By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
16/10/2009
11:35 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang
When you get around to reading these again, what about leverage? I earn $67,000 from a salary. (plus rental income plus market gains). I owe $450,000. For every 100 I earn I owe 670. This does not worry me because the value I have gained is now more than double the debt. When you throw mortgages into this debt equation, it makes the debt ratios meaningless if the assets are appreciating.
I would be more concerned about credit card and unsecured debt figures.
Al |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
16/10/2009
11:18 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"basically cut and paste straight off the debt watch website"
Call me colourful but I like to refer to it as regurgitating :) |
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By: ang101000
16/10/2009
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Jay,
have you heard about the wonderful world of compounding interest? Just when I try to simplify ideas they end up more complicated. (I really have to go now.)
Bye,
Ang |
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By: jaymarcel
16/10/2009
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| So ang does that translate to, if I earn $100 an hour I have spent and so owe $145 in that same hour or have I earnt $100 in that hour & can pay the $145 off over 25 years? |
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By: ang101000
16/10/2009
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Where are you billy.holliday when we need you?
Give us a sign that you are alive and still kicking ...
I will be off now,
Ang |
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By: ang101000
16/10/2009
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Hi Rituals,
here is the message from that site in one short line:
For every $100 that we (Aussies) earn, we owe $145. Simple really, isn't it.
Menta has a purpose on this site: he is the only true contrarian on this site. So when you filling exuberant about your investments, start reading Mentas comments, it will bring you down to Earth. |
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By: rstuarts2000
16/10/2009
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| I have noticed that a significant quantity of the material menta has posted here uses the same language construct and catch cry's as Keen (basically cut and paste straight off the debt watch website). |
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By: jaymarcel
15/10/2009
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| No ang steve would only be on here if he got paid for it |
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By: ang101000
15/10/2009
12:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Rstuarts,
'menta, are you steve keen?'
Perhaps you could ask Steve Keen if he is a surfer? |
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By: jaymarcel
15/10/2009
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Menta is the article debt watch no.33?
I also read 'when herds collide on yellow brick road', again the reason I don't usually go to the debt watch website is the constant looking for a reason for house prices to fall & the yellow brick road article did the usual thing, he repeatedly compares Oz & USA housing prices then finishes up with '& this is why australian property has to fall'.
The USA lending & debt situation around property is totally different to Australias so why bother doing comparisons?
Its like doing comparisons of my finances to my neighbours, yet both of our situations a hugely different & yet making an assumption(a steve keen favourite).
I find it interesting that australia has over 800,000 empty houses (not sure if I got this figure correct), whatever the reason for this being the case for this to cause a property market crash they would all have to be put on the market at the same time, even if the figure is true it is an irrelevant one. |
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By: jaymarcel
15/10/2009
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| Menta I think Keen is too busy selling books to pay his rent, I'm heading over to read his housing shortage lie article, I will be back soon. |
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By: jtleeoz
14/10/2009
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Its been a few months since I've visited here.
My post is not directed at anyone in particular, just my 2 cents worth.
I recall about 6 months ago one of those preaching doom and gloom announced that house prices in Australia were going to crash in 3 months and that we would get a big shock when it happened... No price crash 3 months ago and now we are looking at an upswing. That should prove how unfounded their claims have been. Honestly don't listen to their rhetoric.
I told 1st homebuyers to make use of the boost while they had the chance. Now its halved and soon to be gone. Meanwhile prices are rising. If you listened to the doomsdayers than I am very sorry for you because now houses are even more unaffordable but there's still time before houses rise the predicted 20% over the next 3 years. As I've said before, make use of the boost while it lasts. I am only saying this for your own good. I bought an apartment early this year and got the full $25000 (South Australia gives an extra $4000 for 1st homebuyers under $400k).
For those who need proof of prices rising check out http://www.rpdata.com/ and these show quarterly rises which means the yearly rise will be even more. |
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By: firefly_au
14/10/2009
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LOL Ang :)
So true - the problem is we all want to use statistics and straight forward computation to predict an inherently non-linear chaotic system - and with our current tools it just can not be reliably done!
Another such system is the weather and when the BOM folks can get that right in the local and micro level reliably we can then look to do it for the economy on a micro and local level too :)
Enjoy you time off line it has been a real pleasure reading your posts - See you :) |
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By: ang101000
14/10/2009
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Hi All,
Since I will be off line, here is my blurb about economic prediction based on statistics(in general as opposed to Keens prediction). Have fun and enjoy my wicked humour.
Seventeenth-century Europe was a place of great religious ferment. Theological differences between the various Christian churches and sects were often magnified into issues involving life and death. A belief common to many of the protagonists was that their opponents either were, or had the potential to become, the Antichrist. Some very considerable intellects, along with many others of lesser calibre, applied themselves to the problem of identifying either whether Antichrist had actually appeared already, or was about to appear.
A technique which was used widely in this investigation was the so_called 'science' of numerology. Scholars would look carefully for coincidences in the appearance of sequences of numbers, searching for clues to identify Antichrist's appearance on Earth. Many predictions were made that he had in fact appeared. But since his appearance is prophesied to bring about a reign of dreadful terror and chaos, more thoughtful minds began to question whether this was in fact the case. Indeed, they began to wonder whether the discipline of numerology had any value whatsoever.
In 1960, John Owen, Chancellor of Oxford University, went so far as to state: 'Take heed of computation! How woefully and wretchedly we have been misled by it.' (Ormerod) |
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By: ang101000
14/10/2009
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Menta and Ecchi,
Please don't be offended by the idiotic comments made by me.
I think, it is fair to provide the link to the original data (which is so often cited by Keen and others) for all of you who are concerned with the validity of the data. So here is the link for the full census report:
http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/sa/housing/pubs/housing/ national_housing_supply/Documents/chap4.htm
With no disrespect to anybody,
Angela |
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By: mentawaisurf
14/10/2009
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It seems like I missed all the fun this arvo.
rstuarts, I don't think Keen would have the time or the inclination to engage in this blog. No disrespect to those here, but he has bigger fish to fry. He does however often respond to comments submitted on his Debt Watch website.
Whether you agree or not with the comments and the figures in 'The Housing Shortage Lie' article, it does show that those who place such emphasis on Australia's supposed housing shortage being the reason why our housing market can't collapse are doing so based on a highly dubious assumption. That was the point of my post. |
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By: rstuarts2000
14/10/2009
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| menta, are you steve keen? |
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By: ang101000
14/10/2009
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Ecchi,
The part of "one nights data" was aimed at those who cite those figures as fact...
Ecchi, I agree with you; no male would marry a female based on a one night stand! (I am trying hard to translate economics to plain English for a male audience. He he)
Now, that is the last of my silly comments, today.) |
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By: firefly_au
14/10/2009
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Hello Ang:)
I think I just saw a polka dot pig fly across the blue moon out there LOL :)
BYE :) |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
14/10/2009
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"Ecchi,
lighten up, nobody in his or her right mind writes a theory based on one nights data (census 2006) and expects to be taken seriously.
As I wrote before, look at all the evidence, do your own research and think your own thoughts. University is only teaching you how to think not what you should think!"
Ang, what part of thaas intended for me?
I didn't produce the article trying to use concencus data to find flaws in the housing shortfall claims
I continually remind people about the things they are overlooking when using statistics
I thought teaching you how to think was more important that teaching you what to think. lol |
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By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
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| Bugger just as this was getting interesting I've gotta go, see you all tommorrow |
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By: ang101000
14/10/2009
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Firefly,
I will start pole dancing as soon Menta starts walking the bridge in a tutu, Lasty enrolls to Keens economic class, you get out of shares and put all your money in a housing pyramid, Jay learns to speak Bahasa Malay, Al starts to believe that Glen Steven is the semi_God of interest rates, etc
So, it wont be long from now...(: |
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By: firefly_au
14/10/2009
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Hi All:)
The ASX broke the 4800 resistance level today and when I last looked it was still going north. I am going to break out the Bourbon for a celebratory tipple when I get home :)
BYE :) |
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By: firefly_au
14/10/2009
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Hi Ang :)
LOL:)
let me know if you start doing pole dancing to predict the market - I would love to come and watch he he :)
My you are all funny today :)
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
14/10/2009
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Ecchi,
lighten up, nobody in his or her right mind writes a theory based on one nights data (census 2006) and expects to be taken seriously.
As I wrote before, look at all the evidence, do your own research and think your own thoughts. University is only teaching you how to think not what you should think! |
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