By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
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| so the borrowing figures being released out there are not always a negative signal, we all borrow & add to the statistics the important part is what the borrowed money is being spent on & if the borrower can pay it back. |
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By: ang101000
14/10/2009
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Hi Jay,
Yes, sometimes I use the banks money to invest. I like to live on the edge, take calculated risks, chase high risk _ high return investments.
My partner is my exact opposite, hence our joint investments are much more conservative. He is the brain in the household, he is a genius compared to me (and most people).
In regards to elliotwave, I need to know and understand the philosophy and mental model much more before forming an educated opinion.
(Today I am on Chinese word processor, can't type well) |
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By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
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| Menta please don't take offense to my statements I am just making an observation. The arguements are still justified even if I believe the figures are a little twisted to fit a scenario |
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By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
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| For me elliott & pretcher are just another media outlet that twists the figures to fit their 'glass half empty views', I personally am not open to seminar style brain washing. |
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By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
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Hi Ang, sorry to ask individual questions but I'm just trying to understand your stance on debt/investment.
So in order to get where you are today have you never been in debt?
Stupid? It is obvious you don't fit in that category going on your entries here. |
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By: firefly_au
13/10/2009
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Hi Ang :)
Thanks for your forbearance and humour on the personal question. I have been on the road and out of town today so am only now able to respond to your earlier posts:)
I have a couple of comments after reading the cut and thrust of today's posts.
The way the ASX has been struggling to breach the 4800 resistance level we could be holding our breath for a while! I think I will have a party when it finally breaks through he he :)
Are you kidding - what's with the blonde woman bit? It is obvious you are very intelligent and al-round good value to all!
I have just one problem with Elliot Wave charts and analysis - everyone I have seen try to do it invariably get the price movement wrong on a number of occasions and so usually have to chart and analyse and repeatedly before they manage to pick an odd price movement correctly! IMO this is like arbitrarily saying the price will rally today and if it doesn't repeat the prediction continuously - eventually the prediction will be right - but it won't be particularly useful IMO :)
On the up side it does require a greater level of discipline than just intuition and pot luck. But I must admit I am not a big fan of the Elliot Wave Analysis from the results in real time I have seen. Is your experience with it more positive Ang?
Like you I am also guilty as charged investing in Equities and property while doing it without debt. Probably for the same reason you are - There is no other viable way currently available to effectively invest and receive a reasonable tax effective return.
Like you I have always enjoyed reading both the posts of Lasty Menta and Al so always try to take the time to read them when I can!
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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Menta,
I value your views and opinions very highly. The reason I did not want to post anything is: to have more time to read all Prechters (and others) work, which I am not so familiar with.
Also, I hate being the token 'stupid/blond' women on this site. He he |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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Ecchi,
'Every time an isue is raisaed he attempts to deflect the question by referring to another article quoting someone elses opinion.'
I know how you feel! He, Menta will send you to elliotwave to read some of their analysis and that is a problem. To be a contrarian (to understand elliotwave) you need to re-learn a lot of the things that you thought you know. It is hard when one is not aware of his/her bounded rationality.
Ecchi, honestly I don't know Menta, merely trying to learn to think as he does. Perhaps, you should ask him more questions about his economic outlook. |
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By: mentawaisurf
13/10/2009
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| That's right Ang, it challenges all our pre-conceived ideas and assumptions and really is a totally different way of looking at things. That's why the mainstream can't see what's coming. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
13/10/2009
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Honestly Ang, Menta might be able to understand the articles he reads but I am yet o see hi demonstrate any ability to critially analyse the validity of those articles. Every time an isue is raisaed he attempts to deflect the question by referring to another article quoting someone elses opinion.
All of these articles have underlying assumptions and basic principles. If someone doesn't understand those then they are merely learning how to cast a fishing line with no hook. |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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Ecchi,
When you argue with Menta, you have to speak his investment language ie bear language. Also, you need to be familiar with Prechters work and elliotwave.
Let me tell you, I have spent the weekend reading (and drawing charts) The Major Works of R N Elliott. Menta is in class by himself, I am trying to understand him and his views.
Mate, Elliotts principles of investing are really testing for my animal brain, I don't think I will ever be a true contrarian bear.
You are on the track with pointing out the economic fallacies such as market equilibrium, rationality etc. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
13/10/2009
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| If I am missing the crux of the arguement please point me in the right area. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
13/10/2009
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| Ang, from what I read they are ignoring te principal of elasticity in supply and demand. Elasticity of supply and demand allows for supply, demand, or both to be the primary drivers of price but at the end of the day price is determined where both meet. Think aboutit conceptually, price (a sale) cannot exist without a buyer (demand) AND a seller (supply), just because one party determined the value of the transaction does not mean both were not present. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
13/10/2009
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| Ang, first thing I note is the reference to irrationality. This is not new to economic theory if I can refer you to the concept of value adding, an often irrational arbitrary figure. |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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Ecchi,
"This is based on the flawed assumption that supply and demand (economic theory) sets all prices."
I have uploaded a short file for you, which explains/underlines Mentas view regarding his assumption. Please read it, than argue if you still want to.
link
http://ifile.it/krq0cyx |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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Menta,
I am with you, the difference in our views are merely cosmetic. I follow all your writing, and read 2x times as much as I comment. Trust me, I do understand every one of your arguments.
Ang |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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Jay,
I am a stupid, old woman who does invest indeed in shares, housing etc. Pleading guilty, Your Honour!
But I don't have debts, following the mantra; 'you can't go bankrupt if you don't have debts'.
Sorry to shutter all illusions. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
13/10/2009
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| Menta, irrelevant. You used an article about 1 in 6 australians struggling with debt in general to justify your speil about housing prices. The only way you can link the 2 is by making assumptions which could very easily be wrong. |
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By: mentawaisurf
13/10/2009
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Pete, Ang & I already posted links to the figures & charts showing Australia's record household debt levels. Credit card debt is merely the hidden problem (due to Australia being one of the few countries in the world that does not employ credit reporting) and is a leading indicator of default behaviour.
And I suppose oil surged to almost US$150/barrel last year on supply and demand concerns only - not speculation? |
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By: jaymarcel
13/10/2009
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| Fair comment ang, are you blaming gov or private investment for the situation that has arised |
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By: jaymarcel
13/10/2009
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| Hi ang are you a member of the herd you talk of? |
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By: ang101000
13/10/2009
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'The top of the list - countries that actually produce more than they consume, either through manufacturing, via sovereign ownership of resources or just plain good business acumen.'
Check again the top countries; you will find that some like Germany are manufacturing countries and they have the same/similar wage conditions as Aus. Others, like the oil states rely on their resources but are not as indebted as Aus. And finally, there is Singapore who has just plain good business acumen.
My point being; I don't want the private debt invested in stupid Ponzi schemes ie housing and shares (mainly). |
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By: jaymarcel
13/10/2009
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| It appears to me everyone is now searching for a reason for house prices to fall, in 10 years time we could look back & think that property prices of 2009 were undervalued, a bit like when everyone told me in 2005 that house prices where at their peak yet they have continued to rise. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
13/10/2009
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"allowing me to claim my top bracket tax back through negative gearing,"
Look for this to become a bigger influence on housing prices as the government is toying with the idea of increasing the marginal tax rates again. |
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By: jaymarcel
13/10/2009
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Hi Menta, Rather than looking at it as me trying to use the demand/supply arguement to support house price rises I would rather the arguement of what will cause the house prices to fall as I have yet to be given a reason for a fall that can be justified.
For me personally house prices rising with inflation alone is enough if someone renting it & paying the mortgage also allowing me to claim my top bracket tax back through negative gearing, as if the money was left in the bank I'd spend it all on unnecessary items & wasted |
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