By: robinh2772
2/11/2009
5:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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You keep embarassing yourself. Why are you talking about a building in downtown Manhattan known colloquially as "Citicorp"? When you say "Citicorp", do you actually mean the international financial conglomerate Citigroup? CITICORP is a building downtown Manhattan. It is colloquially known as CITICORP but officially known as Citicorp Center.
Keep reading and maybe one day you'll be able to predict the start of the next economic depression with some credibility.
Jezzus... No wonder this forum is known as a home for fruitcakes. Thats it from me. Got better places to be. As I said, keep reading. You'll eventually get it right. |
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By: lasty49
2/11/2009
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hdmausguy,
Citigroup is an American flagship/Icon.
Do you think that they will let it fall?
Its corporate America for god sake. |
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By: hdmausguy
2/11/2009
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| robin - Just been doing a little background on CITICORP and as it turns out I may have not been too far off the mark afterall. In recent years CITI has had 3 FED bailouts. The last one gave the US govt. a 38% share of CITI. The word is that they are on the precipice and could fold before the end of the year. Debt defaults and speculation failures are their biggest enemy. Perceptions has already covered many other big players also at risk. |
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By: perceptions_now
2/11/2009
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1) Is this also the prediction for Australia?
YES!
3) I'm not sure it can be improved, apart from making the people involve more responsible for outcomes
There are a number of problem areas, probably too long to go into now, as I am due to be elsewhere.
However, we could start with -
1) Proper systemic regulation, which look s after the long term interests of all Australians, with consideration for Global flow on.
The removal of "undue influence on legislators", from all quarters, punishable by serious "time" inside for those doing the influence & those accepting the influience.
3) Writing the Real job description of Polliies into the constitution, as being "to look after the long term interests of ALL Autralians, without fear or favour"
4) A Reduction in the levels of government, from 3 to 2, by doing away with local government (Councils) altogether and put those duties under a state or Federal Authority. |
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By: perceptions_now
2/11/2009
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As an aside, a quick look at the last 5 years for the major US Banks (C, BAC, MS, GS & JPM), will quickly reveal who has the best IT (Insider Trading), As for CIT, it is just "another brick in the wall".
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By the way, I would sugget that at least 3 of those major US banks would probably now be insolvent, IF proper account practices were still being applied, by way of Mark to Market accounting.
As it is, US banks can and no doubt have placed unrealistic valuations on their assets, such as Residential & Commercial real estate, by putting in the pre crash valuations, instead of the current written down valuations, which would be 30-50 lower? |
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By: jaymarcel
2/11/2009
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perceptions,
1) Is this also the prediction for Australia?
2) Sorry misunderstood your comment (I agree)
3) I'm not sure it can be improved, apart from making the people involve more responsible for outcomes rather than just letting them walk away upon any outcome. But at the end of the day capitalism & democracy passes most of the responsibility onto the individual to do research, many people have not been affected by the failures mentioned by simply not getting involved with companies that a so vulnerable.
If property crashes next week I will not look for systems or individuals to blame, I will just have learnt some valuable lessons & have to start again, accepting my own responsibility as an adult in control of where my money goes. |
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By: jaymarcel
2/11/2009
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| sorry hdmausguy I thought you was calling the recent collapse the first, the last was caused by the war anyway |
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By: worldwider1
2/11/2009
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guy.longshank1 said: "Here at home we see the clear signs of trouble on the horizon.. UNABLE to support itself, the government announces yet another stimulus effort to prop up the failed economy which trade in itself is as yet unable to sustain..."
In addition, the gov't continues to divert attention away from its fiscal mistakes by demonising asylum seekers and fooling the public into thinking the problem is solved by creating more detention center spaces. In effect both parties are engaged in a bidding war to see who can spend more taxpayer dollars on the harshest of policies.
Happy Melbourne Cup Day! |
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By: hdmausguy
2/11/2009
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| robin - A minor error(CITI) which I corrected. According to your thinking CIT & $100 billion loss is nothing? The biggest 4 bankruptcies in the last year totals around $1.21 Trillion. Again nothing to worry about? US Govt. broke but printing money saves the day.Only a minor problem,a trivial matter? Most States broke,what's the worry? The main problem is we have too many doom & gloom merchants? If we pretend all is well then it must be,just like the captain of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. |
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By: perceptions_now
2/11/2009
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!) perceptions are you trying to say australia is going to have a fall in population?
2) Cheap & abundant oil? From where?
3) So are you suggesting we move away from capitalism & towards communism?
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jay,
1) Yes, in the medium to longer term, as will be the Global trend. Assuming nothing else intervenes that should start, in earnest, around 2030 -2040, but the rate of population increase has already been slowing for some time.
Consider what may now be the situation, if China had not opted for their one child policy in 1979 and if the " Oral Contraceptive Pill" had not been introduced for wide spread usage in the 1960's.
2) Yes, that is the point! The days of "cheap & abundant Energy (Oil) have gone! They finished around 2005, as the Global Production of Oil started to fall. Whilst short term ramp ups may still be possible, in the medium to longer term Oil Production has Peaked. Not only has it Peaked, but the cheaper reserves, which are depleting quickly, are being replaced mainly by higher priced, lower returns (EROEI) and also by the less environmentally friendly varieties, such as Tar Sands, Shale & likely pushes into the Artic & Antartic areas.
3) No! But the 1.0 version will have to evolve and quickly! The alternative of staying with the status quo, will not only not prove viable, it will prove to be impossible!
As an aside, a quick look at the last 5 years for the major US Banks (C, BAC, MS, GS & JPM), will quickly reveal who has the best IT (Insider Trading), As for CIT, it is just "another brick in the wall". |
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By: hdmausguy
2/11/2009
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| On this occasion jay I must tell you "wake up & go to sleep" What happened in the financial world in the USA 80 years ago? |
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By: jaymarcel
2/11/2009
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perceptions are you trying to say australia is going to have a fall in population?
Cheap & abundant oil? From where?
So are you suggesting we move away from capitalism & towards communism? |
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By: perceptions_now
2/11/2009
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Next Stop???
Let me say upfront that this is not a lesson of history revisited, this is history in the making, we are living thru a once in history event!
Why? Well let's have a quick snapshot of the Major Economic Drivers/Absolute Fundamentals and Global Governments Actions -
1) Population
Now Aging rapidly & Fast approaching it's all time Peak, before starting to fall, as Billions of Baby Boomers fall off their perch.
2) Cheap & Abundant Energy (Oil)
Oil has aleady Peaked in 2005, after the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), had dropped from it's initial ratio of 100/1, down to 10/1 and still heading south.
3) Global Government Actions
To drive all economies, but particularly the US, much further into historically massive DEBT to GDP ratio's!
To do nothing to fix the underlying problems of Population Aging & Expansion & looming Energy shortages!
At best, they have sat on their hands, "they have fiddled while the Economy burnt itself out.
At worst, they have consigned humanity, including your children & mine, into an extraordinarily difficult future!
This is not your standard "lack of confidence", Supply & Demand" recession or a repeat of the Great Depression and you can forget the Elliot Waves.
This is a 9.9 quake, followed by a once in history Tsunami!
This is not about -
The Return ON your Money!
It's not even about the Return OF your Money!
It's about the Absolute Fundamentals! |
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By: jaymarcel
2/11/2009
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Hi hdmausguy,
'What is now starting is the 2nd GREAT DEPRESSION'
Where was the first great depression, so far the world has had a recession which australia avoided but you talk of a second great depression I must have missed it.
Good luck on getting that cheap house anyway as you will be competing with the big money holders then, that is if your happy to spend your cash whilst the world is falling apart around you as your forecast predicts. |
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By: dr.xingli_writes
2/11/2009
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robinh2772 -
The person who you are attempting to ridicule is a respected and welcome member of a regular group of people who post interesting and varied comment on these pages.
You, on the other hand are an unknown.
Albeit that am not a Yahoo Moderator, like most of the people who are kind enough to frequent these pages, (not just this BLOG) I welcome comment whether it be in agreement or disagreement as long as it is not rude or offensive in nature.
Though you are more than welcome to contribute politely IYHO, please be kind enough to post offensive comment elswhere.
This really is a place for mature converse. The video arcade is just around the corner.... |
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By: robinh2772
2/11/2009
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| I simply can't get over it. It's absolutely astonishing. Someone who doesn't know the difference between CIT and CITI is telling us that we are on the verge of a great depression. It's not just absolutely astonishing, it is absolutely laughable. Little wonder this site has so very few contributors of useful information and so many nut cases/pessimists. |
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By: robinh2772
2/11/2009
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| ...but it will be impossible for us to delete from our minds your obvious ignorance of even the most simple fiancial facts. |
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By: sly.guy_nsw1
2/11/2009
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No problem mate!
By the way, what has "SKIPPY" got to say about all this? |
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By: lasty49
2/11/2009
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Hdmausguy,
The news of CIT being in trouble was noted back in July 2009.
There was very little doubt that it wouldnt head to bankruptcy/Chapter 11.
The equity markets were in a position for a corrective stance.
We saw this move lower the other day followed by a surprised US GDP no. which spooked the market and the shorts got squeezed.
Commentators need an excuse for the markets to move.
FYG here is the article back in July
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124768727832747201 .html |
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By: hdmausguy
2/11/2009
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| Thanks sly - Correction, delete reference CITI in my last 2 posts. |
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By: hdmausguy
2/11/2009
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| 4 out of 5 of the biggest US corporate collapses have occurred in the past year(approx.) Leaving out #3 WorldCom Telecom2002 #1. Lehman Bros. Sept.08 $691 billion #2.Wash.Mutual Sept.08 $327.9 billion #4. CIT/CITI Nov.09 $100 billion #5. GM $91 billion. Most USA state & local Goverments are in the red. Only 2 are in the black. California is bust,it had the 8th biggest GDP in the world. Unemployment is over 25% in many areas. Illegal immigrants from Mexico,9 million people,are a major problem. The war on terror is a huge drain on funds. It's only a matter of time before they throw in the towel. Then the panic will start.A run on ATMs & banks like in UK last year. Mass panic & disorder will be impossible to contain. Some US posters on the Kitco gold thread have said they have bunkers set up with a years supply of food & plenty of ammo.They reckon it will be every man for himself? |
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By: sly.guy_nsw1
2/11/2009
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G'day hdmausguy
Hmmm . . CIT is not CITI mate!
The US government refused to shore up CIT, deeming it "not too big to fail"... Hence the Chapter 11 plea we read about as having just been filed.
CITI on the other hand was deemed to be "too big to fail" by the US government and has already received millions of dollars in tax payers money, (thankfully theirs, not ours) to prevent it's collapse.
But I agree with much of what you say about the economic challenges we are facing here at home also. |
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By: hdmausguy
2/11/2009
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| Jay - Did you see the news this morning CIT/CITI has gone bankrupt under the weight of commercial loan defaults. This puts it the 4th largest collapse in US history,ahead of G M . 115 US banks have gone bust this year. Sure you may be correct that the GFC is ending? What is now starting is the 2nd GREAT DEPRESSION. Just like the 1st one Australia suffered severely too. These many warnings jay will eventually become reality. You seem to think that while the rest of the world crashes the Australian economy will cruise along pretty much like it does now. Property investors will suffer large $$$ losses too. Australian banks are at risk due to a high mortgage exposure. Defaults brought CITI down & defaults will bring our banks down too. It's 80 years since the Gt.Depression. 3 generations that have lived in relative boom times. A look at the J curve debt chart tells the story. With current financial structures operating a.n.a.l.y.s.t.s. show that the USA can never pay off the debt because growing liabilty is exceeding income. Australia is only a small fish in world economics with about 2% global GDP. I'm cashed up & debt free. So probably in a few short years I'll get myself a house at only a fraction of their current price. It's already reality in the US and starting to emerge here. |
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By: jaymarcel
2/11/2009
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| Steve, 'So it is written and so it will come to pass' ? , when you have finished fortune telling maybe you should put down your crystal ball & read the news & look into the facts of good news flowing through that the GFC is near ending. Especially in Australia |
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By: stevebwilson1
1/11/2009
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Excellent!
Indeed. Lets make hay while the sun shines.. But forget not to store it safely away in advance of the storm .. For to not do so would be to throw away whatever finacial advantage one may have been fortunate to gain in the time gone past.
ACT with caution.. Fear the worst. For after the sumer comes the autumn and after the Autumn comes the Winter.
So it is written and so it will come to pass. |
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