By: lasty49
2/11/2009
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After a recent visit they have inflation alright compared to the rest of the world that is.
Im not surprised to see their prices pullingback to more realistic levels.
Now is that deflation? Negative inflation? or just simply a price adjustment.
There was a story last week whereby a Southern Irish pub owner had to drop his beer prices to keep pace with a Northern Irish pub.
You see N.I. uses Pounds S.I. uses Euro. Since the pound has fallen dramatically against the Euro, people are hopping over and getting discounted beer.
I wouldnt call this deflation.Its more like survival. |
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By: mentawaisurf
2/11/2009
12:25 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Euro-zone Oct. inflation remains negative
September unemployment hits new 10-year high
http://www.market watch.com/story/euro-zone -oct-inflation-remains-ne gative-2009-10-30
Negative inflation? Many still can't bring themselves to using the 'dreaded 'D' word'. But they better get used to it because deflation will become the 'word of the era' over coming years. |
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By: lasty49
2/11/2009
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qitulong,
"No telling how long this going to last."
Correct.
Caution prevails until the next major signal happens. |
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By: qitulong
2/11/2009
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| Hello Mr. Lasty49! I think the pocket is going to be very deep ones. No telling how long this going to last. But i am thinking long time to go we not see good days for economy in the world from now mate! Cost cutting not going to do it. Same ones with needign deepest pockets are going to shed off some of the ones who depend on them pockets too. Everything in the operation gets smaller and more people unemployed.. Everythig become downturning spiral and I am thinking bad days ahead for sure. |
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By: mentawaisurf
2/11/2009
11:37 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, I stated on Friday that;
"Daily volatility in markets jumps during trend reversals, especially major ones, as stocks move from strong hands to weaker hands."
And your reply was;
"Especially when people try and pick tops and buck the trend.
There are no clear signals of a trend reversal. Its merely a correction from an overbought period.
The next few sessions will be interesting."
The next few weeks will be very interesting indeed. |
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By: lasty49
2/11/2009
11:32 am Yahoo! Profile:
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You gotta to love the fear index.. Do they have a love index too?
We are going to see some volatility and if you cant handle the pain.. then take a good lie down..
Volatility doesnt mean collapse or a moonshot.
What it really means is that "Unless you have got deep pockets then dont play". Its the big boys turn to fight it out. |
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By: peter.adish
2/11/2009
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USA unemployment tipped to rise again... And consumer confidence over there is in the doldrums right now too.
I just got back from a biz trip and despite the news of late and given the time of year, (the Yanks always seem to start their Christmas buying/selling frenzy around late October) was somewhat suprised at the lack of "festive excitement" while shopping for some gifts for family and friends at one of the big malls.
The music is playing and some of the stores have alraedy put up decorations.. But nothing seems to be happening.. No packs of happy shoppers...no crowded mall...Shop keepers chattign idly behind counters.. Potential customers few and far between and a general atmosphere of "hopeless acceptance"...
I am wondering if there is anywhere I can look and get a quick comparison between what we saw happening, (noticeable events) at about the same time last year over there.. I seem to remember that one of the BIG indicators of worse to conme was the fact that what had been expected to be a BIG CHRISTMAS spending season turned out to be a FLOP. |
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By: mentawaisurf
2/11/2009
10:41 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| The Volatility Index (known as the VIX or the 'fear index') jumped 24% in the US on Friday. That's the biggest surge in fear in over a year. Any bounce in stocks this week would present a prudent sell opportunity, before the major declines unfold over coming weeks and months. |
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By: jaymarcel
2/11/2009
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Hi firefly, your on to a winner with home grown veggies, I find the best is to have pet cats that have a caged run out from one side of the house, around the edge of the garden then back in the other side of the house (I don't let the cats run free as the attck & injure the wildlife, but just the smell of cats deters most, then have a variety of chickens running free around the fruit & veg patch, I've found SE Qld the most successful area for growing different varieties all year round.
Alpacas are also a good replacement for a dog if your out of the city. |
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By: firefly_au
2/11/2009
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Hi Perceptions:)
Veggies are not hard to grow but outside of the glasshouse you have to be very selective about your choice of crop because the feral critters just love to get stuck into them everything from slugs to birds to massive brush-tail possums come to feast at your patch if you pick the wrong stuff to grow.
For the outside patch around here potatoes, Pumpkin, silver-beat, zucchini, beans and peas are about it. Anything you can pick and taste such as the likes of tomatoes, lettuces, strawberries, figs, almonds, peaches, apples, plums, lemons, mandarins, have to be protected or they are eaten by the wildlife! This is why I am contemplating in the event of hard times, getting some of mine back and eating the wildlife I have been feeding free of charge he he :) MMM Possum Stew - Hey Ang :)
Water is also a bit of a problem as the veggies need the water kept up to them. But Nothing tastes as nice as home grown and ripened Fruit and veggies.
So give it a go if you have the time and inclination.
BYE :) |
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By: firefly_au
1/11/2009
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Thanks Ang :)
I have it now - More good reading :)
Ah well it keeps me out of trouble and off the streets :)
I hope you aren't working too hard - have a good night:)
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
1/11/2009
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Fire, Lasty, Perceptions, Akdoc,
I have uploaded the book again. Tell me what you think of it, if you have the time. I done Finance as part of my MBA and this reminded me of all the things that I managed to forget since than.
here is the link to Didier Sorente's book on ifile
short link
http://ifile.it/ew7gd15
long link
http://ifile.it/ew7gd15/9780691118505.pdf |
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By: perceptions_now
1/11/2009
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Just like a small percentage who actively manage their own personal wealth your approach is the correct one and the majority will struggle.
=========
lasty,
Agreed! |
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By: perceptions_now
1/11/2009
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Perceptions hello:)
We all need to do our bit. If we have any wealth we should be planning for energy shortages by buying Solar power systems and looking at how we can reduce the need for oil in our lives.
Things like becoming energy self sufficient where you live and food self sufficient if we can by building greenhouses converting waste space to veggie gardens and keeping chickens will go a long way to making the future bearable for us and our progeny.
To do any of this we must have some free capital and be willing to put in the time and take a chance to acquire the needed resources. Saving and Investing is the best way I know to be able to use my power to change the future.
BYE :)
============
firefly,
Agreed!
I retired 12 months ago, we shifted houses about 6 months ago.
The new place took consideration of what you were referring to, including NO LAWNS, NATURAL GAS (stove) & SOLAR. The thing it didn't have, has just been installed, which was INSULATION and our "friendly" government even handed over some "tax $'s" as a subsidy.
So, we went for both energy & water efficiency, but I am yet to be convinced on the veggie patch! My expertise on growing veggies would be about equivalent to my fishing ability, NON EXISTENT! |
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By: lasty49
1/11/2009
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Firefly
what you are doing is the correct approach and that is trusting your own instincts.
If your uncomfortable with more risk then don't do it.
There is alot of information out there. Most of it's useless or should I say corporate propaganda.
I agree with Perceptions that there are events unfolding My belief is we will see a change of wealth from the west to the east.
This in turn will no doubt create volatility in the markets.
The days of buy and hold are gone fo the timebeing.
Trends will change more frequently.
Your instincts are your survival and fund managers and fin planners don't have that mandate to chop and change frequently.
Their rules prevent them to do so.
Just like a small percentage who actively manage their own personal wealth your approach is the correct one and the majority will struggle.
Good luck |
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By: firefly_au
1/11/2009
8:33 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ang :)
Hows things with you?
I just checked the downloads of the books that we the "GoF" are reading and I suspect I missed that one. Could you give me the link again please?
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
1/11/2009
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Fire,
have you got the link to Didier Sorente's book 'Why stock market crash?
It is really brilliant and has all current theoretical knowledge base covered in regards to portfolio management and general share market behaviour.
Honestly, for an engineer is an easy read and I have to agree with Billy, that offers more insight than anything I have seen lately.
Please let me know if you have it and seen it.
Ang |
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By: firefly_au
1/11/2009
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Perceptions hello:)
We all need to do our bit. If we have any wealth we should be planning for energy shortages by buying Solar power systems and looking at how we can reduce the need for oil in our lives.
Things like becoming energy self sufficient where you live and food self sufficient if we can by building greenhouses converting waste space to veggie gardens and keeping chickens will go a long way to making the future bearable for us and our progeny.
To do any of this we must have some free capital and be willing to put in the time and take a chance to acquire the needed resources. Saving and Investing is the best way I know to be able to use my power to change the future.
BYE :) |
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By: perceptions_now
1/11/2009
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Let me say upfront that this is not a lesson of history revisited, this is history in the making, we are living thru a once in history event!
Why? Well let's have a quick snapshot of the Major Economic Drivers/Absolute Fundamentals and Global Governments Actions -
1) Population
Now Aging rapidly & Fast approaching it's all time Peak, before starting to fall, as Billions of Baby Boomers fall off their perch.
2) Cheap & Abundant Energy (Oil)
Oil has aleady Peaked in 2005, after the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), had dropped from it's initial ratio of 100/1, down to 10/1 and still heading south.
3) Global Government Actions
To drive all economies, but particularly the US, much further into historically massive DEBT to GDP ratio's!
To do nothing to fix the underlying problems of Population Aging & Expansion & looming Energy shortages!
At best, they have sat on their hands, "they have fiddled while the Economy burnt itself out.
At worst, they have consigned humanity, including your children & mine, into an extraordinarily difficult future!
This is not your standard "lack of confidence", Supply & Demand" recession or a repeat of the Great Depression and you can forget the Elliot Waves.
This is a 9.9 quake, followed by a once in history Tsunami!
This is not about -
The Return ON your Money!
It's not even about the Return OF your Money!
It's about the Absolute Fundamentals
Your question was, "what am I in right now", I think you may already have guessed the answer, which is "I am in nothing"! |
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By: firefly_au
1/11/2009
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Hi Lasty :)
I am sorry I suspect I am about to write a small book in my reply to your last! :)
You are indeed fortunate to have access to such people! I don't have as I am not in anyway related to the finance industry except as a suspicious customer he he :)
I had financial advisors telling me to just sit there and take the losses when blind Fredie could see the trouble that was coming. Stuff that! Since then I have oscillated between equities, Gov't Bonds to cash! I realise with more study and inclination to gamble I could make more but I don't trust my ability to predict the market and get involved in shorting.
Most of the equities I have been involved in up to now have done very well and until now I have not had to decide what to do because a sell signal did not occur. Only now am I seeing the trend appear to reverse and other sell signals co-insiding with it. For these winners I am happy at the moment to take 30%-55% SP profit and run to cash. Some of them got as high as 65% before the correction and I allowed the SP to fall over 10% waiting and watching for a sell signal on the charts.
Unfortunately I suspect the amount I allowed myself to speculate on junior resource companies could be about to take a hit as I am stuck with them due to bad timing on rites issues and capital raising. I still believe they are a good long term investment (Which is why I bought the shares) So I don't want to sell these this early on and realise a loss I don't need to just now.
In the near future when the trend redefines itself I will buy in again. There is just too much uncertainty for my liking just now so I will wait and watch earning interest in cash and bonds. If the corrections continues south I will have most of my cash to buy in later. If it doesn't I will lose the opportunity to make more until the trend is clear.
Do you have a better suggestion?
BYE :) |
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By: lasty49
1/11/2009
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Firefly & perceptions
I consider my sources to be valuable.
They all work in the wholesale markets with access to more information than most.
Like all traders they have an opinion which I listen to.
They don't control my investment decisions they are simply a resource however they see more than many and can identify problems or opportunities.
Yes they gave me the heads up on the crisis that was brewing early in 2007.
I believe that a combination of information is vital rather than just fundamentals or charts as both are influences.
Perceptions I'm aware of the demographic changes but you can't trade simply off that.
Let me put it to you.
What are you investing in right now for this event? |
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By: mentawaisurf
1/11/2009
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Federal regulators close 9 banks, mostly in West; marks 115 US bank failures this year
Tim Paradis and Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writers
Saturday October 31, 2009
NEW YORK (AP) - Regulators on Friday shut California National Bank of Los Angeles and eight smaller related banks as the weak economy continues to produce a stream of loan defaults...
The 115 bank failures this year compare with 25 last year and three in 2007.
Banks have been especially hurt by failed real estate loans. Banks that had lent to seemingly solid businesses are suffering losses as buildings sit vacant. As development projects collapse, builders are defaulting on their loans.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federal-regulators-c lose-9-apf-2271121211.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos= 7&asset=&ccode= |
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By: mentawaisurf
1/11/2009
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Craig, that's a valid point. And when the carry trade unwinds the Aussie dollar will fall - it will fall fast & hard;
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/foreign-speculation- on-our-currency-is-a-bubble-set-to-burst-20091025- heo5.html |
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By: firefly_au
1/11/2009
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Morning Ang :)
Things aren't so bad at work at the moment! A bit quiet but we are still in the black. My comments were more on the hypothetical worst case - like your "prospecting and possum stew and living in a tent" he he :)
My aim to the game now is to keep most of the money I have made from my investments by sticking to my plan and not sitting around and watching it drain away with the SP. Especially when the sell signals have now become quite clear. I will then wait for the trend to become clear and buy back in if and when I see buy signals on each individual stock. Lost opportunity is not the same as lost cash so I will play it safe for a while where possible.
Blast it! On one of my stocks I have a problem selling because of a rights issue which wont be available until later next week... I may have to just ride the roller-coaster on that one. Still It isn't a huge problem and you never know I might buy in again next week with the rest who knows?
BYE :) |
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By: ang101000
1/11/2009
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Hi Craig,
I thought, I add some numbers to your argument.
The pooh-bahs running US and British hedge funds and the banks supporting them are more than capable of reading the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia board meetings and coming to the conclusion that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is committed to pushing up the cash rate from the present 3.25 per cent to 4 to 5 per cent if necessary.
And they are already betting tens of billions of dollars on what has so far been a sure bet. These foreign financial institutions are up to their old tricks. After getting trillions of dollars out of their respective governments to avoid GFC-induced bankruptcy - which was largely engineered by their criminal greed - because they are 'too big to fail', they are already using their influence to maintain 'business as usual'.
US and British commercial banks can borrow from their central banks at a rate less than 1 per cent. The equivalent RBA rate is 3.25 per cent and many pundits are forecasting the rate could go to 3.75 per cent before the end of 2009. This will increase the differential between Australian and British and US interest rates and make the scope for speculative profits even higher.
Since the beginning of the year, $64 billion has poured into Australia in the form of direct and portfolio (share) investment and foreign lenders have switched $80 billion of foreign debt payable in foreign currencies to Australian currency. Most of the portfolio investment ($41 billion) has gone into bank shares. Banks now represent 40 per cent of the value of shares traded on the stock exchange, and while shares in the big four bank shares have increased by about 80 per cent (as measured by CBA shares), the Australian Stock Exchange Index has risen by only 30 per cent.
(Foreign speculation on our currency is a bubble set to burst, K. Davidson) |
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