By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 1:27 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Thanks ecchi from my initial search I couldn't find much of a domino effect from the j@pan crisis.
I'm a little confused on your theory of there being a lower percentage of poorer people being in j@pan as I thought the harder hit in this crisis were at the top, the ones with the most debt & collapsed assets. |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 1:24 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta I do agree "an appetite for risk" is not always a good thing when we are still running in stimulus but this could just be the change over from stimulus to recovery. Who knows?
We already know the Dubai debt crisis is not a problem for Austrlaian banks, it just comes down to how it is paid off & when. Who knows?
For me I stick with Australian finances & believe we are starting to see a true recovery but I do expect some speed bumps. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
4 days ago (Monday, 1:23 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Jay, I think you will find there is/was a lower proportion of "poorer" people in J@pan so it hasn't has as much effect there. Also look back to the previous economic trouble that J@pan had and they did drag the rest of the world down with them. |
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By: mentawaisurf
4 days ago (Monday, 1:18 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, because they're one in the same.
Thanks Ang. Interesting links;
Are we headed for another economic big bang?
..The new bubbles got started when all those stories started to appear in the world's financial press about the return of "an appetite for risk". Of course, the appetite should return following the bailout. That's moral hazard.
If we put moral hazard, no simplification and thereby no significant deleveraging in the context of a renewed appetite for risk, together with a purposely inflated series of bubbles (perhaps including in China) then we might have a case for global financial crisis 3.0.
We should note that we could have a ticking time bomb because a good part of all those toxic assets remain hidden in the balance sheets of US and especially European banks. The system can still crash...
For Labor the Rudd bubble coexists with a bubble in the economy. If the bubbles in the economy burst again then the Prime Minister is finished because the Rudd bubble is now indexed to the economic bubble.
http://onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9687& page=1
Keiser on 'Tsunami alert': Dubai debt crisis awakes storm?
http://www.homepagedaily.com/Pages/article8469-kei ser-on-tsunami-alert-dubai-debt-crisis-awakes-stor m.aspx |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 1:16 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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But each country does have its individual financial control & reserves.
Take Australia for example we are now about to have another interest rate rise. Then you have China that is in a sticky situation of having large reserves but all linked to the USA dollar which it is pegged to but it is in control of what it does with this situation.
So this planet earth finance is a bit of bull, J@pan has been in its financial strife for over 10 years yet it hasn't dragged the rest of us down with it, in fact life has continued as normal there. |
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By: lasty49
4 days ago (Monday, 1:12 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Chanos is a short seller.
Im not sure of the rules that China authorities allow in short selling.
Mind you if he is that much of pessimist why does he have to go and short sell China when his own country will do. |
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By: mentawaisurf
4 days ago (Monday, 12:26 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang, I'll view the article and video. Re China, I'm with Jim Chanos on that one (ie. the "paper dragon" - see China post).
China will also experience a severe economic setback along with the rest of the world in the near-term (China is part of planet Earth/planet Finance after all), but after several years of upheaval and a few decades of political reform and sustainable economic rebuilding, China will eventually emerge as a key economic leader of the world. |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 12:24 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Don't we have China & India battling for our resources. |
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By: rossnhoj
4 days ago (Monday, 11:14 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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KING--- Ken Henry the 8TH---
Sounds like PIG IRON BOB before all hell got released |
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By: rodneysaviour2
4 days ago (Monday, 11:07 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi ang101000!
Thanks for sharing the info.
Ken Henry might be correct in that a .."China fueled resources boom" shall occur.
IF.. strong demand for the products which they maufacture and sell to the world returns.
However, at least in the near future, I for one believe that that is a big IF!!
Additionally, lets not forget that the government of the P. R. of China has been very busy of late seeking out suppliers of the same and other natural resources as those which we are currently or at least have been their major supplier of in the past.
Accordingly, let us not be so naive as to believe that as and when "the REAL recovery" occurs and demand for their products returns that the P.R. of China shall look ONLY to Oz for the same raw materials which they require.
Like any shopper faced with alternative sources from which to purchase the same product, the P. R. of China shall select the supplier who is able to provide what they need, when they need at the lowest price.
As Granny used to say -
"DO NOT COUNT YOUR CHICKENS UNTIL THEY ARE HATCHED" |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 9:13 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang, unfortunately there is a problem with that website, I'll go back to it later when they have fixed it but jundging by the quote you have taken it is as laughable prediction as the 'worst case scenerio' article.
I did need cheering up today, my alarm cl0ck never went off & when I did get up I didn't have my normal zing in me, I just grumbled to the girlfriend & ran out the door. |
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By: ang101000
4 days ago (Monday, 8:48 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Jay and Others,
for you I repeat my earlier post that you may have missed;
Menta and All,
I have promised to find something to cheer you up. Of course, it had to be something thought provoking.
I highly recommend the following article, (not a very long one, 3 pages). It is very fascinating, convincing and supporting your arguments (and mine) about the future state of the economy.
Here is a short extract;
Ken Henry, believes that Australia is headed for a China fueled resources boom that will last to 2050. The economic policy debate in Australia has shifted very quickly following Henry's remarks. The issue now is how this coming boom should be managed. The debate is being led by two big hitters, with Henry pitted against Ross Garnaut. The latter warns that the boom threatens to distort the Australian economy and will lead to unsustainable current account deficits, thus preventing a resources lead escape from the boom-bust cycle. This point is crucial.
Even if Henry should prove to be correct, notice that any long term escape from the business cycle would not be due to the structure of the Australian economy itself. His case depends upon what is happening in the global economy.
I don't want to select and quote short extracts from it, it is worth reading in its totality.
So, prepare a drink and start reading;
'Are we headed for another economic big bang?' by Marko Beljac
http://onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9687& page=3
BTW, Thanks for your earlier intervention. |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 8:46 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang, great link thanks, I see no mention of China or Australia in there though.
When the J@pan situation hit it did not cause the whole world to fall into deflation or depression or even follow in their footsteps.
But still a good read. |
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By: ang101000
4 days ago (Monday, 8:24 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ok Possums (Menta, Lasty, Al, All)
Given that Menta is constantly accused of 'inventing and predicting' the worst case scenario in regards to debt and GFC, I thought, a professional analysis and outlook would present a more balanced view. So here is a link to a analysis by Societe Generale( fourth quarter 2009).
Enjoy reading;
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22756491/SocGen-Worst-Ca se-Debt-Scenario
Yes Ecchi, sometimes I do agree with Menta, but not always... |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Monday, 7:53 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, unfortunately you still run your predictions on guess work, we should stick to the facts, Australian unemployment is on its way back down & confidence is on its way back up.
These two fact are in opposition to why you think the banks are in trouble. |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Sunday, 3:26 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Your question on the other blog was to the prof in regards to one of the gold buying countries. The video had the answer to your question.
Sorry Fire, I am having major difficulties writing. |
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By: firefly_au
5 days ago (Sunday, 2:56 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang :)
I saw your post to me on the stock and shares thread :)
Sorry but I missed what you were referring to unless it is the opinion story on RT. Is that what you are referring to in your post to me?
If it is, IMO it is a good story - a bit dark but still good :)
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Sunday, 12:53 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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King,
Dubai is what I would call a typical 'red ocean' market (you know all the big sharks fight for the fish and blood flows around). I prefer 'blue ocean' strategy.
King,
good luck with your investment strategy.
Ang |
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By: kingat33
5 days ago (Sunday, 12:17 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| U know something Ang, I've a property developer friend who has been in Dubai for the last five years building properties and came back a year ago with his entire family. Told me that Dubai is a big con as it has been grossly exaggerated. Many big timers have left that place and the media has been very quite about it. He lost quite abit as all his investment gone down the drained and the country is totally not transparent at all. Do u dare to invest in such a place Ang? The media cannot be trusted in these days and though this Dubai thing been going on for months, they never reported it. The same may applies to many countries right now, one such country is Singapore which is equally not transparent and currently building two casinos and lots of developments. Wonder whether Australia will suffer the same fate though with huge public and private debts. Anything can happen to countries and corporation with huge debts. Still Cash is King! |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Sunday, 11:51 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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King,
there were and will be more casualties of the debt crisis, the are plenty of opportunities for you. The media is focused only on the to big to fall countries and companies but dig deeper and there are plenty of opportunities that don't get attention. |
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By: kingat33
5 days ago (Sunday, 11:37 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| c'mon ang, Abu Dhabi ain't called a white knight if they gonna own Dubai cheaply. The king will also get a piece of action if the price is right, say at 80% discount from today's price. |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Sunday, 11:06 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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King,
Abu Dhabi will wait and will bottom fish. I agree with the European position. Watch the link to understand my position. |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Sunday, 11:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Fire,
just a note; I am on Chinese (word) computer today. |
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By: kingat33
5 days ago (Sunday, 11:00 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| To those that said Dubai prob is a small one as Abu Dhabi is gonna save it. This is hilarious as firstly, that is an assumption as secondly, if Dubai can always rely on Abu Dhabi, why did Dubai going around the globe borrowing billions from many creditors which is such a hassle when all they should have done is go next door and knock. Isn't it better to owe just one person money than to have ten creditors? Things are obviously not that simple and the truth of the matter is Dubai had defaulted on their loan obligations which will have disastrous consequences globally. |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Sunday, 10:47 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Fire,
By the time Menta posted his blurb the European market priced in the news. I am sorry, that most of us only have one eye and that is fixated at US markets.
When I wrote my blurb I already had finished reading the US and Eurpe market analysis. For the European position see the link attached(in answer to Ecchi).
The American view is different; according to them Dubai is not a big issue, there is plenty of money Abu Dhabi to 'save' the company involved.
If the American view is correct - Why didn't the money centre (Abu Dhabi) had not stepped in already?
Mentas point was a fact by the time Australia woke up to the news... |
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