By: jaymarcel
19/05/2009
10:36 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi bigus1im,
I would be surprised if it was all easy for your parents when they bought their first home, I have met few people that don't have to sacrifice a few things & live with little furniture or so called luxuries (big tv etc).
They would have struggled too it's not only your generation. |
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By: bigus1im
19/05/2009
8:37 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| jt I'm sure nobody wants the economy to dive. I, for one, just want the same opportunity to buy a house that my parents had - I don't want to have to pay 500 grand for a toilet - and if you're looking for vested interests, just look at what the HIA says. You can thank jerks like the Reno Kings for encouraging greedy people to snap-up every cheap home then chuck a can of paint at it and then ask twice as much for it 3 months later. I think most posters are just stating the bleeding obvious - that houses are way overpriced and that anyone that truly believes otherwise is just pulling themself. |
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By: puyi
19/05/2009
2:01 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Sorry, the article was from the Telegraph, not from the Sydney Morning Herald. |
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By: puyi
19/05/2009
1:55 am Yahoo! Profile:
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This article has not been written by me, but:
By Viki Campion, and Xanthe Kleining, of the Sydney Morning Herald, on
May 16, 2009 12:00am
<<IF YOU'VE ever dreamed of that little getaway beside sparkling blue waters but never thought you'd have the cash, think again.
Seaside shacks are being sold cheap as investors desperately try to offload their weekenders along the coast.
Plus - Sydney's multi million dollar homes take a hard hit. See which postcodes are in trouble.
Waterfront mansions are settling for millions less than the asking price after languishing on the market for years, while beach cottages are on offer for as little as $12,000.
An ocean-front luxury estate at Saratoga on the Central Coast sold for $4.65 million this week after waiting 12 months with a $5.5 million price tag.
Shabby beach villas at Bermagui on the South Coast are listed for just $12,000, while two-bedroom holiday homes near the ocean are on the market for the cost of a luxury car.
Real estate agents said the economic downturn hit the weekender market hard. Manors with private jetties and panoramic views can be bought for $1 million while cladded houses, just minutes from the surf, are on offer for $49,000 at Ulladulla.
North Rocks couple Cherryl and Henry Gibson have put their Surfcoast holiday home of 20 years on the market.
"It is the seventh house back from the beach. It is just sitting there not being used," they said.>> |
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By: jtleeoz
19/05/2009
12:58 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Oh... and you've posted another 4 here!!! Puyi, don't you have anything better to do than preach doom and gloom. By the way, I am trying to understand what motivates you to post all these articles on these forums. Do you have a vested interest in ensuring Australia doesn't not come out of the current economic climate in good shape?
My motivation for posting on here was simply to provide an educated balance of opinion because alot of what was written seemed exagarated (I only started noticing these forums because I would click on a Yahoo front page article and couldn't believe that people actually believed that property prices would drop 40~50%! and that "economic disaster looms"). Economic downturn yes, but certainly not economic disaster!
So tell me, what is your motivation for posting all these messages? In fact, Dr.Xingli, Rickyrollins, etc you know who you are, perhaps you can all enlighten us as to what your motivations are. It honestly baffles me. |
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By: puyi
19/05/2009
12:33 am Yahoo! Profile:
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New Zealand House Prices Fall for Tenth Month in April
by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Monday, 11 May 2009 00:23:13 GMT
New Zealand House Prices (calculated based on quoted home values) fell for the tenth consecutive month in April, shrinking at an annual pace of -9.2%. The reading is within a hair of March’s record -9.3% decline, the largest in nearly 4 years. Deepening recession, rising unemployment, and scarce credit access have kept buyers away from big-ticket purchases, sending property values lower. |
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By: puyi
19/05/2009
12:19 am Yahoo! Profile:
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These are a few of the comments made today by readers of a national newspaper:
People really fail to understand what a bubble is. A bubble is full of air, as in the housing market, the price is over inflated. It has achieved this by property development lobby groups who have asked for a bubble called the FHOG. This inflates the true value of the property and the government has been the cause of this. Of course they will not tell you that directly that is why they called it the FHOG so as to help you buy.
Posted by: just the facts mame of melbourne 3:49pm today
I believe it is a terrible time to buy now. Young people are being hoodwinked into thinking that they must buy now at any cost before they miss out. Just about every other county is having dramatic price falls while here in Australia we are told we are different and all will hold at current prices. Make no mistake we will follow the path of USA, Britain, China to name a few.
Posted by: Henry of Perth 3:29pm today
If the FHOG is propping up the low end of the housing market and all other sectors are falling. What do people think is going to happen to the low end when the grant disappears?
Posted by: mike of adelaide 4:23pm today
The Government is using my tax dollars to create a bubble in the economy. We need to deflate all the bubbles in the economy. What is really sad about this, is my tax dollars could have gone into helping people set up businesses instead. When businesses are successful then people have employment and they can pay reasonable prices for their homes. Instead the money is going into making expensive houses more expensive, and there is a wasted opportunity to create jobs and wealth... Sadly the people who will get burnt are the traditional Labor supporters..
Posted by: Willy of Sydney 2:59pm today |
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By: puyi
18/05/2009
11:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The public policy group Demographia:
<<AUSTRALIA is home to three of the most "severely unaffordable housing markets" studied by an international group that predicts the housing bubble here is yet to burst.
A comparison of median house prices with median household incomes in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, Britain and the United States found that Australia had the most cities in the "severely unaffordable" category - where house prices are more than five times the median income.
The Sunshine Coast in Queensland was the least affordable. The Gold Coast came third, behind Honolulu, and Sydney was fifth, behind Vancouver. Melbourne and Adelaide were equal 12th and were still less affordable than New York (14th), London (16th) and Dublin (32nd).
The public policy group Demographia, which conducted the study, said affordability in Australia was worsening relative to Britain, Ireland and New Zealand, where prices had recently collapsed.
Australia would be next, it said. "Sooner or later, the inherent instability that characterises virtually all bubbles will lead to house price declines in Australia."
Alan Moran, director of the deregulation unit at the Institute of Public Affairs, said house prices may have collapsed in Australia over the past few months.
But affordability was a problem, he said. "Adjusted for inflation, the average house price in Australia is now more than twice what it was 20 years ago."
Like Demographia, Mr Moran favours reducing the regulations that govern building in Australia.
"The reason Australia is so expensive is because of the regulatory-induced supply shortage that has pushed up the price of land permitted to be used for housing." |
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By: puyi
18/05/2009
11:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Professor Quentin Grafton of the Australian National University's Crawford School of Economics and Government says Australia's property price bubble is the biggest in the country's history, and one of the biggest in the world.
Posted Thu Apr 30, 2009 5:35pm AEST
Source: ABC News
Economists and property pundits have been shocked by new figures showing further falls in Australian capital city house prices.
Market watchers were expecting house prices to flatten out in the latest quarter, thanks to solid demand from the first home buyers grant and lower interest rates.
But the latest national figures from the ABS show house prices have dived another 2.2 per cent, almost double the decline of the previous quarter. They have fallen by nearly 7 per cent for the year.
ANZ senior economist Katie Dean says economic uncertainty and rising unemployment is affecting housing market sentiment.
"House prices in Australia rarely fall except when we are in a recession so this is certainly another indicator that would indicate that the Australian economy is contracting at the moment," she said.
Ms Dean says it is the worst national fall since the data was first collected in 2002.
"I think what we've seen is that the deterioration in the overall economic environment, and in particular the fall in employment expectations and the rise in the unemployment rate over the last couple of months, is clearly having a big impact on housing market sentiment and that is probably the main factor behind the fall in house prices," she said.
Posted Mon May 4, 2009 4:40pm AEST
Source: ABC News |
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By: jtleeoz
18/05/2009
10:42 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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AUSTRALIA is quite different to the US, UK, NZ, etc but ESPECIALLY U.S.! Why?
The reason the US had a subprime bust but we won't is because we don't have banks that lend over 100% of purchase prices to people who can't afford it (even before the US subprime went bust). Not only that, but in Australia anyone who defaults on their mortgage can't just give the keys back to their lender. Aussie banks & Aussies in general seem to have a lot more sense of responsibility than our US counterparts. Now with that out of the way, if US house prices have dropped 25% then again you take it as pretty much case closed that Aussie house prices on average will NOT drop anywhere near 25% (now remember I said on average so please don't go quoting that there has been drops of 25% in some areas. Even if there has been, the average house drop has been less than 10% which means that some areas have risen 25% or more (ie Darwin and some pockets in every state, in fact here is a list of suburbs that have at least 50% median house price growth in 2008 - FRANKLIN(ACT)58.3%, PEAK HILL(NSW)80.7%, MARLOW LAGOON(NT)76.4%, WINTON(QLD)56.7%, PINNAROO(SA)76.7%, PORT SORELL(TAS)51.7%, WURRUK(VIC)62%).
I could go on but I gotta go do some productive work to help our economy but before I sign off I would like to say that NEWMILLENIUM is a breathe of intelligent fresh air after all these overly negative dooms day predictions. I've said it before and I'll say it again. What we as a nation think and do will determine what we become. In fact I get the feeling that lamkin, rickyrolls, xingli, menta & co (whether different people or the same doesn't matter) who make it their job to preach doom and gloom are part of an agenda by the Chinese or other goverments to undermine our economy so they can buy us out on the cheap. Don't know but I just get this feeling which I hope of course is not true. OZ is a great place to be, lets keep it that way! |
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By: bigus1im
18/05/2009
10:30 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Jeez Dude! Haven't you sold any houses this month? |
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By: jtleeoz
18/05/2009
10:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"A few pointers:
1) The medium drop in WA is over 10%, with specific suburbs over 25% and other states also following.
2) The US already has over 25% medium drop in most states and the fall is continuing.
3) The reasons for the current economic slowdown are NOT the standard end of business cycle factors, nor are they the usual Recession factors."
PERCEPTIONS_NOW
you infer that I have not done my research but I assure you that I have. Remember I just bought my first house earlier this year. I agree that many capitalist nations (or should I say corporations) have been pretty greedy and I don't like banks as much as anyone but unfortunately we all use them don't we? And you have a valid point about Global Climate problems buy these things don't mean that Australia is going into a GREAT DEPRESSION. Let me outline the weakness of your argument:
By quoting WA as dropping 10% you have unwittingly vindicated the truth that there will not be a 40~50% drop in house prices in Australia like some UNRESEARCHED and VERY SELF-OPINIONATED people on Yahoo Forums seem to think OR WANT the uneducated to believe.
Yes WA median prices have dropped the most because they had more of a boom recently than most states. But if WA has only dropped 10% in the last 12 months that means all other states have dropped LESS than 10% and now that prices have stabalised somewhat that throws the HOUSING BUST THEORY out the door, so I don't want to hear anymore of this HOUSING BUST propaganda from anyone again! If you (not you literally but people in general) think that houses prices are going to crash then don't buy a house but then don't complain that you can't afford a house when in a couple of years house prices have risen again.
You then go on to talk about the US houses dropping 25%. People should realise that AUSTRALIA is quite different to the US, UK, NZ, etc but ESPECIALLY U.S.! Why? |
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By: newmilleniumangel
18/05/2009
9:11 pm |
Message deleted. Reason: Breach of terms of service |
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By: lamkinkah
18/05/2009
8:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| newmillen.. You are definitely those the pot calls the kettle bad.so you think you know a lot about real estate..haha.. I think you know nothing at all...you probably better off shut your mouth.. If you cannot accept different opinion, you should leave this forum. btw are you a book seller? or you think that reading a few books will make you an real estate expert..haha.. |
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By: perceptions_now
18/05/2009
6:38 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"to the people who say house prices will drop 40~50% I say "WHAT A JOKE!" go to rpdata.net.au and see for yourself. The only state that has both unit AND house median prices dropping is WA and even then not more than a percent or so"
jtleeoz,
I suggest you do a little more research and see where it leads you.
A few pointers:
1) The medium drop in WA is over 10%, with specific suburbs over 25% and other states also following.
2) The US already has over 25% medium drop in most states and the fall is continuing.
3) The reasons for the current economic slowdown are NOT the standard end of business cycle factors, nor are they the usual Recession factors.
On this occasion there are substantial, structural input differences, including:
1) Population - Baby Boomer Aging/Retirement/Death & Total Population growth reductions, over the next 20-30 years.
2) Peak Oil - We are already on Hubbert's slippery downslope, with no replacement in sight for the many applications/usages of Oil, including Transport, Chemicals & many others.
3) Climate Change - Like many areas of modern life, we have done things without fully understanding where they will lead us. Now, Major tipping points in the Global Climate are becoming more apparent.
However, there are problems, in all of these issues:
1) Two of the oldest players, GREED & POLITICS, are still at the table and they will be formidable foes.
2) It may already be too late, to undo a large part of the seeds that have been planted.
Because of these inputs, this event will take its own course.
That said, I suspect that the "Demand & Supply" constraints placed on the Global economy, will continue to act in a manor similar to a Boa Constrictor, by strangling the life out of its prey (the Global economy), until the day that herd finally understands what is happening and the stampede begins!
That said, this event will finally be known as "The Greastest Depression".
Be careful!!! |
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By: mentawaisurf
18/05/2009
5:58 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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And it's not getting any better for corporate Australia either. We can expect more capital raisings, profit downgrades, dividend cuts, bad debt provisions and company liquidations moving forward;
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/financenews/ |
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By: craigaharwood
18/05/2009
5:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Or if you can't get another job they go to where their family is or where they think there is the best chance of getting a job and then look for cheap rental or share accommodation. Its even more difficult for a couple where one is made redundant but the other doesn't. The remaining income isn't enough to pay the mortgage (or the high priced rent in some cases)but they don't want to leave the area because one of them still has a job.
Which ever way you look at it when there is unemployemnt increasing people have to adjust their accomodation to their budget.
But don't worry lasty stick to your guns, you can always rent your spare room out to those people following your logic when things get tight :) |
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By: lasty49
18/05/2009
4:34 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"We're also now seeing the many vacant, holiday and investment homes coming onto an already softening rental market."
We are also seeing Mansions for rent but thats not in the income budget of most.
Hence the two tiered market.
Property is unique. Location location location is the essence.
As the job market shrinks in certain areas people get up and leave to find a job in other parts of the country mainly the cities. Thats how ghost towns are born.
Areas become in demand and up goes the price.
You cant live with an extended family when they live 300kms away from where your job is.It isnt that simple. |
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By: mentawaisurf
18/05/2009
4:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Craig is right. The new trend will be one of frugality including a return to extended family living and shared accommodation. We're also now seeing the many vacant, holiday and investment homes coming onto an already softening rental market.
This is the growing trend in rentals which will flow through to all sectors of the housing, and commercial, rental markets throughout Australia over coming months and years;
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090518/31/26e77.html |
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By: craigaharwood
18/05/2009
3:05 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| oops that spelling again - sorry guys |
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By: craigaharwood
18/05/2009
3:04 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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From Beautiful SE Qld, where all you southerners are moving to - come quick rents are falling, sale prices steady under 400,000 soft under 600,000 no volume in the 600 - 1m range and testicales torn out in the gold coast top end market.
Seriously we are seeing rents drop and people making decisions to move back to where they came - but often to move back in with family or share accom. |
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By: lasty49
18/05/2009
2:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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As more and more people lose their jobs they will come back to the big cities for work.
The sea change and tree changers will be forced back again thats unless they are retired but many have not. |
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By: lasty49
18/05/2009
2:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"So where are all these people living now?"
Overseas and are moving here. |
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By: bigus1im
18/05/2009
2:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Not all landlords bought their renters 2yrs ago and get lousy yields, but they are all foaming at the mouth with excitement and greed as this shortage rubbish keeps getting bandied about. If you have enough money you can rent anytime. Affordability causes the queues not availability. |
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By: peter_qld
18/05/2009
2:14 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The reason rents went up is two fold:
1. Go back 2 years or more and you will find that typically, rental investment properties returned a yield of around 2-3% pa post tax. You got more on your money in a Bank Account.
2. Rents starting increasing because landlord's could afford to put them up. Yes there was a shortage of RENTAL properties and this helped. But the real reason was because of the high interest rates and the incapacity of landlord's to comfortably service the loan they had to buy the rental property.
Another issue: Two author's have been spruiked as good reads about investment property. Under what economic conditions did they make their money in real estate which in turn allowed them to write their books? |
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