By: jadeshangrila
45 minutes ago Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, the rise has tapered off and the big money has already been made. I have sold out of most sectors except the energy, very recently. My thought is that the crude prices are getting uncomfortably high and that yields and PEs are getting close to valuation. It is time to move to safer waters. I take have a very keen interest in classic houses and that has been my focus recently. |
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By: mentawaisurf
58 minutes ago Yahoo! Profile:
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And after viewing the video take a look at this;
The S&P is currently about 1,100: a rally of about 5.5% since late August vs. a 56% rally in the preceding five months.
My point? The time to get really excited about this rally was probably back in March. Investors who waited until the economy improved enough to give them confidence to buy stocks again did so just as the rally slowed to a virtual halt. So what's next for the stock market?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/20 09/11/20/SP-Much-Ado-About-57-Points.aspx |
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By: jadeshangrila
59 minutes ago Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, 2010 will be a interesting year. I suspect the ASX will catch up the lost ground, with the Dow in the first 3 months of that year than you will see a spike in crude prices and a further plunge in the USD which will stroke inflation in the USA and we will get a severe correction . |
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By: mentawaisurf
Today (6:41 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Jade, actually Elliott Wave forecasted that 2010 will be the BIG down year in financial markets (all asset classes) as the deflation intensifies.
But just the initial leg down of this larger bear-market decline would see a rapid test of the March lows in stock indexes. Whether this trend resumes now or in early 2010 it should become apparent soon enough.
For more take a look at this interview with Robert Prechter;
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/prechter-bob-d epew-kevin-bears-elliott-wave-international/index/ a/25382 |
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By: jadeshangrila
Today (5:43 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, the purpose of this bet was to see the accuracy of forecast base on various methods. Yours would obviously be the elliote wave which you are a fan of. Mine will be based on our original thought. We have a policy not follow prophets or the media or analysis from any other investment funds or persons. One can never be a sucessful trader trying to follow someone else's foot steps. There is a difference between a learned person and a intelligent person. One can recite a whole text while the other invent his own. The prove is in the winnings. |
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By: mentawaisurf
Today (4:38 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Well, whether my ASX200 forecast of 3120 by years end is reached or not, I believe the resumption of the underlying bear-market trend will be obvious to everyone by then. And in doing so my cautionary tone will be vindicated so that my presence is no longer required. For my sole aim was to counter the consensus hype, hysteria, denial and wishful thinking of the pundits who proclaim to be experts and the financial media who condition our collective beliefs.
That being the case, my work here will be done. |
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By: christopher_mck
Today (4:12 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| what a laugh . People predicting a massive drop in house prices and we see the direct opposite. Not one of you are anything even boardering on an expert. Even the 'experts' cant get it right so why do yall think you know better? |
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By: jaymarcel
Today (9:50 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Jenny please don't shoot the messenger I was only copy & pasting an article based on a survey.
I don't want property prices to go up in Australia, I don't want anything to go up or down but the fact is I can't change it, I can only speculate like the rest.
In my view we can all still afford a home you just have to work the figures & put the hard yakka in (same as its always been). |
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By: firefly_au
Today (9:44 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello Jade :)
I predict something similar for today too :)
Now lets really do some predicting - do you have a prediction for the close on the Friday before Xmass? If you do is it likely to be better than mine at 5100 on the ASX200 ? I suspect I could be preparing a tasty dish of boiled crow for my supper that day but I just did the prediction for fun he he :) Would you care to have a go?
Unfortunately I seem to have the strong A$ working against my prediction possibly due to the huge US$ carry trade and massive inflows of cheap foreign capital, but I still live in hope! :)
BYE :) |
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By: jennyxuanwu
Today (9:42 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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"Generation Y mortgage holders are capable of repaying their mortgage at an interest rate of at least nine per cent, a mortgage broker survey says.
According Mortgage Choice's 2009 consumer sentiment survey,"
Hi Jay,I don't agree with you on this.
I know you love to hear that property prices in Australia will keep going up for ever. However use this as back up for your theory is like a realestate agent telling a potential buyer that: it is the right time to buy or this is the last chance to secure a property.- a mortgage broker would say things like that. |
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By: jaymarcel
Today (9:34 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| No ang it's my poor sense of humour, without making it obvious I hope you look back on my des comment in relation to your tutu reference |
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By: jaymarcel
Today (9:32 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| jades the only true limit is time & I agree hopefully menta will stay as he provides for a valid & interesting arguement. |
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By: ang101000
Today (9:31 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Sorry Jay,
I don't quite follow your racism and slavery remark in regards to my earlier post.
If I offended you in any way - I'm making an apology now - I am very sorry.
Ang |
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By: jadeshangrila
Today (9:24 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Ang, the market will head above 4800 and will close very close to that number on the up or the bottom plus minus a hundred points. I hope Menta will stay, even if his forecast wasn't correct because it is good to have an intellect with a different point of view regarding the economy for a good debate. You can't have the left without the right. I find that some economist have too much emphasis on the monetary system forgetting that it can be manipulated like a computer program by the government and limitations in the human economy is actually only limited by resources whether human or mineral or water or energy or land or clean air. The limit of the economy will come when such is things come to it's limit. |
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By: jaymarcel
Today (9:17 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang prediction is all we have.
I also think racism & slavery is out so leave desmond alone he's not interested in your christmas party |
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By: lasty49
Today (9:15 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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ang,
With all that Viagra and market stimulus Im out of breath.
After a few correctional sessions (a cigarette break) it looks like we are up up and away.
I try not to let Menta's coitus interuptus affect my trend ;-) |
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By: ang101000
Today (9:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Are we all still trying to predict the market? Humm, I am off to buy my black tutu:-), need to wear something appropriate for the office x-mas party....
Menta,
Start waxing your legs...( Chances are we both going to wrong; the market remains irrational).
Lasty,
How you going with your prediction? I think, the market could do with a Viagra treatment ( at least the charts would point to 'up' direction). |
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By: jaymarcel
Today (8:11 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, this very website has a news article today that gives reason as to why house prices will continue to go up & have a long way to go before they become unaffordable to Gen Y.
"Gen Y capable of repaying their mortgage
Monday November 23, 2009, 5:50 pm
Generation Y mortgage holders are capable of repaying their mortgage at an interest rate of at least nine per cent, a mortgage broker survey says.
According Mortgage Choice's 2009 consumer sentiment survey, 64 per cent of existing borrowers aged 18 to 29 years said they could afford repayments at, or above nine per cent.
Of those, almost half - 46 per cent - are prepared to repay at 11 per cent or more." |
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By: enoughwealth
Yesterday (1:29 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta wrote: "...yes there will be enough housing to go around for all. Housing at affordable prices again in just a few years time"
I'm glad the ASX200 index on Dec 31 will stop Menta writing this sort of wishful thinking nonsense!. Although he allegedly means well, if any wanne-be FHO read this and decide to put off buying a home until Menta's utopia arrives they could be waiting a L-O-N-G time.
Considering only the Sydney market (which I'm familiar with) I'd expect average prices to be up by 10%-30% five years from now. At that time wages will probably be about 15%-25% higher than now, so housing won't be any more affordable compared to today (probably less so if interest rates are closed to long-term average), and today's prices will look relatively 'affordable' in hind-sight.
Of course this view assumes that we continue to see inflation rates typical of the past couple of decades. Since Menta expects an unusual deflationary episode to hit the Australian economy any day now, he'd disagree. |
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By: lasty49
Yesterday (1:26 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
"A FORTY per cent increase in Sydney's population over the next 20 years means the State Government has no option but to open up scores of suburbs for new developments, according to a radical proposal for Sydney to build 640,000 new dwellings."
Source SMH.
If current infrastructure is anything to go by in NSW, most will be living in tents. |
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By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (1:08 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, yes there will be enough housing to go around for all. Housing at affordable prices again in just a few years time. Although the pain for too many will be severe during this transitional deflationary price adjustment, the end result of affordable and sustainabe housing prices will ultimately be a good thing.
Jay, did you even read this article?
Gold Coast defies naysayers
The Australian. November 19, 2009.
THE troubled and erratic Gold Coast housing market has thrown up another surprise, with a report showing about the same number and value of residential projects are either starting or under way as at the height of the 2007 boom.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/ gold-coast-defies-naysaye rs/story-e6frg9gx-1225799 478533?from=public_rss |
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By: lasty49
Yesterday (1:01 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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"the point being that it will be too late for too many of the record number of Australian's who have a record large mortgage."
Well people dont mind paying for a roof over their head it seems.
Perhaps many have decided to use their homes as their source of entertainment rather than spending elsewhere.
The change in human behaviour is very hard to map.
It could be that society is going through a skimp and save mode and home entertainment is the most affordable option.
If thats the case that will put more upward pressure on the housing market.
But Menta you shouldnt be really concerned because Keen stated that there was a housing surplus so there will be enough to go around for all ;-) |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
Yesterday (12:41 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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"Unfortunately these dwellings will come online just as the most severe phase of the credit contraction and housing price deflation develops"
Not likey since some of the biggest developers on the Gold Coast recently went belly up. |
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By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (12:07 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Lasty, the point being that it will be too late for too many of the record number of Australian's who have a record large mortgage. |
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By: lasty49
Yesterday (11:55 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
"Unfortunately by then it will be too late for too many."
Who for?
Those who have a house or those wishing to buy one?
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,2832 3,26386850-5013951,00.html |
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