By: etfmate
26/10/2009
4:30 pm Yahoo! Profile:
etfmate Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Have a look at http://kineticsglobal.com/economist/.
They also believe the RBA is wrong and that we are in a new world of economics in which Asia will dominate and Australia's Geogrphic location will be key to our success |
|
By: lasty49
14/10/2009
11:15 am Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Like most data the accuracy is questionable however what should be observed is the trend/direction and not one off figures. |
|
By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
11:11 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
They are not in the official figures for a reason, thay are not official.
We need to look at the officail figures that are recognised when looking at statistics.
So far it looks like we have got through this crisis with the best possible outcome so as far as I can see it the gov & rba response since the beginning has been correct. Unless anyone else out there can think of a better outcome for australia than the current one. |
|
By: mentawaisurf
14/10/2009
10:54 am Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Are we supposed to believe that the surge in full-time workers who have been placed on part-time, casual and contract work (the hidden wave of under-employed who do not show up in the official figures) have an attitude problem too?
And what about those who were sacked and are temporarily living off their redundancy packages, or those 'sent' on annual leave or indeed those who have given up looking for work because they just can't find a job (thereby not recorded in the official figures either)? |
|
By: jaymarcel
14/10/2009
10:21 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Contrtrad, the problem is you can't make changes to the interest rates based on one group of people or one set of figures.
The other problem is youth unemployment is an attitude problem with the youth of today. |
|
By: contratrad
13/10/2009
8:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
contratrad Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hello Everyone,I Heard Figures To day which indicate that Youth unemployment had increased from 12 % to 18 % during the last Year.
It is obvious that Mr. Glen Stevens and his Cohorts have not given these Figures any consideration when announcing the they had 'Rubber stamped' the recent Term Deposit etc. Interest Rate increases by the Banks etc. and because Mr Glen Stevens and his Cohorts cannot stand up and say NO to their Banking 'Friends' wanting to increase Interest Rates, Mr. Glen Stevens be sacked.
A very concerned
Contra. |
|
By: mentawaisurf
9/10/2009
5:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Keep a close eye on treasury yields to predict what our RBA will do with interest rates moving forward. |
|
By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
7/10/2009
1:05 pm Yahoo! Profile:
almurrie1@y7mail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hate him or love him - Lyndon LaRouche said the banks were bankrupt at the start of 2007. I missed out on about 15% of the market rise by taking his news as truth and getting out, but then missed 100% of the drop! Everyone else laughed at me, but I have now picked up a 30% gain, while everyone else is still trying to recover some of their loss.
Wikipedia
2007: LaRouche on the financial crisis
Russian economist Menshikov wrote that, in a July 25, 2007 webcast,[140] LaRouche was the first to observe disorder in the mortgage sector and to conclude that the financial system was crumbling.[131] LaRouche subsequently proposed legislation, the "Homeowners and Banks Protection Act of 2007",[141] to halt foreclosures, freeze mortgage rates, and write off speculative debt obligations. Menshikov asserted that the proposal could have prevented the crisis had it been enacted. According to a LaRouche PAC release, over 100 cities and several states passed resolutions in support of the bill.[142]
Al |
|
By: mentawaisurf
7/10/2009
12:45 pm Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Illusion of Control: Central Banks and Interest Rates;
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/20 09/10/06/Illusion-of-Control-Central-Banks-and-Int erest-Rates.aspx
Central banks do not lead the market or control interest rates, they merely follow the market. |
|
By: mentawaisurf
7/10/2009
12:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi Jay, whether the next more severe wave of the GFC is triggered by defaults in the housing bubbles of Eastern Europe or the Baltic's (largely financed by French, German & Swiss banks) or commercial property loans ($2 trillion needing refinancing) or a wave of Alt-A, ARM & even prime mortgage defaults leading to more bank collapses in the US or the bursting of China's asset bubbles or the implosion of a precarious and arcane derivatives market (especially the volatile and unregulated $60 trillion CDS 'house of cards') or for some other 'unforeseen' reason. Regardless of the 'reason' given for a renewed crisis, governments will be critically limited by how much more private debt they will be 'allowed' to convert into public debt (ie. people's tolerance for allowing governments to further mortgage their futures). Governments around the world have already been forced to absorb trillions in private bad debt during the initial phase of the GFC. Crucially, voters will forcefully object to another even bigger round of bank bail-outs which will severely restrict and delay all efforts by governments to stem the collapse of banks globally. The deflation has barely begun.
There was only one market forecaster, who naturally does not prescribe to 'conventional economic wisdom', who not only saw the initial crisis coming they even warned of its exact steps. And again they are warning of the next step in this unfolding bear market; www.elliottwave.com |
|
By: jaymarcel
7/10/2009
7:10 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi Menta, Where is the next wave of financial crisis coming from?
And in all honest you must admit nobody saw the last crisis coming. |
|
By: contratrad
6/10/2009
10:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
contratrad Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Well, Everyone he did it , 'Rubber Stamped' the recent increases in Term Deposit etc. Interest Rates by Australia's Banking Cartel.
To day's Interest Rate rise based on Flimsey Figurees which are are a result of panic home buying by some First Home Buyers has taken the Aussie Dollar higher and have and will have a negative effect on many Australian exports and could well cost more Aussie Jobs.
Rudd ,needs to get rid of the 'Dead Wood' and sack Glen Stevens and some of his Cohorts at the RBA soorer rather than later and after all, Glen Stevens was appointed by the previous Coalition Government and look at the way they let Opes Prime and Storm Fin. etc., 'Burn' peoples Money and Homes on the A.S.X..
A very concerned,
Contra. |
|
By: contratrad
6/10/2009
10:25 pm Yahoo! Profile:
contratrad Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Well, Everyone he did it , 'Rubber Stamped' the recent increases in Term Deposit etc. Interest Rates by Australia's Banking Cartel.
To day's Interest Rate rise based on Flimsey Figurees which are are a result of panic home buying by some First Home Buyers has taken the Aussie Dollar higher and have and will have a negative effect on many Australian exports and could well cost more Aussie Jobs.
Rudd ,needs to get rid of the 'Dead Wood' and sack Glen Stevens and some of his Cohorts at the RBA soorer rather than later and after all, Glen Stevens was appointed by the previous Coalition Government and look at the way they let Opes Prime and Storm Fin. etc., 'Burn' peoples Money and Homes the A.S.X..
A very concerned,
Contra. |
|
By: mentawaisurf
6/10/2009
4:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
True to form, the RBA followed script with another inept call by raising interest rates just prior to the next major phase of the unfolding bear market decline. RBA Governor Glenn Steven's just delivered a very upbeat and optimistic outlook for the Australian economy with predicted trend growth (2.5% GDP) through 2010. Reports now read;
"The Reserve Bank of Australia has become the first major central bank in the world to raise interest rates since the onset of the financial crisis, signalling a strong recovery in the economy.
The RBA set rates at 3.25 percent today, up 25 basis points from 3 percent, fuelling a further rally in the dollar as confidence in the Australian economy soared."
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=872047
This is a strong signal that the current bear market rally has peaked. For those with short memories, here's what Glenn Steven's said back in June 2007 - just prior to the initial bear market decline and financial crisis;
"Looking ahead, there does not seem to be a high likelihood of the world economy slowing abruptly in the near term. Hence, the external forces at work will in all likelihood continue to be pretty positive. Australian households overall appear to have plenty of disposable income and the confidence to spend it. Business profits are in good shape, and firms will be well placed to continue their high levels of investment as needed. They are also displaying a strong propensity to borrow, with business credit growth at its highest for nearly two decades."
As the next wave of financial crisis h its we will be told, yet again, "but no one saw it coming..." Don't be fooled again. |
|
By: jaymarcel
6/10/2009
10:54 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Hey lasty I've been looking into this very recently & it looks like anything for rent under $400 a week or over $700 a week the market is flooded. I,m thinking the under $400 is struggling due to this being the first home buyer zone & the over $700 is the exec zone where companies are cutting back. Between $400 & $700 appear to be quality properties aimed at middle aged who long ago made the choice to never rent & once they find a place to call home they rarely move on. |
|
By: lasty49
6/10/2009
10:06 am Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
The risk for higher rates is for those who rent.
Many mortgage holders have locked in their rates at low levels in anticipation of things to come.
With a housing shortage in areas where demand is landlords wont be holding back on rental increase.
Yes there are many properties vacant but not in the areas required.
Unless you want to drive 4 hours a day, pay for petrol, tolls and parking or rely on public transport in areas that are remote, there is a place waiting for you.
Do the sums and weigh up the costs including your time.. |
|
By: mentawaisurf
5/10/2009
5:16 pm Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Given the RBA's history for bad calls, they're likely to lift interest rates just prior to the next wave of crises and further escalating deflation (just as they did in late 2007 thru early 2008);
Aussie up, talk of imminent RBA hike
SYDNEY, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Australian bill futures slid and the dollar gained on Monday as two influential columnists tipped a surprise rise in interest rates this week, a prediction supported by upbeat jobs data.
Bills and interbank futures took a beating as the market narrowed the odds that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lift its 3.0 percent cash rate on Tuesday. The Australian dollar climbed to around $0.8730 AUD, from $0.8651 late in New York on Friday, as the currency's yield advantage over other majors widened yet further.
"The RBA now appears set to lift its cash rate to 3.25 percent tomorrow," said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie, pointing to a string of robust data.
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=871653 |
|
By: bladerun08
5/10/2009
12:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
bladerun08 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| does anyone else get the feeling that the powers that be (PTB) are using "band aids" to fix the economy, global warming, and globalisation? Avoiding major surgery, just keep the stock exchange alive for a few more years... |
|
By: jaymarcel
5/10/2009
12:24 pm Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi ecchi, That's right, to me unaffordability is not a reason as if they were unaffordable people would not still be buying like they are.
For starters we should be looking at the average wage but the cheapest house price as a formula as by the time someone is ready to buy at the average house price they already have equity in the home so are not borrowing the majority of the money to purchase & are well into their career & so are above the average wage.
I am more concerned at the house price rise due to the supply/demand issue which is getting worse & is only just taking effect with the prices, it doesn't look good for the future FHB, the so called bubble shouldn't pop until we sort this issue out. |
|
By: ecchi.gaijin
5/10/2009
11:48 am Yahoo! Profile:
ecchi.gaijin Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
"I don't think anyone on these forums has given a reason as to why they should fall "
Unaffordability has often been given as the reason why prices should fall, but I am yet to see anyone state what will cause this fall. Things don't just happen for the hell of it, there needs to be a catalyst. |
|
By: d.farrer
5/10/2009
11:06 am Yahoo! Profile:
d.farrer Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Good Point. This is the guy (Stevens) that was putting interest rates up last year when the economy was actually starting to decline. And what did he say about mortgage stress? "People will just have to live with it".........Sack him now! |
|
By: jaymarcel
5/10/2009
8:34 am Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi Menta, we all have a way of working out our home finances, for me I always work my figures out with the oz interest rate at 9% with a chance of going to 10% so right now things are pretty good. I would assume anyone in a position to buy a house would also have the intelligence to factor in some sort of rate rise, I still struggle to see why Australian property should fall, there is no reason for it, I don't think anyone on these forums has given a reason as to why they should fall but there are a list of reasons for them to rise. Sorry for the rose tinted glasses on property I'm just saying it as I see it.
I still think bad news will come in for the next six months & that bad news will be 3 months old so in six months time we will really know what is happening with the unemployment figures which seems to be the only small risk to property. By then I am happy to assume the property market will be a sellers market & astute investors would have left it too late. |
|
By: tworodoz
3/10/2009
12:30 pm Yahoo! Profile:
tworodoz Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Many could see the GFC coming. Unfortunately the RBA were too busy spouting Rudd and Swans mantra about the inflation genie to notice. They still seem to be. Many would think that these highly influential people know more than us in the street. Well they do not and may as well read tea leaves or tarot cards. Perhaps they do.
I feel they all should have resigned long ago for getting it so very very wrong. |
|
By: contratrad
2/10/2009
9:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
contratrad Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hello Everyone and thanks for Your input,Glen doesn't seem to have considered many things like the First home Buyers assistance is now tappering off and the effect that this Years School Leavers are going to have on the Unemployment.
Glen is incompentent, and he needs to be sacked.
A very concerned ,
moly |
|
By: mentawaisurf
2/10/2009
11:44 am Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Jay, it's infinitely more crucial to educate FHBs not to be lured by the FHOG bribe and heavily mortgage themselves into a housing bubble that the government is doing all it can to keep inflated. As for interest rates, contrary to what everyone seems conditioned to believe due to the false assumptions of our economists, they're coming down next year as the RBA follows the market. |
|
