it was once said that the TITANIC was unsinkable. |
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By: jaymarcel
9/09/2009
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For some reason people still think that Austalian houses are overpriced or we are underpaid either way this large predicted drop is linked to affordability so please look at this link that initially talks about the situation in Malaysia but then goes on to do an Australian comparison.
I look forward to reading the feedback.
http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2009/09/03/vision-2020 -not-bloody-likely/ |
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