By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (3:05 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| You're spot on Hugh. In fact Australia's housing bubble has grown to look akin to the proverbial hippy who is well overdue for a 'haircut'. And it's likely to be more like a shave cut than a trim. |
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By: hdmausguy
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| menta - Perhaps a glimpse of the future here. Bloomberg Nov 16 2009. Goldman Sachs,in Miami Florida sold 158 condominiums in a FORECLOSED Miami project for $113,000 each. This being roughly 1/3 of the land & construction costs. In a notable understatement Real Estate broker Peter Zalewski said "they(Goldman Sachs)took a big haircut". Peter went on to say the average unit size is 102 sq/m. He also noted that Miami condo prices had fallen 37% in the past year. |
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By: hdmausguy
Yesterday (12:57 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| menta - I'm with you 100% on your Gold Coast post. Further to that, I get a weekly market wrap via Elitetraders. In their letter last Monday 16/11/09 they mentioned developers/marketers City Pacific had a below market selloff of a Gold Coast office tower for $9.5 million. This was $5.5 million below their $15 million list price 12 months ago. They also said that there is still plenty of these time bombs waiting to go off. It was also mentioned that commercial real estate in Australia is just as sick as in USA. |
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By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (12:22 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Gold Coast defies naysayers
The Australian. November 19, 2009.
THE troubled and erratic Gold Coast housing market has thrown up another surprise, with a report showing about the same number and value of residential projects are either starting or under way as at the height of the 2007 boom.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/ gold-coast-defies-naysayers/story-e6frg9gx-1225799 478533?from=public_rss
Even with record mortgagee sales, Gold Coast developers are back to building record numbers of dwellings (influenced by all the hype about a supposed housing shortage, growing population and an imminent recovery in the economy and our housing market). This is typical behavior near a peak in optimism for a recovery (ie. build them and they will come). Unfortunately these dwellings will come online just as the most severe phase of the credit contraction and housing price deflation develops. Expect mortgagee rates to soar to never-before-seen levels over the next few years (not only on the Gold Coast but all around Australia). |
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By: eamon167
Yesterday (9:53 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Agree with davidkam88.
Other things now.
I reckon the top govt officals are trying to
maximise the housing prices before they can cash in on the ridiculous housing market.
Once the bubble goes burst, they will be able to pickup half-price-bargains and cash in again.
Devious cycles.
### You know Australia has the world's most expensive houses in terms of average salaries per person ###
This bubble is no doubt gona go burst just a matter of time.
Can you all top govt officials squeeze the money out of the fatcats instead of ordinary ppl? |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (8:04 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Unfortunately al the gov needs to do something to get people living in QLD to move to reginal areas, Brisbane is being destroyed by the speed of change due to population growth & there are plenty of liveable country towns. |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
3 days ago (Wednesday, 8:33 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Sorry Vicinity |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
3 days ago (Wednesday, 8:23 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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No, because with the driver of Capital Gain from selling at a profit gone out the window, the increased rent only balances the interest rates going up. In fact these rent increases cause a reduction in negative gearing benefits off your salary, because your tax bill goes up. Rent increases have to in the vicinition of $50 or more a week in most cases to make real estate prices to go up.
Al |
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By: winghang_hui
3 days ago (Wednesday, 6:01 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| How about if the rent is increasing, the investment return from property is better than the other market? Do the investor will buy the property? |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
3 days ago (Wednesday, 5:39 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Goverments have little interest in reducing house prices, too much downside and less taxes. Look at Anna Bligh wanting to give an extra $3000 to first home buyers who buy in regional areas. Joke! NO jobs and such a small amount.
$30,000 maybe and guarantee a job (council worker etc).
And the developer who tired after 3 months trying to get an appointment with Bligh. He wanted to develop a new community of low cost ($300,000) first homes but needed planning approval to increase the number to make it viable. He gave up and is NOT going to do it.
Al |
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By: jaymarcel
3 days ago (Wednesday, 9:25 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ralph, Relying on downsizing is also a very risky way of expecting a comfortable retirement from the left over cash, if there is a greater demand for smaller homes when it comes to your retirement then you are not onto a sure winner as there may not be a big difference in value.
I do not intend to offend but just point out some facts & my opinion. |
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By: ang101000
3 days ago (Wednesday, 8:28 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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"So the question of whether enough is being done to make the supply side of the housing
sector more responsive to these demands will remain on the agenda.
"Adequate financial resources will of course also be needed.
"In that regard, the current issue is not the cost of borrowing for end buyers, which remains
low, but the availability and terms of credit for developers.
"Perceptions by lenders of the riskiness of development in some cases are probably
overdone just at the moment, given the strength of the underlying fundamentals on the
demand side for accommodation.
"That will probably not be a permanent problem though; the more persistent difficulties
look like they may be in the areas of land supply, zoning and approval. |
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By: ang101000
3 days ago (Wednesday, 8:27 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Glen Stevens view on housing
"First, we start this upswing with less spare capacity than some previous ones.
"After a big recession, it usually takes some years for well-above-trend growth in demand
to use up the spare capacity created by the recession. This time that process will not take
as long. Most measures of capacity utilisation, unemployment and underemployment are
much more like what we saw after the slowdown in 2001, than what we saw after the
recession in the early 1990s.
"This is not a problem. In fact, it is good. It is a goal of macroeconomic policy to try to keep
the economy not too far from full employment.
"And some spare capacity does exist, and will do so for a little while, which is why we think
underlying inflation will probably come down a little more in the period ahead.
"But it does underline the importance of adding to supply, not just to demand, over the
medium term, and of maximising the productivity of the factors of production that we have,
if we are to have the sort of growth that genuinely brings prosperity."
"Second, and following on the theme of potential supply, others have noted that the rate of
population growth at present is the highest since the 1960s.
"On one hand, this may help alleviate capacity constraints, insofar as certain types of
labour are concerned.
"On the other hand, immigrants need to house themselves and need access to various
goods and services as well.
"That is, they add to demand as well as to supply.
"It follows that the demand for additional dwellings, among other things, is likely to remain
strong. Corresponding effects will flow on to urban infrastructure requirements and so on. continued |
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By: ralph.montegue
4 days ago (Tuesday, 5:15 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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My dear jaymarcel!
..Excuse me , but I really could not help myself and feel that I need to respond to your post to Guy.
RE: your post of 0749 today -
That is a bit of a broad statement isn`t it old chap? I mean to say, many of the people I know did just that! None of them were fools and would each probably take offence to you referring to them as such!
And let us not forget, it is all too common for people with large homes to sell up upon retirement and move into smaller accomodation. |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Tuesday, 2:48 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| I'm happy to agree with your analysis there enoughwealth. |
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By: enoughwealth
4 days ago (Tuesday, 12:54 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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There have been endless comparisons regarding whether it is better to rent and invest elsewhere (eg. stock market), or spend your money on buying a home. Depending on the time period and segment (eg. Aus vs OS stocks, Sydney vs. Adelaide real estate, this suburb vs. that suburb etc etc) either one can end up producing a better result -- but over most periods >10 years they'd both beat having your cash in a savings account.
I think the main benefit of buying a home for many people is the 'compulsory saving' aspect -- most people will tighten their belts, do extra work etc. in order to meet home loan repayments, so they end up retiring with their home paid off and no rent expenses (so have less expenses to fund from their old age pension). A lot of these people, I suspect, would NOT consistently save the exact same amount if they were renting -- the temptation is to increase consumption at the expense of regular saving. So they end up having to rent in retirement, which isn't offset entirely by having a larger investment 'nest egg' compared to home owners.
I think with high house prices there can also be some benefit re higher pension for retirees with assets of just their own home and little else, compared with renting retirees with an equivalent amount of asset value sitting in other investments. |
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By: jadeshangrila
4 days ago (Tuesday, 10:47 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| The emergence of industrial China and cheap consumer goods have in the last decade resulted in the inflation of wealth assets such as houses. With less money spend on cheap consumer goods have left individuals to borrow more and buy into their dream homes. It results in a decade of low consumer goods inflation and subsequent low interest rates. As wages rise but things remain cheap consumers have more money to pay the mortgage. Such can explain the higher house mortgage to income ratio. We can expect the reverse to happen if crude prices spike or their is a shortage of cheap labor in China. |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Tuesday, 7:49 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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guy, Anyone expecting to use their home as a nest egg for retirement is a fool, you still have to live somewhere so you still can't sell it & be homeless.
The purpose of owning a home in retirement is that you have no outgoings for accommodation when you have limited income.
I'd rather be spending retirement money enjoying it not paying rent. |
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By: guy.longshank1
5 days ago (Monday, 4:26 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Though certain properties in certain areas shall maintain value despite the pending economic collapse, many shall not.
For most people, the threat of realising a significant loss is real.
Are you confident that your retirement nest egg, (your home) is really the most reliable form of nest egg to hold? |
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By: jennyxuanwu
5 days ago (Monday, 7:47 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi jay,
Yes from what I know housing prices are coming down at top end of the market |
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By: jaymarcel
5 days ago (Monday, 7:41 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Almurrie, You have hit the nail on the head there mate.
Jenny thanks for the link, he is correct up until one bit, house prices are still going up but he mentions them currently coming down. |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
6 days ago (Sunday, 3:54 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ferret
Have you noticed normal house prices ARE about 3 times average wage. Unfortunately people want more that the standard 3 bed, and pay extra for it. The land the house is put on is a different matter. That's why it is called real estate. Real estate is about the land cost, the house part stays relatively the same with inflation. The land however goes up a lot when it is desirable to have, eg. big city close to the centre.
Al |
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By: jennyxuanwu
14/11/2009
8:55 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello everyone!!
This is an American professor's insight on our "BULL" Australian property market.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/fall-in-housing- starts-to-impact-prices-20091110-i7qk.html
Sleep easy. |
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By: ralph.montegue
14/11/2009
7:02 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Dear, dear lasty49.. I hope you will not mind my saying. But really! I would stay away from an YUM CHA that was prepared in the P. R. of China. Locally prepared YUM CHA is not only much tastier, it is also prepared in a much more hygenic manner. Communist YUM CHA may be your undoing my good fellow. |
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By: ferratuss
13/11/2009
1:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| house prices=3xave wage as rule in aus-now 9x ave wage due to lack of supply it,s a big fat bubble that has all levels of gov. collecting heaps while supporting their mates to boot.realestate is the economy and it props up goverments with20th century revenue streams and when it goes wrong as it will hello ireland iceland and latvia |
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