By: lasty49
20/10/2009
4:47 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
With the rise in current commodity prices v US dollar this surely must have an inflationary affect in the US.
Other countries because of their currency strength havent shown that much of a concern as commodity prices have risen with their appreciating currencies.
Oil has double in value from $40/barrel to $80/barrel but not much real difference at the pump.
Its going to bite them real hard soon.
The only thing its saving them is the unemployment where people arent driving to work.
They are in for a shock.. |
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By: glh40
20/10/2009
4:29 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hey Menta :I beg to differ again ;-) you can pay your debt in Gold up to US$200,000,000 and You can Buy food with Gold.....This is the Evolving Gold Market I talk about.....
CME accepts gold as collateral-exchange has allowed gold bullion to be used for margin requirements.
CME's latest move underscored the rising popularity of gold as an investment asset class.
<<<<Now you can Pay your debt in GOLD>>> and we now know WHO is Short Physical Gold ;-) (Greed for Gold rush coming soon).. Higher price Gold.. lower $ dollar Debt...Pay offs off creditor ;-)
http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN19 47457020091019
As for demanding payment in dollars; China has already given the fingure to Large chunks of their Toxic Derivative bets in US Dollar contracts for Commodities, Watch the rest of the World follow.... can you say default... also this is gold Fever ?/!!... lol ..Gold was around this Price more than 30yrs ago currency debaunching had resulted in Bubble in ALL classes Except Gold... $5000 is a done deal and then we have the greed for Gold rush too come....I Know the Top and that's when menta say's he's bought some ;) and Deflationist eventually acknowledge Physical Gold Price is a Currency Event and NOT an Economic event that's why they got it SO WRONG... Hence GOLD"S New Evolution to a Wealth asset par excellence...;-)....bye |
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By: lasty49
20/10/2009
4:10 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
"Then our share market followed US stocks in perfect unison during the initial wave of the GFC."
Our sharemarket followed the global rout as the foreign investor had to repatriate to support their balance sheet.
Do you think they are once again exposed?
I believe risk management strategies are well in place and the conservative approached is well entrenched unlike before.
Its only 12 months ago and turning a blind eye so early would not be tolerated.
Like I have highlighted in recent press snippings, the US market is cashed up.
Infact the FED was thinking about mopping up surplus cash the place is awash with it.
"The only difference being, next time our housing bubble will not survive the turbulence."
The only turbulence that matters will be localised.
RBA interest rate rises or RUDD's Climate Tax.
In other words our ability to service the borrowings.
The safety of the USD is a fallacy.Once it stood proud and mighty but like any good character that has been de-robed and exposed to their flaws, those images are now etched into everyones memory. |
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By: mentawaisurf
20/10/2009
3:50 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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That's right Graham, you can't buy food and you can't pay debt with gold. Creditors will demand dollars and debtors will sell anything they can, including gold, to repay their debts. Gold has been rallying strongly right along with stocks and commodities and all assets in general. There's not just a gold fever mania, there's currently an investment mania in all assets. However, reality will see a major market reversal leading to an unwinding of the carry trade, leveraged speculation and debt bubble that will result in a rush back to the 'relative' safety of USDs. Gold should fall much less than stocks and ultimately end up nearer $600/oz (where it would make for a good longer term investment heading into a future inflationary environment in several years time). But deflation must run its course first.
Lasty, we were told that subprime was isolated to the US and that it would not affect Australia. Then our share market followed US stocks in perfect unison during the initial wave of the GFC. It will be no different next time, regardless of our supposed stronger economic fundamentals, more stable and prudent banking system and our closer ties to Asia. The only difference being, next time our housing bubble will not survive the turbulence. |
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By: glh40
20/10/2009
3:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| G'day menta: Gold is topping !!! as Harrods sells gold bars ,good one ...I call you and see you at $1,220 ;) for Physical Gold, just as I said at $800 gold would soon be over $1,000 and you said possible $600 : Paper gold Crimex/Comex can crash at any time delivering a fatal blow For Price Discovery for Paper gold assets...Price Discovery will transform from US$ Contacts to Euro then to at long Last True Supply/demand not chained by Paper .. Phsical gold will be..... Wealth par excellence and $ash will be debaunched in ALL currencies and as the main Currencies NOW PAY NO YEILD ...Why hold ANY ???..except for you monthly dealings |
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By: lasty49
20/10/2009
2:59 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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I dont care abou the US Menta.
The last 12 months of comparing US home prices to Australia's has proven false.
Why compare?
Certain pockets in the US property market are going against the US trend.
Keen has tried to insist that land,economies and cultures are all under one global umbrella. He has FAILED.
Different tax rules,laws,government structures etc have to be taken into account. |
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By: mentawaisurf
20/10/2009
2:41 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Foreclosures continue to rise in the US with a worrying trend towards increasing prime mortgage defaults. These have the potential to make subprime feel merely like a tremor compared to the earthquake yet to come.
Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/15/real_estate/forecl osure_crisis_deepens/index.htm
While commercial real estate is the next shoe to fall;
Commercial-Mortgage Defaults Jump Sevenfold
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&si d=aQtmIku3P_PA&ref=patrick.net
Ailing Commercial Mortgage Securities Deepen CRE Woes
http://industry.bnet.com/financial-services/100040 63/ailing-commercial-mortgage-securities-deepen-cr e-woes/
And with debt deflation creating a new era of austerity, there is little that governments or central banks can do to prevent a deepening and broad-based deflation;
Debt Deflation Arrives:
http://michael-hudson.com/articles/financial/09063 0ODebtDeflation_SavingsRate.html |
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By: lasty49
20/10/2009
9:06 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
"Most of the outstanding debt around the world is denominated in USD, including the trillions in derivatives contracts globally. This massive pool of debt must be either re-paid or defaulted on."
We know about whats outstanding but surely your not basing your investment strategy on WHEN?
"So all these markets are now in a topping process just as the USD is in the process of making a long-term bottom."
Why should the USD make along term bottom?
What is going to turn the USA around after years of outsourcing their strong manufacturing base to other nations whilst they live on credit and produce income via speculation?
"Only the safest of cash assets in the safest of government bonds and government guaranteed banks moving forward."
Why would you when they are in so much debt?
Thats like lending money to someone who is bankrupt and has no source of income.
There many who believe the US are the be all and end all and cant see the change occuring right infront of them as the East slowly over takes the West. |
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By: mentawaisurf
19/10/2009
11:42 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Graham, yes most of the outstanding debt around the world is denominated in USD, including the trillions in derivatives contracts globally. This massive pool of debt must be either re-paid or defaulted on. When it needs to be re-paid, especially quickly, there will be a rush back to dollars while the defaulting debt will reduce the amount of dollars. Simply put, this means increasing demand for dollars coupled with dwindling supply therefore increasing the value of the USD relative to other currencies. Regardless of the trillions of dollars that the Fed creates, it will be swamped by a massive contracting pool of USD denominated debt. This is deflation personified.
During deflation ALL assets classes lose value. All except one - cash. So Graham is correct that wealth preservation is vital. Only the safest of cash assets in the safest of government bonds and government guaranteed banks moving forward.
Gold has never been a good investment during deflation, but owning some 'real and liquid' gold is a safeguard against all possible contingencies. See goldmoney.com for more on how best to do so. However, just two days after gold hit an all-time high price, Harrod's of London released the sale of gold bars in their department store for the first time in their 175 year history. This likely marks a peak in the gold fever mania and is yet another signal that gold is topping - right along with stocks and commodities and all assets (including real estate). The recent bear-market rally world-wide in all assets was driven by global liquidity flows (an inverse relationship to the USD). So all these markets are now in a topping process just as the USD is in the process of making a long-term bottom. This key market reversal is nigh. |
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By: glh40
18/10/2009
12:27 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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hdmausguy:I hear what your saying,and there is so much conflicting Information and timing is everyting, My eventual Aim is what it is Now Wealth Preservation as we transition from this pan/Anglo Reserve Currency system to the New World Currency or whatever the NWO has in store for us,it's quite clear they have decided to allow the US$ to depreciate,...All OTC Derivatives contracts are in US Dollars there is no way to convert these outstanding contracts to a New Currency So we have to go to Gold First then convert to the New System hence the coming Crash ; this will cause Great trouble for mankind untill we have the New System running ,Not the End of the world stuff, but Many will be ruined as you say the C.L.O.C.K is ticking....ON THE WHOLE RESERVE SYSTEM.
I'm not saying my way was the right way for everyone;I also have picked a mininig company for cents and rode it in to Dollars very exciting and that is past; We are Nearing the end of a Monetary System,I hope you find that winning trade But at this juncture WEALTH PRESERVATION IS VITAL as mentioned the Dow could go to any number but if the end result the currency collapses you have a whole lot of worthless paper....buyng Houses will have a Huge Interest rate against it due to the Hperinflationary environment you mentioned So no-one will want or able to buy one....Lockup = great trouble for mankind.
Any company trying to function in this environment will find it impossible and this will affect all areas of it's business ...No Need for a cave ;) just buy Gold NOW as you will not have time or access to any monies or available gold when this lockup occurs, I don't know exactly when but it will happen.... it is happening...and $5000 will equal 100 NWO Ameros or whatever.....bye
What Happens If the Dollar Crashes (Close gaps in URL)
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_43 /b4152000801269.htm?chan=magazine+channel_new+busi ness |
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By: hdmausguy
18/10/2009
3:37 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| glb40 Just so you know I read a lot of the posts via Kitco & 24hgold & many mentioned here by yahoo posters. There's so much information that it makes my head spin sometimes. A lot of it may be right but what's the point of worrying about things that may or may not happen. ie trying to predict the future. Not much different to saying which horse will win the next race or will it be red or black on roulette? Like you I make a decision and manage it as best I can 1 day at a time. For you holding gold has paid off nicely but looking at the price you paid it's taken many years to come good? One could argue that equivalent cash investments may have earned you more total money especially in golds Quiet years. What's your eventual aim with the gold? If it goes to $5koz will you sell? If it did go that high I'd be a multi millionaire but maybe superinflation would make houses worth billions. I might have to find myself a cave. |
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By: hdmausguy
18/10/2009
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| glh40 In regard to gold shares I have to have a set of circumstances that must align before I invest in particular goldies. The gold price must be on the rise & look to stay strong for a long time.That looks to be the case now. The other thing is to find gold producers that are just starting production and their share price is low enough to get some profit leverage. These alignments don't happen often,just a few times in a persons lifetime. I did this in mid eighties successfully and made enough in 3 years to buy house for cash. Now divorced & wife got that house I'm trying to do it again & have'nt traded for 25 years. Your gold share trades almost certainly had the wrong fundementals and you paid the ultimate price of big losses. Anyway keep an eye out each week for an update on my goldies as this will be live proof of success or failure? I hope to make enough to buy some sort of a house within 3 years,the C.L.O.C.K. is now running. |
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By: glh40
17/10/2009
11:55 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Morning hdmausguy
All those who believe everything is Great and Values are normal...have no need to see these V/clips and I know that's 90%.
This is for you and the 10% who Don't follow the TV Financials... Talking Heads ;)
Gerald Celente-Dollar Is Finished
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7oFl9XL7sg&feature =related
Peter Schiff Gold to Hit $5,000 Per Ounce 07 Oct 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPeFBGRDnQk
Have a great sunday |
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By: glh40
17/10/2009
10:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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G'day Matey
Here's an article on $10,000 gold and I could give many more from extremely eminent professionals in Gold who have a lifetime experience and their price projections make mine look conservative I could not print the real price I expect just as they can't because it will dilute their message about serious concerns for this expansion of the money supply and you yourself have also mentioned the possible losses of $850T in derivatives which are INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE and any Winning positions to be Paid out in US Dollars which are devaluing this time for good... Well $10,000 seems a good Starting Point for Bullion ;)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33277364/
In reply to your question I own a very large amount of both of Au & Ag, due to being able to buy it at it's Low US$250 / AU$400 after catching a falling Knife Something many will not do !!!...So as you can see I don't follow the crowd never did and never will as in Economics 90% are wrong as per K.Gailbraith .
Bullion V Shares ...My passion is for the bullion for many reasons as many yrs ago i was day dreaming gold shares were going to the Moon like you and I Invested multiples of 6 figure sums ,I waited and I waited to no avail ...It Never came ??? and now I have many yrs behind me and can tell you this game is rigged as are the others..(Will elaborate later if you wish)
Choose Bullion as its yours - No counter party risk
Shares are speculation in a rigged game This Oncoming Worldwide Currency Devaluation and Loss of Trillions in (derivatives) will bring about Emergency Plans for Every Country as they will find their Investment in US$ Dollars Spent ...SO be wary hdmausguy you will make some money on the initial Gold rush but soon find out you will be paid in a fast devaluing paper and worst still the Emergency will enact the Gov't to confiscate mines in the Nations Interest and you will get the same again.. a $ payment.and you will miss out on the REAL WEALTH GAINS IN BULLION ONLY......Bye |
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By: hdmausguy
17/10/2009
8:11 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| glh40 - Your on the right track to some extent but a little extreme in parts about the price of gold. What is your view on holding pure gold bullion vs buying shares in the gold mines that dig up that gold. It's a proven fact that gold mine shares will increase in price many many times more than the rising price of an oz of gold.So if you want to make more money this is the way to go. This is because of the scale factor of the multiples of tens of thousands of ounces they produce. Increases of 500%,1000%,5000% and higher are not uncommon. The biggest gains are most often with new gold mines in the early stages of mine production. As an experiment I am going to track & post each weekend the following gold mine stocks & current share price with +/- % gain, listed on the Aust. Securities Exchange (ASX)over the coming months & into next year.I will also post the gold bullion price as displayed on the Kitco site. Once on the ASX home page you put in the 3 letter code,enter,fact heading displayed,enter = Co.trading page & details,incl recent past trading graph chart. All the following 4 companies are listed on the ASX and available to buy and sell. Norton NGF 32c, Catalpa CAH 16.5c,Focus FML 5.8c & Citi gold CTO 16.5c. In particular have a look at Citi gold as a long term investment with at least 10 million oz of proven gold. They are expanding on a rich old gold mine of 100 years ago using modern technology and mining equipment. Obviously the earlier you buy in (cheaper) the more money you will make. One question to you, do you have any gold or silver bullion etc? |
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By: glh40
17/10/2009
4:30 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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My Gold nuggets worth.
What have we learned ?,Grand Larceny by Wall St continues Politicians ,Economists,Forcasters,Me dia continue to deceive the Masses,Gold as mentioned previously now over the $1,000 on it's way to $5000(physical gold NOT Paper gold)(no deflation there,up 20% this yr 10th yr)as countries begin to Puke at their dollar reserves they hold ,IMF Repeated approvals for the Imminent Sale of Gold 400t they DO Not even Hold.??.Oil Nr $80 with No global growth demand ? and no shortage of the Oil itself ?:
As mentioned by Menta (1930s bear market rally) I believe we are but a month away from the next phase down in the US$ as all the fresh $$$$$$$$$$$$ are only propping up Wall St and No $$$ is getting to Main St where it counts...So nothing will improve Jobs etc... Australian House pricing Now around 10x Income are looking for...a pin This would be the crashing USBonds (After) the US$ Dollar collapses another 40% which will then skyrocket Interest rates an event that will make most people eyes water and as I previously mentioned Months ago it would be an attack by forgeign banks and nothing will be left but DEBT...MOUNTAINS of it.:
Now if you had bought GOLD in $2000 it would have cost you $400 an Oz by 2008 it got to $1500 Nearly 4 times Increase unlike what you heard by another poster (NO NEED TO GET AN INTEREST RATE OF 1or2% )when Booking those gains & the Housing bubble has doubled.... CLEAR WINNER IS GOLD...Buy you some While it can be found as it is an Irrisistable commodity which I have the privilage to own since 2000 and COMPLETLY DIFFERENT TO ALL OTHER COMMODITIES :GOLD FOR YOUR WEALTH PRESERVATION just as a foot note the DOW has gone NO-WHERE IN 10 YRS and 15 inclusive of the 25% Currency Devaluation making it 7,500 So if the Dow was to goto 20,000 and lose another 40/50% on the US$ your still standing still. Thats WHY Banks HOLD GOLD AND NOT CORN /WHEAT/in VAULTS
Have a Great Weekend . |
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By: jadeshangrila
17/10/2009
12:24 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang, I am not a gold investor, I had a wrong bet on gold in April listening to some guru and to tell you the truth you never believe what you read completely. My point on
Menta is that his believe in debt deflation has resulted him in missing out on the bull run of the century and hopefully he has not compounded that lost by selective shorting. It goes to show that the wrong analysis with the wrong analytic theory will lead you down the road to personal financial disaster. As for myself I keep my analysis with my team and constantly adding data as they come from various research as well as keeping that eye on the crude price. By the way I am a fan of crude oil and it is 78USD last night. It is what drives this nation and we are now a net importer not a exporter. It goes to show the world is running dry from this precious commodity. |
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By: ang101000
17/10/2009
11:58 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Jade,
given that you invest in gold here is a fairly good analysis of that market:
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_inflation_09 2520093
I don't know Menta and I really don't ever want to know about his personal investments. As such, I prefer not to comment on something that I have no knowledge of.
My comments will remain generic and I don't intend to change my stand on personal investment information. It will have to remain just that _ personal and private. |
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By: jadeshangrila
16/10/2009
10:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| I have never strike power ball before but this bull run was the best I have ever seen in 30 odd years playing this market. It is phenomenal in that many counters have tripled and quadrupled. I went in, in March expecting to lose my pants be homeless but I went in knowing that the Fed was printing and Libor rate was falling and oil prices had plunged. I told Menta I was going in but he prefered to stay on the sideline with his debt deflation talk hehe. Otherwise he would have been fortunate as well. Anyway I do not advise anyone to enter the market now as oil prices are 77USD a barrel and there are signs of inflation emerging I would probably be selling soon as I have forecast that the run will last 12 months and probably end in March before recovering in June and running half steam till 2013. Anyway I could be wrong. Hehe. No body should listen to my advise hehe. |
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By: ang101000
16/10/2009
10:34 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Jade,
I must be lucky, only ever 'lost' $1700 in my life ( and I am not a spring chicken). |
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By: ang101000
16/10/2009
10:32 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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For OTC derivatives data (if that is what you are after) see BIS
http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0905.pdf?noframes=1
New regulation is in the pipeline, keep checking the new for the latest developments. |
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By: jadeshangrila
16/10/2009
10:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Sounds like a pot luck bear hehe |
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By: jadeshangrila
16/10/2009
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| Ha ha Ang, not so sure about his advise on selective short selling of financial or his forecast of market falling below March lows by December or his house price forecast or his USD forecast or his interest rate forecast. If you follow all that you will be broke by now hehe |
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By: ang101000
16/10/2009
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'Menta, most good analyst do not sit around reading books or articles written by others.'
The schadenfreude grates: Why do I believe that the smart money is with the guy who can predict the future (Menta): any old mug can be a genius with hindsight (:Me). |
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By: akdoc1
16/10/2009
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Jay; inflation is driven by the value of a currency being reduced in a sector or nation wide, how it effects certain sectors depends on the activity within the sector (A house cost $500k in 2000 it sells for $550k in 2002 but if you sell for $550k you can only buy another house that would have had the same value in 2000. The $550k buys no more than $500k would of in 2000 so your currency has devalued within the housing market. This does not say your money has devalued in other markets unless all markets are affected) If housing is in demand normally you can expect an inflationary market same with rents. However, if rents become too inflated tenants start finding alternatives like moving in with other friends or family many just stop paying rent. (If Australia did not have rent assistance for unemployed it is possible that many rentals would now be empty and house prices would be dropping as investers bailed out of the housing
market.)
In Australia drivers in the housing sector are often government (first home buyers grants, tax incentives, rental assistance....} or media, price of housing or rents are driven by external inflationary actions they are not drivers themselves in the pure sense of supply and demand, too many varriables exist.
As to given you a return equal living costs during your retirement the government has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. As the housing industry is the only local industry big enough to influence economic activity they are going to protect it any way they can from collapsing. Rentals however, could be hurt by government lowcost rental accomodation if it goes ahead in the future, like all investments you have to learn the market and ride ahead of time, last out loses. |
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