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By: firefly_au
4/11/2009
3:41 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Hi Ang :) Hi All:)

If we are going to be dictators here is my slant.....

A fixed income tax of 10% for all income earners - no deductions for any reason! You earn it you pay! Corporations and businesses included with private individuals..Simple and cheap to administer

Separate the welfare system from the tax system and allow income spiting per household. Eg if there are 4 individuals allow the income to be split 4 ways with a modest Tax free threshold of say $10,000 for all to encourage breeding the next generation of taxpayers to support me in my dotage he he :)

Reduce the size of our Government by shedding the state level - migrate all state functions up to the national level or down to council level.

Hows that for a dream? he he :)

BYE :)

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
3:29 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Thats was the viagra Ang,

By: ang101000
4/11/2009
3:24 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Lasty,

it seems they still haven't lost their potency...

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
3:24 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
There isnt much wrong with our monetary system however Im not in favour of our retail banking system running roughshod over authorities.
To ensure they are kept in check, I would set up a govt bank for the retail punters ie like CBA of old.

By: ang101000
4/11/2009
3:21 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Craig,

Mate I am a dictator already (at work). Ok, extend my powers and I would do the opposite than everybody does;

establish the latest and biggest tax heaven on this planet, Oz Inc from coast to coast.

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
3:18 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Ang,
"your discussion about currency makes me wonder if you all had magic mushrooms for breakfast?"

They werent that magic love..
They must have been pirated from china.

By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
3:04 pm

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  craigaharwood

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
ang, this is your great opportunity, dictator of australia for a day - what would do with our financial and monetary systems?

By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
3:02 pm

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  craigaharwood

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
:) One of those days I should be working instead of day dreaming

By: ang101000
4/11/2009
3:01 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Hi Lasty, Jay and Craig,

your discussion about currency makes me wonder if you all had magic mushrooms for breakfast?

By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
12:35 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Lasty I'd fix it to a basket of our top 5 major trading partners weighted by trade amount $.

I'd set it at a level that is about 20% lower than the mean point from last 20years trade history.

That would give us the ability to start to rebuild some manufacturing but not make imports so dear that it held back growth.

You would have to take control of your own monetary policy becuase the speculators would stop the inflow of currency to Australia and we would have to feed the fractional reserve system with real money and I'd fix up the abuse of the fractional reserve system as well.

Then I'd have lunch :)

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
12:15 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Ha hmmmm be careful what you wish for

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
12:13 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
"I advise you fix it to Chinas yuan"

The Aussie Yuan... I like it hahaha

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
12:06 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Jay,

The US dont look like holding it for too long.
So yes China looks like the front running candidate..

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
12:05 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
I advise you fix it to Chinas yuan

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
12:00 pm

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Thanks lasty I was about to do a search online, so that was followed by the end of ww1 then the great depression then the recovery & then the poms lost any chance of reclaiming the title.
So the switch to China could likely be a 100 year change over.

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
11:58 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
"have to agree really not likely, make me dictator of australia for a day and the first thing I'd do is unfloat? our dollar and take control of monetary policy."

Really? What would you fix it to.

By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
11:56 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
"It would be interesting now if China decided to free float (not that this is likely as it would be more harmful to their reserves than anyone else)"

have to agree really not likely, make me dictator of australia for a day and the first thing I'd do is unfloat? our dollar and take control of monetary policy.

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
11:31 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Jay,

Well the poms would never admit the empire is dead but I think things started to go down hill around the time of WW1.
Probably late 1800's the US started to build some economic traction.

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
11:12 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Just out of interest when did the powerhouse claim change from the UK to USA (which decade?)?

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
11:00 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
When the GFC hit the repatriation for US dollars affected all currencies not just the high yielders.
The stampede for US treasuries was called for from so called experts until the dust settled and sensibility took over.
Why would you take refuge in a building that is collapsing?
Its logical that you would want to get away from it as far as possible.
What you have to ask yourself is one simple question.
What is going to turn the US around to make it into an economic powerhouse it once was?
If you cant think of anything that stands out immediately and are scratching your head for answers then you are like the rest of us.

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
10:09 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
It would be interesting now if China decided to free float (not that this is likely as it would be more harmful to their reserves than anyone else)

By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
10:00 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Lasty, I guess this is one of the big calls, why has US Dollar been supported so well to date and and if that decoupling did happen and the dollar went way south how or why would it recover?

I guess that at the moment cheap money out of the USA looking for a home will depress the dollar but at some point if you are a USA hedge fund (also read bank)is there a point at which it makes sense to realise the profits and bring it back into home country dollars.

The last unwinding of the carry trade just a year ago collapsed the AUD Dollar, I'd like to see the figures on how much is in that caryy trade now and what the impact would be if it was unwound at the same reate as last time.

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
9:16 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
I think the next twelve months will prove interesting on 'if & by how much' various countries can de-couple from one another (& possible couple up with others).
We have various european countries heading in different directions, we have the UK & USA with the world, we have j@pan/china & asia/pacific (which has kind of already played out over a number of years).

By: lasty49
4/11/2009
8:58 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Menta,

In the short run, what's happening is that there is a wall of liquidity, not just in the United States but around the world, that is chasing assets. It is equities, commodities, it's credit, it is gold, it is emerging market asset classes".
"We have the mother-of-all carry trades. Everybody is borrowing, shorting the dollar, and investing in assets all over the world."
"Once the dollar reverses, you need to close your shorts, dump assets..."

They are smart people.
Of course there will be profitaking along the way but really who in their right mind will want to invest in the US with all their troubles at the moment.
Thats the problem.There has to be a valid reason why the US dollar will turn around.

By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
8:51 am

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Re:Keens predictions Reply to this message
Hi Craig, I do think he should have done his article in two parts, one argueing that deflation is not as big a concern as assumed (which I agree with if short term) & two that deflation is not likely (depends if there is a difference between short term negative inflation & deflation), as you say unfortunatley he confuses the reader by mixing the two storys together, I kind of read into the article he was saying we should not mix deflation with short term negative inflation which will always be the case after a GFC.
I am sure I will be corrected by trying to separate negative inflation & deflation but I think we should be careful on calling a situation deflation if the price of something goes down for a very short period of time.
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