By: mentawaisurf
5 days ago (Monday, 12:43 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Jay, i don't know if Jim Chanos is selling any books (he is a billionaire after all and outed Enron at it's peak back in 2001 and is now doing the same on China) but I do know Switzer is actively marketing his profile, website and financial services on the internet, tv and print media. I guess you'd call it 'business'.
There is alot of false pricing with China (not just its currency). And China's supposed recovery and resultant resources boom for Australia has already been priced into the market. As reality dawns, such pricing will quickly unwind (along with Australia's hopes and 'prayers' for economic recovery). |
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By: jaymarcel
5 days ago (Monday, 12:18 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Menta, thanks for the links, sorry to see your backing yet another book writer & one that talks of a china collapse back in 2001 ??????
The only concern I have over China is if it continues to stop its currency from floating at its true value, the financial world needs to change for the better & this false pricing is not helping. |
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By: mentawaisurf
5 days ago (Monday, 12:13 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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Peter Switzer now recommends two prayers. First, keep on praying for China and second, pray James Chanos is wrong this time!
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/switzer/finance/26112009/c hina_too_big_fail.html
My money is on James Chanos;
http://forexblog.oanda.com/20091112/bears-say-chin as-economy-set-to-collapse/ |
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By: jaymarcel
5 days ago (Monday, 12:12 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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I'm off to Malaysia again soon for a few weeks will let you know how they are coping in the recovery, my girlfriends brother has just started a new business in KL doing the 3D rendering for new projects coming up & says he is so busy he has to start employing people (currently just him & couple of mates).
Her sister is a financial adviser in a big multi company they laid off most of their foreign works at the end of last year (who cost about 10 times more than locals) & have been recruiting locals to do the same work now the recovery appears to be getting a grip there.
Malaysia is another country whose property market was untouched by the crisis. |
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By: rodneysaviour2
5 days ago (Monday, 11:30 am) Yahoo! Profile:
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Hello jacobsbishop!
The P. R. of China has Prospered and her industrial might grown beyond all expectations.
During the last ten years, the appearance of many of the major cities in China has changed to such an extent that a person who visits one after an abscence of but a year or so will be amazed at the changes.
These “visible” changes to the “face of China” which by far most foreign visitors are exposed are in itself a clear indication of success and prosperity of the nation.
However, lest we too easily forget the success and prosperity which resulted in the developments and improvements which you have seen and written about below came about ONLY because of the wealth accrued during years of constant and ever increasing demand made upon P. R. of China based industry to "gear up" to meet a demand which blossomed prior to its sudden & almost complete, (comparatively speaking) disappearance in late 2008. |
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By: jacobsbishop
6 days ago (Sunday, 11:16 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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To: Qitulong,
This year, i have travelled to more than 10 cities within China... They may not have prospered as much as Shanghai or Beijing but most of them definitely look more well off than alot of cities within some cities in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia or even Taiwan!
Yes, there are quite a good percentage of Shanghai offices that are vacant but this is part of how a growing country or city is like! Every country has empty offices or shops but this is just like any country... maybe shanghai has about 5% more than alot of major cities in and around the world!
Shanghai is definitely not a ghost town... there are more than 25million people in this city... maybe even more than this figure. The land area is less than 500sqkm. Can u call this a ghost town? This land area is less than 5% the size of Australia but has a population that is at least 3million more people? Ghost Town? Australia or Shanghai?
I agree that Chinese Businessman that is in the export industries as well as the Chinese Government is praying that America will regain their momentum of growth or at least economic stability... but this possiblity in the short term is not realistic...with an unemployment rate of 10.2% in America... how can this be done overnight! It is also in the interest of most countries that America will be well again but ... |
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By: qitulong
6 days ago (Sunday, 7:10 pm) Yahoo! Profile:
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| SHANGHAI is bad example. You should know it. P. R. of China is very big country with many people living there. SHANGHAI justone big city that grew at extra large speed as result of increases in international trading which happened up until the economy downturn resulted in world financial instability in mid and end of `08. SHANGHAI is filled with empty office buildoings and closed factories everywhere on outskirts now. Just tak a close look. Even I watched very good online orivate made documentary about it recently. Of course, P.R. of China Government do not say such things. But it is true that SHANGHAI is really like ghost city now. Business in China all but collapsing and governent praying for return of economic strength in America so that they can find demand for products made and business get better. |
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By: jacobsbishop
25/11/2009
7:18 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Continue:
34,000RMB per square metres. The cheapest apartment within the outer ring of Shanghai usually cost about 9000 - 11,000RMB per sq metre... these are the cheapest in Shanghai. For an apartment of 100sq metres... it will easily cost more than RMB1million or about A$170,000. Personally to me, it is more expensive than in Australia as a similar apartment in the outskirts of the Australia (about 20from city centre) will probably cost between A$250,000 to A$350,000 ... but in Australia... it is a freehold property while the apartment in China is only for a leasehold of 70 years. And considering the average income in Shanghai is only RMB2,000 for a bachelor graduate compared with about A$1,800 for a similar graduate in Australia or Singapore... the cost of property is IMPOSSIBLE for most to own in these large cities. The average cost of a property in smaller cities is between RMB1,500 - RMB4,000 per square metres... while their average income is about RMB1,000 for a graduate.
The property prices are still very high and the government here is trying to bring it to more affordable level by offering cheap housing for the poor. Property developers over the last 6 months has continued to break records in their bidding prices of land... SO THERE MUST BE SOME MORE DEMAND ...SO SOME OF THESE RAW MATERIALS ARE also to be used for building of residential and commercial properties.
Every 12 months... a new facelift if u are here long enough!
The world is much smaller now! Every country cannot live without the other without hurting their own economy... if china collapse, besides America... Australia will be badly affected too as Australia is one of the largest supplier of raw materials to China!
Think again! |
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By: jacobsbishop
25/11/2009
7:00 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Dear All,
I think alot of u either has not been to Shanghai and Beijing over the last 6 years to see some things that is unthinkable in Australia or Americal.
Before i proceed, let me clarify a few things>
1.) Shanghai is not sinking in anyway i know... at least not in the next 20 years... when i said the building of some very tall buildings in Shanghai (more than 80 floors)... they require piling by more than 200metres below the ground... the objective is to find hard ground and also fill it up with concrete and reenforced cables and steel wires.
2.) 80% of the chinese population are still in poverty are based on international standards. Most of these chinese are farmers and their annual income is only less than A$1,000 (to feed a family of 3 - 5). However, we must understand that as they are mainly farmers, they grow their own crops or the like... hence A$1,000 will be their net sales... Over the last 2 years, the new government under the new leaders, Hu Jin Tao and Wen JiaBao team has announced the giving of free education to this mass population and have seek ways to reduce their poverty.
I am seeing some of these in public media and some during my travel... but of course we still see some poor people all over the country... just as we see some people in the streets of Australia, America, Russia and many other countries asking for money.
We must learn that in every society, there are always rich and poor people, good and bad people... saint and crooks! Otherwise, than there will be no need of a police or legal system!
If u are familiar with the China Property market... the property prices have risen as much as more than 10 times over the last 7 - 8 years... with most increment in Shanghai, Beijing and some central cities of some provinces. A property agent within 15km from the financial site of Shanghai (LuJiaZhui) told me that the cost of a 3 bedrooms apartment with a build in of 130 sq metres was only 3,000RMB in 2001... now it is 34,000RMB! |
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By: jaymarcel
24/11/2009
12:11 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hey the world runs on these kind of understandings between every country, China is no different to any other country, it works to its own interest just like all the others. |
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By: communistevil
24/11/2009
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Correct ang101000. A GOOD post!
The lies which we are constantly being told are the truth by those who would have us believe that the evil and corrupt government of the P.R. of China is our friend shall soon be revealed for what they really are.
PROPOGANDA!!
Beware the lies of those who would have us all enslaved by the evil central kingdom! |
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By: ang101000
23/11/2009
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Menta,
How true; it does take two to tango!
The financial crisis has sharpened fears of what Americans often see as another potential threat. China has become the world's biggest lender to America through its purchase of American Treasury securities, which in theory would allow it to wreck the American economy. These fears ignore the value-destroying (and, for China's leaders, politically hugely embarrassing) effect that a sell-off of American debt would have on China's dollar reserves.
When Lawrence Summers was president of Harvard University (he is now Mr Obama's chief economic adviser), he once referred to a 'balance of financial terror' between America and its foreign creditors, principally China and J@pan. That was in 2004, when J@pan's holdings were more than four times the size of China's. By September 2008 China had taken the lead. China Daily, an official English-language newspaper, said in July that China's massive holdings of US Treasuries meant it could break the dollar's reserve-currency status any time. But it also noted that in effect this was a 'foreign-exchange version of the cold-war stalemate based on 'mutually assured destruction'. |
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By: ralph.montegue
23/11/2009
8:38 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Re: The Basics, (a post by our respected friend below)..
Absolutely right Dr. Xing　Li!
The P. R. of China is simply incapable of supporting itself in the abscence of demand from its most important customer, the U. S. of A.
Millions of people in the P. R. of China continue to live & die in poverty.
The domestic economy of the P. R. of China is simply far too immature and certainly as yet not sofisticated enough to stimulate internal demand anywhere near the amount required in order to support "home industry.
Unless America`s economy makes a miraculous and substantial recovery in the near future, China`s economy shall collapse in such a way that shall shock the world.
I agree that the economic outlook is indeed bleak. |
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By: daytrew
23/11/2009
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| Menta CHINESE Industrialization and Progress These technolical advances of this era,particularly as stated in the massive use now and in the future of CHINESE NUCPOWER, has caught the imagination not only the middle class Chinese but also many other World National observers who are able to ignore for the present the miseries of the Chinese urban working class and to write enthusiasticlly of the benifit to be derived from jack boot industralization. |
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By: firefly_au
23/11/2009
7:04 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Hi Menta:)
There seems to be a process going on in china that is needed to cope with large numbers of people coming in from the wilderness and being counted for the first time by the central Government.
These people need to be employed, fed and housed and the huge infrastructure required to support them needs to be constructed in the cities. I believe this is the main reason for the large stockpiles of steal and materials. Also the reason the high official GDP growth figures compared to most other nations.
The Central Government knows it will need to do this building soon and is preparing to support the continued massive increase in productive capacity and GDP growth that has been going over a decade. I expect this will continue regardless of the economic conditions in the rest of the world.
As a worst case if things fall apart in the rest of the world the Chinese will still be building anyway using force majure and forced labour if necessary......This wont happen IMO - but you never know!
BYE :) |
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By: jadeshangrila
23/11/2009
6:37 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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| Hai Menta, China will face a steel shortage next year if it goes ahead with it,s plan half a trillion dollar infrastructure project. It is just stock piling as much as it can to build the second greatest public works project in the world after the great wall of China. That may also include several long bridges, roads, railways, nuclear power station, electric grid and etc. |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
6:22 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Lasty, the figures you provided are 'projections' based on continued strong economic growth in China (that's the assumption they used for their projections).
"China has massive over capacity in steel and cement. Granted, these two materials are quite literally the building blocks of industrial society. But according to Bill Powell in Fortune Magazine, China has enough spare production capacity in the cement industry to meet annual cement demand from India, Ja pan, and the U.S....combined!
This fact would be consistent with a country that's massively over-investing in fixed assets to achieve high rates of employment. And then there's steel. China's own National Development and Reform Commission says the country will have 250 million tonnes of excess steel production capacity by the end of next year.
Chinese steel production is approaching 600 million tonnes per year. But its current demand is around 350 million tonnes. That means it's either planning to put the rest of the world's steel makers out of business by dumping cheap steel on to global markets...or there is massive overcapacity and inefficiency in the steel sector."
From; Total Implosion of the Chinese Economy
By Dan Denning. November 12th, 2009
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/implosion-chinese -economy/2009/11/12/
The figures quoted in this article are based on what's really happening in China and the implications are not good for Australia because the health of our economy is coupled to China's prosperity. |
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By: firefly_au
23/11/2009
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Hi All :)
The Chinese are a clever and adaptable people IMO.
With their virtual monopoly on Rare Earth metals needed to build these efficient and cheap electric and hybrid vehicles it is no wonder that the Chinese government has decided to not export the required REOs to allow them to dominate future Auto-mobile and power storage and generation including Solar power. I personally think the world moving to less polluting technologies is a good thing and if the clever Chinese lead the way so be it the West should have moved as far as possible away from oil by now but have not done so! So now we watch others lead the way!
But China's increasing economic and industrial power may not be so good for us unless we can find a way to adapt to the changes that are coming and turn them to our advantage. Hopefully this is just the natural trepidation of the unknown whispering to my consciousness and not a real danger but only time will tell....
BYE :) |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
23/11/2009
5:13 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"also with the Chinese coal fired technology, the carbon balance is going to be off the planet"
Really?
"Mainland China has 11 nuclear power reactors in commercial operation, nearly 20 under construction, and more about to start construction in 2009.
Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give a sixfold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 60 GWe or possibly more by 2020, and then a further three to fourfold increase to 120-160 GWe by 2030.
The country aims to become self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle." |
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By: rossnhoj
23/11/2009
5:02 pm |
Message deleted. Reason: Breach of terms of service |
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By: almurrie1@y7mail.com
23/11/2009
3:15 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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More vehicles but no increase in petrol? Because a lot of them are hybrid or electric.
www.atimes.com/atimes/Chi na_Business/KJ09Cb01.html
China's history with electric vehicles, government mandates, and new consumer trends have incentivized Chinese automakers to make electric vehicles. Recently, one of China's leading domestic manufacturers, Chery Automobile, announced the release of the S18, the first of their new S series fully electric series. Chery was founded in Wuhu city, Anhui province in 1997, and began specializing in cheap cars for the domestic market.
The company has 10 passenger car models, with its A-5 hybrid model selling for less than US$15,000. Moreover, Chery is China's first automaker to sell cars abroad, with production facilities in Russia, Iran, Malaysia, and Egypt, and with plans to enter the US and European markets in 2011. The S18 can travel between 120-150 km/h and comes equipped with a battery capable of recharging up to 80% in a half hour. Chery also produces hybrid versions of its A5, A3, and A13 models.
Shenzhen-based Build Your Dreams (BYD) was started in 1995 by Wang Chuan-Fu to produce lithium-ion rechargeable batteries, and has since moved into the market for passenger cars. In 2003, the company entered the auto business and its $14,000 F3 sedan is quickly becoming the best-selling sedan in China. With BYD's background in lithium-ion batteries and new found success in auto manufacturing, it was only a matter of time before it developed an electric vehicle. |
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By: lasty49
23/11/2009
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Menta,
Interesting about your steel projections.
My sources differ.
"Steel demand in China, the largest metal consumer, may rise 12 percent next year on booming property and auto demand, fueling gains in prices of iron ore, China International Capital Corp. said.
Domestic crude steel consumption may increase to 606 million metric tons in 2010, following a 14 percent gain this year to 541.4 million tons, Luo Wei, Shanghai-based analyst with CICC, said in a report. Benchmark contract prices for iron ore, used in steelmaking, may rise 15 percent to 20 percent, he said."
Read the rest of it here.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&si d=a9H.BNuuVENY
China's failure will be US's wishful thinking.
Most Americans still feel that China needs them.
Obama's recent visit to China was a joke.
The human rights "lecture" was laughable.
The US citizens dont know whats coming to them.
They will be fighting for a penny that their illegal immigrants were doing not so long ago.
The US custom control wont have a problem with inbound migrants. Its the outbound ones they will be stopping trying to collect as much tax as possible. |
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By: ecchi.gaijin
23/11/2009
1:05 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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"For example, car sales have nearly doubled in China while petrol consumption has hardly increased because government agencies have been told to buy cars and store them in newly constructed car parks to generate apparent growth"
Or perhaps with an improving economy more people have decided to upgrade their old rust buckets more regularly? After all we aren't talking about a country like J@pan where car owners are "forced" to replace cars regularly. |
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By: mentawaisurf
23/11/2009
12:55 pm Yahoo! Profile:
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Ang, we all know that the US economy is screwed, and along with it the financial system, global trade & economies world-wide. Many around the world have hitched their hopes to China to pull their economy into recovery, especially Australia. But they under-estimate the reliance of China on the US and the west and more crucially fail to 'see' what is 'really' happening in China.
The Chinese economy has become a "paper dragon" that's been dangerously overstimulated with the building of shopping malls, luxury stores and infrastructure for which there is no demand. The result is China's system is "teetering towards collapse".
The 'official' growth figures for the world's largest emerging economy just don't add up either. For example, car sales have nearly doubled in China while petrol consumption has hardly increased because government agencies have been told to buy cars and store them in newly constructed car parks to generate apparent growth. Overcapacity of cement production has reached 340 million tonnes - more than the consumption of the US, India and Ja pan combined. China's steel production is currently approaching 600 million tonnes a year but demand is only 350 million tonnes. That means China is either going to dump cheap steel onto global markets to kill competition, or there's massive overcapacity in the sector. The implications are not good for Australia because the health of our economy is coupled to China's prosperity.
And there's another major risk in the China story; the World Bank warns that a stockmarket bubble combined with a property bubble, due to record government stimulus and bank liquidity, could derail China's recovery.
All this economic activity isn't building 'real' wealth, at least not in a sustainable manner. Pivot Capital Management recently declared that the industrialisation and structural modernisation of China is reaching overcapacity.
This chapter of the China story is heading for a shock ending. (Excerpts: The Week). |
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By: jaymarcel
23/11/2009
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China has proved for a while now & is still proving that it does not require the USA consumer any longer.
With its own current growth it can support itself as a growing nation, just like the USA did in its growing & booming past, hopefully one day Australia will do the same we just don't have the population growth. |
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