By: firefly_au
Yesterday (2:56 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang :)
I saw your post to me on the stock and shares thread :)
Sorry but I missed what you were referring to unless it is the opinion story on RT. Is that what you are referring to in your post to me?
If it is, IMO it is a good story - a bit dark but still good :)
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (12:53 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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King,
Dubai is what I would call a typical 'red ocean' market (you know all the big sharks fight for the fish and blood flows around). I prefer 'blue ocean' strategy.
King,
good luck with your investment strategy.
Ang |
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By: kingat33
Yesterday (12:17 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| U know something Ang, I've a property developer friend who has been in Dubai for the last five years building properties and came back a year ago with his entire family. Told me that Dubai is a big con as it has been grossly exaggerated. Many big timers have left that place and the media has been very quite about it. He lost quite abit as all his investment gone down the drained and the country is totally not transparent at all. Do u dare to invest in such a place Ang? The media cannot be trusted in these days and though this Dubai thing been going on for months, they never reported it. The same may applies to many countries right now, one such country is Singapore which is equally not transparent and currently building two casinos and lots of developments. Wonder whether Australia will suffer the same fate though with huge public and private debts. Anything can happen to countries and corporation with huge debts. Still Cash is King! |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (11:51 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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King,
there were and will be more casualties of the debt crisis, the are plenty of opportunities for you. The media is focused only on the to big to fall countries and companies but dig deeper and there are plenty of opportunities that don't get attention. |
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By: kingat33
Yesterday (11:37 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| c'mon ang, Abu Dhabi ain't called a white knight if they gonna own Dubai cheaply. The king will also get a piece of action if the price is right, say at 80% discount from today's price. |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (11:06 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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King,
Abu Dhabi will wait and will bottom fish. I agree with the European position. Watch the link to understand my position. |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (11:01 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Fire,
just a note; I am on Chinese (word) computer today. |
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By: kingat33
Yesterday (11:00 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| To those that said Dubai prob is a small one as Abu Dhabi is gonna save it. This is hilarious as firstly, that is an assumption as secondly, if Dubai can always rely on Abu Dhabi, why did Dubai going around the globe borrowing billions from many creditors which is such a hassle when all they should have done is go next door and knock. Isn't it better to owe just one person money than to have ten creditors? Things are obviously not that simple and the truth of the matter is Dubai had defaulted on their loan obligations which will have disastrous consequences globally. |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (10:47 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Fire,
By the time Menta posted his blurb the European market priced in the news. I am sorry, that most of us only have one eye and that is fixated at US markets.
When I wrote my blurb I already had finished reading the US and Eurpe market analysis. For the European position see the link attached(in answer to Ecchi).
The American view is different; according to them Dubai is not a big issue, there is plenty of money Abu Dhabi to 'save' the company involved.
If the American view is correct - Why didn't the money centre (Abu Dhabi) had not stepped in already?
Mentas point was a fact by the time Australia woke up to the news... |
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By: firefly_au
Yesterday (10:02 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang :)
Wow - got into a bit of a spat without really trying didn't you? he he:)
Sometimes this media is extremely difficult to get our views across. So we need to be generous to others IMO :) I reckon Ecchi has been hanging around that useless brawl over on Stock and Share Talk and he gets a bit grumpy as a result. :)
IMHO - Ecchi had a point - 'The ever expanding international debt bubble is showing early signs of the massive burst to come.' Is really more a statement of Menta's opinion than fact.
The economy is showing signs of debt stress - this is a fact. The comments about a bubble and burst are more opinion than anything else even if the opinion turns out to be correct and in future it actually occurs it will then become a fact. IMHO until it actually occurs Ecchi is correct - That's a fact! (pardon the pun) he he :)
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
2 days ago (Saturday, 10:31 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ecchi,
"financial uncertainty = risk is all a figment of my imagination"
Irrelevat Ang, look at YOUR post which this conversation is in regards to not what tangent you wish it to take in order to save face.
Menta "The ever expanding international debt bubble is showing early signs of the massive burst to come."
Ang "Not when he just states the facts."
You STILL don't get it? How much more do you expect me to tolerate? lol
-----------------------
As I 'did not get your point' given my limited English at the time, I'm asking you to watch a video (in British English) that explains RISK in regards to Mentas comment (the non 'fact' part). (about 8 minutes long)
Keiser on 'Tsunami alert': Dubai debt crisis awakes storm?
link
http://www.homepagedaily.com/Pages/article8469-kei ser-on-tsunami-alert-dubai-debt-crisis-awakes-stor m.aspx |
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By: pol_pak
2 days ago (Saturday, 11:47 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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* Wall St sinks on Dubai default fears
* Dubai debt delays revive financial crisis jitters
* Bartholomeusz: The Dubai mirage
Wall St sinks on Dubai default fears
By Edward Krudy of Reuters
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article /US-STOCKS-Futures-sink-on-Dubai-default-fears-Y7G HE?OpenDocument&src=tnb
NEW YORK - US stocks fell more than 1 per cent in a truncated session as a possible debt default by a Dubai state-owned conglomerate led to fresh concerns about the global financial system.
The sell-off was broad, with selling concentrated mainly in the financial and commodity-linked sectors as investors trimmed positions in areas of the market most sensitive to economic uncertainty.
-END--Go read the article--- |
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By: ang101000
2 days ago (Saturday, 11:29 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta and All,
I have promised to find something to cheer you up. Of course, it had to be something thought provoking.
I highly recommend the following article, (not a very long one, 3 pages). It is very fascinating, convincing and supporting your arguments (and mine) about the future state of the economy.
Here is a short extract;
Ken Henry, believes that Australia is headed for a China fueled resources boom that will last to 2050. The economic policy debate in Australia has shifted very quickly following Henry's remarks. The issue now is how this coming boom should be managed. The debate is being led by two big hitters, with Henry pitted against Ross Garnaut. The latter warns that the boom threatens to distort the Australian economy and will lead to unsustainable current account deficits, thus preventing a resources lead escape from the boom-bust cycle. This point is crucial.
Even if Henry should prove to be correct, notice that any long term escape from the business cycle would not be due to the structure of the Australian economy itself. His case depends upon what is happening in the global economy.
I don't want to select and quote short extracts from it, it is worth reading in its totality.
So, prepare a drink and start reading;
'Are we headed for another economic big bang?' by Marko Beljac
http://onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9687& page=3
BTW, Thanks for your earlier intervention.
Ang |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
3 days ago (Friday, 5:46 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, I agree that scenario is possible but with 2 big ifs
If mortgages see a surge in defaults, Biggest cause of this being unemployment or interest rates. But only the most recent purchasres will see 8% interest as unaffordable.
If these defaults are followed by a mad panic, when you yourself keep saying that purchasers are mad bulls looking for an endless upside.
I agree it all comes down to confidence. But becasue of the base we came from (ie higher interest rates to all time lows) I think we need to see something significant to cause a mad panic here.
If |
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By: mentawaisurf
3 days ago (Friday, 5:09 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Pete, if mortgage defaults surge in Australia over coming years there would be a flood of mortgagee sales with dwindling demand (who would want to buy an asset when they believe they could buy it cheaper later). This is the classic scenario during a deflationary spiral (as Ja pan experienced and as is now developing around the world).
A flood of mortgage defaults would bankrupt the mortgage insurance industry (as we have already seen with mortgage insurance companies in the US, UK and other nations going bust).
If depositors lose confidence in a bank, it will collapse - unless it gets a rapid govt (taxpayer) rescue. With any govt deposit guarantee it would take a loss of confidence in the govt to see a run on banks. Some countries may well experience just that (ie. like Iceland did and as Dubai may be experiencing now and perhaps next year and beyond countries like Russia, Ireland, Spain, Italy, the Baltic States, Eastern European nations, some Sth American and Africa nations etc etc). Australia & NZ should maintain confidence in their govts, therefore their banks, regardless of how ugly things may get (and they will get ugly from 2010 - all around the world). |
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By: ang101000
3 days ago (Friday, 4:34 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
I'll give you the link to the most reliable (although not the latest) Australian debt data if you promise to have a break from the markets. The markets are very unlikely to improve by Monday...
I will try to think of something positive to cheer you up.
http://www.aph.gov.au/LIBRARY/Pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp 30.htm |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
3 days ago (Friday, 3:56 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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"A severe housing correction in Australia, let alone a crash of our housing bubble, would necessitate a government (read taxpayers) rescue of our highly esteemed banking system."
1) A decline in housing prices will only effect those banks whos assets were actually sold, and actually sold at a loss
2) You're overlooking mortgage protection insurance |
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By: mentawaisurf
3 days ago (Friday, 3:48 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Moody's reports that there is $10 trillion of bank debt maturing between now and the end of 2015. And this is without the benefit of the securitization market (which is still near non-existent). Bank lending is continuing to collapse, even during this so-called recovery. Despite unprecedented expansion of liquidity and a strong recovery in financial markets, consumer credit continues to plunge. Unless we see a 'real and sustainable' recovery in asset prices and an expansion of credit in the very near future, then the resultant debt defaults would be catastrophic to global financial markets. The deflationary pressures continue to build, despite all efforts globally to re-inflate, as the tipping point into a global deflationary spiral looms.
http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/investments/news/b anks-will-owe-%C2%A36-trillion-by-2015-as-debt-mat ures/1001908.article
An IMF analysts wrote that, "Banking systems remain undercapitalized, suffering from impaired legacy assets and, increasingly, non-performing loans. Deleveraging pressures will likely remain a constraint on bank credit for some time."
Ratings agency S&P declared that nearly all the world's major banks, including Australia's, have insufficient funds to cover their lending exposure. Even with capital raisings by Australian banks totaling $20 billion this year, our big-4 have capital ratios of only 6-7%. Our banks have used raised capital to expand market share in our housing mortgage market - not to reduce debt risk. Our banks are now more reliant on the fortunes of our housing market than at any time in history. Our deposits are almost entirely backed by housing mortgages. A severe housing correction in Australia, let alone a crash of our housing bubble, would necessitate a government (read taxpayers) rescue of our highly esteemed banking system. |
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By: jaymarcel
3 days ago (Friday, 2:53 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Don't have any gassy ones though, have a good weekend all I'm off too. |
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By: akdoc1
3 days ago (Friday, 2:51 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Ang with Yen going up; Panasonic stated it will be losing 20 million Yen per day for every Yen it rises against the US$. J@pan is getting very worried now, government is cutting budget every way they can. |
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By: ang101000
3 days ago (Friday, 2:34 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
'Ang, forget about ecchi, pete, dave or whatever alias he chooses to suit his digs.'
I was pondering to see my doctor for a brain transplant or sex transplant or both...
I've now decided to follow Lastys carbon footsteps and have a few drinks instead... |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
3 days ago (Friday, 2:16 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Peceptions, as I said that has no relevance to the discussion that I was having with Ang. Menta stated some facts and concluded with an opinion. Ang went on to claim everything Menta said was fact, something which she still cannot justify.
Menta, I will gladly continue a rational conversation for as long as the other person continues to read, listen and respond in a rational manner. If I have to explain something 5 times becasue the other person has no rational thought, then excuse me for trying to thump it into them.
No matter how you try to appear aloof Menta, the FACT remains hat you more often that not come up short when questioned about your opinions. If this gets up your nose, please don't blame me for your failings. |
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By: mentawaisurf
3 days ago (Friday, 2:00 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang, forget about ecchi, pete, dave or whatever alias he chooses to suit his digs. His immature and bullying behaviour is typical on some blogs, but not here and it won't be accepted here. If he can't get his way he resorts to irrational tantrums. I say we just ignore him as he has nothing to offer anyway.
As I commented this morning, we are seeing some early warning signs of things to come. My comments about what is currently happening in financial markets around the world is fact. I did mention to be aware of such warning signs at this crucial trend-reversal time, but how these facts are interpreted are up to each person's opinion. However, by the time the global debt bubble crashes, and becomes a 'fact', it will be too late for for too many to take cautionary action. Hence my early warning. |
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By: perceptions_now
3 days ago (Friday, 1:56 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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irrelevant perceptions, read the conversation from the origin if you want to comment on it.
=========
ecchi,
Actually, I did and that was why I asked the question.
You can not make investments based on "facts". As you rightly point out that a fact is something that already exists, it is part of history, it has already taken place!
When we make decisions, investment or other, we are inherently making a choice about what will happen at some future point in time and in doing so, we use the best available opinions, past evidence/trends and then throw in whatever changes we perceive may occur that may affect the likely outcome, in order to arrive at our decision, which by its very nature must be based on foresight, not highsight!
Given that no one has knowledge of all of the information, which may affect any particular decision, there is always a degree of uncertainty involved in any & all decisions, Investment or otherwise!
Hence, the reason for my question. |
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By: ang101000
3 days ago (Friday, 12:57 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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I was expecting a smart-ass comment to cheer me up.
J@pan will only intervene as part of a concerted effort (with USA and Europe).
Cold beer only? How about warm company? Have fun... |
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