By: markcarboon
26/10/2009
7:15 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| You have rambled and waffled on for ages. What a pity you don't even know the difference between to and too. Go and get an education and maybe maybe someone may take you slightly seriously. Moron! |
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By: hdmausguy
26/10/2009
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| I was fooling around with Google Earth & R/E prices some months ago & I looked at the houses in the st.where I used to live. The unrenovated 3 br houses were priced at around $350k in 2009. So who would be better off? If say buyer A. takes up a mortgage in 1990 for $100k. @ 18% int.= $18000 pa. I think it might have even been Keating pointing out to Howard/Costello that people were better off back then, in his term, even with the higher int.? Of course the interest rates did come down a lot. Surely those high rates would have only been around for a few years.For buyer B. A $350k house on todays rate of 5 1/4% would have an int of abt $18.4k pa. Once the high rates of the 90's came back eg 9%? then the interest would be $9k pa 1/2 todays rates. A 25 year mortgage in 1990 would now have 5 years left to run. Wages 20 years ago $600-$700pw had far better puchasing power then today. Like it's tough to find an average job that even pays 1,000pw now. That's only an increase of $300 - $400pw 50%-57%. In 20 years in that same st. house prices have increased 350%. To keep things relative wages should now be $2100 - $2450pw. Show me where you can get a job that pays that much around the suburbs & I'll start tomorrow,nah on second thoughts it'd be a lost cause, the queue would be too long. I think this then amply demonstrates that relative house prices are way to high for the average(majority)working homeowner. A never before in our lifetime property event will occur in Australia. The catalyst coming via a broken American Economy. It's not a matter of IF only a matter of WHEN? Have a look at the debt graph charts and the "J" curves of USA,U K,AUST.& all the other G20 countries plus heaps of other countries eg Africa. Can anybody tell me when this will be paid back? Never? Countless generations into the future. Maybe? Meanwhile this "RED DWARF" they call HYPERINFLATION slowly builds out there in cyberspace. Global warming & the GFC,the worlds 2 great dilemmas. |
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By: lasty49
26/10/2009
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Yuhongli64,
It doesnt happen that way.
When banks are seeing red.. they stop the bleeding .. they rein in the lending..
How many small businesses were knocked back this year on refinance or extra lending?
Reason.. If they see an asset failure they wont lend against it.
If you are cashed up then fine but the first home owners and the ones looking for a property steal arent..they are debtors looking for a bargain which they wont be able to get the loan for to take that advantage.. |
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By: lasty49
26/10/2009
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hdmausguy,
Yup which led to the recession we had to have.
Now that was one mother of an interest rate bite.
It not only squeezed the property market but businesses had to fold as well.
Now that was a real tester of the Australian resolve. |
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By: yuhongli64
26/10/2009
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My problems can be solved quickly as I have cash in my hand or minimum loan if that happens.
AS for other home buyers-when the market goes to a certain level more resonal level, they can still buy property at their own level, which banks believe they will serve the morgate.
There is market called bull market,
there is market called bear market,
NOW the market is called PIG market, as it is totally man-made situation. |
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By: hdmausguy
26/10/2009
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| Lasty - I remember when interest rates were high. Hawke /Keating right. Was it actually 18% on mortgages? I owned my house at that time so I did'nt have a mortgage so I can't check my records on that? As I've said before my house was in the Syd. Western suburbs, on the Georges River at Lansvale near Warwick Farm/Liverpool. I remember at that time a divorced women bought a 3br fibro house opposite me at auction for $99,000. My wage then was about $700pw. |
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By: mentawaisurf
26/10/2009
3:45 pm |
Message deleted. |
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By: shaneclarke
26/10/2009
3:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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In early 1890's prices for land in Melbourne dropped by 50%
( source The Land Boomers, Michael Cannon ) |
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By: lasty49
26/10/2009
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Yuhongli64,
Here lies your problem.
Banks wont lend to you if the housing market collapses.
They already have enough exposure to property.
So those first home buyers better have $250k cash sitting around already to pounce because finance wont be there. |
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By: lasty49
26/10/2009
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hdmausguy,
In 1990 when interest rate h!t their peak around 18% caused some carnage perhaps 20%.I think thats probably the max.
Now the gloomers will no doubt jump on me and say debt levels were lower but I will counter-act and say income taxes were higher and so was inflation.
For a massive of fall of 40% you need some sizeable selling.Unlike the Americans who can walk away from their debts Australians cant and therefore they will sit it out.Who cares if their debt is above what they paid for it? At least they have a roof over their heads and most are in it for the long term. |
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By: hdmausguy
26/10/2009
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| Just a general question to any of you guys that know about property. In all the time that people have been buying properties IN AUSTRALIA,like way back 150 years or more right through to today,including both World Wars & the Gt. depression, has property ever gone down 40-50%? If not that much then what is the greatest % fall ever experienced? |
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By: yuhongli64
26/10/2009
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First home buyers
If you are rejected by the banks. Think this:You are the bless ones!!!
After a long day work back home you can have SWEET DREAMS including have your own homes(they will come true one day without causing you ARMS and legs). |
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By: yuhongli64
26/10/2009
2:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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jaymarcel
I made my cash from property investment too, and I still have my own properties with minimum debt, can you believe it? (I am a Chinese, who believe, in general situations investing in property is a good LONG TERM policy. Just look a lot of Chinese in the world doing the same thing-hard work and save and inverst in property, as it is easy to manage. The have been doing the same thing for generations it's nothing new.)See ?we do have something in common.
My reasons for a property collapse:
1. debt level of household in Australia is too high, compared to average australia incomes
2.first home grant has pushed otherwise would wait and save younger generations too early into the overly heat property market-while investers (like me) have cashed out by selling their recently bought properties-when people stop buying, indicated by marjority buyers are first home buyers. Just look at there are more property on the market now-although they are still asking too much interms of prices
3.inflation and interest rates on the rise
4.US and other countries' examples
5.artifitially unemployment figures here in Australia (when you work an hour a week, you are employed
the list goes on...
The reson I am writing this is: I have learnt from the past and I am one of the lucky ones. I am warning the young and more vunerable people not to make too big mistake in life so when the time is right they can start work on the dreams again-a home, a balenced qulity life. |
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By: lasty49
26/10/2009
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I wouldnt put Hudson in the same camp as Keen.
This guy is smart.
"It is the ability to service the debt that places limits on asset prices."
How many times have I mentioned the DSR?
Debt serviceability ratio.
Keen seemed to think that with mortgage payments being reduced the property market would fall.
His school of thought is completely wrong. |
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By: dr.xingli_writes
26/10/2009
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It is always good to read polite and well mannered opinion on these BLOG's be it in agreement or not with my own.
Absolutely right mentawaisurf.
It is just a matter of time until a large number of owners who are putting their properties on the market start to notice that people are no longer rushing to buy.
When this happens, prices will start to fall as property owners & investors panic and try to attract buyers before prices fall too low.
This rush to offload properties as fast as possible for the most profit before it is too late at prices dictated by greed instead of market cionditions shall create a snowball effect and property prices shall begin to fall like a stone as more and more people begin to realise the truth.
The truth that the "Golden Years" - (see steve_b_wilson"s and others comments on the AUSTRALIA - ECONOMIC DISASTER LOOMS Blog) have well and truly come to an end and as a result, our economy and way of life must revert back to a level which can be naturally maintained by current conditions.
There is no question that residential property here is for the most part is currently grossly over priced. |
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By: mentawaisurf
26/10/2009
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Ang, Michael Hudson was one of only a handful of economists to warn of an impending debt crisis, along with our own Steve Keen of course, prior to the initial phase of the GFC.
Hudson was recently on the Sky Business Show warning that Australia has one of the largest housing bubbles in the world and that Australian's have among the highest level of household debt to income in the world. When asked if Australia's 'supposed' housing shortage (and let's ignore the estimated one million vacant houses in Australia for now, everyone seems to) would prevent a collapse in housing prices he replied that supply and demand and investment mania can only drive prices so high. It is the ability to service the debt that places limits on asset prices and supply shortages do not prevent a housing bubble from bursting. Those who ignored his warnings in the US prior to their housing market collapse would advise that we do not do the same here too. |
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By: jaymarcel
26/10/2009
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| Good reply ang I agree with you but I would like to offer yuhongli a chance to give his reasons for a property collapse as he hasn't given any yet. |
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By: ang101000
26/10/2009
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Mr Yuhongli64,
1) I really don't know who started this string and don't really care. It is irrelevant to the unfolding argument.
2) You are correct; everybody can and should be able to believe and write what ever they want.
3) Those who believe that house prices should correct by 40 to 50% have the choice of waiting for the right opportunity to buy property at a cheaper price.
4) In contrast, those who don't expect any price collapse (in the nine ten years) should (perhaps) hold their properties.
5) Maybe the RBA is right in aiming for price stability with interest rates increases, or maybe not.
6) I don't have any problem whatsoever with Menta's writing or even with any informed property commentary.
7) I don't even have a problem with any uninformed opinion writing in regards to property or any other investment.
8) We all have the choice of NOT reading each-others written rubbish.
9) My sense of humour is mine, if my writing offends don't read it or report it to moderators.
10) At the end of the day, Mr Yuhongli, you are in charge of your own destination.
Bye |
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By: yuhongli64
25/10/2009
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...Continued
site:edu
when the above is typed in, things you find should most of time reserch/journal articles which are writen by people who are less likey biased in the subject area and, the articles have to pass some fairly high levels to be published. |
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By: yuhongli64
25/10/2009
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When we need to check out something on internet, we should try to find some unbiased information. Otherwise we are misled by people, such as banks, realestate agencies, home loan companies and builders etc.
I could not believe when reading an article published by The Australians(I always thought it was a quality paper)
Please read the article'Housing disaster looms if rates rise'. This was writen by a billionaire builder and read the comments (100 fo them)from our dear readers!!!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/stor y/0,28124,26164175-30538,00.html
It is wise to type in your key works with 'site:edu' on websites such as google.com.au. The you are likely to get some fairly nutrual information. |
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By: yuhongli64
25/10/2009
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ang
'Please, don't keep repeating the housing collapse theory, it has failed in Australia'
We didn't care when you flirt with all sorts of men on this forum,it is your freedom and if men are happy imagining your doing pole dancing I am happy for you too.BUT when you asserted the above I say it is still too early to make this conclusion.
Just because you have bought several houses you can't stop us express our free views.
Predict house prices to drop 40-50%.
we like it and believe it's a very good sensible statment
So start your own forum subject if you don't want to be here.
Menta, you have my 100% support. |
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By: ang101000
25/10/2009
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Menta,
You can't be confident that house prices will drop 40 to 50% or even 10 to 15%!
Have you seen the latest projected migration and population growth figures. I rest my case.
Just as the property spruikers should be prosecuted for false advertising (claiming excessive capital growth on property investment), so should those (including Keen) who state on public forums the opposite (frighten people with capital loss).
Please, don't keep repeating the housing collapse theory, it has failed in Australia. |
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By: dr.xingli_writes
25/10/2009
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Great posts qitulong!
The straightforward manner in which you communicate what you have to share is most refreshing.
Generally speaking, property across the country is now priced far in excess of value which can be supported by current economic conditions.
Accordingly, it is only a ,matter of time until the prices begin to fall and the resulting panic caused leads to a huge downward price adjustment. |
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By: qitulong
25/10/2009
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| Buying house is big problem now for most everyone who want to do it. When I hear someone who is working man talking about buy his house for himself instyead of renting I always think what my granny said to me about time to buy and time to save. She said, "NOT BUY WHEN PRICE MOST HIGH. KEEP MONEY IN POCKET TO BUT WHEN PRICE IS CHEAP". I think this good advice for everyone now just like it was good advice to me when I was young man starting out to find new life in new country. Now is time of price of house is MOST HIGH I am thinking. So no good time to buy house. Maybe wait see what happen to prices now. Then maybe buy later I am thinking is best idea. The prices they going to drop like a stone as Guy he said in post he made here too! Better not buy now if you have not need to rush into property market is best I believing for sure 100% right!!! |
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By: qitulong
25/10/2009
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| Mr. mentawaisurf. I agree with you. Of course many people not want to see it is similar though. They want to think only that prices go up always and they get richer all time. But it not so. Now is time of high prices and maybe get a bit higher.. maybe not.. BEFORE collapse. Salary of working man is not going up. More people now unemployed and we see recently stil many BIG job loss occur here in different place. But price of average house is very big price for anyomne want to buy in are where popular place for live and bring family up. I was shock when I see average house is price of nearly $500, 000 in Melbourne area now!! How it can be bought by working man wothout he go in deep of debt? and |
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