By: lasty49
4/11/2009
5:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta
The fall of the us dollar will spark inflation in the us.
The doomers never predicted this.They all thought the US dollar would be strong and that they would be seeking treasuries.
That may have been the case before however with China starting to emerge it's not happening.
Interesting that the major US banks are hoarding cash and Buffett is spending his.
According to one blogger on a different thread the public are getting restless in the US. Cracks are starting to appear. |
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By: stevebwilson1
4/11/2009
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The Disaster Approaches!
It is nothing less than amazing that at a time when the value of gold is going through the roof, some still cling to the belief that all is well with the world economy, (including our own).
Have ye learned not by the experiences of others in days gone past my friends?
Gold value Increasing = Economic Outlook Bad. |
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By: mentawaisurf
4/11/2009
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Jay, all investors have enjoyed the massive credit inflation of the last decade or so. It was only this unprecedented credit expansion that masked the deflation in nominal terms (dollars) while in real money (gold) deflation has been evident since 2000 (as some of the charts you referred to earlier clearly show).
With both bank and consumer credit contracting like never before, regardless of the monumental monetary and fiscal stimulus and expansion world-wide, this reality is finally hitting markets in dollar terms. It started with the initial credit crisis from 2007 and will become unmistakable during the next wave of credit crises. |
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By: ang101000
4/11/2009
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Akdoc,
I thought you are on leave from the silly arguments, good to have you back. Now, write something worthy of you. |
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By: akdoc1
4/11/2009
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Jay, artical on deflation in J@pan you may find interesting. they started before 1995.
http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae8_1_2.pdf |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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| Mate even if it turns out to be true, I could not have enjoyed the last 10 years in the doom & gloom of the elliot wave, I'll just place myself in a position I feel safe (managable debt) & play the game. I'm still finding my method fun & enjoyable even if not the best financial choice according to the elliot wave. But as I say I enjoyed the free read & theory behind it. |
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By: mentawaisurf
4/11/2009
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| Jay, if you'd read his work you'd realise that the 'real' deflation did start back then as he stated. More importantly, what he wrote then is even more relevant today than ever. And that deflation guide is free, along with a great deal of free downloads, articles and updates on their website that you won't read anywhere else. Although I can highly recommend subscribing to the services of Elliott Wave for specific information, timing and pricing insights. They provide a clear picture of what is really happening around the world, in both the big picture and the near-term, unlike the noise from mainstream economists and media that only confuse. It truly would be the best investment you ever make. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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Actually Menta I'm going to stop bad mouthing pretcher as I have just been reading
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=JfCQhWstC7wC&p g=PA452&lpg=PA452&dq=pretcher+tidal+wave+deflation &source=bl&ots=HMUlREkLca&sig=wnefe1D6bTQvUMzgBiqZ iqatSyc&hl=en&ei=n-vwSoG2M8WVtgfB5LG6Cw&sa=X&oi=bo ok_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CAsQ6AEwAA#v=one page&q=&f=false
Even though not a follower it makes for a good read. I am a big fan of graphs with my favorite being page 460 & 465. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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Oh he still talks of deflation in 2004
http://bullnotbull.com/archive/prechter-1.html
This pretcher guy will get his deflation one day, he must make alot of money from books & website advertising as he obviously has not made money out of houses or the sharemarket.
How many websites does he make money from? |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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You must admit it is possible to get 1% deflation for one month, then a return to inflation again.
Deflation should perhaps not be as worrying an issue as it is being made out. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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Menta, You are correct with this statement
'The losers are those forced to sell anything at any price to pay creditors'
But I would never suggest that anyone puts themselves into that position & now that Australia unemployment is going to top out at a much lower figure than previously thought it looks like australian home owners are safe, even more so with the latest prediction of the RBA only taking interest rates up to 5% Max. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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According to the elliot wave deflation began in 2002
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_c omic_stock.html
Try explaining this doom & gloom to anyone that made money via shares or property since 2002. |
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By: mentawaisurf
4/11/2009
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Jay, I don't understand your comment,
Funny deflation is still being talked about the way it is even though it has been disproved.
http://wealth.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039 &sid=a_IZywsbozWg
Deflation is still developing around the world regardless of the record global co-ordinated fiscal & monetary stimulus, unprecedented monetary expansion including QE, bailouts & governments guarantees. Government's and central banks are taking a huge gamble that economic recovery and a prompt return to inflation will save the day. But if deflation continues to win the battle, the asset collapse and debt deleveraging to come will be much worse than if they just let the bubble correct last year.
The only thing that this article proves is his lack of understanding of deflation and it's effects on the economy and society in general. He seems to describe a deflationary spiral without any idea of the devastating effects it causes. I suggest he, and anyone who is uncertain about this timely subject, take a good look at this free guide
to understanding deflation;
http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation-survival-guid e.aspx
The writer of that article is right about one thing though. There are winners and losers during deflation, just as there are from most economic developments. The losers are those forced to sell anything at any price to pay creditors while the winners are those who are debt free and preserve their wealth who stand to benefit from once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities at the bottom of the deflation. |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
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There is no real money in writing books through. The author gets around 10% of the sale price so unless you have huge sales its not going to make you a living.
They have to get smarter with the marketing or go back to crime. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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| It's a bit like a criminal making money out of writing a book. |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
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lasty you can re read my statement I said "In my opinion he is a demographer not an economist".
His demographic information IMO is very good and that is real world stuff, what happens in the financial markets is a different story, changing demographics is one of the fundamentals to be analysed but it does not make the market.
As for selling books, yep, that's part of the business he is in. The books and the press coverage create the profile and the image that allows him to sell his consult services, presentations and demographic reports to large Co's for ridiculous amounts of money. It’s all part of the marketing process |
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By: glh40
4/11/2009
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Gold Sweeps to Record High Above $1,080 PLUS
As mentioned previously Gold has made a new high already and ALL the Naysayers are WRONG Again; even in the face of US Dollar so called strength !!Ha ...What to expect next is $1,100 and I've already mentioned $1,220 a few posts back and all this will ocurr in a US Dollar rising(counterintuitive) environment(Short period) as world markets weaken DOWN to Low yr late 2011,(Cycles-...Oil will see this and bid for Gold sending it flying, Contacts in US oil futures are now being replaced in Saudi Arabia...the writing is on the Wall... World Wide Currency Devaluations WILL Ocurr which will Ignite Inflation in the Most agressive Naysayer Nations who say there is None... yeah right.
Gold (physical) get some as it will be WEALTH PAR EXCELLENCE...be wary of paper gold as it is payable in paper and even comex will try and bribe you with extra $$$ to take a paper return on your winning position....Mines and Western Property in foreign Countries Can and WILL be Confiscated as easy targets when the Next BIG shoe drops the US $...the invester will get.. nought |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
10:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| It turns out you only need a degree in english to become rich, rather than the list of qualifications these two have. |
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By: lasty49
4/11/2009
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"I listened to Harry speak a while ago and what he said made a lot of sense."
Like the Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of 2007?
He and Steve Keen must have been to the same marketing school.
Rule 1
Predict an event in the financial markets and then exaggerate it to the max while signing copies of your book you have just released. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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HaHa, lets just hope someone is there behind the gov with something better than a sore finger.
On Harry Dent I wonder if he collected his award?
http://www.maxfunds.com/?q=node/319 |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
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I listened to Harry speak a while ago and what he said made a lot of sense, In my opinion though I'd say he is more of a demographer than an economist and the underlying trends that he talks of form the base on which governments and banks play.
Gov and bank interventions can have huge short term impacts but in the current situation I'm not sure that they aren't just sticking fingers in a leaky dyke (are you allowed to use that analogy anymore or does it offend a minority group:)) |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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| Except Harry Dent |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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| As you say there are too many variables even for the experts to predict with certainty. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
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| I agree craig I am right ;) |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
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Hi Jay,
I guess that is correct we are primarily either bulls or bears and both sides will have their share of being "right". What I think most people on these posts are trying to achieve is to share knowledge, discuss concepts and try to improve our understanding of complex markets and systems that frankly even the best economists don't understand
Along the way we will probably get caught in the I'm right your wrong stuff but that doesn't really matter as long as there is rational debate |
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