By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
2:11 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Actually Menta I'm going to stop bad mouthing pretcher as I have just been reading
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=JfCQhWstC7wC&p g=PA452&lpg=PA452&dq=pretcher+tidal+wave+deflation &source=bl&ots=HMUlREkLca&sig=wnefe1D6bTQvUMzgBiqZ iqatSyc&hl=en&ei=n-vwSoG2M8WVtgfB5LG6Cw&sa=X&oi=bo ok_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CAsQ6AEwAA#v=one page&q=&f=false
Even though not a follower it makes for a good read. I am a big fan of graphs with my favorite being page 460 & 465. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
1:40 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Oh he still talks of deflation in 2004
http://bullnotbull.com/archive/prechter-1.html
This pretcher guy will get his deflation one day, he must make alot of money from books & website advertising as he obviously has not made money out of houses or the sharemarket.
How many websites does he make money from? |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
1:32 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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You must admit it is possible to get 1% deflation for one month, then a return to inflation again.
Deflation should perhaps not be as worrying an issue as it is being made out. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
1:28 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta, You are correct with this statement
'The losers are those forced to sell anything at any price to pay creditors'
But I would never suggest that anyone puts themselves into that position & now that Australia unemployment is going to top out at a much lower figure than previously thought it looks like australian home owners are safe, even more so with the latest prediction of the RBA only taking interest rates up to 5% Max. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
1:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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According to the elliot wave deflation began in 2002
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_c omic_stock.html
Try explaining this doom & gloom to anyone that made money via shares or property since 2002. |
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By: mentawaisurf
4/11/2009
12:56 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Jay, I don't understand your comment,
Funny deflation is still being talked about the way it is even though it has been disproved.
http://wealth.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039 &sid=a_IZywsbozWg
Deflation is still developing around the world regardless of the record global co-ordinated fiscal & monetary stimulus, unprecedented monetary expansion including QE, bailouts & governments guarantees. Government's and central banks are taking a huge gamble that economic recovery and a prompt return to inflation will save the day. But if deflation continues to win the battle, the asset collapse and debt deleveraging to come will be much worse than if they just let the bubble correct last year.
The only thing that this article proves is his lack of understanding of deflation and it's effects on the economy and society in general. He seems to describe a deflationary spiral without any idea of the devastating effects it causes. I suggest he, and anyone who is uncertain about this timely subject, take a good look at this free guide
to understanding deflation;
http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation-survival-guid e.aspx
The writer of that article is right about one thing though. There are winners and losers during deflation, just as there are from most economic developments. The losers are those forced to sell anything at any price to pay creditors while the winners are those who are debt free and preserve their wealth who stand to benefit from once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities at the bottom of the deflation. |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
12:46 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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There is no real money in writing books through. The author gets around 10% of the sale price so unless you have huge sales its not going to make you a living.
They have to get smarter with the marketing or go back to crime. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
12:06 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| It's a bit like a criminal making money out of writing a book. |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
11:50 am Yahoo! Profile:
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lasty you can re read my statement I said "In my opinion he is a demographer not an economist".
His demographic information IMO is very good and that is real world stuff, what happens in the financial markets is a different story, changing demographics is one of the fundamentals to be analysed but it does not make the market.
As for selling books, yep, that's part of the business he is in. The books and the press coverage create the profile and the image that allows him to sell his consult services, presentations and demographic reports to large Co's for ridiculous amounts of money. It’s all part of the marketing process |
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By: glh40
4/11/2009
10:58 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Gold Sweeps to Record High Above $1,080 PLUS
As mentioned previously Gold has made a new high already and ALL the Naysayers are WRONG Again; even in the face of US Dollar so called strength !!Ha ...What to expect next is $1,100 and I've already mentioned $1,220 a few posts back and all this will ocurr in a US Dollar rising(counterintuitive) environment(Short period) as world markets weaken DOWN to Low yr late 2011,(Cycles-...Oil will see this and bid for Gold sending it flying, Contacts in US oil futures are now being replaced in Saudi Arabia...the writing is on the Wall... World Wide Currency Devaluations WILL Ocurr which will Ignite Inflation in the Most agressive Naysayer Nations who say there is None... yeah right.
Gold (physical) get some as it will be WEALTH PAR EXCELLENCE...be wary of paper gold as it is payable in paper and even comex will try and bribe you with extra $$$ to take a paper return on your winning position....Mines and Western Property in foreign Countries Can and WILL be Confiscated as easy targets when the Next BIG shoe drops the US $...the invester will get.. nought |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
10:14 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| It turns out you only need a degree in english to become rich, rather than the list of qualifications these two have. |
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By: lasty49
4/11/2009
10:10 am Yahoo! Profile:
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"I listened to Harry speak a while ago and what he said made a lot of sense."
Like the Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of 2007?
He and Steve Keen must have been to the same marketing school.
Rule 1
Predict an event in the financial markets and then exaggerate it to the max while signing copies of your book you have just released. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
10:03 am Yahoo! Profile:
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HaHa, lets just hope someone is there behind the gov with something better than a sore finger.
On Harry Dent I wonder if he collected his award?
http://www.maxfunds.com/?q=node/319 |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
9:51 am Yahoo! Profile:
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I listened to Harry speak a while ago and what he said made a lot of sense, In my opinion though I'd say he is more of a demographer than an economist and the underlying trends that he talks of form the base on which governments and banks play.
Gov and bank interventions can have huge short term impacts but in the current situation I'm not sure that they aren't just sticking fingers in a leaky dyke (are you allowed to use that analogy anymore or does it offend a minority group:)) |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
9:43 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| Except Harry Dent |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
9:03 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| As you say there are too many variables even for the experts to predict with certainty. |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
9:01 am Yahoo! Profile:
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| I agree craig I am right ;) |
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By: craigaharwood
4/11/2009
7:59 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Jay,
I guess that is correct we are primarily either bulls or bears and both sides will have their share of being "right". What I think most people on these posts are trying to achieve is to share knowledge, discuss concepts and try to improve our understanding of complex markets and systems that frankly even the best economists don't understand
Along the way we will probably get caught in the I'm right your wrong stuff but that doesn't really matter as long as there is rational debate |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
7:47 am Yahoo! Profile:
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I did ask once before on one of these forums but nobody answered, my question was 'Do the doomers & gloomers talk of deflation everytime there is a short period of recession (market correction)?
And interestingly enough I probably didn't get an answer because it turns out yes they do.
Look at this from 2001. http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text95_p.html |
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By: jaymarcel
4/11/2009
7:05 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Funny deflation is still being talked about the way it is even though it has been disproved.
http://wealth.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039 &sid=a_IZywsbozWg |
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By: craigaharwood
3/11/2009
9:44 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"Our whole fiat reserve banking system is one giant pyramid. The only thing supporting any bank is confidence. When it's lost, so too is the bank;
Depositors bring down Dutch bank
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8323991.stm"
Menta this is so true, In Australia our banks have no limit to their abuse of the fractional reserve system. Their is no fraction in our system just a requirements to have enough liquidity to survive a 5 day naming event (a bank run) the reality is any of our banks could go under in a week. This is the reason the taxpayer had to guarantee our deposits. |
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By: mentawaisurf
3/11/2009
3:43 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Volatility returns to markets, pulls Dow off highs
Stocks end higher after jumpy trading; economic data don't quiet worries about pace of gains
By Sara Lepro and Tim Paradis, Monday November 2, 2009
NEW YORK (AP) -- After months on hiatus, volatility is back on Wall Street. Stocks ended higher Monday after another day of big swings.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Volatility-returns-t o-markets-apf-3900735626.html?x=0&sec=topStories&p os=1&asset=&ccode=
'V' Is for Volatility:
Clearly, the tenor of the market has changed from "one-way bet" to one in which people are questioning the rally's staying power, for a variety of reasons:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/36451 5/'V'-Is-for-Volatility-Stocks-Back-in-Rally-Mode- But-for-How-Long?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,XL F,QQQQ,FAZ
While not yet confirming a major market trend reversal, coupled with the plethora of technical and sentiment indicators that support the bearish case, this move strongly suggests a change in the 'character' of the stock market. One toward greater intraday spreads and increased volatility which would coincide with such a turning point in the market. |
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By: glh40
3/11/2009
2:59 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Nov. 3 (Bloomberg)
The International Monetary Fund sold 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for about $6.7 billion
Gold for immediate delivery rose in Asia, approaching a record $1,070.80 an ounce
The most important thing is that people want gold even at these prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive &sid=aAkoEr3mFLv0
Make sure you get yours BEFORE... it's ALL GONE |
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By: jaymarcel
3/11/2009
2:23 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Menta that's one of your better links & a shocking one.
It's amazing what can influence & then cause a bank collapse, it must also alarm most banks out there including our own to what power the public have if as you say confidence is lost, lets hope we don't see more of this, something tells me you think this will escalate over the next tweleve months to other banks around the world. |
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By: mentawaisurf
3/11/2009
11:49 am Yahoo! Profile:
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Jay, our whole fiat reserve banking system is one giant pyramid. The only thing supporting any bank is confidence. When it's lost, so too is the bank;
Depositors bring down Dutch bank
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8323991.stm |
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