By: lasty49
3 days ago (Wednesday, 2:28 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
menta,
"The USD will soar in price not because of an improving US economy or with the Fed raising interest rates (as many assume is the only way it can occur) but because of deteriorating global markets and a rush back to the 'relative' safety of the dollar."
What reports are you reading to say they are deteriorating?
"Unfortunately for many (especially super funds who have recently been heavily investing back into markets) we are very close to this key market reversal and its effects will be swift and devastating."
Most peoples Super funds are in a balanced fund.
Thats a mixture of equity, property trusts, cash.
The Superfund manager cant switch it to this and that UNLESS the client specifically says so.
they have a mandate and must stick to it.
Most clients dont bother to do anything.
Now you assume that everyone is long equities and the bubble is about to burst.
News for you Menta.
http://www.benzinga.com/tradermark/2009/9/16/mutua l-fund-investors-cling-to-safety-of-bonds-missing- stock-rally-pimco-total-
Infact the risk is for the bond holders to exit and when they do the US dollar will be under pressure further.
So who is actually buying Stocks?
Certainly not many picked the up move.
Short sellers of the down move covered.
Top pickers are being stopped out.
Many I speak to say that they wouldnt buy here and are waiting for a pullback which doesnt tell me the markets overly long.
Who are these guys borrowing billions and billions of dollars ploughing money into asset bubbles?
Credit is tight so Im led to believe.
US banks have been hoarding cash.UK banks have strict controls and European banks in a similar position.
Chinese banks have been dishing it out but thats about it.
Is this asset bubble/carry trade a myth?
I think price action has assumed a large bubble on very little volume. |
|
By: new_me@y7mail.com
3 days ago (Wednesday, 2:12 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
new_me@y7mail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| I think the days are over where people see the USD as any sort of safe haven. There is only one and that is gold. |
|
By: new_me@y7mail.com
3 days ago (Wednesday, 2:09 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
new_me@y7mail.com Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
"since you can get a bull run and a bear run occuring on 2 different sectors one equalize the other that could explain the market going side ways"
Yes, and the sector that is going up the most is gold.
Menta, Good luck with your bullish prediction of the USD. I for one don't think it will eventuate. I know it often does not pay to have the view of the majority but I think this time is an exception. |
|
By: ang101000
3 days ago (Wednesday, 1:45 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
ang101000 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Lasty,
you can't hold it, can you? Fire recommended the use of some nasal spray...ask him, he seems to know a lot about it ;-) 4800 would be a miracle today, give up. |
|
By: jadeshangrila
3 days ago (Wednesday, 12:29 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
jadeshangrila Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Menta, stocks are moving side way round the 4800 mark. It is a sign that buying pressure and the selling pressure is about equal. Some sectors are going up while some sectors are going down. That's the thing with value investors when the price is right they sell and you get a distribution phase. Than when it bottoms out the money goes back in and the sector goes back up in value. since you can get a bull run and a bear run occuring on 2 different sectors one equalize the other that could explain the market going side ways. |
|
By: glh40
3 days ago (Wednesday, 12:10 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
denrose9:Fair observation <<<If the American economy starts to improve and the dollar increases its strength, gold will drop in value and it will be off loaded on to the market so quick it won't be worth buying until the next crisis. That is how fickle the markets are>>>
We also May also see US DOLLAR RISING & GOLD Rising together (Counter-Intuitive) when that d/day arrives as confusion will reign... But the eventual outcome will be as mentioned the USA NEEDS a Lower Currency NOW.
************************* ************************* ***
The Only mistake I made so far is I forgot to add to my comment -: Greater Depression when I ment to say it will be a Inflationary Greater Depression... Inflationary as a Currency Event due to the WW Devaluations....(Rise in the cost of Living) and Depressionary as this will be the effects/affects it will have on us all.....just wanted to clear that point up..........cheers ;) |
|
By: mentawaisurf
3 days ago (Wednesday, 12:01 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Lasty, 4800 may just prove to be the maximum short term climax (and the ideal selling point but certainly not the time to jump into the market).
The USD will soar in price not because of an improving US economy or with the Fed raising interest rates (as many assume is the only way it can occur) but because of deteriorating global markets and a rush back to the 'relative' safety of the dollar. This unwind of the mother-of-all carry trades will see global liquidity flows dry up and lead to the bursting of asset bubbles around the world (stocks, commodities, real estate etc) that were fuelled by the reverse relationship over the last 8 months or so. Unfortunately for many (especially super funds who have recently been heavily investing back into markets) we are very close to this key market reversal and its effects will be swift and devastating. |
|
By: glh40
3 days ago (Wednesday, 11:32 am) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hey jay: Tks for your comment ;) <<< it'll leave you with a block of gold & no buyers.>>> If you have eyes that See and Ears that hear you can Quickly deduce that MANY CENTRAL BANKS are BUYING GOLD FOR THE COMING COLLAPSE as they NEED a store of Value to PAY FOR OIL & GOODS & SERVICES the IMF have granted that wish and exchanged their USD for Gold which they will be able to trade and Have an ASSET which will RISE when their USDOLLARS FAIL.
IN plain English for those that Can't Connect the Dots BANKS/GOVT"S WILL BUY THE PEOPLES GOLD AND PRINT THE MONEY TO GIVE IT TO THEM.... NO MATTER THE HIGH PRICE ...BUT EXPECT to pay a High TAX on it ...but you will be still happy...(Govt's WILL WANT IT TO PAY FOR OIL ETC)
<<<trying to sell it at the same time as all the others that got sucked into gold fever>>> There is No-One Spruiking Gold Like they are Real Estate on the Contrary they are Buying your Gold at the shopping Centres around the World ......So
WHO'S being Suckered In ??? and also Gold (Physical) is not going back down Like it did in the 80's...Paper gold WILL eventually COLLAPSE as mentioned.
<<< don't get greedy.>>>This comment never cesses to amaze me that as soon as you have Gold you have to be perceived as Greedy & Rich, But note you can have as many Houses as you like and or 100,000 BHP or 100,000 Googgle and thats Ok your sophisticated and Smart ...Have a Bar or 2 of Gold and your a Greedy Selfish hell bound low life....
Thankyou God for the Wisdom ,Grace and Mercy and Prudence you have freely given me.
The Only mistake I made so far is I forgot to add to my comment -: Greater Depression when I ment to say it will be a Inflationary Greater Depression... Inflationary as a Currency Event due to the WW Devaluations and Depressionary as this will be the effects/affects it will have on the.... Cost of Living. |
|
By: jadeshangrila
3 days ago (Wednesday, 10:37 am) Yahoo! Profile:
jadeshangrila Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| Market set to breach the Shangrila mark- 4800 will it hold? I suspect the market will move side ways around that mark - 2 possibility is it distribution or is it consolidation to move further up. That will depend on the next reporting season up in the begining of the year. Interest rates are on th march upwards as wealth assets continue to inflate. |
|
By: lasty49
3 days ago (Wednesday, 10:30 am) Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi Ang,
"are you there? You've got it up today, haven't you? I am very pleased :-).
Could you please keep up every day of the week?
Is that too much to ask for?"
Looks like that dose of Viagra you gave me has so far done the trick.
From technical positioning (page 32 of the Karma Sutra) a maximum short term climax can be achieve if a decisive breach of 4800 is attained.
Sounds like a smokers paradise to me.. ;-) |
|
By: lasty49
3 days ago (Wednesday, 9:14 am) Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
"If the American economy starts to improve and the dollar increases its strength, gold will drop in value and it will be off loaded on to the market so quick it won't be worth buying until the next crisis. That is how fickle the markets are."
For the US economy to improve it needs a weak dollar to become competitive.
Commodities have become secondary currencies.
The American dream is finished for a very long time. |
|
By: denrose9
3 days ago (Wednesday, 9:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
denrose9 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| If the American economy starts to improve and the dollar increases its strength, gold will drop in value and it will be off loaded on to the market so quick it won't be worth buying until the next crisis. That is how fickle the markets are |
|
By: jaymarcel
3 days ago (Wednesday, 8:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
jaymarcel Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi glh40, Just wanted to make comment on your entry yesterday at 2:04pm
"Physical Real Gold in the pocket will ride you through ALL of the on-comming storms at this juncture and leave you with... WEALTH Par Excellence in the future....imho of course."
If what your predicting really happens it'll leave you with a block of gold & no buyers. Also don't forget you will be trying to sell it at the same time as all the others that got sucked into gold fever, pick your selling of gold wisely & don't get greedy. |
|
By: glh40
3 days ago (Wednesday, 1:02 am) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Gold: precious metal breaks $1,200/oz to reach new high
Just as I mentioned last Month ....$1,220 for Dec ;)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance /investing/gold/6700195/Gold-precious-metal-breaks -1200oz-to-reach-new-high.html |
|
By: glh40
3 days ago (Wednesday, 12:46 am) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
menta: Tks for your input great to get another perspective and you have Valid Points ;) the usual outcome would be as you have mentioned everyone dumps everything for the USD, for those who have been watching the Rules are Changing and we have an EVOLVING PHYSICAL GOLD market to settle DEBT & TOO COUNTER USDOLLAR LOSES (So the higher it goes the more you have to buy for Goods and Services and of course Pay Debt ) also an Increasing Dollar will NOT HELP the USA get out of it's problems a Lower one will, it's NOW in it's Interest to DEVALUE the USD contrary to their stance ...The IMF is distributing this Gold to those Countries which have been USDOLLAR friendly all these yrs (last time 10yrs ago)...when the collapse is visable to the massunwashed a GREENBACK USDollar in your pocket will be of Value in the USA ONLY.... and if your Unemployed YES it will have increased puchasing power than if you had None ;) ..But OUTSIDE US Boarders the US$ will be defaulted on (boarders will be closed) Leaving Contract holders of all types with NOTHING they will NOT be allowed to repatriate their USDollars to the USA (Thats why China is Dumping USDollars around the world for Tangible Assets NOW) ...The US has (is) prepared for this as they have over the last few yrs Printed Coloured Numbered Dollars which will be eventually used for foreign trade and accepted, (Greenbacks for domestic use Only), they have GOLD Numbers on the 100 bills... these will be backed by a revalued Physical gold price ....which when all is lost (Markets)they will ENCOURAGE a HIGH PHYSICAL GOLD PRICE for Obvious reasons ;)...So as you can imagine paper contracts/shares even mines will all Lose and MINES particularly will be Nationlised in the Nations interest .
The coming Greater Depression and wealth transfer is underway...great trouble for mankind just ahead :(
I believe you see Gold as a Commodity... I see it as Money/.....real Currency.. as you say ;)
Physical Gold:.the ONLY REAL Currency .bye matey ... |
|
By: ang101000
4 days ago (Tuesday, 10:33 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
ang101000 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Morgan Stanley's Euro report for 2010
http://www.viewsflow.com/w/4nb |
|
By: lasty49
4 days ago (Tuesday, 9:57 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Menta
What happens if your anticipations fail.
How long are you prepared to wait ?
If you are calling for a disaster of the magnitude you indicate then I think you will have more to worry about than a buying opportunity in real estate. |
|
By: perceptions_now
4 days ago (Tuesday, 8:35 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
perceptions_now Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
However, by the bottom of the deflation, which will take several years to unwind, those who have preserved their money (real currency) will be presented with once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities (of ALL asset classes).
===========
menta,
Whilst I agree with many of your outcomes, I can not agree on the duration you refer to, nor the likelihood of great buying opportunities, in a couple of years!
This is a once in history event and the timeline will be much longer than the usual McDonalds Recession. |
|
By: firefly_au
4 days ago (Tuesday, 6:55 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
firefly_au Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi glh :)
G'Day to you too mate! Thanks for the info on OTC options :)
Yes the Firefly series was a reasonably good SciFi/Western series but to be frank, I found it to be a blasted nuisance as far as my ID went! Soon after it aired I had to add the _au to the firefly ID I had been using for years at LAN network game parties!
Every man and his dog wanted to use "firefly" and unless I was the first one there I could not use it without the addition of _au. Such is life he he :) So now I use firefly_au here and on other forum where possible and at LAN parties still.
BYE :) |
|
By: mentawaisurf
4 days ago (Tuesday, 6:40 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
mentawaisurf Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Yes glh40, we are indeed getting closer to that tipping point. A collapse in USD denominated debt, derivatives, commodities and bonds will be the greatest deflationary event ever experienced. As the debt and asset bubbles bursts around the world the remaining dollars will actually increase in value (purchasing power). This will occur regardless of how much credit the Fed creates because it will not be taken up by borrowers (due to the deflationary spiral) and that which is will be insignificant compared to the trillions in debt deflation.
However, by the bottom of the deflation, which will take several years to unwind, those who have preserved their money (real currency) will be presented with once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities (of ALL asset classes). |
|
By: glh40
4 days ago (Tuesday, 2:04 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
That right lasty49... Not many believe it will occur Virtual reality has won the day for so many Yrs but we are approaching the point of REALITY were the past preceptions will be overwhelmed by Cold Hard Facts and there will be a massive loss of Prosperity when the US$ Value devalues (is devaluing) and 1.3 Quad trillion in Derivatives collapse (many have collapsed already)(no takers) then goes the USD/BOND Market and their Emergency Low rates.... So there will be nothing left but DEBT .... Oh My we are close !!
The Collapse Occurred in March this year, all we've had is a massive cover up by just printing our economic recovery (Temporary reprieve) as all this excessive printing will bring about WW Currency Devaluations and more Instability and volatility.
Physical Real Gold in the pocket will ride you through ALL of the on-comming storms at this juncture and leave you with... WEALTH Par Excellence in the future....imho of course. |
|
By: lasty49
4 days ago (Tuesday, 1:07 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
lasty49 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
glh40
That goes for the USA as well. |
|
By: glh40
4 days ago (Tuesday, 12:09 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Is Britain on the brink of financial armageddon?
By James Palumbo
Last updated at 11:07 PM on 27th November 2009
Politicians don't want the public to know what's going on
Close any gaps in url
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231563/Is -Britain-brink-financial-armageddon.html#ixzz0YOYC TAP2
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231563/Is -Britain-brink-financial-armageddon.html |
|
By: glh40
4 days ago (Tuesday, 11:58 am) Yahoo! Profile:
glh40 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
| G'day firefly..BTW, great Sci-fi once you get into it, far from Serenity!! ;) :This is what I know; OTC Options are O ver T he C ounter Contracts which are allowed to rake in Billions for the Big Trading Houses (each Month) Totally Unregulated thanks to Greenspan So Totally without any standards or Transparency 1,000's x bigger than the Stock market, Outstanding is 600 Trillion plus which is usually rolled over, Hence the NEED TO CONTROL MEDIA RELEASES & the IMPORTANCE of the USD$$ /Oil /GOLD at exactly the right day/time :And Yes they expire at the same Time usually the Last Thursday of the Month about 10am or 2pm US Time in USD and... Most of the World is involved ....Gov'ts, Media, Wall St...I was involved(held contracts) many yrs ago but now I'm Only Concentrating on Wealth preservation (Physical Gold) ....back then (10yrs) I used a broker I do not have one anymore as he made me Broker.. lol...And I would certainly NOT recommend these to Anyone as they are Highly Risky & Manipulated, They can change Contract prices VERY quickly (Always 10cent short) and Can and do Change the Day/time (just when you think you have worked them out) and they use things like triple witching to (throw you off) (Name should be enough to keep people away) BUT you can find info about these contacts but you have to register to see current contact prices (if you wish to follow this up Ask at a share forum as they would be more up to date with the Web sites as my broker used to do it for me) ........bye for now ;) |
|
By: ang101000
4 days ago (Tuesday, 10:56 am) Yahoo! Profile:
ang101000 Did this message offend you?
Sign in to report abuse |
Reply to this message |
Hi Fire,
'KISS - the engineerâs way of designing things that work. Solving the climate change crisis with nuclear fission plants to power the separation of oil from the billions of tons of tar in which it's embedded - and destroying hundreds of thousands of acres of forest to get at the tar - is not a simple technique. (See last post below.) Blowing up grasslands and forested mountains to uncover the coal, transporting it hundreds, if not thousands, of miles to burn it for electricity then capturing the CO2 in an enormously expensive process and then driving it below the surface of the earth where it may - or may not - stay sequestered is just a tad on the needlessly complex, wasteful, expensive and stupid side. Putting gigantic mirrors in space to deflect solar radiation or placing tens of thousands of bus-sized boxes around the world to suck CO2 out of the air are not particularly viable, cost-effective or smart strategies.
Weâve got hundreds of ways to do things better and simpler. âTeach us delight in simple things â¦â said Rudyard Kipling.
Keep It Simple, Stupid! - I agree with your opinion/sentiment on the environment and the markets. We can only comment on both as events are unfolding at a rapid rate. |
|
