By: rossnhoj
Today (11:14 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Agree ang101000 Governments confiscate wealth, they have never ever been able to create sustainable common good shared wealth, The freedom of ideas and doing and individules benifiting from their efforts are the basic tools of wealth creation, then along comes Smithys INVISIBLE HAND the best handout for any Nation. |
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By: ang101000
Today (10:28 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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'So it's no surprise that both bank and consumer credit continues to fall despite all efforts by governments and central banks around the world to re-inflate credit markets and the economy. Deflation is winning.'
I don't believe this; I'm quoting Ronald Reagan; (hummm)
"Government is not the solution to the problem.
Government IS the problem." |
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By: daytrew
Yesterday (10:27 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Deflation is created by running out of PUFF, our manufacturing has run out of PUFF because China is exporting its massive over capacity to Australia and the rest of the world including America and with the yuan pegged to the US Dollar China has the advantage. Australia dollar is near on par, this makes the diggers take a two way bet. China is stealing their comfortable profits. The diggers are supplying more and with the higher dollar not diggin happy,Mr Kohler has a good essay out on this matter. Again as in 1991 we have a big manufacturing hole in the ballon and the diggers are blowing with all their might, yes we have a two speed economy,if house building stops unemployment raises --BINGO no more PUFF, |
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By: mentawaisurf
Yesterday (3:20 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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A real bull market is one powered by inflation. At the moment we have 'great expectations' for inflation, but the reality is a burgeoning deflation.
Believers in eternal inflation and the power of central banks miss one crucial point: the trend in social mood. It overpowered central bankers efforts with deflation during the initial bear market last year, and it's sure to do so again given the level that bank lending continues to collapse (even during this so-called recovery and historic rally in financial markets). As Bob Prechter points out, "The ultimate success of the Fed's [and any central bank's] attempts to influence the total amount of credit outstanding depends not only upon WILLING borrowers but also upon the banks as WILLING creditors."
So it's no surprise that both bank and consumer credit continues to fall despite all efforts by governments and central banks around the world to re-inflate credit markets and the economy. Deflation is winning. |
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By: ang101000
Yesterday (7:22 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Akdoc,
My Chinese partner e-mailed me a four pages long document about the 'head and tail' of the dragon...Thank you for that insight. Don't worry, I not going to repeat it.
In regards to end of year fun on the markets, my view is that after a generally 'bad' year in the economy (given market correlation with GDP), expect more of the same, or if you are in Menta's camp; expect the worst. |
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By: akdoc1
2 days ago (Thursday, 5:55 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Ang; now starts interesting part of year. By now companies will have produced enought for holiday period, next week or week after will usually see payoff starting and temp jobs in retail picking up. What will Santa bring this year? |
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By: rstuarts2000
2 days ago (Thursday, 7:31 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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| I don't see proof that people have lost much appetite for credit, at least when it comes to housing. And it has been shown that governments around the world will take out credit on the behalf of it's people in the guise of stimulus to pick up any slack. I wouldn't be holding my breath for debt deflation in 2010. Perhaps we all need to zoom out from the debt to GDP graph and extrapolate further still |
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By: perceptions_now
3 days ago (Wednesday, 11:32 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions,
1) based on the 'fundamentals' is the Oz market under/over/in money valued (in your opinion.
2) And given your answer, the question still remains; is the market rational?
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ang101000,
1) The OZ market is a "follower", it will follow the US, Europe & China.
China & Europe are still attached to the US at the hip (pocket).
The only thing that has changed since the GFC "broke" in 2007 is that an enormous amount of "smoke & mirrors has been thrown at anything that moves, BUT NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE FUNDAMENTALS.
The markets are going DOWN!!! 50% +
2) YES! |
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By: firefly_au
3 days ago (Wednesday, 10:39 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Ferratuss :)
I would say it was very relevant for the following reason The equities markets represent over 95% of our sources of real income and wealth either directly or indirectly.
Namely every significant enterprise not wholly foreign owned or owned by the government and funded by taxes. Even small business derives much of their income or products from larger companies an hence are involved!
While governments can for a while operate while in deficit even they can not continue to spend without real wealth being created to generate tax income without severe consequences. The fall in real wealth creation recently is part of the reason our government's budgets are now so far in the red!
Additionally the increase in stimulus spending is another. Stimulus spending would be pointless unless it worked to improve earnings and hence stock prices would increase and the perceived increase in wealth should have increase consumption spending as well.
So we can only hope :)
BYE :) |
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By: ferratuss
3 days ago (Wednesday, 1:54 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| market is probably undervalued due to strick capital gains taxes which are discouraging investment in the market.another question is how relevent is the market to the real economy and what % does it make up |
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By: ang101000
3 days ago (Wednesday, 1:13 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions,
based on the 'fundamentals' is the Oz market under/over/in money valued (in your opinion. And given your answer, the question still remains; is the market rational? |
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By: perceptions_now
3 days ago (Wednesday, 1:01 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions
What are the absolute, basic fundamentals that drive markets.
PEOPLE...Is what you want me to say ?
However the fundmentals which Im talking about are economic indicators,politics,Inter est rates,etc.
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lasty,
You may not agree, but yes!
There are "fundamentals" and there are "symptoms", "economic indicators, politics, Interest rates,etc" are symptoms! |
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By: mentawaisurf
3 days ago (Wednesday, 12:51 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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The global deflationary trend actually started back in 2000 but was masked due to the unprecedented credit expansion over the last decade (ie. credit created and debt borrowed at record levels). The initial credit crunch of 07/08 highlighted the gross debt imbalance globally (of which US subprime was merely the initial symptom).
The current world-wide trend shows that we have finally reached debt saturation (people are unwilling and/or unable to take on more debt for the purpose of speculation, investment or even consumerism) which is evidenced by a record fall in both bank credit and consumer credit around the world. This is despite the historic and co-ordinated efforts of governments and central banks to reinflate credit markets.
All debt must be either repaid or defaulted on. The more debt that is defaulted, and the less new credit that is borrowed, creates debt deflation (which we are in the early stages of since 2007). Debt deflation is merely the symptom of a larger global debt deleveraging that will only intensify as bad debts are finally realised leading to further debt deleveraging, asset deflation and increasing loan defaults throughout 2010 and beyond (as part of a classic deflationary spiral lasting years). |
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By: jaymarcel
3 days ago (Wednesday, 8:24 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Menta, how is the debt saturation point known, for me the USA just had a recession like any other but your saying there is a debt saturation which sounds to me like something made up for a magazine article.
Doesn't the debt saturation point moved every time money is printed or a debt is paid off or bankruptcy is claimed.
I feel a bit silly talking about something you just made up sorry ;)
Another thing is people keep talking of money being created from nothing such as debt levels being raised through housing & other assets but if someone claims bankruptcy & owes $10 million, if their assets are liquidated to the value of $1 million does that not mean that $9 million has just been wiped out of the market with nothing traded. |
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By: glh40
4 days ago (Tuesday, 10:58 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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<<< gold fever is evident everywhere you look, even our Fin Review had gold as its cover story on the w/end).>>>
Nah !!Yuk !!!..don't tell me, Say it's Not True...They actually used THAT FOUR LETTER WORD... GOLD...,that nasty horrible stuff used by UNSOPHISTICATED INVESTORS...on the Front Page of the Fin no less... What is the World coming too !!!....;) Ha Ha Ha... your killing me !!!
What to Expect is the usual end of Month Shenaniganns when Options Expire... then GOLD will make a New High middle of DEC $1,220....The World has Set course for WW Devaluations as mentioned many Months ago.
This makes currencies dangerous to own and their bonds subject to default....
<<< gold fever is evident everywhere you look >>>
Huh
When the People Wake Up to Buying Gold, there will be... NONE
At the moment they are SELLING their Gold at the Malls to the Multi/Corps...Gold is NOT on the Radar of the Mass Unwashed .
<<<"Does any of you believe that the market is rational?">>>
Because we are NOT Privy to the RISKs taken by the BANKS ..The Fed/Reserve can keep us (the people) all in the dark... which leads to all these Counterintuitive markets.
REAL PHYSICAL GOLD IS INSURANCE AGAINST THIS INSTABILITY ;) |
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By: ang101000
4 days ago (Tuesday, 5:22 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Please Sir, can I have some more? |
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By: mentawaisurf
4 days ago (Tuesday, 5:10 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Forget Your Inflation Fears, Think About Investing for a Deflationary Environment;
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/37308 4/Forget-Your-Inflation-Fears-Think-About-Investin g-for-a-Deflationary-Environment?tickers=%5Edji,%5 Egspc,EEM,dia,spy,XHB,DBC |
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By: lasty49
4 days ago (Tuesday, 4:53 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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"There is nothing left to keep the asset bubbles inflated, either here or around the world, especially once the global liquidity flows reverse and the USD carry trade unwinds."
Well dont lose money trying to second guess it. |
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By: guy.longshank1
4 days ago (Tuesday, 4:51 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Great post mentawaisurf!
Why is it that some people refuse to see what is right in front of their faces? |
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By: mentawaisurf
4 days ago (Tuesday, 4:44 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| Jay, the US reached debt saturation before us (subprime was the tipping point and since then the US has experienced an unprecedented credit contraction) while our banks and government have extended the final credit tipping point to Australians (cheap money from banks and free money from government) to achieve a similar debt saturation level here today. We are likewise now experiencing the start of credit contraction (both bank and consumer credit). There is nothing left to keep the asset bubbles inflated, either here or around the world, especially once the global liquidity flows reverse and the USD carry trade unwinds. |
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By: lasty49
4 days ago (Tuesday, 3:03 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Menta,
Yes they herd which forms a trend.
How long that trend remains is yet to be determined by simple mathematical formulas, although many claim they have the secret code. |
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By: lasty49
4 days ago (Tuesday, 2:56 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Perceptions
What are the absolute, basic fundamentals that drive markets.
PEOPLE...Is what you want me to say ?
However the fundmentals which Im talking about are economic indicators,politics,Inter est rates,etc. |
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By: jaymarcel
4 days ago (Tuesday, 2:42 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hang on a minute, you were calling a property crash in Australia well before the USD crashed out, or are you talking of a US property crash as that happened before the USD crash?
Sounds like you think the US property is at a high & about to crash.
Do you mind just clarifying please menta I may be mis-interpreting your statement. Thanks |
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By: perceptions_now
4 days ago (Tuesday, 2:40 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Fundamentals are an influence.
==========
lasty,
What are the absolute, basic fundamentals that drive markets?
Not the symptoms, but the absolute, basic fundamentals that drive markets? |
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By: mentawaisurf
4 days ago (Tuesday, 2:28 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, most investors herd, even the smart ones, which is why optimism is typically near extreme at markets highs (like now) and pessimism at extreme near market lows (like back in March). Sentiment is crucial in making rational investment decisions based on market timing. For example, currently virtually everyone is pessimistic about the USD while the opposite is true of stocks, commodities and especially gold (gold fever is evident everywhere you look, even our Fin Review had gold as its cover story on the w/end).
On sentiment alone you could make a case that we are near a bottom in the USD and a top in stocks, commodities, precious metals, oil, real estate and generally all assets that rallied so strongly due to global liquidity flows and the mother-of-all carry trades (an inverse relationship to the USD). This key market reversal is nigh. |
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