By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
28/10/2009
5:35 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Riding the tightrope. At least Kev is less likely to be bribed by the big oil and coal. Even so getting rid of oil and coal overnight would probably see him a target of hit men. A very fine balancing act, can you imaging the negative hit to stocks? Gently gently catchee monkey. The weening off of electricity supplies from coal and switching cars to electric will take a while while the players lose all their billions of infrastructure which will now be useless.
Al |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
28/10/2009
4:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| I don't think Malcolm is the real problem at the moment Lasty. If he had a good team behind him then you could forgive him for not being the best leader. Noone will win an election when the best you have behind you is Tony Abbot. |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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firefly,
What problem?
Im yet to see the alarmist debate it against the skeptics on a level playing field.
If you are going to tax people on carbon then surely there has to be a valid reason.
Sure if they want to tax you to raise funds for alternative energies then so be it but they dont have to use the smoke and mirrors.
All Ive seen is someone is telling me Sydney will be like Venice and Polar bears will be in Harvey Normans buying fridges because the ice caps have melted.
As for Capt Rudd he is currently ruling the waves in his little ocean.For how long depends on the opposition to put up a good candidate.
I think Humphrey B Bear has more of a chance than poor old Malcolm. |
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By: firefly_au
28/10/2009
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Hi lasty :)
Mate we have to do something about the global warming problem and other pollution problems! If we can wean ourselves off our nearly total dependence on oil at the same time so much the better! This is the time if we are ever to do it without much pain.
IMHO the carbon credits scheme if managed well and in unison measures with other world energy users and polluters we may have converted energy supply enough to survive the comming oil shortages and price shocks!
So Capt. Rudd cant be doing that badly! Surely it is and will be watered down more if the rest of the world don't swing into action or the research showing the need for action turns out to be false?
BYE:) |
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By: mentawaisurf
28/10/2009
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Whenever marginal borrowers enter a market in record numbers and on record debt levels (as we've seen with subprime in the US, rent-to-buy in the UK and recently with the FHBs surge in Australia's housing market) that signals the final tipping point from boom to bust. We've seen the top-end of Australia's housing bubble partially deflate while the lower-end has actually re-inflated! This is largely due to the enhanced FHOG & property bulls (agents, mortgage brokers, developers, builders & other vested interests) who continue to spruik housing for their own benefit.
This sector divergence is creating a market distortion that will only lead to even more pain moving forward, especially for those first-home buyers who were enticed to purchase on little or even no deposit (as developers like Devine & others continue to push).
Below is an extract from the Devine Limited website. They are aggressively marketing their properties to first home buyers with seminars across the country. And they are still heavily pushing their hard-hitting advertising campaign of 'No Deposit - No Worries!'
So when banks refuse to take on the risk of unqualified FHB's, and those with no deposit at all, then developers are happy to approve instant vendor finance - No Worries! And Devine are not alone. Builders and developers are doing the same - all around Australia. They are helping create a new generation of highly over-leveraged and heavily indebted Australians whose resultant mortgage defaults will be the final tipping point for a dramatic fall in our housing market.
And still FHB's continue to fly into their web - in record numbers! |
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By: mentawaisurf
28/10/2009
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Whenever marginal borrowers enter a market at record numbers (as we've seen with subprime in the US, rent-to-buy in the UK and recently with the FHBs surge in Australia's housing market) that signals the final tipping point from boom to bust. We've seen the top-end of Australia's housing bubble partially deflate while the lower-end has actually reflated! This is largely due to the enhanced FHOG & property bulls (agents, mortgage brokers, developers, builders & other vested interests) who continue to spruik housing for their own benefit.
This sector divergence is creating a market distortion that will only lead to even more pain moving forward, especially for those first-home buyers who were enticed to purchase on little or even no deposit (as developers like Devine & others continue to push).
Below is an extract from the Devine Limited website. They are aggressively marketing their properties to first home buyers with seminars across the country. And they are still heavily pushing their hard-hitting advertising campaign of 'No Deposit - No Worries!'
So when banks refuse to take on the risk of unqualified FHB's, and those with no deposit at all, then developers are happy to approve instant vendor finance - No Worries! And Devine are not alone. Builders and developers are doing the same - all around Australia. They are helping create a new generation of highly over-leveraged and heavily indebted Australians whose resultant mortgage defaults will be the final tipping point for a dramatic fall in our housing market.
And still FHB's continue to fly into their web - in record numbers! |
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By: mentawaisurf
28/10/2009
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FIRST home buyers seeking advice on entering the property market can have all their questions answered at a series of new seminars being held by leading homebuilder Devine Limited.
Devine is holding First Home Buyer Seminars throughout Australia.
"The seminars are designed to take away some of the confusion involved in buying your first home," said Steve Weightman, Devine General Manager South Australia. "First home buyers can have all their questions answered in a friendly and welcoming atmosphere, and get all the specialist advice that they need."
The seminars will include expert knowledge from a leading finance company specializing in home loans, and an independent view of why property is a good investment.
Mr Weightman said it was a great time for first home buyers to get into the market, especially with the $21,000 Federal and $4,000 State First Home Owners Grants.
"There are some terrific government incentives available to first homebuyers, including a $21,000 grant for first home buyers building their own home," he said. "We are also enjoying the lowest interest rates for many years."
Devine Limited is a leading Australian homebuilder. |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
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Hi Fire,
I like to bake my fortune cookies using only organic ingredients. You think, I added too much green weed to the dough today?
Oh well, at least I am smiling...We only have to wait till December to see who is on dope. |
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By: firefly_au
28/10/2009
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Hi All :)
I hope you are all having a good day:)
Ang hello :)
Goodness a bull market for two years with some corrections is a big call! You must be baking magic fortune cookies? What little gems are you baking in them that allows you to predict so far ahead? he he :)
Frankly though I hope it does as you suggest but if it does not It won't hurt those of us that have been in since march much as we can bail with nice profits if it turns ugly.
Jenny hello :)
Thanks for straightening me out on the HK political issues:) BTW IMHO you handled the flack you copped earlier well - even for a mere High School Chemistry Teacher he he :) If you dont mind buying property internationally it would be a good time to buy in the UK and USA would be my guess too so fair call! :)
Hi Jay :)
This is one of the problems you have picked with many posts here on the blog often while what is posted may be true there is a usually a "desert" of supporting reasoning offered to wet our appetite. So my opinion is look into it yourself by DYOR and make up your own mind. How is the property market fairing in SE Qld? It seems to be roaring here in Melb up 5% last Qtr.
BYE :) |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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Ang,
Good luck on your treasure hunt with individual stock picks. |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
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Lasty,
are you thinking of migrating to China perhaps? Mate, I don't think your Chinese language skills are as good as Rudd's. Ha ha...
I do agree though that we need to have a rethink of our investment in some sectors eg. banking and commodities/mining. They had a good run, I am starting to look now for unexpected little gems in the share market. I think, the Chinese have stockpiles of commodities and the prices for those commodities will only increase as full recovery takes hold world wide.
I agree with Menta, banking and mining was the first to recover from GFC and they are priced accordingly. I am looking for growth companies going forward. |
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By: enoughwealth
28/10/2009
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I doubt that FHB are the "last" buyers, or that higher interest rates will burst any Australian property "bubble". Since the FHB was reduced a bit, FHB have decreased as a proportion of residential real estate buyers, yet property prices are currently moving up again -- investors have started moving back into property as confidence levels have recovered.
Property (eg. Sydney residential real estate) prices tend to move in a 7-10 year cycle, with periods of real growth following by no real growth. I think a lot of people predicting the bursting of a property bubble in Australia are confusing the normal cyclical movement in real prices with a bubble. Perhaps they have been waiting for house prices to become 'affordable' for more than ten years, and are starting to realise that if they wait for house prices to drop 30% or more, they will end up still paying rent to people like me in their retirement? |
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By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
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Menta why will we see more sellers than buyers, can we have some reasoning behind these statements.
Usually population growth causes more demand/more buyers |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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jenny,
" was in talking to some foreingers I think in 2001, when 1A$=0.5 US$, I asked them where to invest, all of them told me to buy properties in Australia, and they did. If I was them, I would sell my Aussie properties now and go back to the US or other countries to grab gragins again."
Yup you never go broke taking profit as the old cliche says
But why wouldnt they have done that when the currency was at 98 cents and then watch it fall to 60 cents?
Perhaps they appear to be in it for the long haul.
J@panese investors on the other hand sold Gold Coast properties because they lost on the exchange rate and were forced to sell... Ouch |
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By: mentawaisurf
28/10/2009
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| Why does any asset bubble burst? When the last buyers enter a market (read marginal borrowers lured into the market with 'free' money in the form of FHBs). We'll soon see more sellers than buyers which will lead to falling prices and further selling pressures. |
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By: jennyxuanwu
28/10/2009
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Fire,
The political takeover went fine, there was no relationship to what happened in Hong Kong and the Mainland government takeover.
The Hong Kong market was dominated by property companies. It was greed, fueled by 'stir fry some concepts'and when interest rates go up, property companies and finance firm all suffered.It was both a psychological impact and a real impact, the magnitude was huge.
I look at Australia, don't know it is in a better or worse situation now as
east Asian countries had the highest rate of savings in the world, and account for over half of the world’s savings,which was more than they could productively invest (there was no need to open the doors to dangerous foreign money to do the 'stir fry' I mean).
If the cause of the crisis was the immense rapid capital flight out of Asia, which was related to the global financial market norm and those flows resulted herd-like investment behavior ended so badly. Australians are not the best savers as far as I am concerned. What's going to happen next?
ps I was in talking to some foreingers I think in 2001, when 1A$=0.5 US$, I asked them where to invest, all of them told me to buy properties in Australia, and they did. If I was them, I would sell my Aussie properties now and go back to the US or other countries to grab gragins again |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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Ang,
Interesting times ahead.
Rudd trying to be captain of the ghost ship "Carbon Credit".
If he gets his paws on the controls then its shipwreck ahead and 22 million Australians will be Asylum seekers. |
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By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
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| Wow ang thats a big call. |
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By: ang101000
28/10/2009
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Lasty,
your 'prediction is spot on, I agree and expect a bull market for an extended period (up to two years) perhaps a correction mid next year. |
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By: jaymarcel
28/10/2009
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Menta I hate to say it but you have put your head on the chopping block here as you have claimed large property price falls without giving any real reason, along with your advice on here for property investors to sell before the crash & fhb not to buy.
I am only willing to go as far as say I only expect property to stay with inflation long term & any extra price rise is a bonus, when buying a house to live in your buying a home & I'm happy to also promise fhb their home will be worth more at the end of their mortgage (25 years) than it is now so as long as you can afford the repayments why not buy? as at least in 25 years time your money would have bought you something resellable. |
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By: lasty49
28/10/2009
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ang,
When markets correct they tend become choppy.
The longterm uptrend is still intact so be wary of the whips as natural buyers enter the market.
Happy hunting |
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By: firefly_au
27/10/2009
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Hello Jenny :)
Yes that was a real human tragedy all right!
I assume the stocks were only so cheap after the crash in HK and people after having been burnt where too scared to invest again! Just as a matter of interest was it the sudden withdrawal of foreign capital just before the PRC took over that caused the crash? As I recall the PRC was not trusted to do the right thing by many and I suspect this caused a flight of capital?
We had similar PE ratios earlier this year on the ASX and under normal circumstances they would be cheap too. But to buy a person has to have some faith that the world is not about to end he he :)
BYE :) |
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By: jennyxuanwu
27/10/2009
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I do not hope the same situation happens in Australia.
I remember some of my friends who worked in share related (investment)companies, talking about shares how 'sooo cheap' the shares were. But people either had not cash or so scared to buy again.
P/E ratio was between 8-12 bargains everywhere... |
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By: jennyxuanwu
27/10/2009
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'what happened in Hong Kong after 1997?'
People in Hong Kong at that time believed that mainland communist government would like to see Hong Kong's prosperity keep going and getting better after taking over from the Bristish. It was called 'China concept' or 'Return concept' when people bet their money in the stock and property market, they used analogy to 'stir fry shares and stir fry properties'. The situation got red hot (or positive if you like to call it).
Then it started going wrong. Heng Seng Index droped 1200 in a mater of one day. People took margin loans to trade shares, bought properties at ridiculously high price with their great recently gains (but now much bigger bet)found it hard to comprehend. Some smart people if they could, transfered their red chip(mainland China related )into blue chips and hold on. Those who were not lucky had to 'cut their arms and legs'(their own language). The unluckiest could not believe that they could make a comeback in life and could not face their fate. We often heard news that people jumped off from skyhigh buildings to finish off everything.
Real human tragedy! |
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By: firefly_au
27/10/2009
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Hi Ang :)
It will be interesting to see if the banks perform better than they predicted when they report later this week. It will indicate whether there is a chance their performance is actually keeping pace with the SP increases or not!
Regarding the correction - of late there is a delay in the ASX has to downward movement in the Dow. The Dow has retreated around 2.3% in the last week and the ASX has not but today it has started to follow in earnest falling 1.6%.
It will be interesting to see if it continues if the earning reports in Australia are better than expected......
BYE :) |
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