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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation

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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
11:29 am

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  jaymarcel

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
I agree with you an "I'm right your wrong" arguement is always a little pointless & as a rule regulars on here put up a good discussion for their point of view including menta, I can not answer for menta so do not know his reasoning for holding back on answers sometimes, perhaps it is just that being wrong on a call entered on this forum can not be forgotten. We can not all always be right & sometime make a statement on the info available or an opinion at that moment in time & some on here do not accept that views & opinions can change from an individual.

By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
11:18 am

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  jaymarcel

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Hi troubador, my statement was in noway intended at one individual

By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
11:15 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Hi hd, very good but the question is can gold maintain this lead over property, also which do you think had the biggest risk at the time of your dates given?
Are you a believer that gold basically does the opposite to the US dollar & if that is the case it sounds like a very risky investment now, still even riskier than houses in my point of view.

By: troubador35
6/11/2009
11:13 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
correction to my last post. I of course meant "germane". It appears I have the lovely Germaine Greer on my mind.

By: troubador35
6/11/2009
11:11 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Oh, did I forget to mention that I thought yesterdays posts by warren and pwaldons wer germain to the subject? How neglectful of me.

I felt they were particularly germain because they were finally able to get a resolution to a question. The question was, "If we are going into deflationary times, where is the safest place for our cash". Mentawaysurf finally answered the question. Is that fair enough?

By: troubador35
6/11/2009
11:07 am

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  troubador35

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Jaymarcel, were you addressing your comments to me? If you are, your comments are perplexing. Perplexing because I don't think I used the word "rubbish" once in my post. I also don't think I used the word "boring" in my post. Those are words that you used. Not me.

As to your glib phrase, "if you don't like it, leave...", is that a version of "my country right or wrong, if you don't like it here, go someplace else"?

I simply think the more the merrier on any forum! All too often forums fall into the doldrums and it happens to be my opinion that this one has. Evidentaly, you don't agree and find this to be an already exciting, informative and enlightening place. Good for you. Perhaps the contributions of people like Warren and others will also make it an entertaining place. Now, there's nothing wrong with being entertained while you're doing all that heavy learning, is there Jay?

By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
10:47 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Well I'm relatively new to this forum (just a few months now) & enjoy the little battle, I also find there is some learning to be had from here in respect to other peoples views/opinions.
But the entries I am most confused with is of some who come on here to say how rubbish the forum is, it's pretty simple if you don't like it leave, the rest of us are on here because we enjoy the interaction with others on the subject in question, if you are not then don't type anything just go elsewhere. Surely your life is not so boring that you just jump between forums making entries on how you don't like the forum.

By: troubador35
6/11/2009
10:32 am

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By: warren_b96
6/11/2009
10:06 am

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By: warren_b96
6/11/2009
9:54 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
"your postings are a credit to your ability to write c r a p . Recognition, is that what you were after?"


And what do you call the above? Intelligent, sensitive, well thought out and provacatively enlightened criticism? You're a self righteous moron.

By: ang101000
6/11/2009
8:43 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Hi Warren and Pwaldans,

Could you please keep your personal attacks to a minimum and add some value to the debate.

I must admit, your postings are a credit to your ability to write c r a p . Recognition, is that what you were after?

Here, you have it, now try harder.

By: akdoc1
6/11/2009
8:29 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Jay; Towns like Bundy are growning, yes but don't you ever travel up central highways? This is what I was talking about people who are not affected don't notice the smaller places. A few months ago I stopped for lunch at one place that used to have about 6 meal places a few years ago only one shop is still going. I also said why prices have gone up and for cheap imports your importing another countries deflated prices. Computer and car prices have devalued not just because of cheaper production but because the salesmen can't sell them, why do you think government is offering 50% tax breaks to hold up car prices. This is deflation hitting you in the face and you still can't see it. Deflation is taking place when retailers drop prices to stay in business and it is happening Australia wide, they are not cutting prices out of the goodness of their hearts. Deflation is not happening across the board, companies that monopolise sectors can still force prices up, areas gaining from mining boom see prices rises because people have money to spend or good credit ratings. Deflation is never a problem for the average joe until they lose their job through it, so it is hard to see.

By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
7:23 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Hi Akdoc, But if deflation has been happening for many years why have most things gone up in price?
Most of the country towns here in queensland are growing, not shuting down so perhaps your findings are local to you.
The only things that have gone down in price are items that have become cheaper to produce such as computers, cars & tvs. Which to me is a good thing & not a sign of deflation, but a sign of true price being passed onto the consumer.

By: akdoc1
6/11/2009
6:45 am

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Thanks Ang; big difference between me and Menta is Menta sees global deflation as some thing in the future. I see it as being already active for many years, Australia has all the signs low farm gate prices and in many country towns half the high street shops have been closed down for a long time. However because of the monoliptic nature of Australian businesses and past governments fear of reccessions prices have been kept inflationary. With overseas competition taking the blame for business failures that possibly resulted from deflationary pressures especially in country areas. Deflation in Australia through not affecting main business centres has just been ignored and will remain so until as I believe Menta put it "the sh##t hits the fan".

By: pegasus2203
5/11/2009
10:09 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
pwaldons
I don't like you attack people that way.

By: pegasus2203
5/11/2009
10:00 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Hello Menta,perception_now and Ang!

I enjoy reading your quaulity post .
I don't know if you have watched tonight's ABC 8:30pm program "Addicted to Money" such a good one.

I would like to tell everyone to keep watch it next Thursday(part II) and the week after(partIII)

By: pwaldons
5/11/2009
8:43 pm

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By: ang101000
5/11/2009
8:21 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Oh Akdoc,
I really-really hope that you get well :).
Thank you very much for your prompt answer. I will not ask questions (for now) but please keep me informed about your health.
If you like any books (to read during recovery) I would be happy to provide links.

All the best for now,
Angela

By: hdmausguy
5/11/2009
6:58 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Gold - Nov 2008 $730oz USD, Nov 2009 $1090oz USD a gain of 49%. How many properties have had a 49% gain in the last 12 months? My prediction Nov.2010 GOLD $2000oz + USD. Gold is only decoupling from the main manipulators(thus the new record high) of all the financial markets,the US FED RESERVE & THE UK CENTRAL BANKS & LME(London Metals exchange).These 2 are the prime culprits for this GFC. There's a lot more to unfold yet.It will go on into next year & for years after that. We have the Ron Paul Sponsored US senate enquiry into the FED to start,audits of Fort Knox(last done in 1968)& other large bullion banks on fears of massive gold shortfalls due to multi selling of the same gold? The biggest problems are lack of transparency & accountability,look at our own reserve bank? Absolute power corrupts etc. The long term manipulation of gold & silver etc has seen it fall well below it's correct true value. A few gold an.al.ysts have put forward an inflation adjusted price of $2650oz USD. A good example of how gold has fallen behind is by comparing golds purchasing power in 1965 on a new fibro project home in western sydney to that same home now(Personal knowledge post divorce) Gold in 1965 was $54oz(adjusted for pounds {L S D} House was $6,000 & needed 111oz gold. That same house now worth $350,000. 111oz x $1090(09 price) = $121,000. A massive $229,000 shortfall = 189%. &/or $350k/111oz = House based gold value per oz = $3153. Gold and precious metals are only playing long overdue catchup.

By: warren_b96
5/11/2009
5:57 pm

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Well now, I AM confused. Just when I thought Mentawaisurf had changed his mind about NAB and the other banks, I find out he thinks the banks are CASINOs!!!! Why would he want us to spend our savings at a CASINO??? Do you think he might secretly own shares in these "casinos" and wants to increase their worth by telling us to deposit our money there?

Well, all I can say is that this is all very peculiar.

By: pwaldons
5/11/2009
5:44 pm

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By: firefly_au
5/11/2009
5:35 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Hi Menta :)

"As I said, it may be close but over coming weeks the resumption of the underlying bear market trend should become apparent to everyone. And If I do fall short, unlike many on this blog, including yourself, I won't ressurect myself as another fake alias."

You may well be right - but heck your fortune telling skills could be as faulty as mine!

So Mate couldn't you just admit you were wrong (if you are) and hope to learn something useful from others on the blog rather than abandon ship like whipped sea dog with your tail between your legs "never to return"? I for one would like you to stick around. As you at least present your arguments well rather than resorting to ridicule and abuse!

BYE :)

By: mentawaisurf
5/11/2009
5:32 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
pwaldons, you're sincerity is touching. As I've said, while banks around the world, and yes even here in Australia, will falter our government will support and keep at least our big-4 banks operating through the tumultuous times ahead.


So warren, pete, ecchi, dave or whatever you are calling yourself, I've answered your question. Now answer mine. How many aliases do you go by?

By: warren_b96
5/11/2009
5:25 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
Thank you Pwaldans!!! How did you do it? You must have the touch! I was going to test my luck by asking Menta how long the deflationary cycle would last but nah.... Not worth it.

By: glh40
5/11/2009
5:05 pm

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Re:The Real Threat - Global Deflation Reply to this message
the NAB I thought so...great to hear your thoughts in case I was missing something cheers.
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