By: mentawaisurf
21/07/2009
5:27 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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lasty, actually Roubini was quoted out of context as this extract from his website confirms;
"It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over 'this year' and that I have 'improved' my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however - my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.
"I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year's end.
"I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year. On one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium-term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation), thus leading to a crowding out of private demand.
So it's likely that Roubini will confirm Keen's outlook moving forward while Keen's forecast for Australia will prove to be correct (another Palm d'or for Forecaster of the Year for 2009?) When prescient forecasts, against the influence of their peers and to much public derision, are proven correct then the forecaster can no longer be labelled an alarmist or an extremist - but a visionary. |
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By: lasty49
21/07/2009
4:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
Even Roubini is calling it "Worst behind us but more stimulus needed" referring to the USA.
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN16 44573320090717
So whats Keen going to do now?
Go against the great Roubini?
Admit there is a change in economic activity and the severity in the economic downturn is finished?
The issue I have with extremists, is that they dont know when its time. Bullish or bearish they are all the same. |
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By: mentawaisurf
21/07/2009
4:13 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The RBA board is popping champagne, back slapping and congratulating each other on a job well done by saving the Australian economy from the global recession.
These are the exact same people who not only were totally blindsided by the bear market and GFC but were so focused on inflation at the time that they continued raising interest rates (raising the sails) even as we were sailing right into the storm.
We all know who has the better track record and who we should be listening to moving forward (Forecaster of the Year - Professor Keen);
http://business.theage.com.au/business/for-predict ing-the-slump-just-a-few-get-medals-20090703-d7vr. html
Keen has also been internationally recognized as one of the first to forecast the crisis along with some illustrious and prescient company (Shiller, Roubini and a select few);
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/07/15/no-o ne-saw-this-coming-balderdash/
Still the pundits cry that we are entering a new bull market! "The bear market that has pounded stocks for more than a year has ended, a broker said, as Australian shares head for their sixth day of gains," reports Chris Zappone in today's Age. "I believe we saw the bottom of the market on the ninth of March," says Alex Moffat, a director at Joseph Palmer & Sons.
Over in America, the S&P 500 has reached an eight-month high. You definitely get the sense that fund managers and investors are determined not to miss this rally. It's become self-fulfilling. But is it sustained by underlying health in the economy and corporate earnings? Or is it just another trip to the Wall Street casino?
For the real answers look no further than Keen's website at;
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/ |
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By: rowlirowl
21/07/2009
4:13 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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It's isn't over until someone famous and important declares it is, and then all the markets will drop again ;)
Though in Prof. Steven Keen's favour is the Herengracht Index. How does modern housing prices stack up against the Herengracht Index? |
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By: lasty49
21/07/2009
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Access economics have revised down their unemployment numbers from 8.5% to 7.5%.
Now the deflationists are predicting a massive blow out.
Keen even suggested we could reach 15% unemployment.
The RBA has signal near ending to the rate easing.
Keen projected Australian interest rates at zero pct.
Keen also projected a major property collapse for Australia.
We have so far seen the opposite effect in fact a rise of 5% in some major Australian cities.
Of course he can keep on predicting these outcomes like most extremists do.
Moving trameframes and inventing excuses.
Eventually people will dismiss them until the next downcycle presents itself and we start all over again with negativity and the media hype.
Hopefully the superbears have gone back into hibernation.
Speaking of which.. Where is one of my favourite sparring partners "Bullturnedbear"?
Head stuck in the honey jar ? |
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By: jaymarcel
20/07/2009
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Fair comment menta, we are yet to see the crash in housing values. But the other way to look at it is we have avoided a crash in housing values this time around & the recent drops of 5%-10% could be the only blip we see this time around.
Only time will tell as the FHOG comes to an end, or will it?
You never know what old Kev may have up his sleeve. |
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By: jaymarcel
20/07/2009
10:26 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Struggling to get a girl are you King, not surprised based on your sad existance. Saturday 3am I would have been enjoying my girlfriend around that time. |
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By: lasty49
20/07/2009
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Kingat33,
"It says Saturday 3am and I'm just back from clubbing. At least I have real friends unlike u having imaginary friends eg lasty."
You for got to add after "I'm just back from clubbing", Chemically enhanced. |
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By: lasty49
20/07/2009
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Menta,
"The property bulls fail to see the big picture. We are yet to see 'the crash' in Australia's housing values. At this stage we have only experienced the early phase in a bear market that will play out over several more years. Our debt unwinding will see sustained declines in real estate over a prolonged period."
I think "Property Bulls" clearly see the big picture.They have taken advantage of govt grants and low interest rates to purchase shelter.
There has been a load of bad news and overseas property comparisons yet certain sectors of the property market have made remarkable gains,upon anyones expectations. |
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By: kingat33
20/07/2009
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| Offending people? why use plural when there is only one person and that is u, jay the fraudster. Look at the time, it says Saturday 3am and I'm just back from clubbing. At least I have real friends unlike u having imaginary friends eg lasty. Hahaha. |
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By: jaymarcel
20/07/2009
8:28 am Yahoo! Profile:
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If the best you can do King is come up with an answer like that you really are scr@ping the bottom of the barrel for offending people on here.
I see your on here at 3am saturday morning what an interesting life you must have. |
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By: kingat33
18/07/2009
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| Get a life Jay or Lasty or whoever u r. Hate talking to someone with split personalities and I'm not the only one that see through what a fraud u r. Enjoy ur conversation with urself this weekend as well. Period. |
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By: mentawaisurf
17/07/2009
3:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| The property bulls fail to see the big picture. We are yet to see 'the crash' in Australia's housing values. At this stage we have only experienced the early phase in a bear market that will play out over several more years. Our debt unwinding will see sustained declines in real estate over a prolonged period. |
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By: jaymarcel
17/07/2009
3:49 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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King, Don't know why your getting so excited & carried away then.
If your not bothered give it up & come back with some valuable chat.
I don't come on these forums to try & make people look bad or to get wound up, it's about enjoying other peoples views & voicing your own opinion.
Anyway I hope you all have a great weekend, I'm off to the beach for a couple of days with the missus. |
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By: kingat33
17/07/2009
11:29 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Won an argument, U guys are kids having school holiday or what, won a prize or something? Come on get real. Get a job or something n to tell me that u won an argument in the internet is simply childish and moronic. Grow up kids and having argument with me on the net, geez I dun even know u guys. Dun u guys feel stupid at all? Either u take ur medications now or get a job and face the real world. |
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By: firefly_au
17/07/2009
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Hello King33:)
Come on mate they have won the argument for the moment, bow out gracefully :) And come back to argue another day!
BYE :) |
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By: kingat33
17/07/2009
10:34 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Bet Jay n Lasty's face been rub so hard by something smelly that whatever that comes out from Jay's mouth stinks. Fraudster! |
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By: lasty49
17/07/2009
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Jay,
Kingat33 and Little Fuzz, 2 of Professor Keen's prodigies.
What else do you expect, haha. |
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By: jaymarcel
17/07/2009
9:31 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Not my best deal firefly, but one just to rub it into Kingat33's face.
And you are correct firefly, its funny how some of these guys turn nasty when they see others doing well. I just wish they would ask questions to help them financially in future like I have done on here in relation to the sharemarket & other investments, I am very interested in gold, may have a search online today to see if I can be tempted.
You guys have enlightened me towards the sharemarket a bit more recently, especially as there appears to be some great prices in the sharemarket out there right now. |
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By: kingat33
17/07/2009
9:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| You're a fraud Jay. I dun associate with sicko! Seek help dude whoever u r! |
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By: firefly_au
17/07/2009
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Hi Jay :)
Well done mate! not bad at all on the GIN GIN property!
One day I hope to convince you to pass on your on how to do the property investment bit without getting taken for a ride by a shyster.
I see you now are getting accused of being a puppet of Lasty now is it? - this is really sad! It is the method often used to try to discredit another poster when they can't win a point in an argument he he :)
BYE :) |
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By: jaymarcel
17/07/2009
8:28 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| For some reason a space has been added after the g in the second gin, just delete this & the link is fine. |
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By: jaymarcel
17/07/2009
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Kingat33, You are but a fool that is obvious, you are the true dreamer that will achieve nothing in life.
This is an article on just one are I bought a couple of years back, I bought 62 acres for $40,000.
http://www.news-mail.com.au/story/2009/04/09/gin-g in-land-prices-soar/
As you you can see this is a fairly recent article, after the so called crash, I personally don't think it was a bad purchase.
How did your $40,000 investment go? |
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By: jaymarcel
17/07/2009
7:40 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Still waiting for an intelligent entry from some of you guys. |
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By: briaaan2003
16/07/2009
7:56 pm |
Message deleted. |
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