By: lasty49
14/09/2009
2:24 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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There were many guys who lost money on the way down simply because they thoughts markets only go one way.
Its not a question of gambling. Far from it.
Its just that many were too lazy to react once the news of the downturn emerged.
Those same people were then advised to go into cash once the carnage happened only to see their investments retrace 50% in value.
Complacency makes money for others not just in shares but in many aspects of life.
Snooze ya loose has been one of the standout sayings since man has inhabited the planet. |
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By: hdmausguy
14/09/2009
2:02 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| akdoc - from time to time I see posts such as yours comparing stock market investing to gambling (casinos,horse/dog racing,poker machines & lotto etc.) In reality these comparisons don't stack up. In gambling on any bet that loses the loss is 100%,you've done your dough. The odds are always in favour of the bet provider. This is extremely obvious with healthy TAB & Casino/lotto profits. In comparison stock market shares,in the vast majority of cases, may experience a drop in prices but any investor has the opportunity to set a bail out position (stop loss,as they should). Lets say an investor has got out with a 15% loss. That investor still has 85% of his/her capital. Put $1000 on red at roulette and it spins up black,that = 100% Loss. Of course there are higher risk investments in CFD's & Forex were leverage gives you wonderful returns on correct choices and large % losses on negative outcomes.I stopped gambling years ago. I never made any net gain,in any one year,from betting,in fact I always finished in the red. With careful share market trading I have finished in the black each year since. By compounding the trades back into the market my assets almost make up my gambling losses and are likely to exceed them in the next 3-6 months. This year I have'nt worked for an employer for the 1st time. A % of the gains that I've made funds my day to day living.The time in trading history is the key. i.e. Big downturn 12 months ago to Jan/Feb this year (many stocks were bargains @ well below true value eg CBA abt. $20 & 7 months later went to $50 plus 2 dividends at higher than fixed investment rates). Not working has given me the time to research investment opportunities and also to have quality time for friends,family and oneself. Companies in the stock market underpin society,just have a look at the top 50,100,200 on the ASX.I don't agree that the stock market is the lagging indicator of the world economic health.All trading charts eg gold react instantly to the market. |
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By: firefly_au
14/09/2009
9:16 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Sorry folks,
I just reread my last post and noticed a couple of typos, "to" should read "Two" and "form 12" should read "from 12" I suspect it may make a bit more sense to some with these substitutions he he :)
Damn this little window they have us type into can make posting difficult at times :)
BYE :) |
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By: firefly_au
14/09/2009
7:51 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Morning akdoc:)
I hope you had a great weekend!
Yes it was a shock to all of the worlds markets! But I believe you may be confusing to things here just a tad!
(1) The stock market does not predict the future it is only a leading economic indicator so when things go unexpectedly wrong due to poor Financial System management the markets are going to be as surprised as anyone. But it will show up there first and then filter through to the real economy!
(2) When a recovery occurs the Stock markets will also show it first! However they will also show a further fall if it occurs first! Then the real economy will follow somewhere form 12 to 18 months later.
So this is my point - The market needs to be watched!
And my counter to your last post - is that if the earth gets unexpectedly hit by a meteor though the stock market won't predict its occurrence it will be the first to show its effect on the economy!
Bye :) |
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By: akdoc1
14/09/2009
6:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Come on firefly; the worlds stock markets are an accurate leading indicator of the health of the worlds economy! The stock markets did not see the crash coming until it hit them in the face, stock markets are no different to casinos, you place your bet and play the game. The stock market follows indicators and the sheep push up the prices. The markets are a lagging indicator of sheep movement and has no relevance at all as an indicator to the worlds economic health. |
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By: toomanyreplies
13/09/2009
11:13 pm |
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By: toomanyreplies
13/09/2009
11:11 pm |
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By: guy.longshank
13/09/2009
10:28 pm |
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By: firefly_au
13/09/2009
8:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello guy.longshank :)
There appears to be two diametrically opposed world views at war here! The posts by either side can become just a tad repetitive but I personally believe this is a consequence of the dirty tricks brigade carrying on like children! Also I have noticed that it gets worse when the kiddies don't have to study so hard due to the weekend or end of term such as now!
I have some advice for anyone looking to this forum to make financial decisions! Don't rely on anything posted here to make your final decision! Use it only to stimulate a line of research then when you are sure what you want to do - think about it again and then only do it because it makes sense to you not because someone here says it's a good idea!
It could be a coincidence but I have notice what could be the effect of people reading what is said here and rushing out to invest based on it when I have watched these equities myself. So you are right we need to be aware that this does happen and take all care but no responsibility as nothing posted here is intended as financial advice!
BYE :) |
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By: toomanyreplies
13/09/2009
8:43 pm |
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By: guy.longshank
13/09/2009
8:15 pm |
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By: firefly_au
13/09/2009
6:04 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi All :)
Unfortunately for some that would wish it otherwise, the worlds stock markets are an accurate leading indicator of the health of the worlds economy! So I believe it bears watching! So far so good but many still believe this has been a bear rally and things are going to fall again soon!
It seems some folks here abouts are really not interested in what may really be happening and so they will need to rely purely on luck! I am reading many opinions stating that they think due to the ongoing problems and run away debt 70% of the worlds economy(USA) is in effect insolvent! If this is indeed true then I seriously believe we are in for a huge correction here in Australia in the next few years! even if it is not a "DISASTER" for many it will feel like one! For the lucky ones of us it will merely very uncomfortable!
SO keep an eye out and good luck!
BYE :) |
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By: zellowmicka
13/09/2009
4:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| I mean just look around the world.. plenty of other countries with bigger problems than Australia - China, Asia, US, EUROPE. And they're all chugging along quite nicely. Australia is heaven in comparison. |
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By: cxo99
13/09/2009
3:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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its not just this website but most media outlets that put out huge quantities of negative news on the world economy during the so called 'GFC' have been churning out huge quantities of positive spin since stock markets staged their dead cat bounce around march.
like most other measures, not including true safe haven indicators, the media spin tends to follow the stock markets performance.
do an overlay of media spin to stock market performance & it appears as nothing more than another gauge to market sentiment. |
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By: tommyknockersbegone
13/09/2009
3:11 pm |
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By: mrpotatoman@ymail.com
13/09/2009
11:29 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Good to have you on board akdoc1,
I agree about the not being able to grow potatoes,I think we need a few more desalination plants around our coastlines.That would fix the problem immediately.Australia could become one enormous foodbowl instead of just a few select regions.
. |
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By: akdoc1
13/09/2009
6:25 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Give me one that can't be disputed, we can't even grow enought potato's in some areas because of drought to keep producing potato men. |
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By: mrpotatoman@ymail.com
13/09/2009
2:19 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello and Welcome
I can think of lots of reasons why Australia will continue to maintain a reasonably secure financial position and I would like to invite other readers to post here with their input. |
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