By: mentawaisurf
30/05/2009
5:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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I too agree with ancientsong. And there is so much more to support that argument which will only become more apparent over coming months....
straightarrow, some of my short positions on Australian diversified financials already closed out on Friday (with a limited profit due to the markets short squeeze). Once this corrective rally exhausts the bear market will resume then hedge funds et al will short the weakened players - until regulators ban it again. But by then it will be the invested who will lose faith and sell their shares that will drive markets lower. Importantly, this is a traders market still - not an investors market. |
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By: bigus1im
30/05/2009
4:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Can't fault that logic |
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By: ancientsong
30/05/2009
4:19 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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its always a good time to buy if you don't care what happens to prices in the short term, have a 20% deposit and can handle interest rate rises up to 10%, thats the responsible way to do it.
it is obvious prices are going south for a few reasons, house prices were dropping at 9% interest rates, rates have dropped to 50 year low and still prices are dropping.
the top end of the market is already collapsing,
the fhbg is supporting the bottom end so all the people with investment properties are getting out,
they are off loading their properties to generation X and Y who will be left holding the bag.
so this creates a problem, buy sucking in 1st homebuyers who jumped in on impluse, they are leaving no housing demand for the future because these buyers wouldve bought in the future but their demand is being brought foward into the present.
that is what debt is, it is FUTURE CONSUMPTION TAKEN TODAY
another thing to remember is that the baby boomer generation is the largest and wealthiest generation of our time and will be retiring soon..
they are holding the majority of the wealth and will want to liquidate those assets to fund their retirement..
now if they all are trying to sell at around the same time, it will create a supply/ demand imbalance in favour of buyers which will cause prices to fall.
also there no no shortage of housing, their is a shortage of INVESTMENT housing. if there was a shortage wouldn't we be seeing a steady rise in the homeless rate, these people are living somewhere.
also alot of reports come out and say "we are only building 160,000 new dwellings but we expect a 240,000 person increase in our population so we have a short fall in housing" but what they forget to say is you don't need 1 person per house built, the average is 2.5 persons per house.
there are many other reasons for prices to drop but I'll stop there for now |
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By: bigus1im
30/05/2009
3:38 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Yup, got me there |
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By: wealthforlife@rocketmail.com
30/05/2009
3:22 pm |
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By: bigus1im
30/05/2009
2:30 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Isn't Wealth-for-life one of those mobs that runs get-rich-quick seminars at the local pub, flogging-off investment properties with the offer of a free lunch? a la Trendwest?
Dunno, but sure sounds like a RE agent. |
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By: wealthforlife@rocketmail.com
30/05/2009
2:07 pm |
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By: rodneythesaviour
30/05/2009
6:13 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello Everyone!
Just thought I would drop in to leave a couple of comments prior to my heading down to the cafe to chat with my mates over breakfast.
I realise that jaymarcel, (sorry jay) may be a little upset by what I am about to pen..... nevertheless, here we go -
Good post sly_guy_nsw!
As a person who has managed to accumulate personal wealth as a result of both monies earned over the years from the rental of properties which I had bought as investments and from the subsequent sale of those properties (...last property sold only recently) for amounts which are in each case far in excess of the prices which I paid for them...
..I CAN CONFIRM THAT NOW IS THE TIME TO SELL AND NOT TO BUY PROPERTY.
Simply put. If they have not already done so, property investors are now busy offloading the properties they have which they purchased years ago.
These investors realise only too well that property values have now reached such a point that the difference between the amount which they originally purchased the property for and the current "book" value is so great that there is no better time to "cash in ones chips" and take the profit to the bank.
What we are seeing now, (as you mentioned in your post below sly_guy_nsw) is the result of these efforts by property investors... Many properties for sale which upon close inspection are seen to be rental properties or ones which until only recently have been utilised as such. |
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By: sly_guy_nsw
30/05/2009
5:52 am |
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By: straightarrow34
29/05/2009
3:02 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Lasty, the die hards will be calling a "bear rally" even when the all ords goes above 4500 which, all things being equal, should happen in the first quarter of next year. You've got to remember that many of "bears" on these public forums are thinly disquised short sellers. I suspect there's one here and I only hope he has shorted the banks as he said he was going to a few days ago. |
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By: lasty49
29/05/2009
2:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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There appears to be some good news coming on many fronts now.
Notice that the bad news in the US is being discarded.That means sentiment is shifting and price action with react more favourably to positive news.
The risk remains on the upside not the downside, so it appears.
The bears are still calling this a bear rally. How many are really onboard of this run up ?
Even the bulls arent so convinced,so that means the market isnt long.
So when will they get in ?
There isnt a bell that rings.
As the market ratchets higher the more reluctant they will hop onboard.
Its a nasty thing, fear |
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By: wealthforlife@rocketmail.com
28/05/2009
10:48 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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AND HERES SOME MORE POSITIVE STUFF!
A new research report confirms that green building can lead Australia's largest employment sector towards recovery, says the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA).
Retrogreening Offices in Australia, released by Davis Langdon, estimates that refurbishing a significant quantity of office stock across Australia would create jobs for more than 10,000 people in the construction industry - which translates into almost 27,000 new jobs across the broader economy.
According to the Chief Executive of the GBCA, Romilly Madew, the construction industry employs 9 per cent of the national labour force - and any fluctuation in the construction sector has a significant impact across the broader Australian economy.
"The report finds that for every 'green collar job' created as a result of retrofitting existing office stock, there is a potential annual saving of approximately 300 tonnes of greenhouse gas," Ms Madew says.
"What's more, this research clearly demonstrates that greening our existing office buildings will provide more value than the immediate impact on the environment. We will create jobs growth without needing to create additional office stock - future proofing our existing buildings, ensuring they perform closer to new standards and addressing tenant expectations for green buildings," Ms Madew adds.
Of Australia's 21 million square metres of existing office stock, 81 per cent is more than ten years of age, equalling more that 17.5 million square metres.
"This report is proof positive that support mech *** ms such as accelerated depreciation and incentives will not only help to unlock our buildings' carbon reduction capacity, but also enable the property sector to be an economic driver in these tough times," Ms Madew concludes.
About the Green Building Council of Australia
The Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA) is Australia's leading authority on green building. The GBCA was established in 2002 |
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By: jaymarcel
28/05/2009
3:57 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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This cut & paste thing is great.
HIA says recovery on the way for housingPatrick CaruanaMay 28, 2009 - 3:44PM A recovery in the housing sector is expected in the second half of 2009, thanks to low interest rates and government stimulus spending, a peak industry group says.The Housing Industry Association's (HIA) quarterly National Outlook forecasts new home starts will fall by 17 per cent to a total of 132,000 for the year to June 30.However, the report, released on Thursday, predicts a rise of 11 per cent in housing starts for the following 12 months.The HIA expected 129,500 dwellings to be completed in fiscal 2009 compared with 141,100 in 2008 and says it will take until 2011 before the 2008 level is reached again. |
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By: rickyrollings
27/05/2009
7:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Get ready!
**AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO FALTER**
Despite all the positive blarney and "wishful thinking" which we often see posted on these BLOG`s the facts remains the same...
OUR economy like that of many other countries in the world is in serious trouble.
Check out the latest news from WESTPAC .. (The article - "ECONOMY CONTINUES TO FALTER" is posted right here on Yahoo Finance News). Refer to it if you still have doubts...
And.. Something than none of us should in my oppinion ever forget... Since we are a relatively small country (population wise) any significant negative economic occurrences are far less easily absorbed.
Simply put -
If 1000 people lose their jobs in a country with a large population the roll on negative effect of such is hardly noticed, (other than by those who lost their jobs of course)..
BUT.. If 100 people lose their jobs here .. It is headline news.
Has everyone been reading the news headlines recently...? Because there are lots of job losses occurring in most parts of the nation.
It will take some time before the negative effect of these continuing job losses is felt.. But you better be ready for it when the negative effects of all these citizens losing their jobs become only too obvious to each of us.
Ther eis nothign wrong with a positive approach..
But a REALISTIC and INFORMED positive approach is far more effective.
The economic crisis is REAL.
AUSTRALIA - ECONOMIC DISASTER LOOMS |
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By: mentawaisurf
27/05/2009
3:46 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Jay, mortgage repayments is one measure of housing affordability as is the ratio of average yearly income to the average housing price (which has a long-term average in Australia of about 3.5 times but is currently still running at about 6 times). By this measure our housing market correction has a long way to go to rebalance.
But the key issue remains that the rate of interest on debt is less important than asset value movements and the amount of debt (now at record high levels in Australia). Even at an official cash rate of only 0% (mortgage rates of about 2-3%) there will be few willing borrowers if home prices are still falling (while banks will also be reluctant to lend against falling asset prices).
For our real estate market to recover we need a combination of lower interest rates and a cease in the decline of home prices. The key is 'real' mortgage rates, or the cost of the mortgage including the rate of appreciation or deprecation in homes. For example, a 5% mortgage rate with a 15% depreciation rate gives you a real mortgage rate of 20%, which isn't a good proposition for either borrowers or lenders. This is the 'real' dilemma we now face in our housing market and one that no central bank or government can 'fix'. |
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By: jaymarcel
27/05/2009
12:42 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Menta,
Saw this in the news today :-
Steven Dearnley owns a house, has not worked a day in 10 years and, combined with his partner, gets $1685 a fortnight from Centrelink in disability support pensions and family assistance.
For a $300,000 house the repayments would be $1600 a month, we are in such unaffordable times. |
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By: jaymarcel
27/05/2009
12:31 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Top 10 recession-beaters
1st - Australia
2nd - China
3rd - India and Singapore (equal)
5th - Hong Kong
6th - Canada
7th - J@pan and Qatar (equal)
9th - New Zealand
10th - Malaysia, Sweden and Vietnam (equal)
Source: Servcorp International Business Confidence Survey |
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By: mentawaisurf
27/05/2009
12:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The relentless cheerleading about real estates never-ending rise we watched on TV, heard on radio, read in newspapers and magazines helped expand the housing bubble while few ever questioned whether the past decade of 'prosperity' created by this debt explosion was in fact a false prosperity.
Blaming those who are currently reporting the deteriorating market conditions is akin to blaming those, mainly real estate agents and property developers, and the media who profited from their huge advertsing budgets, for talking up the housing market over the last decade. Such self-interested behaviour, coupled with easy credit conditions offered by our banks, helped fuel the investment mania resulting in unaffordable housing for the average Australian family. What Australia really needs now is affordable housing, and that is precisely what the market will give us - in just a few years time. |
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By: wealthforlife@rocketmail.com
27/05/2009
9:18 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Go Jay! |
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By: jaymarcel
27/05/2009
8:21 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Australia 'doing best' in recessionMay 26, 2009 - 5:04PM Australia is an island of calm amid the global economic storm despite pessimistic government and media responses, an international global business confidence survey shows.One in five international businesspeople cited Australia as the country best surviving the recession in a survey of 7,500 people in more than 24 nations.Australia placed first in the survey, ahead of China, with India and Singapore in equal third place. New Zealand also fared well, ranked ninth.The survey conducted in April was aimed at gauging business sentiment and what impact the economic downturn has had on businesses globally.Australian businesspeople appeared relatively unaffected, according to the poll conducted for Servcorp, a provider of virtual and serviced offices that operates in 61 nations."In my experience working with international businesses around the world, especially during the last six months, I've noticed how relatively unaffected (are) Australian businesses and... business persons' attitude by the economic downturn," Servcorp executive director Taine Moufarrige said."Over 71 per cent of Australian businesspeople believe we are the lucky country, and it's interesting to see that the rest of the world agrees."Pessimistic media reports were the number one concern among Australian businesses, the survey found.More than 25 per cent of Australian businesspeople also said they were worried about the way the government responded to the global financial crisis."I think the doom and gloom reports that Australians hear every day are harmful to Australian businesses and hold them back from seeing the opportunities that are present in the current economic climate," Mr Moufarrige said."This is a time when Australian business confidence needs to be supported and encouraged in the media and by the Australia government." |
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By: ngapie
27/05/2009
1:16 am Yahoo! Profile:
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I have to agree with you mate. If you preach gloom, you get gloom! If you preach joy, you get joy! If you preach laughter, you get laughter!
Positive vibes will get us positive results as we then will look at life more positively.
The reality is, let us all do our bit to build and take advantage of opportunities and not dwell on the doom and gloom that economists and sensasionalist journalists (hacks) love to present. I see many that do have positive outlooks in both their private lives and in business - and they are succeeding. I see many who have been retrenched rebuilding their lives from retrenched funds.
We go forwatd is the key - with positive mindsets to succeed and to fight back.
After all, did the economists and finance gurus (including those from the World Bank and IMF and the other banks and finance houses) predict the downturn?? What do they really know??
All of them now predict with rearvision clarity - can we trust them again??
Lets all pull our weight and tell the doomsayers they belong in hell and continue to work hard in our own areas for success. |
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By: ngapie
27/05/2009
1:07 am Yahoo! Profile:
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I have to agree with you mate. If you preach gloom, you get gloom! If you preach joy, you get joy! If you preach laughter, you get laughter!
Positive vibes will get us positive results as we then will look at life more positively.
The reality is, let us all do our bit to build and take advantage of opportunities and not dwell on the doom and gloom that economists and sensasionalist journalists (hacks) love to present. I see many that do have positive outlooks in both their private lives and in business - and they are succeeding. I see many who have been retrenched rebuilding their livesd from retrenched funds.
We go forwatd is the key. With positive mindsets to succeed and to fight back. |
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By: wealthforlife@rocketmail.com
26/05/2009
10:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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As everyone can see,from the posts below.I am correct about the political activists which is why I shall post this POSITIVE NEWS;
Australia 'doing best' in recession
Tuesday May 26, 2009, 4:58 pm
Australia is an island of calm amid the global economic storm despite pessimistic government and media responses, an international global business confidence survey shows.
One in five international businesspeople cited Australia as the country best surviving the recession in a survey of 7,500 people in more than 24 nations.
Australia placed first in the survey, ahead of China, with India and Singapore in equal third place. New Zealand also fared well, ranked ninth.
The survey conducted in April was aimed at gauging business sentiment and what impact the economic downturn has had on businesses globally.
Australian businesspeople appeared relatively unaffected, according to the poll conducted for Servcorp, a provider of virtual and serviced offices that operates in 61 nations.
"In my experience working with international businesses around the world, especially during the last six months, I've noticed how relatively unaffected (are) Australian businesses and... business persons' attitude by the economic downturn," Servcorp executive director Taine Moufarrige said.
"Over 71 per cent of Australian businesspeople believe we are the lucky country, and it's interesting to see that the rest of the world agrees."
Pessimistic media reports were the number one concern among Australian businesses, the survey found.
More than 25 per cent of Australian businesspeople also said they were worried about the way the government responded to the global financial crisis.
"I think the doom and gloom reports that Australians hear every day are harmful to Australian businesses and hold them back from seeing the opportunities that are present in the current economic climate," Mr Moufarrige said.
"This is a time when Australian busi |
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By: dr.xingli
26/05/2009
7:02 pm |
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By: martin.family_qld
26/05/2009
6:38 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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wealthforlife@rocketmail. com
You post the same type of insults using several different ID`s and appear to think it is funny to do so.
It is NOT funny. It is simply offensive.
Learn the difference.
Frankly, I doubt if any of the regular posters here on this or other Yahoo BLOG`s have ever taken offense at any oppinion you have ever posted concerning the subject matter...
However, I am sure that many, (whether they be regular contributors to this BLOG or not) have indeed be greatly offended by your bad manners and insults.
Can you not see that it is the WAY you communicate... Not neccessarily what you have to say which results in you being disliked?
Are you planning to act like a spoilt and unfriendly judgemental individual for the rest of your sorry lonely life...? |
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