By: jadeshangrila
17 minutes ago Yahoo! Profile:
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| Menta, I certainly hope you are right, but unfortunately the chances of that happening is unlikely seeing that stocks in most countries have not increase past their 2007 highs. There may be a serious correction in the making but stocks will not fall below their lows for various reason, which iclude impoved profits, bad debts been wiped off the slate by the fed, low interest rates, low libor rates and all that money printed recently. And if oil fell to below 40USD than we will see the start of another rally. Brilliant investors always have a watch out for value and they will be there to buy again if the opportunity comes especially when they are cash up once again. they do not have a fatlistic view of the economy or society rather they watch in cautious optimism for the next round. |
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By: mentawaisurf
29 minutes ago Yahoo! Profile:
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Everyone from traders to investors, super fund managers to international hedge funds and governments to central banks are betting on an inflationary recovery. That's why a deflationary crash will come as such a shock and have such devastating results. Yet the global trend in falling bank credit and consumer credit, despite all efforts by governments and central banks to re-inflate markets, is a clear warning sign of this rare event (not experienced on a global basis since the 1930s).
The USD will soar not because of economic recovery in the US, but because of USD denominated debt deflation and an unwind of the USD carry-trade which has fuelled the speculation and global asset bubbles since the March lows in financial markets.
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) - The decline of the dollar and decisions in the U.S. not to raise interest rates have caused "huge" speculation in foreign exchange trading and seriously affected global asset prices, said Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
"The continuous depreciation in the dollar, and the U.S. government's indication, that in order to resume growth and maintain public confidence, it basically won't raise interest rates for the coming 12 to 18 months, has led to massive dollar arbitrage speculation".
Liu said this has "seriously affected global asset prices, fuelled speculation in stock and property markets, and created new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging-market economies."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&si d=aPggdjyUi.30&
The intensified deflation during 2010 will see the price of all asset classes fall (including gold and oil which will fall well below the $30 lows seen earlier this year). But the deflationary process could take a decade to rebalance debt and asset markets. Given the credit contraction and deflationary unwind started in 2007 don't expect to see any 'real' signs of inflation until at least 2015 ... |
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By: ang101000
Today (10:32 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty,
I will give time; till 4 PM today, is that good enough? Now, I am going for a coffee and a smoke! |
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By: lasty49
Today (8:48 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang,
Give it time love ;-).
The US will continue on its low interest rate policy for some time to come.
The trend remains intact.
The Fed is happy with the US dollars orderly decline.
We mentioned about this area being correctional and we have seen profit takers enter.
The question remains: "Where else are you going to stick your cash?" |
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By: ang101000
Today (8:06 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty,
Viagra isn't working, market impotence persist... |
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By: perceptions_now
Yesterday (9:33 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Germany Faces Economic Downturn with Plummeting Birth Rate and Aging Population
ROME, November 20, 2009 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Germany, the juggernaut of the European economic scene, could be facing a critical downturn over the next five decades because of its dramatically shrinking birth rate and dropping population, a new government report has said. The falling and aging population will result in the eventual disintegration of Germany's generous social welfare programmes, including old-age pensions, the report warns.
The Federal Statistics Office projected a drop in population from 82 million in 2008, the largest in the European Union, to between 65 million and 70 million. By 2060, 34 percent of the population will be older than 65 and 14 percent will be 80 or more, up from 20 percent and 5 percent respectively last year.
"While the number of older people increases, fewer and fewer people will be of an age at which they can work," Roderich Egeler, the head of the statistics office said in the report. "This will have consequences for the social security system".
Germany's 82 million citizens make it the most populated country in the EU, accounting for 16.4 per cent of the total European population. This is followed by France with 64 million, the
United Kingdom with 61 million, and Italy with 60 million. None of these countries have a birth rate that allows for the population to remain steady and all rely upon immigration to maintain population and the work force.
Link -
http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/nov/09112010. html
==========
The Ramifications?
The Alternatives?
Unlike Australian Labor & Liberal politicians views on Peak Oil, where both party's refused to look at Reality, both Population & Peak Oil need to be explored and the Ramifications & Alternatives explored!!! |
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By: jadeshangrila
Yesterday (6:52 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Lasty, you are spot on. Also when Menta speaks about deflation and bear market what sort of time frame on the graph is he referring to over 10 years everything is on the up trend you see a up stocks, oil, houses, consumer goods and etc. In the short term there may be a very slight deflation in goods but over the next 10 years will it be deflation or inflation? What about shares where will they be in 10 years or may be 20 years. You got to see the long term graph of the Dow over a hundred years to understand the long term trend. As for inner city houses which you cannot make like goods or print like money over 10 years they will probably double in USA as well as Australia. It is a sure bet if one has not got the intelligence to win in the stock market. What about, money in the bank? What will the professor's money tuck safely in the bank be able to buy him in 10 years time. |
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By: lasty49
Yesterday (6:26 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta
If people opt to invest their money instead of spending it on consumerables then naturally the data will be distorted but how can you rule out price in increases in shares commodities and property.
That surely represents inflation or does just price increases at Walmart only count ? |
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By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (4:21 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Several Signs of Deflation
When does increasing money supply NOT equal inflation? Answer below;
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/20 09/11/23/Bob-Prechter-Points-Out-Several-Signs-of- Deflation.aspx |
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By: jaymarcel
Yesterday (8:06 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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This is all starting to get a bit silly, are we concerned about unemployment or not, if people can afford to retire then why are we trying to force them back to work when the concern appears to be not enough work for us all. Surely we should be lowering the retirement age if we are concerned about unemployment numbers.
Australia clearly doesn't have a depopulation problem or an unemployment problem at the moment anyway or even in the near future for that matter. |
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By: dexles@y7mail.com
2 days ago (Monday, 2:58 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Depopulation and Ageing in Europe:
The Hazardous Transition to a Labor Shortage Economy
By: Paul S. Hewitt
International Politics and Society, January 2002
This an article which recommends the baby boomers keep working ( although it may be too late for this ) - and have sabbaticals instead of complete retirement - and work into their 70's or longer
to pay for their leisure time themselves - and it was definitely the collapse in *** an's property prices that led to *** an's deflation and twin crisis of depopulation and ageing - which may not effect the US - ( noting the article was written in 2002 )
it is a well known article which most Government officials should be familar with - .
A 'crisis ' is needed to make the boomers go back to work -
and perhaps " peak oil " is that " crisis " , of course I'm not saying that it is entirely fabricated - but if you are a baby boomer - please note that your retirement may need to be shelved,
as part of the solution to the current 'real crisis ' ... as tax increases would be counterproductive for any Government -
as the article states - Hopefully the Australian Government has read this article -
and note that reducing interest rates is also not the answer, as the real problem is a twin crisis of depopulation and ageing - related directly to previous social policies since the previous
early to mid 1900's... ( Perhaps Professor Keen read this article ) |
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By: mentawaisurf
2 days ago (Monday, 11:32 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Spot on Ang. Governments, in particular the US govt with its GSEs like FNM, FRE, GNM & the Federal Home Loan Banks, helped create and nurture the mortgage-credit bubble. In the US today, 90% of all new mortgages are created and funded by these 'governments sponsored enterprises'. Govt is forcing these GSEs to continue lending to practically anyone in a final desperate attempt to keep the housing bubble from bursting. More debt will not cure the debt crisis. It will only make the inevitable crash that much worse. Ths US govt is not alone in this reckless and inane endeavour.
Governments and central banks around the world are doing everything in their powers, and some outside their powers, to keep the illusion going and the psychology of denial intact. This includes Australia with our 'emergency monetary settings', record fiscal stimulus and even free-money to 'support' our housing bubble (read our banks) in the form of the first-home owners bribe (FHOB). With our banks so heavily invested in Australian housing (currently at record levels among our big-4 banks), home mortgages are about all that is backing our bank deposits. A collapse, or even just a severe correction, in our housing bubble would cause a severe systemic banking crisis and the potential for deflation on a scale never seen before in Australia. Again, more debt will not cure the debt crisis. It will only make the inevitable crash that much worse. We are fast approaching our own tipping point (ie. debt saturation which is evident in falling bank and consumer credit levels despite all efforts by govt). |
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By: rossnhoj
4 days ago (Saturday, 11:14 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Agree ang101000 Governments confiscate wealth, they have never ever been able to create sustainable common good shared wealth, The freedom of ideas and doing and individules benifiting from their efforts are the basic tools of wealth creation, then along comes Smithys INVISIBLE HAND the best handout for any Nation. |
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By: ang101000
4 days ago (Saturday, 10:28 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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'So it's no surprise that both bank and consumer credit continues to fall despite all efforts by governments and central banks around the world to re-inflate credit markets and the economy. Deflation is winning.'
I don't believe this; I'm quoting Ronald Reagan; (hummm)
"Government is not the solution to the problem.
Government IS the problem." |
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By: daytrew
5 days ago (Friday, 10:27 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Deflation is created by running out of PUFF, our manufacturing has run out of PUFF because China is exporting its massive over capacity to Australia and the rest of the world including America and with the yuan pegged to the US Dollar China has the advantage. Australia dollar is near on par, this makes the diggers take a two way bet. China is stealing their comfortable profits. The diggers are supplying more and with the higher dollar not diggin happy,Mr Kohler has a good essay out on this matter. Again as in 1991 we have a big manufacturing hole in the ballon and the diggers are blowing with all their might, yes we have a two speed economy,if house building stops unemployment raises --BINGO no more PUFF, |
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By: mentawaisurf
5 days ago (Friday, 3:20 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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A real bull market is one powered by inflation. At the moment we have 'great expectations' for inflation, but the reality is a burgeoning deflation.
Believers in eternal inflation and the power of central banks miss one crucial point: the trend in social mood. It overpowered central bankers efforts with deflation during the initial bear market last year, and it's sure to do so again given the level that bank lending continues to collapse (even during this so-called recovery and historic rally in financial markets). As Bob Prechter points out, "The ultimate success of the Fed's [and any central bank's] attempts to influence the total amount of credit outstanding depends not only upon WILLING borrowers but also upon the banks as WILLING creditors."
So it's no surprise that both bank and consumer credit continues to fall despite all efforts by governments and central banks around the world to re-inflate credit markets and the economy. Deflation is winning. |
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By: ang101000
5 days ago (Friday, 7:22 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Akdoc,
My Chinese partner e-mailed me a four pages long document about the 'head and tail' of the dragon...Thank you for that insight. Don't worry, I not going to repeat it.
In regards to end of year fun on the markets, my view is that after a generally 'bad' year in the economy (given market correlation with GDP), expect more of the same, or if you are in Menta's camp; expect the worst. |
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By: akdoc1
6 days ago (Thursday, 5:55 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Ang; now starts interesting part of year. By now companies will have produced enought for holiday period, next week or week after will usually see payoff starting and temp jobs in retail picking up. What will Santa bring this year? |
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By: rstuarts2000
6 days ago (Thursday, 7:31 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| I don't see proof that people have lost much appetite for credit, at least when it comes to housing. And it has been shown that governments around the world will take out credit on the behalf of it's people in the guise of stimulus to pick up any slack. I wouldn't be holding my breath for debt deflation in 2010. Perhaps we all need to zoom out from the debt to GDP graph and extrapolate further still |
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By: perceptions_now
18/11/2009
11:32 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions,
1) based on the 'fundamentals' is the Oz market under/over/in money valued (in your opinion.
2) And given your answer, the question still remains; is the market rational?
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ang101000,
1) The OZ market is a "follower", it will follow the US, Europe & China.
China & Europe are still attached to the US at the hip (pocket).
The only thing that has changed since the GFC "broke" in 2007 is that an enormous amount of "smoke & mirrors has been thrown at anything that moves, BUT NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE FUNDAMENTALS.
The markets are going DOWN!!! 50% +
2) YES! |
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By: firefly_au
18/11/2009
10:39 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ferratuss :)
I would say it was very relevant for the following reason The equities markets represent over 95% of our sources of real income and wealth either directly or indirectly.
Namely every significant enterprise not wholly foreign owned or owned by the government and funded by taxes. Even small business derives much of their income or products from larger companies an hence are involved!
While governments can for a while operate while in deficit even they can not continue to spend without real wealth being created to generate tax income without severe consequences. The fall in real wealth creation recently is part of the reason our government's budgets are now so far in the red!
Additionally the increase in stimulus spending is another. Stimulus spending would be pointless unless it worked to improve earnings and hence stock prices would increase and the perceived increase in wealth should have increase consumption spending as well.
So we can only hope :)
BYE :) |
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By: ferratuss
18/11/2009
1:54 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| market is probably undervalued due to strick capital gains taxes which are discouraging investment in the market.another question is how relevent is the market to the real economy and what % does it make up |
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By: ang101000
18/11/2009
1:13 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions,
based on the 'fundamentals' is the Oz market under/over/in money valued (in your opinion. And given your answer, the question still remains; is the market rational? |
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By: perceptions_now
18/11/2009
1:01 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions
What are the absolute, basic fundamentals that drive markets.
PEOPLE...Is what you want me to say ?
However the fundmentals which Im talking about are economic indicators,politics,Inter est rates,etc.
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lasty,
You may not agree, but yes!
There are "fundamentals" and there are "symptoms", "economic indicators, politics, Interest rates,etc" are symptoms! |
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By: mentawaisurf
18/11/2009
12:51 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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The global deflationary trend actually started back in 2000 but was masked due to the unprecedented credit expansion over the last decade (ie. credit created and debt borrowed at record levels). The initial credit crunch of 07/08 highlighted the gross debt imbalance globally (of which US subprime was merely the initial symptom).
The current world-wide trend shows that we have finally reached debt saturation (people are unwilling and/or unable to take on more debt for the purpose of speculation, investment or even consumerism) which is evidenced by a record fall in both bank credit and consumer credit around the world. This is despite the historic and co-ordinated efforts of governments and central banks to reinflate credit markets.
All debt must be either repaid or defaulted on. The more debt that is defaulted, and the less new credit that is borrowed, creates debt deflation (which we are in the early stages of since 2007). Debt deflation is merely the symptom of a larger global debt deleveraging that will only intensify as bad debts are finally realised leading to further debt deleveraging, asset deflation and increasing loan defaults throughout 2010 and beyond (as part of a classic deflationary spiral lasting years). |
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