By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
12:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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hd, I do think gold is close to peaking & it is all speculation which will come to an end over the next 12 months. What are your thoughts on the preference of gold over Platinum or Rhodium?
To me I feel safer with something we all want & need, "property" I'm not willing to claim property will never fall but long term I feel in Australia it is a safer bet & will always recover to a higher value.
Just got to make sure not to get into a forced sale position.
World debt is not in an ideal position but I believe is in a manageable position, we just need to educate people on what is good debt & what is bad debt, here in Australia we have a fair way to go to hit our peak borrowing capacity, the UK & US have been there for a long time, which is why they have suffered now.
I'm too new to the 'J' curve but will get back to you. |
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By: wendywen85
6/11/2009
12:44 pm |
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By: mentawaisurf
6/11/2009
12:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hugh, there's likely to be support for gold as money flees equities looking for a safe place to hide. But as Roubini says, the deleveraging of positions would see a dollar reversal which could smash this rally, including the gold rally.
At the end of the day, debtors will sell ALL their assets to pay back debt because creditors will demand cash - not stocks or commodities or even gold. |
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By: hdmausguy
6/11/2009
12:21 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta - What do you think will happen to gold & P M's + producing gold mines in the next few years? What do you think of the popular view on gold that "when" the market tanks there'll be a stampede into safe assets,including gold? There's been suggestions that $5koz will be reached in 2012? |
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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
12:17 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hi Ralph, but we do have to talk about majority not minority. Majority live in the city, the suburbs & growth areas. |
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By: mentawaisurf
6/11/2009
11:53 am Yahoo! Profile:
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It's not Armageddon or the end of the world. But we are in an unfolding super-cycle bear market that should not bottom until at least 2012. We survived the 1930s and we'll survive this era too. It won't be pretty but it will be necessary so that we may again progress in a sustainable manner moving forward without a return to the debt fueled consumerism and rampant speculation that caused the crisis.
Meanwhile, contrary to what our mainstream economists and financial media are proclaiming, the worst is not over. In fact it appears increasingly likely that the major declines of the bear market lie dead ahead. Caution is the prudent strategy as it's now all about return of investment - not return on investment.
"Since asset prices are being inflated by a weak dollar right now, a dollar reversal could smash this rally, says Nouriel Roubini. The perfectly correlated bubble across all global asset classes gets bigger by the day."
"In the short run, what's happening is that there is a wall of liquidity, not just in the United States but around the world, that is chasing assets. It is equities, commodities, it's credit, it is gold, it is emerging market asset classes".
"We have the mother-of-all carry trades. Everybody is borrowing, shorting the dollar, and investing in assets all over the world."
"Once the dollar reverses, you need to close your shorts, dump assets..."
This unwinding will hit hard and fast and lead to a surge in the USD and a collapse in asset prices around the world, including Australia. Given the USD seems to be in a major bottoming process, while stocks, commodities, real estate and other currencies appear to be topping, the key market trend reversal is looming. |
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By: hdmausguy
6/11/2009
11:43 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| jay - Did you notice the word "decoupling" in my post on gold. This will take quite some time to emerge. In recent days we've had the USD index rising,the DOW rising & falling and gold rising or remaining steady. Over time gold will rise to it's true market value once the manipulators have their influence controlled. What's your view on world debt? The future effects on Australia & G20 in the next 5 years? A look on the net at the "j" curve debt chart graphs will give you a quick & easy overview. Also do I read you correctly that your view is that gold has peaked & it will drop in price? |
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By: ralph.montegue
6/11/2009
11:33 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| ... And those who on a daily basis are faced with the reality of our economic situation many are suffering. |
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By: ralph.montegue
6/11/2009
11:31 am Yahoo! Profile:
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EXCELLENT POST By: akdoc1 Today (8:29 am)!!
Frankly, I also would feel much happier should certain people be inclined to look more closely at what is happening to the country as a whole rather than simply focus only on the few areas where some positive indication of the economy at least holding its own might be found.
Let us not forget that "where wealthy are, wealthy is".
Many within our society do not reside in areas heavily populated by the wealthy.
And who on a daily basis are faced with the reality of our economic situation many are suffering. |
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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
11:29 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| I agree with you an "I'm right your wrong" arguement is always a little pointless & as a rule regulars on here put up a good discussion for their point of view including menta, I can not answer for menta so do not know his reasoning for holding back on answers sometimes, perhaps it is just that being wrong on a call entered on this forum can not be forgotten. We can not all always be right & sometime make a statement on the info available or an opinion at that moment in time & some on here do not accept that views & opinions can change from an individual. |
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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
11:18 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hi troubador, my statement was in noway intended at one individual |
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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
11:15 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi hd, very good but the question is can gold maintain this lead over property, also which do you think had the biggest risk at the time of your dates given?
Are you a believer that gold basically does the opposite to the US dollar & if that is the case it sounds like a very risky investment now, still even riskier than houses in my point of view. |
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By: troubador35
6/11/2009
11:13 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| correction to my last post. I of course meant "germane". It appears I have the lovely Germaine Greer on my mind. |
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By: troubador35
6/11/2009
11:11 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Oh, did I forget to mention that I thought yesterdays posts by warren and pwaldons wer germain to the subject? How neglectful of me.
I felt they were particularly germain because they were finally able to get a resolution to a question. The question was, "If we are going into deflationary times, where is the safest place for our cash". Mentawaysurf finally answered the question. Is that fair enough? |
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By: troubador35
6/11/2009
11:07 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Jaymarcel, were you addressing your comments to me? If you are, your comments are perplexing. Perplexing because I don't think I used the word "rubbish" once in my post. I also don't think I used the word "boring" in my post. Those are words that you used. Not me.
As to your glib phrase, "if you don't like it, leave...", is that a version of "my country right or wrong, if you don't like it here, go someplace else"?
I simply think the more the merrier on any forum! All too often forums fall into the doldrums and it happens to be my opinion that this one has. Evidentaly, you don't agree and find this to be an already exciting, informative and enlightening place. Good for you. Perhaps the contributions of people like Warren and others will also make it an entertaining place. Now, there's nothing wrong with being entertained while you're doing all that heavy learning, is there Jay? |
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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
10:47 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Well I'm relatively new to this forum (just a few months now) & enjoy the little battle, I also find there is some learning to be had from here in respect to other peoples views/opinions.
But the entries I am most confused with is of some who come on here to say how rubbish the forum is, it's pretty simple if you don't like it leave, the rest of us are on here because we enjoy the interaction with others on the subject in question, if you are not then don't type anything just go elsewhere. Surely your life is not so boring that you just jump between forums making entries on how you don't like the forum. |
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By: troubador35
6/11/2009
10:32 am |
Message deleted. |
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By: warren_b96
6/11/2009
10:06 am |
Message deleted. |
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By: warren_b96
6/11/2009
9:54 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"your postings are a credit to your ability to write c r a p . Recognition, is that what you were after?"
And what do you call the above? Intelligent, sensitive, well thought out and provacatively enlightened criticism? You're a self righteous moron. |
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By: ang101000
6/11/2009
8:43 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Warren and Pwaldans,
Could you please keep your personal attacks to a minimum and add some value to the debate.
I must admit, your postings are a credit to your ability to write c r a p . Recognition, is that what you were after?
Here, you have it, now try harder. |
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By: akdoc1
6/11/2009
8:29 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Jay; Towns like Bundy are growning, yes but don't you ever travel up central highways? This is what I was talking about people who are not affected don't notice the smaller places. A few months ago I stopped for lunch at one place that used to have about 6 meal places a few years ago only one shop is still going. I also said why prices have gone up and for cheap imports your importing another countries deflated prices. Computer and car prices have devalued not just because of cheaper production but because the salesmen can't sell them, why do you think government is offering 50% tax breaks to hold up car prices. This is deflation hitting you in the face and you still can't see it. Deflation is taking place when retailers drop prices to stay in business and it is happening Australia wide, they are not cutting prices out of the goodness of their hearts. Deflation is not happening across the board, companies that monopolise sectors can still force prices up, areas gaining from mining boom see prices rises because people have money to spend or good credit ratings. Deflation is never a problem for the average joe until they lose their job through it, so it is hard to see. |
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By: jaymarcel
6/11/2009
7:23 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Akdoc, But if deflation has been happening for many years why have most things gone up in price?
Most of the country towns here in queensland are growing, not shuting down so perhaps your findings are local to you.
The only things that have gone down in price are items that have become cheaper to produce such as computers, cars & tvs. Which to me is a good thing & not a sign of deflation, but a sign of true price being passed onto the consumer. |
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By: akdoc1
6/11/2009
6:45 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Thanks Ang; big difference between me and Menta is Menta sees global deflation as some thing in the future. I see it as being already active for many years, Australia has all the signs low farm gate prices and in many country towns half the high street shops have been closed down for a long time. However because of the monoliptic nature of Australian businesses and past governments fear of reccessions prices have been kept inflationary. With overseas competition taking the blame for business failures that possibly resulted from deflationary pressures especially in country areas. Deflation in Australia through not affecting main business centres has just been ignored and will remain so until as I believe Menta put it "the sh##t hits the fan". |
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By: pegasus2203
5/11/2009
10:09 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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pwaldons
I don't like you attack people that way. |
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By: pegasus2203
5/11/2009
10:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello Menta,perception_now and Ang!
I enjoy reading your quaulity post .
I don't know if you have watched tonight's ABC 8:30pm program "Addicted to Money" such a good one.
I would like to tell everyone to keep watch it next Thursday(part II) and the week after(partIII) |
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